Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.9#4
Expected Predictive Rating+23.5#6
Pace70.6#166
Improvement+1.4#71

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#15
First Shot+9.2#9
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#127
Layup/Dunks+6.3#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#104
Freethrows+0.4#147
Improvement+0.7#110

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#5
First Shot+8.9#9
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#127
Layups/Dunks+7.0#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement+0.8#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 21.9% 21.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 45.9% 45.9% 36.0%
Top 4 Seed 78.2% 78.2% 48.0%
Top 6 Seed 92.3% 92.3% 76.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.4% 92.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.2% 90.5%
Average Seed 3.2 3.2 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 96.8% 84.0%
Conference Champion 28.9% 28.9% 28.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round99.3% 99.3% 92.0%
Second Round90.6% 90.6% 84.0%
Sweet Sixteen62.3% 62.3% 68.0%
Elite Eight36.1% 36.1% 32.0%
Final Four19.1% 19.1% 0.0%
Championship Game9.6% 9.6% 0.0%
National Champion4.5% 4.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 6
Quad 32 - 020 - 7
Quad 47 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-50 99.7%    1 - 0 +20.6 +4.6 +15.7
  Thu, Nov 6 290 Grambling St. W 102-62 99%     2 - 0 +29.8 +18.6 +8.6
  Mon, Nov 10 84 Mississippi St. W 96-80 88%     3 - 0 +22.8 +18.4 +3.1
  Mon, Nov 17 334 Stonehill W 96-57 99%     4 - 0 +25.6 +18.9 +6.4
  Mon, Nov 24 15 St. John's W 83-82 58%     5 - 0 +18.7 +18.5 +0.2
  Tue, Nov 25 45 Creighton W 78-60 80%     6 - 0 +29.1 +12.3 +17.4
  Wed, Nov 26 64 Syracuse W 95-64 85%     7 - 0 +39.5 +23.8 +14.8
  Wed, Dec 3 338 Alcorn St. W 90-56 99.9%   
  Sat, Dec 6 3 @Purdue L 72-77 31%    
  Thu, Dec 11 21 Iowa W 76-68 76%    
  Sun, Dec 14 329 Eastern Illinois W 86-54 99.9%   
  Sun, Dec 21 298 Long Beach St. W 89-59 99.8%   
  Mon, Dec 29 276 Houston Christian W 85-56 99.5%   
  Fri, Jan 2 71 West Virginia W 76-61 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 28 @Baylor W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 46 Oklahoma St. W 88-76 86%    
  Tue, Jan 13 18 @Kansas W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 65 @Cincinnati W 78-70 78%    
  Tue, Jan 20 68 Central Florida W 88-73 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 46 @Oklahoma St. W 85-79 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 72 Colorado W 85-70 91%    
  Sun, Feb 1 54 @Kansas St. W 85-78 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 28 Baylor W 82-73 79%    
  Tue, Feb 10 51 @TCU W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 18 Kansas W 77-70 72%    
  Mon, Feb 16 5 Houston W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 7 @BYU L 74-77 41%    
  Tue, Feb 24 125 @Utah W 83-69 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 24 Texas Tech W 79-71 77%    
  Mon, Mar 2 11 @Arizona L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 83 Arizona St. W 85-69 92%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.4 8.4 8.9 5.0 1.2 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.2 8.6 5.3 1.3 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 5.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.3 0.4 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.5 9.6 12.8 16.4 17.0 14.3 10.2 5.1 1.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 98.1% 5.0    4.6 0.4
16-2 87.7% 8.9    6.4 2.4 0.2
15-3 58.9% 8.4    4.2 3.4 0.8 0.0
14-4 25.7% 4.4    1.1 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 17.5 8.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.2 1.0 0.2 100.0%
17-1 5.1% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.2 3.9 1.1 0.1 100.0%
16-2 10.2% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.5 6.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.3% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.8 5.4 6.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.0% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 2.3 3.7 6.7 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.4% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.9 1.3 4.4 5.8 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.8% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.8 0.3 1.4 3.7 4.2 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.6% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.5% 99.8% 5.2% 94.7% 5.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 3.6% 99.4% 4.0% 95.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
8-10 1.9% 95.3% 2.4% 92.8% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 95.2%
7-11 0.8% 76.3% 1.6% 74.7% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 75.9%
6-12 0.3% 46.5% 46.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 46.5%
5-13 0.1% 31.7% 31.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.7%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.4% 20.8% 78.6% 3.2 21.9 24.0 18.8 13.5 8.6 5.5 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.6 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 17.4