High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.6 #87
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #105
Pace 72.4 #90
Improvement -0.7 #230

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #56 B B B+ A- B+
Defense #151 C- C A- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.26 #81 +5.0 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.74 #195 -2.7 #310
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.04 #151 +1.2 #133
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #77 +3.5 #89
Freethrows 21.0 #22 74% #140 15.6 #27
Second Chance 31.3% #161 1.21 #26 0.38 #75
Turnovers 14.0% #43
Total Offense +6.2 #56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #160 1.19 #217 -1.1 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #289 0.83 #297 +0.7 #148
Three Pointers 44% #107 0.99 #152 -0.8 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #222 -1.2 #224
Freethrows 16.7 #152 74% #265 12.4 #188
Second Chance 31.0% #190 1.08 #234 0.33 #221
Turnovers 19.9% #34
Total Defense +0.4 #151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #49 1.1% #272
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #105 1.2% #208
Possession Length 15.9 #57 17.9 #283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #24 0.17 #166
Improvement -2.4 #319 +1.7 #86

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.2% 64.2% 56.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.9% 98.3% 85.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round61.2% 64.2% 56.9%
Second Round8.9% 9.9% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.9% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 26 - 3
Quad 420 - 226 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 147 Furman W 97 - 71 72% +17  1 - 0 +27 +21 A+ C A+ +5 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 305 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 94% +11  2 - 0 +10 +10 F C+ A+ +0 B+ D+ A-
 Fri, Nov 14 115 @UAB L 74 - 91 50% -3  2 - 1 -10 -3 D D+ F -5 F A+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 337 Canisius W 93 - 50 96% +25  3 - 1 +29 +20 A+ A A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 160 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 74% +6  4 - 1 +10 +15 A+ C- B+ -5 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 187 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 78% +5  5 - 1 +9 +24 A- A+ A+ -14 C F B
 Sat, Nov 29 291 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 94% +7  6 - 1 +10 +10 A+ F F -1 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 126 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 77% +3  6 - 2 -3 +8 C+ C+ B+ -11 C F C
 Fri, Dec 5 352 NJIT W 89 - 72 97% +12  7 - 2 +1 +6 F A+ A- -6 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 223 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 83% -2  7 - 3 -11 -1 D F A -10 F A+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 208 La Salle W 84 - 72 87% +8  8 - 3 +6 +14 A B A+ -7 C- B C
 Mon, Dec 22 329 Bryant W 93 - 47 96% +27  9 - 3 +33 +25 A+ A+ F +12 B D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 218 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 74% +11  10 - 3 1 - 0 +18 +18 A+ A D+ +1 A- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 270 Longwood W 80 - 67 92% +7  11 - 3 2 - 0 +4 +7 C- A- C+ -2 F D- A
 Wed, Jan 7 362 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 98% +38  12 - 3 3 - 0 +36 +9 D A- A +20 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 217 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 82 OT 74% -2  13 - 3 4 - 0 +2 +1 D+ D+ C +1 B- C+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 143 @Winthrop W 83 - 80 59%
 Sat, Jan 17 299 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 69 95%
 Sat, Jan 24 254 @Radford W 90 - 81 80%
 Thu, Jan 29 292 Presbyterian W 81 - 64 95%
 Sat, Jan 31 270 @Longwood W 85 - 75 82%
 Wed, Feb 4 217 Charleston Southern W 88 - 75 88%
 Sat, Feb 7 254 Radford W 93 - 78 92%
 Thu, Feb 12 299 @South Carolina Upstate W 84 - 72 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 362 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 69 99%
 Thu, Feb 19 218 UNC Asheville W 83 - 70 88%
 Sat, Feb 21 143 Winthrop W 86 - 77 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 292 @Presbyterian W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 23 - 5 14 - 2 +7 +6 B B B+ +0 C- C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.9 13.5 26.0 31.2 17.6 92.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 1.9 0.3 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 15.4 26.3 31.2 17.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 17.6    17.6
15-1 100.0% 31.2    31.2
14-2 99.0% 26.0    24.2 1.8
13-3 87.9% 13.5    10.3 3.2 0.1
12-4 61.6% 3.9    1.8 1.8 0.3 0.0
11-5 26.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 92.9% 92.9 85.1 7.2 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 17.6% 70.7% 70.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 4.7 6.9 0.8 0.0 5.2
15-1 31.2% 65.5% 65.5% 12.5 0.6 10.2 8.7 0.9 0.0 10.8
14-2 26.3% 59.1% 59.1% 12.9 0.0 3.8 9.0 2.6 0.1 10.7
13-3 15.4% 54.6% 54.6% 13.2 1.0 4.5 2.7 0.2 7.0
12-4 6.4% 47.8% 47.8% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 3.3
11-5 2.4% 44.0% 44.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4
10-6 0.6% 46.9% 46.9% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
9-7 0.1% 42.3% 42.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 61.2% 61.2% 0.0% 12.6 38.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.4% 100.0% 11.7 0.0 0.2 37.8 55.7 6.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%