Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#66
Pace65.3#291
Improvement-1.6#305

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#49
First Shot+5.9#40
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#138
Layup/Dunks+7.3#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
Freethrows-0.6#209
Improvement+0.9#87

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot+4.4#57
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#280
Layups/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#69
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement-2.5#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 4.0% 8.5% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 43.9% 21.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.8% 43.6% 21.5%
Average Seed 8.6 8.3 8.9
.500 or above 63.3% 80.8% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 30.4% 50.0% 24.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.1% 5.4%
First Four5.7% 6.8% 5.3%
First Round24.2% 40.6% 19.0%
Second Round12.0% 21.5% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 5.8% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.9% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 24 - 37 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 46 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 320 Mercyhurst W 70-47 96%     1 - 0 +11.5 -4.5 +16.9
  Fri, Nov 7 227 Boston University W 76-52 93%     2 - 0 +17.0 +8.3 +12.6
  Mon, Nov 10 303 Cleveland St. W 110-63 96%     3 - 0 +36.2 +23.7 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 14 109 @DePaul W 81-79 61%     4 - 0 +8.6 +15.4 -6.7
  Fri, Nov 21 39 Virginia L 78-83 41%     4 - 1 +7.0 +8.4 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 88 South Carolina W 79-77 62%     5 - 1 +8.4 +16.2 -7.7
  Thu, Nov 27 46 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 44%     5 - 2 +6.0 +9.6 -3.3
  Wed, Dec 3 27 @Wisconsin L 72-79 24%    
  Sat, Dec 6 20 Ohio St. L 73-76 40%    
  Sat, Dec 13 326 Jackson St. W 85-63 98%    
  Tue, Dec 16 268 Valparaiso W 79-61 96%    
  Sat, Dec 20 47 Butler L 75-76 46%    
  Tue, Dec 30 315 Howard W 84-63 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 103 Minnesota W 71-63 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 12 @Michigan St. L 64-76 15%    
  Sun, Jan 11 120 @Rutgers W 72-68 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 13 Illinois L 75-80 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 43 Nebraska W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 31 @USC L 73-80 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 32 @UCLA L 66-73 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 100 Penn St. W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 48 Washington W 74-72 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 13 @Illinois L 72-83 16%    
  Sun, Feb 8 21 @Iowa L 66-75 22%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 69-82 12%    
  Sat, Feb 14 43 @Nebraska L 73-78 33%    
  Wed, Feb 18 93 Maryland W 77-70 73%    
  Tue, Feb 24 22 @Indiana L 69-78 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 80 Oregon W 75-70 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 3 Purdue L 68-78 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 @Minnesota W 68-66 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.7 0.4 6.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.4 0.2 9.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 4.6 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.1 1.4 0.1 10.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.1 13th
14th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.8 0.3 9.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.8 17th
18th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.9 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 5.1 8.2 11.4 13.5 14.3 13.4 11.2 8.1 5.3 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 20.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.6% 99.4% 3.8% 95.6% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 2.9% 97.3% 1.4% 95.9% 7.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 97.3%
12-8 5.3% 93.8% 0.8% 93.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 93.8%
11-9 8.1% 78.2% 0.4% 77.8% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 1.8 78.1%
10-10 11.2% 55.8% 0.4% 55.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.8 0.1 5.0 55.6%
9-11 13.4% 22.0% 0.2% 21.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.5 21.8%
8-12 14.3% 5.6% 5.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 13.5 5.6%
7-13 13.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.3%
6-14 11.4% 11.4
5-15 8.2% 8.2
4-16 5.1% 5.1
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 27.0% 0.3% 26.7% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.1 5.3 4.9 0.4 0.0 73.0 26.8%