Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#160
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#175
Pace64.9#300
Improvement+4.3#5

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#154
First Shot+1.6#129
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#268
Layup/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#71
Freethrows-4.4#355
Improvement+3.2#6

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#188
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#197
Layups/Dunks-0.8#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#125
Freethrows+2.4#53
Improvement+1.0#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 23.2% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 78.9% 89.3% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 91.2% 85.1%
Conference Champion 25.8% 31.6% 23.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round18.9% 22.9% 17.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Neutral) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 86 High Point L 71-97 25%     0 - 1 -19.6 -4.4 -14.0
  Fri, Nov 7 131 Troy L 61-64 52%     0 - 2 -4.0 -10.1 +6.1
  Fri, Nov 14 90 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 19%     0 - 3 -7.1 -6.8 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 23 210 Queens W 90-79 70%     1 - 3 +5.0 +20.4 -14.2
  Thu, Nov 27 115 Richmond W 73-72 36%     2 - 3 +4.2 +1.9 +2.3
  Fri, Nov 28 102 Illinois St. L 68-73 31%    
  Wed, Dec 3 190 @Elon L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Dec 6 179 Harvard W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Dec 18 318 @Manhattan W 79-74 68%    
  Sun, Dec 21 282 Charleston Southern W 77-68 80%    
  Wed, Dec 31 206 Mercer W 79-74 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 278 Western Carolina W 77-68 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 188 @Chattanooga L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 342 VMI W 79-65 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 221 @Samford W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 225 Wofford W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Jan 21 358 @The Citadel W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 287 @UNC Greensboro W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 221 Samford W 76-70 71%    
  Sun, Feb 1 188 Chattanooga W 74-70 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 137 @East Tennessee St. L 66-71 32%    
  Sun, Feb 8 287 UNC Greensboro W 76-67 79%    
  Wed, Feb 11 206 @Mercer L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 342 @VMI W 76-68 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 137 East Tennessee St. W 69-68 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 225 @Wofford W 74-73 52%    
  Wed, Feb 25 358 The Citadel W 79-63 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 278 @Western Carolina W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.7 6.5 6.9 4.9 2.1 0.6 25.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 5.6 7.7 4.6 1.3 0.2 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.9 6.1 2.2 0.4 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.6 1.3 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.7 8.0 10.7 13.0 14.1 13.7 11.5 8.1 5.1 2.1 0.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 96.3% 4.9    4.5 0.4
15-3 84.4% 6.9    5.1 1.7 0.1
14-4 56.4% 6.5    3.8 2.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 27.2% 3.7    1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1
12-6 7.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 17.2 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 58.4% 58.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.1% 45.9% 45.9% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.1
16-2 5.1% 44.2% 44.2% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.8
15-3 8.1% 35.6% 35.6% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.2
14-4 11.5% 27.3% 27.3% 14.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 8.4
13-5 13.7% 23.9% 23.9% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 10.4
12-6 14.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 11.6
11-7 13.0% 14.5% 14.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 11.1
10-8 10.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 9.8
9-9 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.4
8-10 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.4
7-11 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.3% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.0 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.3 5.7 2.5 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.3 14.8 18.5 18.5 25.9 14.8 7.4