East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 #119
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #173
Pace 66.5 #245
Improvement +2.0 #80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #124 C+ C C B- B
Defense #128 C- B+ A- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #24 1.23 #104 +5.8 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.85 #67 +0.1 #173
Three Pointers 36% #289 0.95 #260 -3.8 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #126 +2.1 #125
Freethrows 18.5 #126 75% #113 13.8 #110
Second Chance 26.7% #292 1.17 #45 0.31 #182
Turnovers 16.5% #170
Total Offense +1.4 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.24 #281 -0.4 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #325 0.64 #36 +2.8 #13
Three Pointers 48% #28 1.03 #213 -4.0 #326
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #238 -1.5 #238
Freethrows 17.7 #207 77% #346 13.7 #105
Second Chance 30.9% #188 0.83 #9 0.26 #44
Turnovers 20.0% #30
Total Defense +1.3 #128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #75 1.0% #263
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.3% #146 2.1% #222
Possession Length 17.9 #234 17.1 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #195 0.19 #243
Improvement +0.6 #138 +1.4 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.8% 37.3% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 66.8% 72.2% 50.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round35.8% 37.3% 31.3%
Second Round2.4% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 418 - 422 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 292 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 76% -2  0 - 1 -9 -5 F A+ F -4 C- F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 179 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 75% +8  1 - 1 +8 -3 A+ F F +10 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 279 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 73% -8  2 - 1 +0 +5 A F A+ -5 D- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 304 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 90% +2  3 - 1 +4 +4 F B B- +0 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 354 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95% +20  4 - 1 +26 +16 A+ A C +10 A+ C B-
 Sat, Nov 29 265 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 86% +10  5 - 1 +14 +1 A+ F A +12 A+ B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 70 @Dayton L 71 - 88 21% -10  5 - 2 -6 +2 B B- F -7 F C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 5 190 South Alabama W 91 - 65 76% +5  6 - 2 +21 +19 C A+ A+ +3 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 180 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 55% -6  6 - 3 +0 +6 B D- A- -5 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 29 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 9% -10  6 - 4 -1 +2 D+ B A- -6 D C- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 203 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 78% -1  6 - 5 -11 +10 A+ D+ D -22 F C B-
 Tue, Dec 30 358 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 91% +13  7 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +1 C- C F +15 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 153 Mercer W 77 - 71 70% +1  8 - 5 2 - 0 +3 +5 F A+ C- -1 C A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 339 VMI W 81 - 67 93% +10  9 - 5 3 - 0 -0 +5 B+ D- B+ -4 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 288 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 88% +10  10 - 5 4 - 0 +16 +4 A F B- +11 A+ C- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 291 @Western Carolina W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Jan 17 240 @Samford W 76 - 72 65%
 Wed, Jan 21 267 @Chattanooga W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Jan 24 358 The Citadel W 82 - 61 97%
 Thu, Jan 29 291 Western Carolina W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Jan 31 228 @Wofford W 77 - 74 62%
 Wed, Feb 4 147 Furman W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 339 @VMI W 79 - 68 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 267 Chattanooga W 78 - 66 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 240 Samford W 79 - 69 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 147 @Furman L 70 - 71 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 288 @UNC Greensboro W 78 - 71 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 228 Wofford W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 153 @Mercer L 77 - 78 48%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +3 +1 C+ C C +1 C- B+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.4 13.9 19.5 16.2 8.6 2.5 66.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.7 5.8 1.2 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 8.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.9 9.3 14.9 20.0 20.8 16.2 8.6 2.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 100.0% 8.6    8.6
16-2 99.8% 16.2    15.6 0.6
15-3 94.1% 19.5    15.8 3.6 0.1
14-4 69.5% 13.9    8.0 5.1 0.8 0.0
13-5 35.9% 5.4    1.6 2.5 1.1 0.1
12-6 9.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.8% 66.8 52.2 12.0 2.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 56.3% 56.3% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.1
17-1 8.6% 49.6% 49.6% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.3
16-2 16.2% 44.7% 44.7% 13.4 0.5 3.5 3.0 0.3 9.0
15-3 20.8% 40.1% 40.1% 13.8 0.1 2.5 4.7 1.0 12.4
14-4 20.0% 34.3% 34.3% 14.1 0.0 1.3 3.8 1.7 0.0 13.1
13-5 14.9% 28.7% 28.7% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.1 10.6
12-6 9.3% 22.5% 22.5% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.1 7.2
11-7 4.9% 19.7% 19.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 3.9
10-8 2.0% 15.8% 15.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7
9-9 0.7% 15.6% 15.6% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.6
8-10 0.2% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.8% 35.8% 0.0% 13.8 64.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.0 16.3 69.9 13.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%