Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.5 #65
Expected Predictive Rating +5.4 #91
Pace 65.6 #281
Improvement -1.4 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #88 C C A B F
Defense #61 B- B- B B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.32 #38 -3.2 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #10 0.78 #144 +5.2 #9
Three Pointers 38% #249 1.03 #157 -1.2 #236
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #160 +0.8 #158
Freethrows 18.8 #109 75% #97 14.2 #86
Second Chance 30.2% #198 1.07 #154 0.32 #159
Turnovers 13.1% #18
Total Offense +4.0 #88

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #334 1.05 #56 +5.9 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #86 0.72 #131 -0.8 #235
Three Pointers 45% #68 1.02 #203 -2.3 #283
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #91 +2.8 #91
Freethrows 16.8 #159 65% #5 10.9 #290
Second Chance 28.7% #111 0.98 #95 0.28 #83
Turnovers 18.6% #71
Total Defense +4.5 #61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.6% #360 -1.8% #50
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #77 -3.7% #108
Possession Length 16.9 #133 18.6 #338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #242 0.13 #43
Improvement -2.4 #317 +1.0 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 12.2% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 11.7% 2.8%
Average Seed 9.6 9.4 9.8
.500 or above 17.2% 34.6% 13.8%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 18.0% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.9% 16.4% 36.1%
First Four1.8% 4.0% 1.3%
First Round3.5% 10.3% 2.1%
Second Round1.4% 4.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 63 - 15
Quad 23 - 35 - 17
Quad 32 - 18 - 18
Quad 46 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 266 SE Louisiana W 88 - 58 94% +12  1 - 0 +21 +18 A C A+ +5 B- A B
 Fri, Nov 7 354 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 65 98% +17  2 - 0 +5 -0 C- C- D +4 B- B+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 83 Memphis W 83 - 77 68% +5  3 - 0 +10 +18 A+ B- A+ -8 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 60 95% +11  4 - 0 +11 +15 F B A+ -1 D+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 180 Austin Peay W 72 - 65 89% +7  5 - 0 +2 +1 F A+ A +1 A D B+
 Tue, Nov 25 22 Iowa L 69 - 74 24% -2  5 - 1 +11 +10 C A+ B +0 A+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 113 Utah L 74 - 75 68% -3  5 - 2 +3 +6 A- A- D -4 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 35 Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 41% -8  5 - 3 +2 +0 F B A+ +1 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 15 @St. John's L 58 - 63 14% -5  5 - 4 +15 -6 F C- F +22 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 210 Southern Miss W 71 - 67 86% +3  6 - 4 +1 +2 D+ D+ A+ -0 D+ C+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 300 Alabama A&M W 80 - 66 93% +13  7 - 4 +6 +11 A+ B- A- -4 D- C C
 Sun, Dec 21 24 North Carolina St. L 62 - 76 24% -15  7 - 5 +2 -4 C F C +6 C+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 347 Alcorn St. W 79 - 43 98% +14  8 - 5 +21 +3 C+ F D+ +19 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 3 54 @Oklahoma L 70 - 86 33% -5  8 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +4 D D+ A+ -7 D- C+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 26 Arkansas L 87 - 94 35% -7  8 - 7 0 - 2 +5 +15 A+ F A- -9 D C+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 53 Missouri W 76 - 69 55% -1  9 - 7 1 - 2 +14 +8 C- C+ A+ +6 C A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 23 @Georgia L 75 - 85 16%
 Sat, Jan 17 66 @Mississippi St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Tue, Jan 20 27 Auburn L 74 - 78 37%
 Sat, Jan 24 25 @Kentucky L 68 - 78 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 9 Vanderbilt L 71 - 80 20%
 Tue, Feb 3 20 @Tennessee L 64 - 75 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 41 @Texas L 72 - 79 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 14 Alabama L 79 - 86 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 66 Mississippi St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Wed, Feb 18 40 @Texas A&M L 73 - 80 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 12 Florida L 70 - 78 22%
 Wed, Feb 25 44 LSU L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 @Auburn L 71 - 81 19%
 Wed, Mar 4 9 @Vanderbilt L 68 - 83 9%
 Sat, Mar 7 69 South Carolina W 71 - 68 62%
Totals 13 - 18 5 - 13 +9 +4 C C A +5 B- B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.7 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.2 3.0 2.7 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 5.1 0.9 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 5.4 3.7 0.2 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.9 1.1 0.0 12.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 3.0 8.1 3.6 0.1 0.0 15.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.6 5.4 0.6 17.2 15th
16th 1.0 4.2 7.6 5.6 1.1 0.0 19.5 16th
Total 1.0 4.6 11.0 16.6 19.1 18.5 13.8 8.3 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 98.0% 5.9% 92.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9%
11-7 0.7% 92.5% 4.8% 87.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 92.1%
10-8 2.0% 67.4% 1.5% 65.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 66.9%
9-9 4.1% 36.4% 0.9% 35.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.0 2.6 35.8%
8-10 8.3% 5.8% 0.2% 5.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 7.8 5.5%
7-11 13.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.5%
6-12 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.0%
5-13 19.1% 19.1
4-14 16.6% 16.6
3-15 11.0% 11.0
2-16 4.6% 4.6
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18
Total 100% 4.4% 0.2% 4.2% 9.6 95.6 4.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%