North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.8 #24
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 #47
Pace 71.2 #118
Improvement +0.2 #176

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #23 A A- A+ B- B-
Defense #29 C+ A- A+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #187 1.32 #37 +2.9 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #272 0.73 #206 -1.8 #267
Three Pointers 46% #89 1.17 #18 +6.1 #27
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #23 +7.2 #23
Freethrows 17.5 #179 79% #19 13.9 #111
Second Chance 31.8% #146 1.31 #4 0.42 #34
Turnovers 12.8% #13
Total Offense +9.2 #23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.08 #84 +4.5 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #342 0.78 #225 +2.1 #41
Three Pointers 53% #7 1.00 #164 -5.4 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #141 +1.2 #139
Freethrows 17.9 #216 69% #53 12.4 #187
Second Chance 23.3% #12 1.03 #158 0.24 #24
Turnovers 21.5% #11
Total Defense +6.6 #29

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #115 0.8% #237
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.9% #26 -3.1% #128
Possession Length 15.5 #36 18.7 #344
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #56 0.18 #195
Improvement -1.6 #278 +1.8 #81

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.4% 7.8% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 26.9% 28.1% 14.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.7% 85.7% 73.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.1% 84.1% 72.0%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 95.5% 84.6%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.3% 5.9% 10.2%
First Round82.2% 83.3% 69.3%
Second Round53.5% 54.6% 42.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.9% 20.5% 13.6%
Elite Eight7.7% 8.0% 4.4%
Final Four2.9% 3.0% 1.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 9
Quad 28 - 213 - 11
Quad 35 - 018 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 338 NC Central W 114 - 65 99% +28  1 - 0 +35 +30 A+ A+ A+ +3 D B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 115 UAB W 94 - 70 91% +11  2 - 0 +25 +16 A+ A+ F +8 A B- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 288 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 98% +15  3 - 0 +36 +24 A- A+ A+ +10 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 78% +4  4 - 0 +14 +11 C+ A+ F +2 A- B C+
 Mon, Nov 24 49 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 68% -8  4 - 1 -0 +7 A- D A+ -6 D- F A
 Tue, Nov 25 78 Boise St. W 81 - 70 79% +5  5 - 1 +18 +13 A+ F B- +5 C A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 41 Texas L 97 - 102 63% -4  5 - 2 +7 +24 A+ A+ A+ -17 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 27 @Auburn L 73 - 83 41% -5  5 - 3 +8 +5 C+ F A+ +3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 218 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 97% +3  6 - 3 +6 +2 C- A+ D- +5 A- B+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 95 Liberty W 85 - 45 88% +25  7 - 3 +43 +15 A+ F A+ +29 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 18 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 57% -1  7 - 4 +13 +5 B C A+ +7 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 334 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 99% +24  8 - 4 +22 +28 A+ A+ A+ -7 A- F C
 Sun, Dec 21 65 Mississippi W 76 - 62 76% +15  9 - 4 +23 +8 A+ A+ F +15 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 57 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 81% +7  10 - 4 1 - 0 +19 -1 C+ F C+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 17 Virginia L 61 - 76 56% -12  10 - 5 1 - 1 -1 -0 D C- C+ -2 D D A+
 Tue, Jan 6 151 @Boston College W 79 - 71 87% +7  11 - 5 2 - 1 +11 +24 A+ A+ A+ -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 117 @Florida St. W 113 - 69 83% +24  12 - 5 3 - 1 +50 +30 A+ A+ A+ +15 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 111 Georgia Tech W 85 - 70 92%
 Tue, Jan 20 33 @Clemson L 71 - 72 45%
 Sat, Jan 24 88 @Pittsburgh W 77 - 71 72%
 Tue, Jan 27 61 Syracuse W 82 - 72 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 57 @Wake Forest W 80 - 77 62%
 Tue, Feb 3 30 @SMU L 80 - 82 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Virginia Tech W 82 - 72 83%
 Mon, Feb 9 19 @Louisville L 79 - 83 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 35 Miami (FL) W 82 - 77 68%
 Tue, Feb 17 29 North Carolina W 80 - 76 64%
 Tue, Feb 24 17 @Virginia L 73 - 77 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 71 @Notre Dame W 74 - 69 67%
 Mon, Mar 2 7 Duke L 76 - 78 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 77 Stanford W 81 - 70 85%
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +16 +9 A A- A+ +7 C+ A- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.4 0.3 6.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 5.5 2.5 0.3 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.8 3.9 0.4 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.9 5.9 0.9 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.0 7.7 1.8 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 7.2 2.8 0.1 12.9 6th
7th 1.0 5.0 3.5 0.3 9.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 3.4 0.5 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 7.9 12.4 17.5 19.9 17.4 11.7 5.7 1.8 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-2 80.9% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 48.3% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 12.0% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 3.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.7% 99.9% 21.3% 78.6% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 11.7% 99.9% 18.1% 81.8% 5.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.2 3.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 17.4% 98.9% 12.7% 86.2% 6.8 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.1 5.4 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.7%
12-6 19.9% 95.7% 8.7% 87.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.4 5.7 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.9 95.3%
11-7 17.5% 88.2% 5.6% 82.6% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.8 4.3 3.8 1.1 0.0 2.1 87.5%
10-8 12.4% 73.2% 3.8% 69.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.3 2.0 0.0 3.3 72.1%
9-9 7.9% 47.5% 3.1% 44.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 0.0 4.1 45.8%
8-10 3.5% 18.7% 1.4% 17.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 17.5%
7-11 1.5% 3.4% 0.3% 3.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.0%
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 84.7% 9.6% 75.1% 7.5 15.3 83.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 59.1 27.3 13.6