Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#97
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#133
Pace64.4#311
Improvement-4.8#364

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#69
First Shot+4.4#60
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks+8.8#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#55
Freethrows-3.4#337
Improvement-4.0#364

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#150
First Shot+3.9#66
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#338
Layups/Dunks+0.9#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#47
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement-0.7#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.1% 29.2% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 13.1
.500 or above 94.2% 94.3% 71.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 94.5% 78.8%
Conference Champion 41.5% 41.6% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 4.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round29.1% 29.2% 17.6%
Second Round5.1% 5.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 510 - 8
Quad 411 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 151 College of Charleston W 90-75 79%     1 - 0 +11.9 +25.9 -12.2
  Sun, Nov 9 111 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 68%     2 - 0 +20.5 +16.0 +5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 171 Vermont W 79-73 73%     3 - 0 +4.8 +5.7 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 128 Towson L 69-72 62%     3 - 1 -0.9 +5.5 -6.7
  Wed, Nov 26 112 Bradley L 64-74 58%     3 - 2 -6.7 -1.6 -6.0
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 82-57 99%    
  Wed, Dec 10 29 @North Carolina St. L 74-85 15%    
  Sat, Dec 20 78 @Dayton L 68-73 32%    
  Sun, Dec 28 215 @Florida International W 76-70 70%    
  Fri, Jan 2 163 Kennesaw St. W 84-75 80%    
  Sun, Jan 4 222 Jacksonville St. W 72-60 86%    
  Thu, Jan 8 194 @Louisiana Tech W 68-64 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 170 @Sam Houston St. W 76-73 63%    
  Thu, Jan 15 108 New Mexico St. W 70-66 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 234 UTEP W 74-61 87%    
  Wed, Jan 21 132 @Western Kentucky W 77-76 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 241 Delaware W 78-65 87%    
  Wed, Jan 28 149 @Middle Tennessee W 75-73 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 241 @Delaware W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Feb 7 239 Missouri St. W 74-61 87%    
  Wed, Feb 11 108 @New Mexico St. L 67-69 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 234 @UTEP W 71-64 71%    
  Thu, Feb 19 215 Florida International W 79-67 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 132 Western Kentucky W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 163 @Kennesaw St. W 81-78 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 222 @Jacksonville St. W 69-63 70%    
  Thu, Mar 5 194 Louisiana Tech W 71-61 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 170 Sam Houston St. W 79-70 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.2 9.8 10.1 7.1 4.0 1.2 41.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.8 6.7 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.8 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.2 6.2 8.4 10.7 13.4 14.1 13.7 11.1 7.3 4.0 1.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 99.9% 4.0    4.0 0.0
18-2 97.7% 7.1    6.7 0.4
17-3 90.5% 10.1    8.3 1.7 0.1
16-4 71.2% 9.8    6.8 2.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 43.5% 6.2    2.9 2.6 0.6 0.0
14-6 19.7% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.5% 41.5 30.6 8.7 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 67.1% 63.5% 3.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 10.1%
19-1 4.0% 58.9% 58.3% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.7 1.4%
18-2 7.3% 50.9% 50.8% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 0.3%
17-3 11.1% 42.7% 42.7% 12.1 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.1 0.1 6.4
16-4 13.7% 35.5% 35.5% 12.4 0.3 2.7 1.7 0.3 8.9
15-5 14.1% 31.2% 31.2% 12.6 0.1 1.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.7
14-6 13.4% 26.0% 26.0% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.0 9.9
13-7 10.7% 20.8% 20.8% 13.2 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 8.5
12-8 8.4% 16.3% 16.3% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 7.1
11-9 6.2% 10.9% 10.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-10 4.2% 6.8% 6.8% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
9-11 2.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
8-12 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.1% 29.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.8 11.9 9.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 70.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.3 11.4 22.9 25.7 31.4 8.6