Colorado
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #73
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #68
Pace 72.0 #100
Improvement +0.3 #165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #59 A- C B+ A B-
Defense #114 C+ C+ D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #17 1.25 #86 +7.0 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #192 0.89 #38 +1.0 #121
Three Pointers 34% #319 1.14 #36 -1.6 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #33 +6.4 #35
Freethrows 20.4 #40 79% #15 16.2 #14
Second Chance 33.4% #110 0.94 #293 0.31 #177
Turnovers 14.3% #51
Total Offense +6.0 #59

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.05 #58 +0.9 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #70 0.79 #236 -1.9 #316
Three Pointers 35% #330 1.02 #200 +3.1 #65
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #114 +2.0 #114
Freethrows 14.5 #45 73% #180 10.5 #308
Second Chance 27.2% #70 1.09 #253 0.30 #129
Turnovers 15.4% #251
Total Defense +1.7 #114

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #86 -0.7% #111
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.9% #35 -3.3% #124
Possession Length 16.0 #61 17.6 #239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #19 0.15 #117
Improvement -3.0 #333 +3.3 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 19.4% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.1% 19.3% 7.2%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.1
.500 or above 77.6% 91.1% 71.2%
.500 or above in Conference 20.9% 36.4% 13.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 1.4% 6.6%
First Four4.6% 7.3% 3.3%
First Round8.4% 14.9% 5.3%
Second Round2.8% 5.4% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 9
Quad 25 - 57 - 14
Quad 35 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 161 Montana St. W 84 - 78 85% +1  1 - 0 +3 +11 A C- B -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 255 Eastern Washington W 102 - 97 OT 93% +1  2 - 0 -3 +12 B D- A+ -16 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 68 Providence W 97 - 88 60% +4  3 - 0 +14 +12 B+ A+ B +1 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 17 306 Alabama St. W 94 - 66 95% +19  4 - 0 +17 +14 A- C B +3 B C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 188 UC Davis W 95 - 79 88% +6  5 - 0 +11 +19 A+ B- A- -8 B- F C
 Thu, Nov 27 103 San Francisco W 79 - 69 61% +1  6 - 0 +15 +11 A+ C A +4 C- B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 46 Washington W 81 - 68 37% +9  7 - 0 +24 +15 A A- C+ +10 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 1 157 California Baptist W 78 - 70 84% -2  8 - 0 +5 +7 B- B C+ -2 B A- D
 Sat, Dec 6 97 @Colorado St. L 86 - 91 48% -4  8 - 1 +3 +17 A+ D A+ -14 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 332 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 64 97% +10  9 - 1 +10 +8 A+ F C +1 D+ C- A-
 Wed, Dec 17 145 Portland St. W 84 - 73 82% +1  10 - 1 +9 +11 A- C- C -2 A F C
 Sat, Dec 20 77 Stanford L 68 - 77 52% -3  10 - 2 -2 -1 B- C F -1 A C D-
 Sun, Dec 28 174 Northern Colorado L 81 - 86 86% -2  10 - 3 -9 +1 D D+ A+ -10 F C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 82 @Arizona St. W 95 - 89 42% +6  11 - 3 1 - 0 +16 +13 B+ B B- +2 B+ B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 113 Utah W 85 - 73 75% +6  12 - 3 2 - 0 +13 +11 B C C +2 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 21 Texas Tech L 71 - 73 30% -9  12 - 4 2 - 1 +11 +6 C D+ A+ +6 B+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 56 @Cincinnati L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Jan 17 59 @West Virginia L 71 - 75 34%
 Tue, Jan 20 18 Kansas L 75 - 81 27%
 Sat, Jan 24 50 Central Florida W 83 - 82 52%
 Thu, Jan 29 6 @Iowa St. L 69 - 85 6%
 Sun, Feb 1 45 TCU L 76 - 77 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 37 @Baylor L 76 - 85 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 82 Arizona St. W 83 - 79 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 21 @Texas Tech L 73 - 84 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 11 @BYU L 74 - 89 8%
 Sat, Feb 21 62 Oklahoma St. W 87 - 85 57%
 Wed, Feb 25 74 Kansas St. W 86 - 83 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 5 @Houston L 63 - 79 7%
 Tue, Mar 3 113 @Utah W 81 - 80 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 2 Arizona L 75 - 88 11%
Totals 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8 +6 A- C B+ +2 C+ C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.9 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 4.1 1.9 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.9 3.8 0.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.1 3.6 6.8 1.4 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 8.0 3.1 0.2 12.7 10th
11th 0.4 5.9 6.3 0.6 13.1 11th
12th 0.1 2.4 7.4 1.9 0.0 12.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 5.4 3.3 0.2 9.8 13th
14th 0.3 3.0 3.9 0.5 0.0 7.7 14th
15th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.9 15th
16th 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 16th
Total 0.4 2.3 7.2 13.0 18.7 20.5 16.9 11.2 5.9 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 9.1% 0.0    0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 98.0% 98.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0%
12-6 0.9% 90.9% 90.9% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.9%
11-7 2.7% 75.9% 0.2% 75.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.7 75.8%
10-8 5.9% 54.7% 0.1% 54.6% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 2.7 54.7%
9-9 11.2% 30.4% 0.0% 30.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 0.0 7.8 30.4%
8-10 16.9% 6.7% 0.1% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 15.8 6.7%
7-11 20.5% 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 20.3 1.1%
6-12 18.7% 0.1% 0.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 18.7 0.1%
5-13 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 13.0 0.0%
4-14 7.2% 7.2
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 0.0% 11.1% 10.0 88.8 11.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%