Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.3 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +11.1 #51
Pace 69.5 #179
Improvement -2.2 #290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #25 A+ B- B A A-
Defense #47 A B- C+ C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #160 1.31 #42 +3.2 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #351 0.97 #12 -3.4 #333
Three Pointers 52% #17 1.12 #46 +8.3 #7
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #16 +8.1 #17
Freethrows 20.1 #56 79% #18 15.9 #17
Second Chance 32.4% #133 1.12 #100 0.36 #90
Turnovers 14.9% #81
Total Offense +9.0 #25

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #293 1.00 #24 +5.2 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #23 0.68 #84 -2.0 #321
Three Pointers 38% #267 0.92 #73 +3.3 #60
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #18 +6.5 #21
Freethrows 17.8 #209 74% #228 13.1 #146
Second Chance 25.8% #33 1.09 #256 0.28 #88
Turnovers 17.5% #119
Total Defense +5.3 #47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.9% #25 -2.5% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.0% #24 -11.1% #23
Possession Length 16.7 #122 17.9 #277
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #123 0.12 #32
Improvement +1.6 #85 -3.9 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 2.3% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 8.7% 12.4% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.2% 66.5% 45.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.7% 66.0% 45.5%
Average Seed 8.5 8.3 9.0
.500 or above 96.9% 99.0% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.0% 72.3% 45.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.8% 10.0% 11.7%
First Round52.6% 62.2% 41.0%
Second Round29.9% 36.6% 21.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.2% 11.9% 5.8%
Elite Eight3.8% 5.0% 2.3%
Final Four1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 25 - 29 - 13
Quad 35 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 300 Alabama A&M W 98 - 51 98% +31  1 - 0 +36 +20 A+ C C +16 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 106 Marquette W 100 - 77 82% +12  2 - 0 +27 +24 A+ A- A+ +2 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101 - 70 96% +13  3 - 0 +24 +22 A+ A A+ +2 D B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 187 Incarnate Word W 69 - 61 95% +10  4 - 0 +3 +0 D C B- +4 B B C
 Thu, Nov 20 252 Lindenwood W 73 - 53 97% +14  5 - 0 +12 -3 F C A+ +15 A+ B B-
 Tue, Nov 25 74 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 82% +13  6 - 0 +22 +8 A+ C- F +12 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 272 Bethune-Cookman W 100 - 56 98% +26  7 - 0 +35 +21 A+ D- A+ +13 A+ C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 76 @Minnesota L 64 - 73 64% -1  7 - 1 0 - 1 +2 +0 C C A+ +1 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 19 Louisville L 78 - 87 42% -12  7 - 2 +7 +7 C+ A+ C- +1 C- A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 99 Penn St. W 113 - 72 87% +28  8 - 2 1 - 1 +43 +34 A+ A+ A+ +7 A C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 25 @Kentucky L 60 - 72 34% +0  8 - 3 +7 -0 D C- F +6 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 349 Chicago St. W 78 - 58 99% +18  9 - 3 +4 -2 A- F D+ +6 C+ A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 177 Siena W 81 - 60 95% +18  10 - 3 +17 +9 B+ F C +8 A+ B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 46 Washington W 90 - 80 72% +7  11 - 3 2 - 1 +18 +29 A+ A+ A+ -10 B- D F
 Wed, Jan 7 112 @Maryland W 84 - 66 76% +6  12 - 3 3 - 1 +25 +18 C+ A+ B +8 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 16 Nebraska L 77 - 83 50% +1  12 - 4 3 - 2 +8 +15 A+ A+ D+ -7 D+ C D+
 Tue, Jan 13 13 @Michigan St. L 60 - 81 23% -5  12 - 5 3 - 3 +1 +6 A+ C+ F -7 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 22 Iowa W 73 - 72 55%
 Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 74 - 88 9%
 Fri, Jan 23 124 @Rutgers W 78 - 69 80%
 Tue, Jan 27 3 Purdue L 74 - 79 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 38 @UCLA L 73 - 75 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 47 @USC W 80 - 79 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 39 Wisconsin W 81 - 77 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 72 Oregon W 81 - 72 81%
 Sun, Feb 15 8 @Illinois L 73 - 82 19%
 Fri, Feb 20 3 @Purdue L 71 - 82 17%
 Tue, Feb 24 63 Northwestern W 80 - 72 78%
 Sun, Mar 1 13 Michigan St. L 71 - 73 44%
 Wed, Mar 4 76 Minnesota W 76 - 66 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 @Ohio St. L 77 - 79 41%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 10 +14 +9 A+ B- B +5 A B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.1 2.2 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.6 4.0 0.4 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.6 6.3 1.0 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 7.9 2.5 0.1 14.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 6.8 4.5 0.3 13.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.6 5.1 1.0 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.6 1.4 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.0 13th
14th 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.6 12.6 17.5 20.6 17.8 12.0 6.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 30.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.3% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.5% 99.1% 3.3% 95.8% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-8 12.0% 95.7% 1.8% 94.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 3.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.5 95.7%
11-9 17.8% 85.7% 1.3% 84.3% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 4.3 3.6 1.3 2.6 85.5%
10-10 20.6% 67.0% 0.7% 66.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 4.6 3.9 0.0 6.8 66.8%
9-11 17.5% 32.5% 0.5% 32.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.6 0.1 11.8 32.2%
8-12 12.6% 10.2% 0.1% 10.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.3 10.1%
7-13 6.6% 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 1.1%
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 57.2% 1.1% 56.1% 8.5 42.8 56.7%