Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +4.2 104
Results Rating +2.8 118
Consistency 0.15 174
Pace 63.4 318
Improvement +2.1 104

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 104 C B- C+ C D
Defense C+ 130 B C D C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 343 C 57% 189 -4.7 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 199 D 34% 305 +0.3 154
Three Pointers 45% 92 B 37% 39 +4.4 46
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 305 C+ +1.0 128
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 172
Second Chance B- 33.7% 84 C+ 1.07 121 B- 0.36 78
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 49
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 296
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 144
Freethrows C- 0.29 229 B 76% 57 C 0.22 178
Total Offense C+ +2.8 104

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 149 C- 12.1% 248
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 156 D+ 7.1% 303
Three Pointers F 68% 364 C- 1.1% 257
Total C- 52% 243 C- 5.9% 220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 B+ 52% 37 -5.3 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 65 B- 36% 92 +0.9 255
Three Pointers 43% 120 C+ 33% 120 +0.1 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 52 B -3.5 52
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 43
Second Chance C 30.3% 178 C 1.03 174 C 0.31 184
Turnovers from Steals D- 6.7% 345
Other Turnovers C+ 7.8% 108
Turnovers D 14.5% 313
Freethrows C 0.30 183 C 72% 151 C 0.22 175
Total Defense C+ +1.5 130

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 271 B- 13.8% 73
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 315 C 4.6% 190
Three Pointers C- 86% 231 C- 0.6% 223
Total D+ 60% 287 C 5.9% 149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 307 17.4 208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 326 0.13 49
Consistency 0.11 65 0.14 289
Improvement +0.8 146 +1.3 117

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 119 104 91
Results Rating Rank 138 119 86
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 30% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 30% 25%
Second Round2% 2% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 59 - 8
Quad 411 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 45 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 17% -1  29% 0 - 1 B +11 B- +4 B- C- C+ B+ +6 A- F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 242 @Iona L 73 - 81 71% -14  0% 0 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C D+ F C- -2 C D B
 Fri, Nov 14 334 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 88% +2  56% 1 - 2 C- -3 C +0 C+ F B- D+ -3 C+ F B
 Wed, Nov 19 156 @Temple L 76 - 81 55% -1  31% 1 - 3 C- -2 C +1 B- D- C+ D+ -3 F+ A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 212 La Salle W 63 - 58 75% +3  82% 2 - 3 C+ +2 F+ -8 C- F D A +11 A- D B+
 Sat, Nov 29 172 Merrimack W 78 - 58 69% +12  93% 3 - 3 A +19 B +7 B D- D A+ +13 B+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 166 @Penn W 77 - 60 56% +4  58% 4 - 3 A +20 B+ +8 A- A F A+ +13 A+ F+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 188 @Columbia L 70 - 72 62% -6  0% 4 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D A- D+ C+ +0 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 101 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 36% +7  86% 5 - 4 A- +15 A+ +19 A+ C A+ D+ -3 F+ A C
 Sat, Dec 13 74 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 26% +0  42% 6 - 4 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B B- C -1 B F C
 Sun, Dec 21 211 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 83% +2  60% 7 - 4 C+ +2 C +1 F A+ D C+ +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 196 Campbell W 86 - 72 81% +12  81% 8 - 4 1 - 0 B +9 A +12 B- A+ F+ C- -2 A F F
 Sat, Jan 3 215 @Drexel W 70 - 67 66% +8  97% 9 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 B A+ C D- -7 B D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 174 @Towson W 78 - 67 59% +7  79% 10 - 4 3 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 C- A+ A- B- +3 B+ D B
 Sat, Jan 10 187 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 80% -1  49% 11 - 4 4 - 0 C- -2 F -10 F D+ B A +9 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 219 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 67% -6  10% 11 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -5 B+ +9 C C A F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 225 Elon L 85 - 89 84% -3  22% 11 - 6 4 - 2 D -11 B+ +8 A F+ C- F -18 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 275 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 77% +5  66% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C- -4 B- +5 D D+ A F+ -9 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 139 @William & Mary L 82 - 89 50% -5  27% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C- -3 A +12 C- B+ A+ F -15 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 29 147 College of Charleston L 64 - 66 73% +3  73% 11 - 9 4 - 5 C- -4 F+ -10 F B C- B+ +5 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 187 @Monmouth W 73 - 57 62% +10  99% 12 - 9 5 - 5 A- +17 B- +5 B+ A+ F A+ +13 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 288 Northeastern W 80 - 63 91% +10  98% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B- +6 C+ +2 D+ B+ B B+ +6 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 174 Towson W 71 - 49 78% +18  95% 14 - 9 7 - 5 A +18 B +6 C B+ B A+ +15 B+ A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 12 147 @College of Charleston W 66 - 62 52% +4  79% 15 - 9 8 - 5 B- +8 D- -6 F+ F D+ A+ +14 A A C-
 Sat, Feb 14 107 @UNC Wilmington L 66 - 70 39% -0  35% 15 - 10 8 - 6 C+ +3 B- +4 D+ C- B+ C -1 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 267 Hampton W 79 - 43 89% +14  89% 16 - 10 9 - 6 A+ +27 A +13 B+ A+ A- A+ +20 A+ A B
 Sat, Feb 21 288 @Northeastern W 82 - 68 80% +10  92% 17 - 10 10 - 6 B +9 A- +10 C+ D+ A+ C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 219 Stony Brook W 75 - 64 84%
 Tue, Mar 3 215 Drexel W 71 - 61 83%
Totals 19 - 10 12 - 6 +4 C+ +3 F C+ D C+ +1 B B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B C+ 31% 36% 45% D C B- C+ B- C+ C- B C C+ B+ B- C+ B 33% 24% 43% B B C C C D C C C
1.13 57% 34% 37% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .36 16% .29 76% .22 1.07 52% 36% 33% -3 -1 0.93 30% 1.0 .31 15% .30 72% .21
Nov
3		 Central Florida B- A+ D+ F+ B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A F C- C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A A+ C A+ 53% 9% 38% F A- F B- F A+ F A+ F
1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35 1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39
Nov
7		 Iona D- B+ F F C- 45% 13% 42% B+ C B- F+ D+ F B- F D+ C- D A+ D+ C 37% 15% 48% C- C F+ C+ D B F B F
0.98 67% 29% 27% -2 +1 1.02 37% 0.8 .29 20% .30 56% .17 1.08 63% 13% 36% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 20% .45 67% .30
Nov
14		 Bucknell C C B- A+ B 20% 33% 47% F C+ D+ F F B- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ A C 31% 19% 50% B- C+ F F F B F F F
1.11 60% 44% 43% +9 -3 1.14 29% 0.8 .24 16% .51 66% .34 1.03 67% 22% 25% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.6 .53 23% .36 86% .31
Nov
19		 Temple C A C+ B- B+ 25% 30% 45% F B- D+ F D- C+ F A+ D D+ F B F F 33% 33% 35% A F+ A A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.09 71% 41% 36% +6 -2 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .22 85% .19 1.17 73% 33% 44% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.7 .14 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
28		 La Salle F+ D- A- C C 28% 26% 46% F+ C- C- F F D D- F F+ A A+ F+ A+ A 52% 23% 25% D- A- C D- D B+ A+ D A
0.95 50% 46% 35% 0 -1 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 20% .21 55% .11 0.87 40% 45% 25% -11 +1 0.81 34% 1.1 .37 21% .23 75% .17
Nov
29		 Merrimack B A+ F A+ B+ 33% 24% 43% D+ B D+ D- D- D B A+ A A+ A A+ B- A- 30% 11% 59% B- B+ C+ A+ A+ D A+ F+ A
1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32 0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21
Nov
30		 Penn B+ A+ D- C A 43% 29% 29% D A- B A+ A F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 50% 23% A+ A+ D+ F F+ D+ B C- B-
1.15 83% 33% 33% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.3 .43 22% .35 94% .33 0.90 29% 23% 25% -19 -5 0.56 33% 1.2 .40 15% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Columbia C- F B+ B+ D- 50% 18% 32% B D C- A+ A- D+ A F+ B+ C+ C B- F D 29% 24% 47% A+ C- B+ A+ A+ D- D+ D D
1.06 40% 44% 38% -6 +1 0.92 29% 1.4 .40 15% .39 68% .27 1.09 57% 33% 43% +5 -1 1.10 31% 0.6 .20 18% .30 75% .22
Dec
7		 Pittsburgh A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ B F+ C A+ B+ C+ A- D+ A+ F F F 26% 23% 51% A F+ B+ A+ A C F F F
1.30 64% 50% 47% +12 +1 1.28 31% 0.8 .23 11% .33 78% .26 1.19 45% 60% 45% +11 -1 1.21 31% 0.8 .23 16% .43 86% .37
Dec
13		 Syracuse A D+ F A+ A+ 38% 27% 35% D A+ C- A+ B B- F A+ F C C+ F B B 32% 21% 47% B+ B F C+ F C C+ A+ B+
1.20 50% 15% 65% +7 -1 1.15 30% 1.4 .41 17% .12 100% .12 1.19 60% 50% 32% +2 -1 1.04 44% 1.0 .44 15% .33 56% .18
Dec
21		 Quinnipiac C F C- F F 38% 12% 50% B- F A+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ C+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C- A+ B+ F F F D- F+ F+
1.10 42% 33% 24% -14 +1 0.76 48% 1.3 .64 19% .42 74% .31 0.98 47% 36% 14% -17 0 0.67 27% 1.6 .44 12% .34 75% .25
Dec
29		 Campbell A B D+ B B- 38% 19% 44% C B- A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D- B- C- C A+ A+ A+ 46% 14% 40% C A B- F F F C B B-
1.30 67% 33% 38% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.8 .89 21% .36 68% .25 1.09 57% 14% 20% -12 +1 0.80 32% 1.5 .46 11% .37 68% .25
Jan
3		 Drexel A- D A+ B- B 41% 20% 39% B- B B- A+ A+ C B D- C+ D- A B- D+ B+ 44% 18% 38% D B C D- D+ F F A D
1.18 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.6 .53 15% .34 71% .24 1.13 45% 33% 37% -5 +1 0.94 29% 1.0 .29 5% .36 60% .21
Jan
8		 Towson A- C+ F B+ C 27% 30% 43% F+ C- B A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ B- A+ A- F B- 16% 45% 39% A+ B+ C- D D B F F F
1.16 58% 23% 37% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42 1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35
Jan
10		 Monmouth F F D- F F 27% 27% 46% F F B- F D+ B A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ 29% 29% 42% B A+ A+ F B+ C- F D F
0.94 31% 31% 23% -17 -2 0.65 35% 0.8 .26 17% .56 88% .49 0.90 40% 20% 32% -12 -2 0.75 20% 1.3 .24 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
15		 Stony Brook B+ D F A+ C+ 27% 21% 52% D+ C B D- C A F A D F C- C F F 33% 20% 47% B- F+ F C D- F D+ B+ C-
1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17 1.28 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19
Jan
17		 Elon B+ D- A+ A+ A+ 17% 31% 52% F A B F F+ C- A B A F F+ C+ F F 52% 7% 41% D- F C B B- F F F F
1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29 1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37
Jan
22		 N.C. A&T B- C- F+ B+ C- 17% 30% 53% F D C- D+ D+ A B- B+ B F+ B+ F A- C- 13% 39% 48% A+ B- F F F F F C F
1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25 1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46
Jan
24		 William & Mary A F F A+ C- 35% 13% 53% C C- A C B+ A+ D+ A+ B- F C A+ F D 27% 11% 63% B+ C- F C+ F F A+ F A
1.22 47% 14% 41% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.1 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.33 60% 17% 40% +4 0 1.11 38% 1.1 .43 7% .21 85% .18
Jan
29		 College of Charleston F+ F F F+ F 32% 23% 45% C F A D B C- F F F B+ A+ D- A+ A+ 47% 24% 29% D+ A+ F C+ D- D- D+ A+ B+
0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03 0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Monmouth B- C+ A+ A A 23% 27% 50% F B+ A- A+ A+ F F+ A D A+ A- F+ A+ B+ 25% 45% 30% A+ A A+ A- A+ F A+ C+ A+
1.12 60% 50% 41% +9 -2 1.16 40% 1.6 .64 29% .22 80% .17 0.88 46% 46% 19% -6 -4 0.81 19% 0.9 .16 9% .19 73% .14
Feb
5		 Northeastern C+ A- C D C- 32% 26% 42% F+ D+ A- C B+ B F A- D- B+ B- F D F+ 27% 27% 46% A+ D+ A+ B A+ C+ C+ B B-
1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21 0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17
Feb
7		 Towson B F F+ A+ B- 25% 33% 42% F C B B B+ B C+ B+ B A+ A+ C F A- 39% 30% 32% C- B+ A A+ A+ C+ F A+ D+
1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22 0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22
Feb
12		 College of Charleston D- B- D- F D- 22% 25% 53% D F+ C F F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ 23% 23% 54% B+ A A+ C- A C- B- F C-
0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32 0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27
Feb
14		 UNC Wilmington B- A+ F B+ C 17% 38% 46% F D+ C+ D- C- B+ A+ C A+ C F+ D B D 30% 38% 33% A C- B A A- F F A F
1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31 1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40
Feb
19		 Hampton A A+ D+ D+ B+ 45% 18% 37% B- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- F A F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% C A+ D- A+ A B A+ A+ A+
1.29 78% 33% 32% +7 +1 1.18 31% 1.6 .50 13% .15 75% .11 0.70 41% 21% 16% -21 -1 0.58 38% 0.5 .19 21% .23 64% .15
Feb
21		 Northeastern A- D+ A+ A B 29% 22% 49% F+ C+ F A+ D+ A+ B- D- C C+ B- C+ A+ A+ 38% 26% 36% A- A+ D F F F A- B- B+
1.28 57% 55% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .38 68% .26 1.06 55% 36% 21% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 9% .21 67% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 27.0 70.0 97.0 3rd
4th 0.9 0.9 4th
5th 1.6 1.6 5th
6th 0.6 0.6 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.0 27.0 70.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 70.0% 30.7% 30.7% 12.5 0.2 11.7 9.3 0.3 48.5
11-7 27.0% 25.5% 25.5% 12.8 1.6 4.7 0.6 0.0 20.1
10-8 3.0% 18.5% 18.5% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.5
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.0% 29.0% 0.0% 12.6 71.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.5% 100.0% 12.5 0.8 54.4 43.4 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.0%
Lose Out 0.7%