East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#137
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#155
Pace64.8#303
Improvement+2.0#45

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#151
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#313
Layup/Dunks+5.3#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#294
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+1.2#68

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#124
First Shot-0.5#182
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#75
Layups/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#264
Freethrows-2.5#311
Improvement+0.8#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 31.8% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 96.2% 97.1% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 95.3% 91.0%
Conference Champion 44.0% 45.6% 31.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round30.8% 31.6% 24.4%
Second Round2.5% 2.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 45 - 6
Quad 417 - 422 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 275 @Presbyterian L 64-68 68%     0 - 1 -7.2 -3.8 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 12 198 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 75%     1 - 1 +6.6 -2.6 +8.8
  Sat, Nov 15 242 @North Alabama W 78-74 62%     2 - 1 +2.4 +5.9 -3.4
  Fri, Nov 21 310 Morehead St. W 77-62 88%     3 - 1 +4.0 +4.3 +0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 361 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 95%     4 - 1 +24.9 +16.9 +8.5
  Sat, Nov 29 317 Central Arkansas W 76-63 89%    
  Tue, Dec 2 78 @Dayton L 63-72 20%    
  Fri, Dec 5 180 South Alabama W 69-63 71%    
  Fri, Dec 12 165 @Austin Peay L 68-69 48%    
  Tue, Dec 16 26 @North Carolina L 66-82 8%    
  Sat, Dec 20 222 Jacksonville St. W 68-60 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 358 @The Citadel W 76-64 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 206 Mercer W 79-71 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 342 VMI W 79-63 92%    
  Sat, Jan 10 287 UNC Greensboro W 76-65 85%    
  Wed, Jan 14 278 @Western Carolina W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 221 @Samford W 73-71 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 188 @Chattanooga W 71-70 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 358 The Citadel W 79-61 95%    
  Thu, Jan 29 278 Western Carolina W 77-66 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 225 @Wofford W 74-72 59%    
  Wed, Feb 4 160 Furman W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 342 @VMI W 76-66 80%    
  Wed, Feb 11 188 Chattanooga W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 221 Samford W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Feb 18 160 @Furman L 68-69 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 287 @UNC Greensboro W 73-68 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 225 Wofford W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 206 @Mercer W 76-74 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.8 9.8 11.8 9.3 5.3 1.8 44.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.5 7.9 4.9 1.8 0.2 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.6 5.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.3 12.9 14.5 15.0 13.6 9.5 5.3 1.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 5.3    5.3 0.1
16-2 98.3% 9.3    8.7 0.6
15-3 86.6% 11.8    9.3 2.4 0.1
14-4 65.5% 9.8    5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 32.9% 4.8    1.7 2.1 0.9 0.1
12-6 9.0% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.0% 44.0 32.5 9.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 61.6% 61.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7
17-1 5.3% 56.3% 56.3% 12.7 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3
16-2 9.5% 49.1% 49.1% 13.1 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.8
15-3 13.6% 43.7% 43.7% 13.5 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.7
14-4 15.0% 38.2% 38.2% 13.9 0.2 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.1 9.2
13-5 14.5% 28.2% 28.2% 14.2 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.2 10.4
12-6 12.9% 24.1% 24.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 9.8
11-7 10.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.3 8.5
10-8 7.4% 13.5% 13.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 6.4
9-9 4.6% 7.4% 7.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.3
8-10 2.6% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.4
7-11 1.4% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 31.0% 31.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 8.8 10.4 6.4 1.6 69.0 0.0%