Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #147
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #132
Pace 66.3 #257
Improvement +1.6 #101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #171 B- C- D- D B
Defense #138 B C D+ A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #189 1.31 #48 +2.4 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #324 0.88 #42 -2.5 #303
Three Pointers 49% #31 0.96 #248 +3.0 #89
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #95 +2.9 #101
Freethrows 16.2 #251 68% #310 11.0 #284
Second Chance 30.9% #175 0.93 #304 0.29 #251
Turnovers 19.1% #320
Total Offense -0.1 #171

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 1.08 #89 +3.4 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #54 0.77 #203 -2.0 #324
Three Pointers 40% #220 0.94 #96 +2.0 #107
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #72 +3.4 #73
Freethrows 12.5 #14 73% #208 9.1 #350
Second Chance 30.9% #187 1.07 #227 0.33 #209
Turnovers 14.9% #282
Total Defense +0.8 #138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #63 -1.7% #57
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #121 -5.1% #87
Possession Length 17.2 #168 17.8 #262
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #94 0.19 #255
Improvement -0.2 #199 +1.9 #77

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 25.6% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 98.9% 99.7% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.3% 95.8%
Conference Champion 27.4% 34.6% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round23.4% 25.6% 20.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 58.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 415 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 87 High Point L 71 - 97 28% -17  0 - 1 -19 -4 C+ D- F -14 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 7 125 Troy L 61 - 64 57% -7  0 - 2 -4 -11 D+ D- F +7 A- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 107 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 27% -10  0 - 3 -9 -6 D D+ D- -4 C B F
 Sun, Nov 23 202 Queens W 90 - 79 72% +11  1 - 3 +6 +20 A+ F A+ -13 B F F
 Thu, Nov 27 116 Richmond W 73 - 72 41% +6  2 - 3 +4 +1 B A+ F +3 B C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 91 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 30% -4  2 - 4 -1 -1 A- F F -0 A- F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 169 @Elon W 97 - 88 44% -1  3 - 4 +11 +19 A D- A+ -8 B+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 162 Harvard W 79 - 69 65% +7  4 - 4 +7 +7 A+ A- F -0 B- A- F
 Thu, Dec 18 312 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 74% +2  5 - 4 +1 -3 C D F +4 B- D+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 217 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 74% +6  6 - 4 +2 +4 B- B- C+ -3 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 31 153 Mercer W 74 - 72 63% +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -1 +1 B+ D- B- -2 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 291 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 85% -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -13 -2 C- D- B- -11 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 7 267 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 64% +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +8 +4 C- C+ C- +4 C C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 VMI W 69 - 48 91% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +7 -7 D B+ F +15 A+ C- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 240 @Samford W 74 - 72 59%
 Sat, Jan 17 228 Wofford W 78 - 71 76%
 Wed, Jan 21 358 @The Citadel W 78 - 65 88%
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @UNC Greensboro W 76 - 71 68%
 Thu, Jan 29 240 Samford W 77 - 69 78%
 Sun, Feb 1 267 Chattanooga W 76 - 66 81%
 Wed, Feb 4 119 @East Tennessee St. L 68 - 73 33%
 Sun, Feb 8 288 UNC Greensboro W 79 - 68 85%
 Wed, Feb 11 153 @Mercer L 75 - 78 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 339 @VMI W 77 - 68 79%
 Wed, Feb 18 119 East Tennessee St. W 71 - 70 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 228 @Wofford W 75 - 74 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 358 The Citadel W 81 - 62 96%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 @Western Carolina W 77 - 72 69%
Totals 19 - 9 13 - 5 +1 +0 B- C- D- +1 B C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.9 8.5 9.0 4.4 1.0 27.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.1 12.4 8.2 1.9 0.1 32.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.7 8.3 4.1 0.6 21.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.0 7.8 13.6 18.4 20.5 17.2 10.9 4.5 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
16-2 97.9% 4.4    4.0 0.4
15-3 82.4% 9.0    6.4 2.5 0.1
14-4 49.3% 8.5    4.0 3.7 0.7 0.0
13-5 19.2% 3.9    0.9 2.0 0.9 0.1
12-6 3.5% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 16.4 8.7 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.0% 41.6% 41.6% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6
16-2 4.5% 40.8% 40.8% 12.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 2.7
15-3 10.9% 36.3% 36.3% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.2 6.9
14-4 17.2% 30.7% 30.7% 13.7 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.6 11.9
13-5 20.5% 24.6% 24.6% 14.0 0.0 1.2 2.8 1.0 0.0 15.4
12-6 18.4% 19.0% 19.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.1 14.9
11-7 13.6% 14.2% 14.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 11.7
10-8 7.8% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 6.8
9-9 4.0% 10.7% 10.7% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.6
8-10 1.5% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.4
7-11 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 13.9 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 21.5 64.6 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%