East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +1.5 135
Results Rating -0.4 164
Consistency 0.15 179
Pace 65.9 251
Improvement -1.8 256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 150 C+ C- C+ B- C+
Defense C 147 C- C+ B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 C+ 60% 115 +3.7 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 122 B- 41% 70 +0.3 157
Three Pointers 37% 270 D+ 32% 259 -3.1 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 118 C +0.5 150
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 143
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 282 B 1.12 62 C- 0.30 205
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 127
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 179
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 140
Freethrows C+ 0.32 144 B 76% 60 B- 0.24 104
Total Offense C +0.7 150

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 130 B- 8.9% 69
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 319 C 4.9% 181
Three Pointers C+ 86% 146 C- 1.1% 239
Total C- 54% 215 C+ 5.2% 133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 209 D+ 61% 267 +0.7 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 330 B+ 33% 27 -2.6 14
Three Pointers 47% 36 C- 35% 213 +3.4 320
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 271 C- +0.8 214
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 227
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 150 B- 0.98 97 C+ 0.29 110
Turnovers from Steals A- 12.9% 14
Other Turnovers D- 5.9% 341
Turnovers B 18.9% 63
Freethrows C+ 0.29 159 D 75% 308 C 0.22 180
Total Defense C +0.8 147

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 179 C 11.1% 169
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 174 B 7.4% 55
Three Pointers D+ 87% 276 C 0.9% 151
Total D+ 60% 278 C 5.8% 160

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 268 17.0 132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 198 0.20 291
Consistency 0.10 42 0.12 198
Improvement -1.1 243 -0.7 225

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 153 138 123
Results Rating Rank 193 164 124
Conference Record 13 - 5 13 - 5 14 - 4
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35% 37% 34%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round35% 37% 34%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 24 - 4
Quad 417 - 621 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 271 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 68% -2  33% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A D- C -1 C F A
 Wed, Nov 12 191 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 73% +8  98% 1 - 1 B- +7 D+ -4 A+ F F A +11 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 342 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 84% -8  8% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -0 B F A D+ -5 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 21 279 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 85% +2  47% 3 - 1 B- +5 C +0 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 353 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95% +20  97% 4 - 1 A+ +24 A +13 A A- B- A+ +12 A+ C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 173 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 70% +10  84% 5 - 1 A +19 C +0 A F A+ A+ +18 A+ B B
 Tue, Dec 2 77 @Dayton L 71 - 88 19% -10  17% 5 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 B B- F D+ -5 F B B+
 Fri, Dec 5 185 South Alabama W 91 - 65 72% +5  53% 6 - 2 A +21 A+ +16 C A+ A+ B+ +6 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 167 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 46% -6  1% 6 - 3 C +2 C +2 C+ D C+ C +0 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 26 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 7% -10  3% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D+ B- B+ C- -3 C- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 194 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 73% -1  45% 6 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ F -20 F C- B
 Tue, Dec 30 349 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 87% +13  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ B- D A+ +16 A- D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 181 Mercer W 77 - 71 71% +1  50% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C +2 C +1 F A+ C- C+ +1 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 359 VMI W 81 - 67 96% +10  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 B- D B- D+ -4 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 298 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 88% +10  88% 10 - 5 4 - 0 A- +15 C- -0 A- F+ B A+ +15 A+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 244 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 62% +0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 D F A+ D+ -3 F C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 195 @Samford W 76 - 75 52% +5  96% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A- C A- F -10 F B- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 282 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 70% +2  72% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C- -3 F+ -8 F A- D+ B+ +5 D A A
 Fri, Jan 23 349 The Citadel W 84 - 55 94% +18  89% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 B A- B A- +7 C A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 244 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 81% -9  0% 13 - 7 7 - 2 D -10 B+ +8 C+ C A+ F -18 F F C-
 Sun, Feb 1 229 @Wofford W 86 - 72 59% +5  90% 14 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +13 A +14 F+ A+ A+ C -0 C- D C+
 Wed, Feb 4 171 Furman W 75 - 71 OT 70% -5  10% 15 - 7 9 - 2 C +0 D+ -4 C+ F B B +4 F B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 359 @VMI W 87 - 70 91% +10  91% 16 - 7 10 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- A- F C+ +1 D- C- C
 Wed, Feb 11 282 Chattanooga W 73 - 61 86% +4  82% 17 - 7 11 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -4 F D- A+ B+ +6 A C- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 195 Samford L 72 - 82 OT 73% -2  22% 17 - 8 11 - 3 F+ -15 F -13 F+ D+ D- C- -2 A F C
 Wed, Feb 18 171 @Furman W 78 - 69 48% +3  66% 18 - 8 12 - 3 B +11 B +7 A F D B +4 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 298 @UNC Greensboro W 87 - 75 74% +4  75% 19 - 8 13 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 A+ C F C- -2 F F+ A-
 Wed, Feb 25 229 Wofford L 69 - 72 79% +0  45% 19 - 9 13 - 4 D -10 F+ -9 B- F+ D- C -1 B D- F
 Sat, Feb 28 181 @Mercer L 76 - 77 49%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1 C +1 C C C+ C +1 D+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ B- D+ C 43% 42% 37% C+ C+ D+ B C- C+ C+ B B- C D+ B+ C- C- 38% 16% 47% D+ C- C+ B- C+ B C+ D C
1.10 60% 41% 32% 0 0 1.04 27% 1.1 .30 16% .32 76% .24 1.07 61% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.05 30% 1.0 .29 19% .29 75% .24
Nov
8		 Presbyterian D- D- A F F 38% 17% 45% C- F B A A D- A+ A A+ C B+ A+ F+ B- 45% 15% 40% F C D- F F A F D- F
0.99 50% 50% 14% -14 0 0.74 36% 1.2 .44 19% .40 76% .30 1.05 50% 17% 38% -5 +1 0.95 37% 1.3 .47 25% .53 73% .39
Nov
12		 Northern Kentucky D+ B A+ A+ A 67% 12% 21% A+ A+ F F F F A+ C A+ A B- A- A B+ 38% 13% 49% C B+ D- A+ A+ A+ B C- B-
1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35 0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18
Nov
15		 North Alabama C- A+ A- C B+ 35% 18% 47% D B F F F A F+ F F D+ C+ A+ F+ D- 41% 13% 46% D+ D- D+ F F B F+ F F
1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13 1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31
Nov
21		 Morehead St. C C+ A F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ B+ C- B- C+ A+ B A+ B+ F+ C D F+ 31% 33% 36% A- D C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45 0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36
Nov
23		 Louisiana Monroe A A+ A- A+ A 43% 17% 40% C A B- A A- B- F A+ D- A+ C A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C+ A+ B D- C+ B- A- F+ B
1.40 76% 50% 43% +15 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14 0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20
Nov
29		 Central Arkansas C A+ B- A- A 35% 9% 56% B- A F D- F A+ C- F F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 13% 70% B A+ A+ F B B A+ D- A+
1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13 0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
2		 Dayton C- B B B- B+ 37% 24% 39% C B B+ D+ B- F C- A+ C+ D+ F F B- F 42% 16% 42% C+ F F+ A+ B B+ F D F
0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23 1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48
Dec
5		 South Alabama A+ C- F D+ C- 36% 7% 57% B C A- A+ A+ A+ F B F+ B+ A- A+ F D 46% 8% 46% F D- A- A+ A+ B+ B- A+ B+
1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12 0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16
Dec
12		 Austin Peay C B B+ C- C+ 41% 16% 43% C+ C+ D D D C+ F+ A D+ C C+ F D+ D 39% 12% 49% D D- D A+ A+ C- C+ F D
1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19 1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25
Dec
16		 North Carolina C- C F F+ D+ 28% 26% 46% C D+ F+ A+ B- B+ A C- A C- F B+ C+ C 39% 7% 55% F+ C- B+ F D+ C- F B D
0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28
Dec
20		 Jacksonville St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% D+ A+ F+ A- D+ D+ A+ B- A+ F D F F F 45% 5% 50% D- F F A+ C- B F B- F
1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45 1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36
Dec
30		 The Citadel C+ C- D B- D 51% 13% 36% B- D+ C+ B- B- D A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A 24% 11% 64% C- A- D D+ D A+ C- B+ C
1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31 0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17
Jan
3		 Mercer C F A+ F F 58% 7% 35% A+ F A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A A+ C+ F A- B- C- 38% 13% 48% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ B+ B- B- B-
1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42 1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22
Jan
7		 VMI C- B+ A+ B- B- 43% 23% 34% C B- F A+ D B- B- A- B+ D+ C F+ A C- 42% 13% 44% D C- D+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27 1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 UNC Greensboro C- A+ C D+ B+ 53% 17% 30% A- A- F A+ F+ B F B F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F+ A+ F B D A+ F F+ F
1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09 0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37
Jan
14		 Western Carolina D+ C F D+ D- 44% 14% 42% B+ D C+ F F A+ A C- A- D+ D+ F D F 36% 17% 47% C- F D- A- C+ A B D B-
1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29 1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18
Jan
17		 Samford A A+ C A+ A 31% 44% 24% F A- F A+ C A- B- A+ A F A- F F F 24% 16% 60% C+ F B+ D B- F+ A+ F B+
1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30 1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20
Jan
21		 Chattanooga F+ D B+ F F 52% 13% 35% A- F C+ A+ A- D+ F C+ F B+ B- F C- C- 41% 6% 53% F D C+ A+ A A A- F B-
1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14 0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
23		 The Citadel B+ A+ A+ B- B+ 37% 8% 55% C+ B D+ A+ A- B C+ C+ C+ A- A+ A+ F C 31% 16% 53% C C A+ A- A+ D C- A+ A
1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21 0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11
Jan
29		 Western Carolina B+ C+ A+ C C+ 40% 20% 40% C+ C+ C- B C A+ A+ B A+ F F A+ D- F 33% 15% 52% C- F D+ F F C- F D F
1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45 1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Wofford A D F D- F 59% 14% 27% B+ F+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F B+ C+ 58% 8% 34% F C- A F D C+ B F C
1.32 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.94 38% 1.7 .66 9% .47 93% .44 1.11 52% 75% 29% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
4		 Furman D+ C- F A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C C+ F+ F F B A+ C+ A B F F C+ F 45% 9% 47% D- F B+ B B+ A+ A A A+
1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25 0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12
Feb
7		 VMI C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% F A- C+ A+ A- F D A+ C C+ B F C- D- 39% 6% 56% F D- A F C- C C+ B- C+
1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22 0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 Chattanooga D+ F F F+ F 47% 17% 36% B- F F B- D- A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A A+ B+ A+ 37% 16% 47% D- A B+ F C- C- B+ F B-
1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43 0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18
Feb
14		 Samford F F+ B+ F F 42% 24% 35% B F+ D- B+ D+ D- B+ B- A- C- B+ A+ A A+ 36% 15% 49% D A B- F F C F F F
0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27 1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48
Feb
18		 Furman B F B A+ A 41% 18% 41% B- A C F F D A B- A B D F+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B- A+ D+ B+ C+ F F F+ F
1.14 43% 44% 52% +6 +1 1.16 30% 0.5 .16 16% .33 74% .24 1.01 67% 50% 17% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 13% .47 75% .35
Feb
21		 UNC Greensboro A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% C- A+ D- A C F C- A+ B- C- F B D F 33% 26% 41% B- F D+ F F+ A- A B- A
1.30 78% 58% 45% +19 -1 1.38 25% 1.3 .33 18% .26 86% .22 1.12 87% 33% 37% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.3 .36 19% .28 67% .19
Feb
25		 Wofford F+ A+ C- F B- 55% 18% 27% C+ B- D+ F F+ D- A+ F C+ C C- A+ B+ B 39% 17% 44% C+ B C+ F D- F B- F+ C
1.04 79% 38% 17% +4 +1 1.14 26% 0.9 .22 18% .40 59% .24 1.08 57% 22% 29% -6 +1 0.91 26% 1.3 .34 9% .30 78% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 50.9 49.1 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 50.9 49.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 49.1    49.1
13-5 100.0% 50.9    50.9
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 49.1% 37.2% 37.2% 13.7 0.4 6.1 10.3 1.4 0.0 30.8
13-5 50.9% 33.5% 33.5% 14.2 0.0 1.7 10.0 5.3 0.1 33.8
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.3% 35.3% 0.0% 14.0 64.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.3% 100.0% 13.7 2.0 33.6 56.6 7.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.0%
Lose Out 9.0%