Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +7.4 #82
Pace 80.4 #11
Improvement -4.0 #338

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #73 A- B+ C C B+
Defense #88 B+ D- B- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #44 1.29 #65 +6.3 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #295 0.60 #338 -2.9 #317
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.17 #17 +3.1 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #41 +6.5 #33
Freethrows 17.2 #198 74% #146 12.7 #173
Second Chance 35.5% #56 1.12 #99 0.40 #54
Turnovers 16.1% #149
Total Offense +4.7 #73

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #188 1.10 #99 +1.2 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.69 #91 +0.8 #138
Three Pointers 41% #200 0.89 #49 +2.6 #88
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #57 +4.6 #55
Freethrows 16.5 #138 70% #94 11.6 #239
Second Chance 32.8% #269 1.18 #319 0.39 #320
Turnovers 18.4% #78
Total Defense +3.0 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #43 0.0% #161
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.6% #48 -8.4% #46
Possession Length 14.8 #15 17.9 #273
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #8 0.15 #96
Improvement -3.3 #345 -0.6 #224

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 9.1% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.0% 9.1% 2.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.1
.500 or above 29.8% 41.0% 18.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 11.1% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.7% 12.7% 28.8%
First Four2.5% 3.6% 1.5%
First Round4.6% 7.1% 2.0%
Second Round1.7% 2.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 47 - 16
Quad 33 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 288 UNC Greensboro W 93 - 64 94% +7  1 - 0 +19 +1 B+ A F +14 A B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 294 Bellarmine W 98 - 71 95% +11  2 - 0 +16 +14 A+ A+ F +2 A+ F C
 Thu, Nov 13 81 California W 99 - 96 64% +14  3 - 0 +7 +17 A+ A+ F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 93 Tulsa W 84 - 83 68% +3  4 - 0 +4 +3 D+ A+ A +1 A+ C D
 Thu, Nov 20 66 Mississippi St. W 98 - 77 47% +8  5 - 0 +29 +23 A+ D+ A+ +5 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 16 Nebraska L 85 - 86 18% -4  5 - 1 +16 +15 A+ A+ B+ +2 D+ D B+
 Tue, Nov 25 31 @Indiana L 69 - 86 18% -13  5 - 2 +0 -2 A+ F F +4 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 1 131 Bowling Green L 66 - 82 81% -9  5 - 3 -17 -1 F A+ A+ -18 D+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 49 Seton Hall L 67 - 78 50% -8  5 - 4 -3 -4 C- D B +2 A+ F C
 Mon, Dec 8 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 49 100% +35  6 - 4 +32 +17 A+ A+ F +11 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 43 @Creighton W 83 - 76 24% +8  7 - 4 +22 +20 B+ A+ A+ +2 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 20 282 South Dakota W 106 - 76 94% +22  8 - 4 +20 +19 A+ A- C -1 B+ D+ D-
 Sun, Dec 28 354 Louisiana Monroe W 94 - 85 98% +6  9 - 4 -7 +1 C+ F D+ -10 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 11 BYU L 73 - 83 19% -6  9 - 5 0 - 1 +7 -0 B+ F B+ +8 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 2 @Arizona L 76 - 101 5% -14  9 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +6 D- B A+ +0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 82 @Arizona St. L 84 - 87 42% -0  9 - 7 0 - 3 +7 +7 D- A+ A- -0 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 50 Central Florida W 86 - 85 50%
 Sat, Jan 17 62 @Oklahoma St. L 88 - 92 34%
 Tue, Jan 20 113 Utah W 87 - 80 74%
 Sat, Jan 24 18 Kansas L 77 - 83 28%
 Tue, Jan 27 59 @West Virginia L 73 - 78 33%
 Sun, Feb 1 6 Iowa St. L 75 - 85 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 45 @TCU L 75 - 82 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 56 Cincinnati W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 5 @Houston L 66 - 82 6%
 Tue, Feb 17 37 Baylor L 82 - 85 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @Texas Tech L 75 - 87 15%
 Wed, Feb 25 73 @Colorado L 83 - 86 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 45 TCU L 78 - 79 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 59 West Virginia W 76 - 75 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 18 @Kansas L 74 - 86 13%
Totals 14 - 17 5 - 13 +8 +5 A- B+ C +3 B+ D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.2 1.4 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.4 4.9 3.6 0.2 9.1 11th
12th 0.2 3.1 6.9 1.1 11.3 12th
13th 0.1 1.8 7.7 3.6 0.1 13.2 13th
14th 0.0 1.4 6.9 6.0 0.7 15.1 14th
15th 0.2 2.0 6.4 6.3 1.6 0.0 16.5 15th
16th 0.3 1.7 4.0 3.7 0.9 0.1 10.8 16th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.0 11.5 16.2 18.8 17.3 12.9 8.1 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 97.2% 2.8% 94.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
11-7 0.6% 95.3% 0.8% 94.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.2%
10-8 1.9% 77.6% 0.3% 77.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 77.5%
9-9 4.2% 52.0% 0.4% 51.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 2.0 51.9%
8-10 8.1% 16.5% 0.2% 16.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 6.8 16.3%
7-11 12.9% 1.9% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.6 1.9%
6-12 17.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 17.3 0.1%
5-13 18.8% 18.8
4-14 16.2% 16.2
3-15 11.5% 11.5
2-16 6.0% 6.0
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.1% 0.1% 6.0% 9.9 93.9 6.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%