Fordham
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #183
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #262
Pace 62.9 #334
Improvement +4.7 #13

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #224 C- C D+ F C
Defense #152 B- B- D A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #159 1.13 #213 -0.3 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #138 0.90 #31 +2.4 #66
Three Pointers 39% #232 0.85 #340 -4.4 #317
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #238 -2.3 #239
Freethrows 13.1 #343 68% #304 9.0 #349
Second Chance 35.5% #55 0.94 #298 0.33 #146
Turnovers 17.8% #253
Total Offense -1.9 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.14 #146 +2.6 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #71 0.64 #41 -0.2 #192
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.01 #190 +0.1 #173
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #99 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 12.8 #21 74% #256 9.5 #341
Second Chance 27.4% #75 1.06 #204 0.29 #106
Turnovers 14.5% #306
Total Defense +0.4 #152

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #224 -1.6% #60
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #234 -3.4% #119
Possession Length 19.4 #348 17.1 #156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #212 0.14 #84
Improvement +2.4 #53 +2.3 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 13.9
.500 or above 18.1% 42.5% 17.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 35.1% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 4.8% 14.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 48 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 352 NJIT L 61 - 72 91% -5  0 - 1 -27 -13 F C B -15 F B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 316 Wagner W 63 - 61 84% -2  1 - 1 -10 -6 F C+ B- -4 A D- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 198 @Iona L 71 - 76 41% +0  1 - 2 -4 +0 F A+ C- -5 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 219 LIU Brooklyn W 69 - 53 67% +11  2 - 2 +10 -3 B F B+ +14 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 309 Albany W 88 - 68 75% +11  3 - 2 +11 +13 A A+ F -1 A D+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 215 Colgate L 62 - 72 55% -9  3 - 3 -13 -8 F C F -6 D+ B C
 Sat, Dec 6 310 Holy Cross L 69 - 70 83% +7  3 - 4 -13 -3 D+ C+ C- -10 C- F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 54 91% +11  4 - 4 +5 -0 C- B F +7 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 312 Manhattan W 82 - 53 83% +11  5 - 4 +17 +7 B+ C D- +12 A+ C+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 340 New Haven W 65 - 47 88% +5  6 - 4 +4 -5 C B+ F +10 B- A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 70 @Dayton L 56 - 63 12% -5  6 - 5 0 - 1 +4 -3 D- D+ C +6 A+ F D
 Sun, Jan 4 116 Richmond L 75 - 83 44% -2  6 - 6 0 - 2 -8 +8 C+ A F -17 D D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 86 George Mason L 58 - 67 31% -1  6 - 7 0 - 3 -5 -8 F C- B- +1 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 127 @St. Bonaventure W 81 - 77 27% +2  7 - 7 1 - 3 +9 +13 A+ F B -4 D+ D C+
 Wed, Jan 14 32 @Saint Louis L 64 - 83 4%
 Sat, Jan 17 132 Duquesne L 73 - 74 50%
 Wed, Jan 21 149 @Davidson L 63 - 68 31%
 Wed, Jan 28 208 La Salle W 69 - 65 66%
 Sat, Jan 31 60 @George Washington L 68 - 82 11%
 Tue, Feb 3 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 77 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 127 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 70 48%
 Tue, Feb 10 175 @Saint Joseph's L 66 - 69 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 123 @Rhode Island L 63 - 70 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 259 Loyola Chicago W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 149 Davidson W 66 - 65 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 65 - 80 8%
 Wed, Mar 4 208 @La Salle L 66 - 68 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 123 Rhode Island L 66 - 67 46%
Totals 12 - 16 6 - 12 -2 -2 C- C D+ +0 B- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.8 4.2 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.3 4.1 5.2 0.8 0.1 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.4 7.0 2.2 0.1 11.7 9th
10th 1.1 7.2 4.5 0.3 0.0 13.0 10th
11th 0.4 5.5 7.3 0.9 0.0 14.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.7 7.8 2.2 0.1 14.0 12th
13th 0.3 2.6 6.5 3.1 0.1 12.6 13th
14th 0.4 1.8 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 14th
Total 0.4 2.0 5.8 12.2 17.6 19.5 17.4 12.9 7.3 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 7.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 7.3% 0.8% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
8-10 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8
7-11 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 17.4
6-12 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 19.5
5-13 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.6
4-14 12.2% 12.2
3-15 5.8% 5.8
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.9 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%