Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +4.0 106
Results Rating +1.8 134
Consistency 0.17 292
Pace 66.4 241
Improvement +10.2 1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 157 C- B C- C+ C
Defense B- 75 B- C- A- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 86 D+ 55% 260 +0.8 145
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 90 C 38% 166 +0.9 131
Three Pointers 35% 301 C- 33% 228 -3.5 299
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 191 C- -1.8 238
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 229
Second Chance B 35.8% 38 C 1.05 151 B 0.37 60
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 228
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 262
Turnovers C- 17.8% 250
Freethrows C+ 0.32 142 C 72% 193 C+ 0.23 139
Total Offense C +0.4 157

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 46 D+ 12.7% 293
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 105 C 5.5% 220
Three Pointers C 84% 191 C- 1.2% 269
Total B- 59% 101 D 7.0% 322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 B- 55% 91 -3.2 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 288 B+ 32% 18 -2.3 27
Three Pointers 48% 24 B- 32% 98 +2.3 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 205 B -3.2 56
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 75
Second Chance D- 34.8% 331 B- 0.98 93 C- 0.34 254
Turnovers from Steals B+ 11.8% 38
Other Turnovers B 8.6% 46
Turnovers A- 20.4% 27
Freethrows C 0.30 185 D+ 74% 292 C 0.22 207
Total Defense B- +3.6 75

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 66% 365 B 14.6% 54
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 41% 350 C 5.1% 159
Three Pointers F 93% 363 C 0.8% 166
Total F 73% 363 C+ 6.4% 120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 227 17.5 231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 107 0.18 218
Consistency 0.12 197 0.12 189
Improvement +3.8 28 +6.4 4

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 119 107 96
Results Rating Rank 156 131 97
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 13 - 7
Conference Finish 3 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 11% 10%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 54 - 6
Quad 35 - 79 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 254 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 87% +6  60% 1 - 0 B+ +12 C -0 C A F A +10 A B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 155 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 54% -3  28% 1 - 1 C +0 C +0 B D F C -0 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 347 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 90% -2  33% 2 - 1 D+ -6 D- -6 F A+ D- C+ +0 D- C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 94 High Point L 80 - 90 43% -6  2% 2 - 2 C- -4 C +2 C- A+ D- D -5 D+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 338 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 92% +11  99% 3 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 B- D F+ C- -3 F B- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 161 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 55% -13  0% 3 - 3 D -11 C+ +2 D- A D+ F -13 D F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 330 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 94% -5  8% 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -23 F D- F A- +8 C+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 7 88 @Yale L 66 - 80 30% -4  33% 3 - 5 C- -5 D+ -4 F C- B C- -2 A+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 62 @Belmont L 84 - 87 23% +3  60% 3 - 6 0 - 1 B +9 A+ +20 A- B+ A+ F -11 F D A-
 Wed, Dec 17 95 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 55% -2  36% 3 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 F+ -8 F B+ A- B +4 C- C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 169 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 57% +2  63% 3 - 8 D -10 D+ -3 C+ F+ F+ D- -7 B- B- C
 Thu, Jan 1 121 Murray St. L 77 - 81 66% +1  48% 3 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 D -5 D- B F C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 150 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 52% +1  49% 3 - 10 0 - 4 C- -3 D- -6 D B F B- +2 B B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 124 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 66% +8  88% 4 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +13 B +6 F+ A+ A+ A- +8 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 98 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 35% +1  52% 5 - 10 2 - 4 B+ +12 D- -7 F A+ F A+ +19 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 95 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 32% +0  38% 6 - 10 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +10 A- B- A+ A- +8 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 189 Drake W 74 - 67 80% +7  95% 7 - 10 4 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F A B- B +4 B B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 297 Evansville W 76 - 49 91% +13  86% 8 - 10 5 - 4 A- +16 C -0 C B B+ A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 114 @Bradley W 85 - 70 42% +8  76% 9 - 10 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +18 A+ C+ A- B +4 C C+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 213 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 83% +9  94% 10 - 10 7 - 4 C- -4 C +1 B+ D D+ D+ -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 124 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 43% -6  26% 11 - 10 8 - 4 B- +8 B- +5 F+ A+ F B- +3 C- A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 121 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 43% -8  0% 11 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 D- -7 F+ B- C B+ +6 A- F A
 Fri, Feb 6 62 Belmont L 62 - 68 43% -9  0% 11 - 12 8 - 6 C -0 D- -7 C F C+ B+ +6 C A A+
 Thu, Feb 12 189 @Drake W 80 - 70 61% +4  76% 12 - 12 9 - 6 B +11 B+ +9 C- C- A B- +3 C C- A-
 Sun, Feb 15 98 Illinois St. W 83 - 56 58% +13  79% 13 - 12 10 - 6 A+ +29 B +7 A- A+ C A+ +21 A+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 18 297 @Evansville W 84 - 46 81% +16  97% 14 - 12 11 - 6 A+ +33 A+ +14 A+ B- F A+ +22 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 150 Valparaiso L 67 - 71 73% -6  11% 14 - 13 11 - 7 D+ -6 D+ -3 D A D+ D+ -4 C+ C D+
 Tue, Feb 24 114 Bradley W 93 - 86 2OT 64% +4  87% 15 - 13 12 - 7 B- +7 B+ +8 A B- A- C -1 C D B-
 Sun, Mar 1 213 @Indiana St. W 74 - 70 65%
Totals 16 - 13 13 - 7 +4 C +0 A+ C- C B- +4 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 42% 45% 35% C C- B C B C- C+ C C+ B- B- B+ B- B 35% 17% 48% C- B- D- B- C- A- C D+ C
1.09 55% 38% 33% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.0 .37 18% .32 72% .23 1.03 55% 32% 32% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.0 .34 20% .30 74% .24
Nov
3		 Detroit Mercy C F D+ A+ C 35% 18% 47% D+ C C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ A C C- A+ A+ 15% 25% 59% C- A F A+ B+ B+ D B- D+
1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47 0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23
Nov
7		 Oregon St. C B- A+ C- B 31% 10% 58% C+ B C- F D F B+ A+ A+ C D- F D+ F 27% 20% 54% B D- F A- F A+ F D+ F
1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33 1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42
Nov
15		 Chicago St. D- C F F F 53% 10% 38% B+ F A- A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ B D- 33% 30% 37% D+ D- F+ B C- B- D- C D
1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42 0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23
Nov
20		 High Point C A+ C- F C 33% 23% 44% D- C- A+ B- A+ D- A+ C- A+ D C+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% C D+ D+ A- C+ B F D- F
1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31 1.23 59% 20% 41% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49
Nov
22		 Southern Indiana C+ C+ A+ C- C+ 60% 13% 27% A- B- C+ F D F+ A+ A+ A+ C- F F A+ F+ 38% 9% 53% F F F+ A+ B- B- D+ A+ A
1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47 0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13
Nov
26		 Robert Morris C+ F A+ B+ F 60% 10% 31% A D- A+ D+ A D+ A+ F A- F D A+ D- C- 43% 10% 47% F D F F F B+ D- F F
1.09 40% 50% 38% -8 +3 0.93 47% 0.9 .42 18% .59 58% .34 1.30 62% 0% 39% +1 +2 1.08 48% 1.4 .70 21% .30 81% .24
Dec
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F F D F F 61% 12% 27% A F B- F D- F B- D+ C+ A- D+ A+ C+ B- 46% 18% 36% F C+ D+ F D- B A A+ A+
0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29 0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11
Dec
7		 Yale D+ F F+ A- F 37% 27% 37% D+ F A- F C- B B A+ A C- A A+ D A+ 35% 27% 38% A- A+ F+ F F C- F D- F
1.01 28% 31% 39% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.8 .27 12% .30 88% .26 1.23 47% 15% 39% -7 -1 0.85 38% 1.5 .56 14% .50 82% .41
Dec
13		 Belmont A+ B- C- A+ A 20% 24% 56% D- A- A C B+ A+ D A+ B F C- F F F 40% 5% 56% D F F A+ D A- F D F
1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32
Dec
17		 Northern Iowa F+ D F F F 48% 16% 36% B+ F B+ B B+ A- D- F F+ B B- D F D- 21% 26% 52% A+ C- F A+ C+ A+ C+ F D+
0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13 0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19
Dec
21		 Charlotte D+ F A+ A+ C+ 42% 19% 38% B- C+ A- F F+ F+ B D C+ D- B B- D B 45% 12% 43% D+ B- F A+ B- C F F F
1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24 1.23 55% 33% 38% 0 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51
Jan
1		 Murray St. D D F A- D- 42% 38% 21% F+ D- A D B F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A+ 35% 29% 37% A A+ F F F B+ D F F
1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36 1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32
Jan
4		 Valparaiso D- B+ B+ F D+ 36% 36% 29% F D B- B B F A- F+ B- B- A A+ F B+ 39% 34% 26% C B C+ B- B- B F F F
0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24 1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61
Jan
7		 Southern Illinois B F F F F 51% 15% 34% A F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A- B+ F B- C- 41% 25% 33% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25 0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04
Jan
10		 Illinois St. D- F C+ F F 40% 40% 19% D- F A- A+ A+ F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 15% 58% C A+ D B C- C+ F F+ F
0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18 0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30
Jan
13		 Northern Iowa A- A+ A- F A 45% 27% 29% C- A- F+ A+ B- A+ B+ F C- A- C+ A- A+ A+ 39% 14% 48% C A+ F D+ F B+ F+ F F
1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18 0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27
Jan
17		 Drake C- F F C F 28% 23% 50% C- F B A+ A B- A+ F A+ B A+ F A- B- 25% 25% 49% B+ B C A+ B+ C+ C- A+ B
1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42 1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18
Jan
20		 Evansville C A+ A- F C 43% 29% 27% C- C C+ A- B B+ A- F C+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 25% 11% 64% F A+ F A+ B+ A+ C+ F C-
1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21 0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21
Jan
24		 Bradley A+ A B A+ A+ 20% 43% 37% F A+ B D+ C+ A- D A C B F+ F A C 34% 19% 47% C- C A- F C+ C F+ C+ D-
1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23 1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28
Jan
27		 Indiana St. C C C A+ B+ 45% 24% 31% C+ B+ B- F D D+ A+ B- A+ D+ F F C+ F 43% 7% 50% C- F+ F F F A+ A A+ A+
1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26 1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Southern Illinois B- C- F F F 47% 16% 37% B+ F+ A+ C A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A- F C 47% 26% 28% D C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F D F
1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43 1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29
Feb
3		 Murray St. D- F F C F+ 38% 25% 36% C- F+ D- A+ B- C A+ F A- B+ A+ F B A 35% 14% 51% C- A- C+ F F A D B- D+
0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27 1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27
Feb
6		 Belmont D- C+ A+ F C+ 39% 27% 34% C- C B- F F C+ A F+ B+ B+ D+ A+ F C- 21% 9% 70% A- C D+ A+ A A+ D A+ B-
0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25 1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19
Feb
12		 Drake B+ B- D A+ C+ 30% 37% 33% F C- B- F+ C- A C+ A+ A+ B- B A+ F+ C+ 33% 17% 50% D+ C C+ D- C- A- C F D+
1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29 1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24
Feb
15		 Illinois St. B A- A+ F A 48% 33% 19% C+ A- A+ B A+ C F F F A+ A D- A+ A+ 22% 17% 61% C+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A+
1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07 0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09
Feb
18		 Evansville A+ B D+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% C- A+ A D B- F F A- F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 21% 19% 60% C- A+ A- F C+ B A+ A+ A+
1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08 0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10
Feb
21		 Valparaiso D+ C- D- F+ D 46% 24% 30% C D B- A+ A D+ B F C- D+ D+ A+ F+ C+ 28% 34% 38% B C+ D- A- C D+ F F+ F
1.04 57% 27% 29% -5 0 0.91 35% 1.2 .41 19% .34 61% .21 1.11 62% 19% 39% -3 -3 0.91 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 76% .34
Feb
24		 Bradley B+ C B+ A+ A- 45% 17% 38% A A F+ A+ B- A- A+ D A+ C A A D- B 45% 7% 47% F C F+ C D B- D A C
1.19 58% 44% 45% +7 +1 1.19 22% 1.6 .34 15% .48 69% .33 1.10 48% 25% 38% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 15% .36 67% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 64.6 64.6 2nd
3rd 35.4 35.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 35.4 64.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 64.6% 11.0% 11.0% 12.4 0.1 4.2 2.7 0.0 57.5
12-8 35.4% 9.6% 9.6% 13.0 0.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 32.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 12.6 89.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.1% 100.0% 12.4 1.6 59.3 38.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.8%
Lose Out 11.0%