Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.9 #6
Expected Predictive Rating +27.4 #4
Pace 70.5 #142
Improvement -4.2 #342

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #21 A+ B+ B+ B- C
Defense #5 A- B+ A+ A A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #104 1.33 #30 +5.3 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #150 0.77 #152 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 37% #271 1.29 #1 +2.9 #91
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #13 +8.9 #13
Freethrows 20.0 #66 69% #290 13.7 #118
Second Chance 39.5% #10 1.02 #213 0.40 #44
Turnovers 14.3% #55
Total Offense +9.4 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #344 1.16 #178 +4.9 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #36 0.65 #45 -1.0 #258
Three Pointers 43% #124 0.90 #50 +1.5 #128
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #36 +5.4 #36
Freethrows 13.4 #25 69% #55 9.3 #345
Second Chance 26.5% #50 0.99 #110 0.26 #49
Turnovers 23.8% #1
Total Defense +11.5 #5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #184 -2.8% #20
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.3% #6 -7.9% #52
Possession Length 15.8 #54 18.4 #332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #52 0.13 #47
Improvement -4.7 #359 +0.5 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 6.4% 2.4%
#1 Seed 28.5% 31.8% 16.7%
Top 2 Seed 61.7% 66.1% 45.3%
Top 4 Seed 95.3% 96.9% 89.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.2 2.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 17.7% 20.5% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.0% 97.5% 95.5%
Sweet Sixteen70.8% 71.9% 66.8%
Elite Eight41.5% 42.8% 36.7%
Final Four21.8% 22.8% 18.4%
Championship Game11.2% 11.8% 9.2%
National Champion5.3% 5.7% 4.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 5
Quad 29 - 119 - 5
Quad 31 - 021 - 5
Quad 47 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100% +24  1 - 0 +22 +6 A F A- +15 A+ C- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 269 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99% +16  2 - 0 +31 +19 A+ B+ A+ +9 B+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 10 66 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 87% +11  3 - 0 +24 +20 A+ A+ A- +3 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 344 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100% +18  4 - 0 +24 +18 A+ C B- +6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 15 St. John's W 83 - 82 63% +4  5 - 0 +18 +20 C+ A+ A+ -2 A D C+
 Tue, Nov 25 43 Creighton W 78 - 60 80% +10  6 - 0 +30 +12 C+ A+ A- +19 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 61 Syracuse W 95 - 64 86% +11  7 - 0 +40 +24 A+ D+ A+ +15 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 347 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100% +36  8 - 0 +49 +35 A+ A+ C +5 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 3 @Purdue W 81 - 58 35% +9  9 - 0 +48 +23 A+ C D+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 11 22 Iowa W 66 - 62 78% -1  10 - 0 +17 +9 C+ C- A+ +9 C B- A+
 Sun, Dec 14 311 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 99% +15  11 - 0 +13 +3 C+ F C +10 A- C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 264 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99% +29  12 - 0 +22 +9 A A C+ +12 A A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 301 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 99% +12  13 - 0 +17 +14 F A+ A- +4 C A+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 59 West Virginia W 80 - 59 91% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +27 +24 A+ A C- +7 A B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 37 @Baylor W 70 - 60 66% +3  15 - 0 2 - 0 +27 +4 D+ B D+ +23 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 62 Oklahoma St. W 83 - 71 91% +3  16 - 0 3 - 0 +18 +8 C- A- A- +9 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 18 @Kansas L 63 - 84 54% -15  16 - 1 3 - 1 -1 +5 B+ C F -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 56 @Cincinnati W 74 - 66 79%
 Tue, Jan 20 50 Central Florida W 84 - 71 90%
 Sat, Jan 24 62 @Oklahoma St. W 86 - 77 80%
 Thu, Jan 29 73 Colorado W 85 - 69 94%
 Sun, Feb 1 74 @Kansas St. W 85 - 75 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 37 Baylor W 82 - 72 83%
 Tue, Feb 10 45 @TCU W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 18 Kansas W 77 - 70 74%
 Mon, Feb 16 5 Houston W 69 - 66 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 11 @BYU L 76 - 78 42%
 Tue, Feb 24 113 @Utah W 84 - 70 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 21 Texas Tech W 79 - 71 76%
 Mon, Mar 2 2 @Arizona L 75 - 81 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 82 Arizona St. W 86 - 69 94%
Totals 26 - 5 13 - 5 +21 +9 A+ B+ B+ +12 A- B+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 7.0 6.6 1.9 17.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.3 10.8 9.5 1.6 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 10.6 9.2 1.8 0.0 25.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.9 6.7 1.2 0.0 18.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.8 0.4 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.2 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 7.4 14.4 21.0 23.3 18.3 8.3 1.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.2
16-2 80.2% 6.6    3.9 2.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 38.3% 7.0    2.1 3.4 1.4 0.1
14-4 8.7% 2.0    0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 7.9 6.9 2.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.3% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.3 5.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 18.3% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.6 9.6 7.3 1.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 23.3% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 1.9 7.3 11.1 4.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 21.0% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.4 3.2 8.1 7.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.4% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 3.0 0.8 3.3 6.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.4% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 3.6 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 3.5% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.2 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.3% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.3% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.1 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 21.2 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 20.4 1.1