Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.4 #66
Expected Predictive Rating +8.6 #71
Pace 70.1 #151
Improvement +3.3 #41

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #83 C+ B- B C- C-
Defense #68 A B- D B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.27 #73 +0.6 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #131 0.85 #64 +2.1 #77
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.96 #242 -1.0 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.7 #131
Freethrows 16.1 #254 73% #169 11.8 #234
Second Chance 32.4% #132 1.11 #103 0.36 #91
Turnovers 14.6% #64
Total Offense +4.3 #83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.07 #72 +7.1 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #11 0.74 #154 -3.1 #352
Three Pointers 42% #152 0.85 #25 +2.8 #83
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #19 +6.8 #18
Freethrows 15.0 #71 76% #308 11.4 #260
Second Chance 26.6% #54 1.09 #247 0.29 #105
Turnovers 14.7% #299
Total Defense +4.2 #68

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #251 -3.6% #10
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #120 -10.0% #29
Possession Length 16.4 #97 17.5 #214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.14 #70
Improvement +1.1 #116 +2.2 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 13.8% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.4% 13.6% 5.3%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.8
.500 or above 32.8% 42.3% 18.2%
.500 or above in Conference 16.9% 23.1% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 8.0% 27.0%
First Four3.9% 5.0% 2.2%
First Round8.4% 11.2% 4.2%
Second Round3.2% 4.3% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 63 - 12
Quad 24 - 48 - 16
Quad 32 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 279 North Alabama W 86 - 62 94% +5  1 - 0 +14 +7 B- F A+ +7 B+ B- B
 Mon, Nov 10 6 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 13% -11  1 - 1 +5 +13 A+ A+ F -7 B+ D D-
 Sat, Nov 15 266 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 94% +5  2 - 1 -2 -4 D+ D+ D +1 A B F
 Thu, Nov 20 74 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 53% -8  2 - 2 -13 +2 B- F C -14 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 48 New Mexico L 78 - 80 40% -2  2 - 3 +9 +9 B+ D+ A+ -0 A- C D+
 Mon, Nov 24 245 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 93% -4  3 - 3 -5 -7 D- B+ F +2 A- A- C+
 Fri, Nov 28 30 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 38% +1  3 - 4 +6 +1 D C- A+ +5 A+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 3 111 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 56% +8  4 - 4 +19 +12 B A+ D+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 103 San Francisco L 62 - 65 63% -5  4 - 5 +2 +0 D+ C A+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 113 Utah W 82 - 74 67% -6  5 - 5 +12 +9 A+ F A+ +3 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 219 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 91% +3  6 - 5 -2 +9 C B+ A+ -11 C- B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 83 Memphis W 71 - 66 67% +4  7 - 5 +9 +3 B- D+ C- +6 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 306 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 96% +18  8 - 5 +27 +16 B A+ B +11 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 41 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 26% +1  9 - 5 1 - 0 +18 +17 B A+ B- +1 B+ B D+
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 55% +5  10 - 5 2 - 0 +26 +5 F A+ B- +23 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 25 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 17% -4  10 - 6 2 - 1 -5 +6 A B F -12 C- F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 14 Alabama L 82 - 97 26% -5  10 - 7 2 - 2 +0 +5 D+ C A+ -3 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 65 Mississippi W 74 - 71 60%
 Wed, Jan 21 40 @Texas A&M L 77 - 84 24%
 Sat, Jan 24 9 Vanderbilt L 74 - 83 20%
 Wed, Jan 28 44 @LSU L 73 - 79 27%
 Sat, Jan 31 53 @Missouri L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 26 Arkansas L 80 - 84 36%
 Wed, Feb 11 20 Tennessee L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 65 @Mississippi L 71 - 74 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 27 Auburn L 77 - 81 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 69 @South Carolina L 71 - 74 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 14 @Alabama L 80 - 93 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 Missouri W 77 - 76 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 12 @Florida L 69 - 83 9%
 Sat, Mar 7 23 Georgia L 81 - 85 34%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 11 +8 +4 C+ B- B +4 A B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.2 3.0 6th
7th 0.5 2.8 1.1 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.1 0.2 5.7 8th
9th 1.0 5.0 1.7 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.3 4.3 4.4 0.3 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 2.0 6.9 1.7 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 6.3 5.0 0.3 12.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 3.4 7.4 1.4 0.0 12.5 13th
14th 0.1 2.1 6.8 3.3 0.1 12.4 14th
15th 0.0 1.2 4.5 4.1 0.5 10.3 15th
16th 0.7 2.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.1 16th
Total 0.7 4.2 9.6 15.8 19.9 18.9 14.0 9.0 4.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 32.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 97.7% 97.7% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
12-6 0.8% 95.4% 2.0% 93.4% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.3%
11-7 2.0% 85.3% 1.5% 83.8% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 85.1%
10-8 4.8% 70.6% 0.6% 69.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.4 70.4%
9-9 9.0% 38.6% 0.3% 38.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 0.1 5.6 38.4%
8-10 14.0% 5.9% 0.2% 5.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.2 5.7%
7-11 18.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.8 0.3%
6-12 19.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 19.9 0.0%
5-13 15.8% 15.8
4-14 9.6% 9.6
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 0.2% 10.3% 9.7 89.5 10.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%