North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#29
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#63
Pace75.1#58
Improvement-3.9#360

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#10
First Shot+8.9#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#87
Layup/Dunks+3.0#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#80
Freethrows+3.0#41
Improvement-1.1#284

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#92
First Shot+1.9#111
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#126
Layups/Dunks+6.2#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#311
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement-2.7#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 3.7% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 9.9% 16.5% 6.6%
Top 6 Seed 26.2% 39.1% 19.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.2% 84.1% 64.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.7% 83.0% 63.2%
Average Seed 7.2 6.7 7.6
.500 or above 92.0% 97.1% 89.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 84.7% 75.2%
Conference Champion 5.6% 7.2% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Four5.9% 4.3% 6.6%
First Round68.5% 81.9% 61.7%
Second Round42.9% 54.4% 37.1%
Sweet Sixteen16.4% 22.4% 13.3%
Elite Eight6.4% 8.6% 5.3%
Final Four2.3% 3.3% 1.8%
Championship Game0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 27 - 312 - 11
Quad 35 - 117 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 350 NC Central W 114-65 99%     1 - 0 +33.8 +29.6 +2.3
  Fri, Nov 7 107 UAB W 94-70 87%     2 - 0 +25.3 +15.6 +8.2
  Wed, Nov 12 287 UNC Greensboro W 110-64 97%     3 - 0 +36.2 +26.2 +7.3
  Mon, Nov 17 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 85-79 73%     4 - 0 +13.1 +13.3 -0.4
  Mon, Nov 24 76 Seton Hall L 74-85 72%     4 - 1 -3.4 +2.9 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 25 61 Boise St. W 81-70 66%     5 - 1 +20.3 +14.6 +5.7
  Wed, Nov 26 36 Texas L 97-102 54%     5 - 2 +7.5 +25.7 -18.0
  Wed, Dec 3 23 @Auburn L 81-85 33%    
  Sat, Dec 6 218 UNC Asheville W 91-71 97%    
  Wed, Dec 10 97 Liberty W 85-74 85%    
  Sat, Dec 13 18 Kansas W 80-79 50%    
  Wed, Dec 17 307 Texas Southern W 94-70 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 49 Mississippi W 81-78 61%    
  Wed, Dec 31 37 Wake Forest W 84-80 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 39 Virginia W 82-78 65%    
  Tue, Jan 6 127 @Boston College W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 55 @Florida St. W 88-87 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 Georgia Tech W 84-72 86%    
  Tue, Jan 20 38 @Clemson L 76-78 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 99 @Pittsburgh W 79-74 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 64 Syracuse W 84-76 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 37 @Wake Forest L 81-83 44%    
  Tue, Feb 3 42 @SMU L 85-86 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 63 Virginia Tech W 86-78 77%    
  Mon, Feb 9 9 @Louisville L 80-89 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 44 Miami (FL) W 85-80 66%    
  Tue, Feb 17 26 North Carolina W 85-83 59%    
  Tue, Feb 24 39 @Virginia L 79-81 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 66 @Notre Dame W 77-75 57%    
  Mon, Mar 2 2 Duke L 78-84 29%    
  Sat, Mar 7 95 Stanford W 89-78 83%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.6 5.2 2.3 0.2 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.5 2.9 0.3 10.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.6 4.4 0.7 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.0 1.4 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.3 3.6 3.0 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.4 2.9 1.6 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.2 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.2 8.7 11.1 13.9 14.6 13.1 10.9 7.6 4.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 95.7% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 77.3% 1.4    0.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 45.0% 2.0    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 14.7% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 3.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.6% 99.9% 12.3% 87.6% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 10.9% 99.6% 8.7% 90.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.0 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 13.1% 97.3% 6.1% 91.2% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.4 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 97.2%
11-7 14.6% 89.8% 2.9% 87.0% 8.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.0 0.5 1.5 89.5%
10-8 13.9% 77.6% 1.6% 76.0% 9.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.2 2.6 1.4 0.0 3.1 77.3%
9-9 11.1% 54.7% 1.3% 53.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 54.1%
8-10 8.7% 26.6% 0.7% 25.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.1 6.4 26.1%
7-11 6.2% 8.0% 0.4% 7.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.7 7.6%
6-12 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.0%
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.2% 4.8% 66.4% 7.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.4 8.9 11.0 10.5 9.9 8.1 5.2 0.2 0.0 28.8 69.7%