High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#86
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#77
Pace72.3#114
Improvement-1.9#321

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#54
First Shot+4.2#68
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#79
Layup/Dunks+5.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#240
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement-0.9#272

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#157
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#259
Layups/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#12
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows-3.2#337
Improvement-0.9#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.1% 50.7% 42.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.7% 99.1%
Conference Champion 65.2% 66.0% 54.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round50.0% 50.6% 42.0%
Second Round9.0% 9.2% 6.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.2% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 25 - 3
Quad 421 - 226 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 160 Furman W 97-71 75%     1 - 0 +25.5 +19.4 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 269 Jacksonville W 85-64 91%     2 - 0 +12.2 +11.4 +1.1
  Fri, Nov 14 107 @UAB L 74-91 47%     2 - 1 -9.7 -3.4 -4.6
  Mon, Nov 17 348 Canisius W 93-50 96%     3 - 1 +28.4 +18.4 +12.4
  Thu, Nov 20 174 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 77%     4 - 1 +8.8 +12.4 -4.0
  Sat, Nov 22 192 Incarnate Word W 91-80 79%     5 - 1 +9.1 +20.7 -10.8
  Sat, Nov 29 278 Western Carolina W 87-71 93%    
  Wed, Dec 3 142 Southern Illinois W 82-73 79%    
  Fri, Dec 5 349 NJIT W 88-67 98%    
  Sun, Dec 14 279 Appalachian St. W 78-65 88%    
  Fri, Dec 19 214 La Salle W 84-71 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 302 Bryant W 85-68 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 218 @UNC Asheville W 82-75 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 260 Longwood W 88-73 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 356 Gardner-Webb W 93-71 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 282 @Charleston Southern W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Jan 14 105 @Winthrop L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 South Carolina Upstate W 89-71 94%    
  Sat, Jan 24 273 @Radford W 88-78 81%    
  Thu, Jan 29 275 Presbyterian W 80-64 92%    
  Sat, Jan 31 260 @Longwood W 85-76 78%    
  Wed, Feb 4 282 Charleston Southern W 87-71 92%    
  Sat, Feb 7 273 Radford W 91-75 92%    
  Thu, Feb 12 316 @South Carolina Upstate W 86-74 85%    
  Sat, Feb 14 356 Gardner-Webb W 93-71 97%    
  Thu, Feb 19 218 UNC Asheville W 85-72 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 105 Winthrop W 84-79 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 275 @Presbyterian W 77-67 80%    
Projected Record 24 - 4 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 4.0 11.6 20.1 19.6 9.3 65.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.0 8.4 8.6 3.2 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.0 7.6 13.0 20.3 23.3 19.6 9.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 9.3    9.3
15-1 100.0% 19.6    18.1 1.5
14-2 86.3% 20.1    15.3 4.7 0.0
13-3 57.2% 11.6    6.9 4.4 0.2
12-4 30.6% 4.0    1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0
11-5 7.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 65.2% 65.2 51.4 12.8 0.9 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 9.3% 69.9% 69.5% 0.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.3%
15-1 19.6% 63.2% 63.1% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 2.2 7.4 2.5 0.2 7.2 0.2%
14-2 23.3% 54.2% 54.2% 12.5 0.4 6.0 5.2 0.9 0.1 10.6
13-3 20.3% 45.7% 45.7% 13.0 0.0 2.5 4.7 1.9 0.1 11.0
12-4 13.0% 39.0% 39.0% 13.3 0.7 2.5 1.6 0.2 8.0
11-5 7.6% 34.6% 34.6% 13.6 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.0
10-6 4.0% 26.3% 26.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.0
9-7 1.8% 20.3% 20.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
8-8 0.7% 17.8% 17.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
7-9 0.2% 17.4% 17.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-10 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 50.1% 50.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 5.6 18.5 16.3 6.6 1.1 0.1 49.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 10.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.6 5.6 2.6 8.0 13.1 49.8 13.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 2.6% 11.0 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 1.3% 11.0 1.3