Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.7 #95
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #67
Pace 64.3 #311
Improvement -0.5 #218

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #72 A F A F A+
Defense #135 B- F C+ B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #5 1.27 #72 +8.7 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #360 0.61 #337 -5.4 #362
Three Pointers 44% #133 1.12 #44 +3.7 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #27 +7.1 #27
Freethrows 14.3 #326 67% #317 9.7 #333
Second Chance 21.8% #355 1.02 #218 0.22 #348
Turnovers 13.2% #19
Total Offense +4.7 #72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 0.95 #8 +3.8 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #140 0.89 #335 -1.8 #305
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.00 #171 +1.0 #141
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #84 +3.1 #81
Freethrows 13.5 #28 75% #301 10.2 #327
Second Chance 34.0% #299 1.19 #325 0.40 #337
Turnovers 17.3% #129
Total Defense +1.0 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.8% #3 -0.1% #155
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.6% #58 -5.8% #75
Possession Length 18.3 #276 18.2 #316
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #296 0.12 #30
Improvement -2.0 #306 +1.5 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.6% 36.4% 28.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Conference Champion 78.6% 83.4% 62.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round34.5% 36.4% 28.3%
Second Round5.2% 5.8% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 310 - 412 - 6
Quad 411 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 155 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 79% +8  1 - 0 +12 +26 A+ A+ A+ -12 D- F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 102 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 64% +15  2 - 0 +22 +19 A+ D A +4 A+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 195 Vermont W 79 - 73 77% +10  3 - 0 +4 +6 A+ F C+ -2 C+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 166 Towson L 69 - 72 73% +1  3 - 1 -4 +4 B F A+ -8 D+ F C
 Wed, Nov 26 114 Bradley L 64 - 74 58% -10  3 - 2 -6 -2 B F B- -6 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99% +34  4 - 2 +19 +11 A+ D+ D+ +9 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 24 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 12% -25  4 - 3 -21 -18 F F F -5 D A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 70 @Dayton W 64 - 61 30% -2  5 - 3 +14 +10 A F A+ +5 A+ C- B
 Sun, Dec 28 172 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 64% -0  6 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +16 A+ F A+ -11 C F B
 Fri, Jan 2 159 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 80% +8  7 - 3 2 - 0 +5 +3 A+ F C +2 A+ D- C-
 Sun, Jan 4 203 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 85% +4  8 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +11 C C A+ -7 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 234 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 74% +8  9 - 3 4 - 0 +15 +13 B D+ A+ +5 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 141 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 56% +5  10 - 3 5 - 0 +12 +9 A+ F C +3 C B A+
 Thu, Jan 15 139 New Mexico St. W 75 - 67 77%
 Sat, Jan 17 257 UTEP W 76 - 62 91%
 Wed, Jan 21 150 @Western Kentucky W 78 - 76 59%
 Sat, Jan 24 271 Delaware W 75 - 60 92%
 Wed, Jan 28 120 @Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 51%
 Wed, Feb 4 271 @Delaware W 72 - 63 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 192 Missouri St. W 75 - 64 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 139 @New Mexico St. W 72 - 70 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 @UTEP W 73 - 65 77%
 Thu, Feb 19 172 Florida International W 82 - 72 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 150 Western Kentucky W 81 - 73 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 159 @Kennesaw St. W 80 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 203 @Jacksonville St. W 72 - 67 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 234 Louisiana Tech W 72 - 59 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 Sam Houston St. W 81 - 73 76%
Totals 21 - 7 16 - 4 +6 +5 A F A +1 B- F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.2 11.1 16.7 19.2 15.5 8.5 2.7 78.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.9 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.8 9.8 15.4 18.5 19.7 15.5 8.5 2.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
19-1 100.0% 8.5    8.5 0.0
18-2 99.8% 15.5    15.1 0.3
17-3 97.4% 19.2    17.9 1.2
16-4 90.0% 16.7    14.0 2.7 0.0
15-5 72.1% 11.1    7.1 3.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 42.3% 4.2    1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 13.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 78.6% 78.6 66.9 10.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.7% 57.9% 54.6% 3.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.1 7.4%
19-1 8.5% 48.5% 48.1% 0.4% 11.4 0.1 2.3 1.8 0.0 4.4 0.8%
18-2 15.5% 43.6% 43.6% 11.8 0.0 1.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 8.7
17-3 19.7% 37.6% 37.6% 12.0 0.9 5.4 1.0 0.1 12.3
16-4 18.5% 33.2% 33.2% 12.2 0.4 4.0 1.8 0.1 12.4
15-5 15.4% 29.2% 29.2% 12.5 0.1 2.4 1.8 0.2 10.9
14-6 9.8% 25.3% 25.3% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.2 7.3
13-7 5.8% 18.6% 18.6% 12.9 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.7
12-8 2.5% 15.5% 15.5% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
11-9 1.1% 6.8% 6.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 0.3% 9.4% 9.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.6% 34.4% 0.1% 12.0 65.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 10.5 1.0 2.4 2.0 8.9 21.2 56.3 8.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 9.0% 10.9 1.3 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 6.9% 10.8 1.1 5.7