Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +3.4 111
Results Rating +8.2 73
Consistency 0.17 279
Pace 62.5 333
Improvement -4.5 334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 68 A F B+ D- A
Defense C- 224 C- D- C+ B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 8 B 65% 49 +8.5 7
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 364 C 38% 173 -5.4 364
Three Pointers 46% 76 A- 39% 15 +6.0 25
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.5 1 A- +6.0 24
1st FG Attempt A 1.20 8
Second Chance F 17.6% 365 C- 1.01 208 F 0.18 362
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 48
Other Turnovers B+ 5.7% 23
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 26
Freethrows D 0.26 314 D 68% 311 D- 0.18 330
Total Offense B +5.0 68

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 101 B- 9.5% 98
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 245 B- 3.9% 94
Three Pointers D+ 79% 285 D 1.4% 305
Total B- 61% 73 C 5.4% 169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 198 B 53% 55 -2.3 98
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 152 D 42% 316 +1.1 279
Three Pointers 41% 188 D- 38% 329 +2.1 283
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 145 C- +1.1 224
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 205
Second Chance C- 31.5% 236 F 1.22 361 D- 0.38 332
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 147
Other Turnovers B- 8.0% 91
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 106
Freethrows A- 0.23 16 D+ 74% 281 B+ 0.17 26
Total Defense C- -1.6 224

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 39 C+ 12.5% 103
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 120 C- 3.8% 247
Three Pointers D 88% 308 C 1.1% 125
Total C+ 53% 129 C+ 6.0% 145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 292 18.1 301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 337 0.13 48
Consistency 0.13 213 0.11 78
Improvement -3.1 326 -1.4 261

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 133 115 100
Results Rating Rank 95 82 51
Conference Record 16 - 4 17 - 3 18 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 27% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round26% 27% 24%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 02 - 1
Quad 38 - 511 - 6
Quad 413 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 147 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 71% +8  95% 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +25 A+ A A+ F -11 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 9 120 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 63% +15  97% 2 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 A+ D B+ B +5 A+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 236 Vermont W 79 - 73 76% +10  95% 3 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 A+ F C+ C- -2 C- F+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 174 Towson L 69 - 72 67% +1  53% 3 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 B D- A+ D- -8 D F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 114 Bradley L 64 - 74 51% -10  1% 3 - 2 D+ -7 D -4 B- F C D+ -3 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 98% +34  97% 4 - 2 A +21 A +12 A+ D C A +10 A A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 27 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 9% -25  0% 4 - 3 F -22 F -21 F+ F F C- -2 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 77 @Dayton W 64 - 61 24% -2  33% 5 - 3 B+ +14 B +7 A F A+ A- +7 A+ C C
 Sun, Dec 28 203 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 61% -0  38% 6 - 3 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +14 A- D+ A+ F -11 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 2 154 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 73% +8  99% 7 - 3 2 - 0 B- +5 C -0 A- F C B +5 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Jan 4 194 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 79% +4  70% 8 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 C- C- A+ D+ -4 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 216 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 63% +8  96% 9 - 3 4 - 0 A- +16 A +11 B C- A+ A- +7 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 36% +5  84% 10 - 3 5 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ F C A- +7 C+ B- A
 Thu, Jan 15 176 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 76% +6  89% 11 - 3 6 - 0 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ F A F -11 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 246 UTEP W 80 - 69 85% +7  95% 12 - 3 7 - 0 C+ +3 A +13 A+ F A+ D- -8 F A A-
 Wed, Jan 21 140 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 46% +5  81% 13 - 3 8 - 0 B +11 A- +10 A+ D C+ C+ +2 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 24 268 Delaware W 67 - 51 88% +7  80% 14 - 3 9 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 A F A- A+ +12 C+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 160 @Middle Tennessee W 81 - 65 52% +12  90% 15 - 3 10 - 0 A +19 A+ +18 A+ F A+ B- +3 A F B
 Wed, Feb 4 268 @Delaware W 75 - 69 74% +1  53% 16 - 3 11 - 0 C+ +3 B +7 A+ F C- C- -3 D- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 207 Missouri St. W 79 - 76 80% +7  86% 17 - 3 12 - 0 C- -3 B- +4 A- F+ C+ D- -6 C- F D
 Wed, Feb 11 176 @New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 56% +1  43% 18 - 3 13 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 C+ B A C -0 C- F C
 Sat, Feb 14 246 @UTEP W 73 - 64 69% +2  68% 19 - 3 14 - 0 B- +7 B+ +9 A F A+ C -0 F+ D B
 Thu, Feb 19 203 Florida International W 90 - 89 OT 80% +1  48% 20 - 3 15 - 0 C- -4 C+ +2 A F B- D- -7 C- F+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 140 Western Kentucky L 73 - 94 69% -8  18% 20 - 4 15 - 1 F -23 C- -1 A+ F C+ F -22 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 26 154 @Kennesaw St. L 65 - 74 51% -3  29% 20 - 5 15 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 B F D- D+ -4 F C+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 194 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 69 59%
 Thu, Mar 5 216 Louisiana Tech W 71 - 62 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 105 Sam Houston St. W 79 - 77 59%
Totals 22 - 6 17 - 3 +3 B +5 C- A- A C- -2 A- D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B C A- A- 48% 13% 46% A A F C- F B+ D D D- C- B D D- C- 38% 21% 41% C C- C- F D- C+ A- D+ B+
1.16 65% 38% 39% +6 +2 1.20 18% 1.0 .18 14% .26 68% .18 1.11 53% 42% 38% +1 0 1.04 32% 1.2 .38 18% .23 74% .19
Nov
7		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ A- C B+ F A F F F+ 35% 22% 43% C D- F F F B C+ A+ B+
1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21 1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22
Nov
9		 Florida Atlantic A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 7% 47% B+ A+ F+ C+ D B+ F A+ D B A C+ A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% C- A+ D+ F F B- F F F
1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19 1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38
Nov
24		 Vermont B- A- D+ A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% A+ A+ F A+ F C+ D+ F F C- C F C- D+ 34% 20% 46% B- C- C F F+ C C+ C C+
1.17 69% 33% 43% +12 +3 1.31 10% 1.3 .14 12% .30 50% .15 1.08 59% 50% 35% +3 0 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 16% .27 73% .20
Nov
25		 Towson B- A+ D- F C+ 44% 6% 50% A+ B F+ C+ D- A+ F A+ F+ D- D F A+ D- 35% 35% 30% B- D D F F C- C+ D+ C
1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14 1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
26		 Bradley D D+ A+ B- C 43% 9% 48% A+ B- F F+ F C A- F D D+ D+ D+ F D- 35% 28% 37% B D F F F A+ B F C-
1.00 55% 50% 36% +1 +2 1.09 17% 0.8 .13 19% .40 52% .21 1.15 63% 38% 41% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.4 .58 23% .28 86% .24
Dec
6		 Coppin St. A A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 6% 55% B+ A+ D C- D C F F F A B+ A+ A A 31% 31% 39% B A C A+ A+ C- C- C+ C
1.35 76% 33% 52% +21 +2 1.49 31% 1.1 .34 16% .12 57% .07 0.74 47% 20% 26% -13 -2 0.71 28% 0.5 .13 22% .34 67% .23
Dec
10		 North Carolina St. F D+ F F 43% 0% 57% A+ F+ F F F F F F F C- D- A- F+ D+ 46% 13% 41% D+ D+ B A+ A+ C- C A B-
0.67 52% 21% -13 +3 0.82 15% 0.3 .05 25% .20 30% .06 1.26 68% 29% 41% +8 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .24 12% .32 68% .22
Dec
20		 Dayton B B+ F A+ A- 55% 12% 33% A+ A F F F A+ F F F A- A+ F B- A 27% 16% 57% A- A+ D B+ C C A+ D A
1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07 1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24
Dec
28		 Florida International A A+ F+ B+ A- 34% 5% 61% B A- D C- D+ A+ F+ B- D- F A+ F D- C 60% 16% 24% F C- F F F C+ D- C- D-
1.26 71% 33% 38% +8 +2 1.21 31% 1.0 .31 13% .24 75% .18 1.22 42% 78% 38% -1 +2 1.04 50% 1.3 .63 18% .37 70% .25
Jan
2		 Kennesaw St. C C+ A+ A- B 56% 4% 40% A+ A- F C+ F C C- B C+ B A+ A- A A+ 40% 12% 48% C- A+ F A C- C+ A+ C A+
1.11 57% 50% 40% +4 +3 1.16 14% 1.0 .14 16% .39 79% .31 1.00 38% 29% 28% -14 +1 0.77 46% 0.8 .35 18% .22 69% .15
Jan
4		 Jacksonville St. B+ D- F B- D+ 50% 4% 46% A C- B- D- C- A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ A+ B A- 51% 10% 39% D B+ D- F F D- C F F
1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39 1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Louisiana Tech A C F B B- 46% 8% 46% A- B D+ C+ C- A+ C- A C+ A- A+ C+ F C+ 34% 22% 44% B- C+ A A+ A+ F A- A+ A+
1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24 0.92 29% 36% 41% -6 0 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09
Jan
10		 Sam Houston St. B+ A- A+ C+ A 58% 6% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F C A- A A A- A+ F F B- 46% 16% 38% D C+ D- A B- A B- F+ C
1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30 1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20
Jan
15		 New Mexico St. B+ B+ D+ A+ A+ 52% 14% 34% A A+ F F F A D+ C+ C- F C- C F F 19% 37% 44% A+ D- C- F F D A+ A+ A+
1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27 1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
17		 UTEP A A+ A C+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A+ A+ F C- F A+ F A+ F D- D+ F F F 33% 23% 44% D- F A+ C- A A- A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16 1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04
Jan
21		 Western Kentucky A- F F A+ A+ 33% 2% 65% A+ A+ F A+ D C+ B C+ B C+ A B+ F D+ 32% 21% 47% B C- C- F F A C- A+ B-
1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32 1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Delaware D+ B D A A- 36% 6% 57% A A F F F A- D F F A+ F A+ D C 33% 28% 40% B+ C+ A+ F A- A+ D A+ B
1.11 65% 33% 41% +8 +2 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 10% .24 62% .15 0.85 69% 27% 38% +3 -1 1.05 4% 2.0 .08 27% .29 54% .16
Jan
29		 Middle Tennessee A+ A A+ A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ F F F A+ F F+ F B- A+ A C+ A 26% 24% 50% B- A D F F B D- B+ D+
1.32 70% 75% 48% +17 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12 1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20
Feb
4		 Delaware B A+ F A A+ 30% 9% 61% A- A+ F F F C- A+ A A+ C- F F D F 28% 24% 48% B+ D- A+ D- A- D+ A F B
1.20 85% 25% 41% +13 +1 1.30 9% 0.0 .00 14% .37 90% .34 1.11 71% 50% 38% +9 -1 1.18 8% 1.0 .08 16% .17 89% .15
Feb
7		 Missouri St. B- A- A+ D B- 48% 11% 41% A+ A- F B+ F+ C+ A+ F A- D- B B+ F D+ 38% 29% 33% C C- D+ F F D F A+ C-
1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32 1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 New Mexico St. B- D A+ D C- 42% 7% 51% A+ C+ D A+ B A F A+ F C F D A- C- 34% 21% 45% D C- B- F F C A+ F A+
1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13 1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12
Feb
14		 UTEP B+ A+ C C+ A- 37% 10% 53% A- A F F F A+ D+ F F C F+ B- F F 28% 34% 38% B F+ B F D B B D B-
1.19 78% 40% 35% +8 +1 1.20 24% 0.8 .18 11% .33 56% .18 1.04 69% 31% 44% +7 -3 1.11 23% 1.3 .31 20% .22 73% .16
Feb
19		 Florida International C+ D+ A A+ A 47% 4% 49% A A F C- F B- B- C B- D- A- B- F C- 54% 21% 25% D C- F C F+ B C+ F F+
1.14 54% 50% 48% +9 +3 1.25 17% 1.0 .17 19% .34 73% .25 1.12 48% 33% 50% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.1 .44 20% .30 89% .27
Feb
21		 Western Kentucky C- A+ A+ F+ A 51% 2% 47% A+ A+ F B F C+ A+ F C+ F C A+ F F 47% 14% 39% F+ F D+ F F D+ F+ F F
1.05 78% 100% 29% +8 +3 1.24 4% 1.0 .04 17% .51 59% .30 1.36 54% 14% 50% +4 +2 1.14 34% 1.9 .66 13% .38 96% .36
Feb
26		 Kennesaw St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 45% 2% 52% A B F A+ F D- B A A D+ A C- F F 48% 17% 35% C F C+ B- C+ B A+ A+ A+
1.03 58% 0% 36% +1 +3 1.10 4% 2.0 .09 19% .45 83% .37 1.17 43% 38% 65% +9 +1 1.23 33% 0.9 .30 19% .23 58% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 3.9 22.5 44.2 29.4 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.9 22.5 44.2 29.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 29.4    29.4
17-3 100.0% 44.2    44.2
16-4 100.0% 22.5    22.5
15-5 100.0% 3.9    1.4 2.5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 97.5 2.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 29.4% 29.5% 29.5% 12.1 0.7 6.2 1.8 0.0 20.7
17-3 44.2% 26.2% 26.2% 12.5 0.1 5.4 5.8 0.2 0.0 32.6
16-4 22.5% 22.8% 22.8% 12.7 0.0 1.6 3.2 0.2 17.4
15-5 3.9% 20.4% 20.4% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.1
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 12.4 73.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.7% 100.0% 12.1 8.3 71.1 20.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.5%
Lose Out 1.4%