Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#174
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#222
Pace72.0#123
Improvement-1.7#312

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#164
First Shot-4.0#293
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#16
Layup/Dunks-1.9#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#285
Freethrows+2.1#69
Improvement+0.9#93

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#203
First Shot+0.2#161
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#277
Layups/Dunks+1.1#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#295
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement-2.6#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 2.9% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 15.2
.500 or above 33.7% 34.9% 10.2%
.500 or above in Conference 36.2% 37.1% 20.7%
Conference Champion 2.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 9.1% 16.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.8% 2.9% 1.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 48 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 85%     1 - 0 +7.6 +1.5 +3.8
  Fri, Nov 7 169 @Oregon St. L 73-76 38%     1 - 1 -1.2 +1.7 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 15 340 @Chicago St. W 67-63 74%     2 - 1 -4.0 -3.5 +0.0
  Thu, Nov 20 86 High Point L 80-90 23%     2 - 2 -3.6 +4.3 -7.4
  Sat, Nov 22 314 Southern Indiana W 84-73 75%     3 - 2 +2.8 +5.2 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 26 185 @Robert Morris L 74-88 40%     3 - 3 -12.7 +4.1 -17.3
  Wed, Dec 3 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-71 95%    
  Sun, Dec 7 69 @Yale L 73-85 13%    
  Sat, Dec 13 94 @Belmont L 72-82 17%    
  Wed, Dec 17 90 Northern Iowa L 66-70 35%    
  Sun, Dec 21 196 @Charlotte L 72-74 43%    
  Thu, Jan 1 118 Murray St. L 82-83 45%    
  Sun, Jan 4 268 @Valparaiso W 72-71 55%    
  Wed, Jan 7 142 Southern Illinois W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 102 @Illinois St. L 69-78 21%    
  Tue, Jan 13 90 @Northern Iowa L 63-73 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 143 Drake W 70-69 54%    
  Tue, Jan 20 291 Evansville W 77-68 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 112 @Bradley L 70-78 24%    
  Tue, Jan 27 166 Indiana St. W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 142 @Southern Illinois L 73-78 32%    
  Tue, Feb 3 118 @Murray St. L 79-86 26%    
  Fri, Feb 6 94 Belmont L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Feb 12 143 @Drake L 67-72 33%    
  Sun, Feb 15 102 Illinois St. L 72-75 39%    
  Wed, Feb 18 291 @Evansville W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 268 Valparaiso W 75-68 74%    
  Tue, Feb 24 112 Bradley L 73-75 44%    
  Sun, Mar 1 166 @Indiana St. L 77-80 39%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.8 1.0 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.8 1.6 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 4.5 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 5.4 2.1 0.2 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 5.1 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.0 7.1 9.9 12.3 12.8 12.3 11.2 8.7 6.6 4.2 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 90.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 74.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 49.8% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 18.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 41.4% 41.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 22.0% 22.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 0.7% 12.8% 12.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 1.5% 18.0% 18.0% 12.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-6 2.8% 13.9% 13.9% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-7 4.2% 9.7% 9.7% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.8
12-8 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.2
11-9 8.7% 3.9% 3.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.4
10-10 11.2% 3.6% 3.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.8
9-11 12.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.2
8-12 12.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.6
7-13 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.2
6-14 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-15 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-16 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 97.1 0.0%