Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#22
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#26
Pace69.5#192
Improvement-0.6#229

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#36
First Shot+8.8#13
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#238
Layup/Dunks+1.0#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#15
Freethrows+2.3#62
Improvement-2.2#344

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#18
First Shot+7.3#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks+6.2#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#31
Freethrows-0.2#207
Improvement+1.5#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 6.5% 6.6% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 23.8% 24.1% 10.9%
Top 6 Seed 46.1% 46.6% 24.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.2% 82.5% 67.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.6% 82.0% 66.3%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.2
.500 or above 96.5% 96.7% 85.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 76.2% 63.8%
Conference Champion 2.3% 2.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four5.3% 5.2% 8.5%
First Round79.8% 80.1% 63.7%
Second Round57.0% 57.4% 41.2%
Sweet Sixteen26.6% 26.8% 15.2%
Elite Eight11.6% 11.7% 5.7%
Final Four4.5% 4.6% 1.5%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.6%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 16 - 9
Quad 26 - 112 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 293 Alabama A&M W 98-51 98%     1 - 0 +36.7 +21.3 +15.2
  Sun, Nov 9 73 Marquette W 100-77 76%     2 - 0 +30.8 +24.5 +4.6
  Wed, Nov 12 208 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101-70 96%     3 - 0 +25.0 +23.3 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 16 192 Incarnate Word W 69-61 96%     4 - 0 +3.1 -2.9 +6.7
  Thu, Nov 20 306 Lindenwood W 73-53 98%     5 - 0 +9.1 -3.6 +12.6
  Tue, Nov 25 54 Kansas St. W 86-69 79%     6 - 0 +23.7 +8.5 +13.9
  Sat, Nov 29 217 Bethune-Cookman W 85-63 98%    
  Wed, Dec 3 103 @Minnesota W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Dec 6 9 Louisville L 76-80 36%    
  Tue, Dec 9 100 Penn St. W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Dec 13 16 @Kentucky L 74-80 31%    
  Sat, Dec 20 340 Chicago St. W 90-61 99.6%   
  Mon, Dec 22 177 Siena W 81-62 96%    
  Sun, Jan 4 48 Washington W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 93 @Maryland W 77-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 43 Nebraska W 80-74 72%    
  Tue, Jan 13 12 @Michigan St. L 68-74 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 21 Iowa W 73-70 60%    
  Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 70-84 11%    
  Fri, Jan 23 120 @Rutgers W 75-66 80%    
  Tue, Jan 27 3 Purdue L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 32 @UCLA L 69-70 46%    
  Tue, Feb 3 31 @USC L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 27 Wisconsin W 79-75 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 80 Oregon W 79-68 83%    
  Sun, Feb 15 13 @Illinois L 75-81 30%    
  Fri, Feb 20 3 @Purdue L 69-79 19%    
  Tue, Feb 24 56 Northwestern W 78-69 77%    
  Sun, Mar 1 12 Michigan St. L 70-71 50%    
  Wed, Mar 4 103 Minnesota W 75-61 88%    
  Sat, Mar 7 20 @Ohio St. L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.2 1.2 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.0 1.8 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.7 4.3 1.2 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.9 0.2 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.4 0.3 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.4 3.9 6.5 9.5 12.1 13.7 14.2 12.6 10.2 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 96.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 78.2% 0.5    0.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 44.7% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 14.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.8% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 2.7 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.7% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 3.4 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.2% 99.9% 5.8% 94.1% 4.3 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.1 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.6% 99.5% 3.5% 96.0% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 99.5%
12-8 14.2% 98.5% 1.2% 97.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.7 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.5%
11-9 13.7% 96.1% 0.9% 95.1% 7.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 96.0%
10-10 12.1% 87.4% 0.6% 86.7% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.0 1.5 87.3%
9-11 9.5% 62.8% 0.4% 62.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.9 0.1 3.5 62.6%
8-12 6.5% 33.1% 0.1% 33.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 4.4 33.1%
7-13 3.9% 9.4% 0.3% 9.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 9.2%
6-14 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.7%
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 82.2% 2.9% 79.3% 6.2 2.0 4.5 7.2 10.1 10.9 11.5 9.7 8.8 7.0 5.7 4.6 0.3 17.8 81.6%