Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#84
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#156
Pace70.2#171
Improvement-1.4#293

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#74
First Shot+3.1#84
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#107
Layup/Dunks-0.8#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-0.5#202
Improvement-0.6#242

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#98
First Shot+1.6#121
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#128
Layups/Dunks+4.0#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#165
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement-0.8#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 11.5% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.3% 11.2% 4.5%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.2
.500 or above 18.5% 28.0% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.0% 13.0% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 34.1% 29.0% 37.7%
First Four2.0% 2.7% 1.4%
First Round6.5% 10.0% 3.9%
Second Round2.9% 4.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 12
Quad 24 - 66 - 18
Quad 32 - 18 - 19
Quad 44 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 242 North Alabama W 86-62 90%     1 - 0 +16.4 +7.1 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 10 4 Iowa St. L 80-96 12%     1 - 1 +3.9 +11.0 -5.9
  Sat, Nov 15 250 SE Louisiana W 75-68 91%     2 - 1 -0.9 -2.4 +1.1
  Thu, Nov 20 54 Kansas St. L 77-98 39%     2 - 2 -11.3 +2.5 -12.4
  Fri, Nov 21 101 New Mexico L 78-80 58%     2 - 3 +2.7 +5.8 -3.0
  Mon, Nov 24 205 New Orleans W 81-78 OT 88%     3 - 3 -2.9 -2.2 -0.9
  Fri, Nov 28 42 SMU L 78-80 42%    
  Wed, Dec 3 104 @Georgia Tech L 72-73 47%    
  Sun, Dec 7 77 San Francisco L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Dec 13 125 Utah W 79-75 65%    
  Tue, Dec 16 232 LIU Brooklyn W 82-68 90%    
  Sat, Dec 20 70 Memphis W 77-75 57%    
  Mon, Dec 29 266 Alabama St. W 83-68 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 36 @Texas L 72-81 21%    
  Wed, Jan 7 52 Oklahoma L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 16 @Kentucky L 71-85 11%    
  Tue, Jan 13 10 Alabama L 81-90 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 49 Mississippi L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Jan 21 60 @Texas A&M L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Jan 24 19 Vanderbilt L 77-83 29%    
  Wed, Jan 28 40 @LSU L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 33 @Missouri L 74-83 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 25 Arkansas L 75-79 35%    
  Wed, Feb 11 14 Tennessee L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 49 @Mississippi L 71-78 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 23 Auburn L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 88 @South Carolina L 72-75 41%    
  Wed, Feb 25 10 @Alabama L 78-93 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 33 Missouri L 77-80 38%    
  Tue, Mar 3 17 @Florida L 72-85 12%    
  Sat, Mar 7 34 Georgia L 82-85 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.2 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.9 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 2.5 0.3 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 4.0 1.0 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.3 2.9 0.2 8.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.7 0.9 0.0 11.0 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 4.7 6.4 2.0 0.1 14.1 14th
15th 0.4 2.2 5.8 6.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 18.3 15th
16th 1.4 4.9 7.4 6.4 2.3 0.4 22.9 16th
Total 1.4 5.2 9.6 13.2 14.6 15.4 12.8 10.4 7.3 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.7% 99.1% 4.7% 94.4% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
11-7 1.5% 88.2% 3.1% 85.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 87.9%
10-8 2.7% 71.0% 1.5% 69.5% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 70.5%
9-9 4.7% 40.5% 0.4% 40.1% 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 2.8 40.2%
8-10 7.3% 12.7% 0.0% 12.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 6.4 12.6%
7-11 10.4% 2.3% 0.1% 2.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.2 2.2%
6-12 12.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 12.7 0.1%
5-13 15.4% 15.4
4-14 14.6% 14.6
3-15 13.2% 13.2
2-16 9.6% 9.6
1-17 5.2% 5.2
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 7.5% 0.2% 7.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.1 92.5 7.3%