Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.4 #305
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #284
Pace 62.2 #346
Improvement +0.5 #149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #326 D+ D C- F C
Defense #251 F B+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.13 #215 -1.4 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.68 #273 -1.0 #228
Three Pointers 43% #141 0.96 #246 +0.0 #182
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #243 -2.5 #244
Freethrows 14.4 #322 65% #349 9.3 #341
Second Chance 27.2% #277 0.96 #274 0.26 #291
Turnovers 17.2% #217
Total Offense -6.0 #326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.34 #345 -5.2 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #155 0.68 #80 +0.5 #159
Three Pointers 38% #269 1.22 #361 -2.2 #279
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #351 -6.9 #351
Freethrows 18.3 #231 73% #184 13.3 #133
Second Chance 27.3% #72 0.94 #55 0.26 #42
Turnovers 15.2% #265
Total Defense -2.4 #251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #190 0.2% #185
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #249 13.2% #357
Possession Length 19.1 #339 17.4 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #320 0.15 #91
Improvement -0.4 #213 +1.0 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 3.0% 6.9% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 26.0% 42.9% 19.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 4.8% 13.5%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.3%
First Round1.1% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 29.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 410 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 35 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 2% -9  0 - 1 -0 +0 B F C+ +1 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 87 @High Point L 64 - 85 6% -11  0 - 2 -11 -6 F D+ C -6 A A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 339 @VMI W 69 - 67 49% +3  1 - 2 -6 -5 C A F -1 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 86 @George Mason L 57 - 79 6% -12  1 - 3 -12 -9 D C F -5 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 272 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 42% -2  2 - 3 -1 -1 C D B +0 C A- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 144 Pacific L 53 - 68 19% -7  2 - 4 -14 -12 F F B+ -5 C+ C+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 322 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 66% -0  3 - 4 -10 +2 D+ C A+ -12 F B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 172 @Florida International L 65 - 88 16% -18  3 - 5 -21 -6 F C- F -15 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 14 40 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  3 - 6 -21 +3 B D- F -21 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 322 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 43% -9  3 - 7 -14 -6 C- F D+ -8 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 117 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 10% -18  3 - 8 -18 -4 D- F A+ -16 F C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 1 167 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 16% -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -3 D+ C+ F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 180 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 18% -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -2 -1 A- B+ F -1 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 202 Queens L 51 - 77 38% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -31 -26 F C- F -8 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 320 West Georgia W 75 - 43 65% +20  4 - 11 1 - 3 +20 +9 A+ F A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 265 @Central Arkansas L 65 - 71 29%
 Sat, Jan 17 279 @North Alabama L 65 - 70 34%
 Thu, Jan 22 294 Bellarmine W 72 - 70 59%
 Sat, Jan 24 253 Eastern Kentucky L 70 - 71 50%
 Thu, Jan 29 167 Lipscomb L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 201 Florida Gulf Coast L 70 - 73 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 202 @Queens L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 320 @West Georgia L 68 - 70 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 345 @Stetson W 69 - 68 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 350 North Florida W 80 - 72 75%
 Thu, Feb 19 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 180 Austin Peay L 65 - 69 36%
 Thu, Feb 26 345 Stetson W 72 - 66 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 350 @North Florida W 77 - 75 56%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -8 -6 D+ D C- -2 F B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.3 3.6 5.3 1.2 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 7.0 2.5 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.5 4.7 0.4 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.2 6.2 1.0 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.5 1.7 0.1 13.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.4 2.0 0.1 12.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.7 11.6 16.6 18.7 16.8 12.4 7.5 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 22.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.3
11-7 4.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.8
10-8 7.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.2
9-9 12.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 12.0
8-10 16.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 16.6
7-11 18.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.5
6-12 16.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.5
5-13 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.7
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%