Pacific
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #144
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #154
Pace 65.7 #278
Improvement -1.2 #253

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C+ C D- B- C-
Defense #163 B- B- D+ C- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.13 #212 -0.4 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.88 #44 +2.9 #54
Three Pointers 37% #261 1.07 #106 -0.8 #213
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #131 +1.7 #132
Freethrows 17.7 #172 78% #31 13.8 #114
Second Chance 35.5% #59 0.93 #308 0.33 #149
Turnovers 19.3% #325
Total Offense +0.8 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #345 1.16 #183 +4.9 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.74 #155 -2.7 #342
Three Pointers 42% #155 0.99 #151 +0.1 #172
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #106 +2.3 #106
Freethrows 18.7 #254 73% #182 13.6 #117
Second Chance 26.9% #63 1.04 #187 0.28 #84
Turnovers 15.3% #262
Total Defense +0.1 #163

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #245 -3.2% #16
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #124 -1.3% #157
Possession Length 18.8 #323 17.1 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.17 #173
Improvement +1.3 #104 -2.5 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 11.5 12.3
.500 or above 61.0% 84.2% 57.5%
.500 or above in Conference 35.1% 63.4% 30.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 13.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 55 - 14
Quad 411 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 85 @Nevada L 77 - 78 20% -2  0 - 1 +9 +10 A+ F A+ -2 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 264 Long Beach St. W 69 - 66 82% -3  1 - 1 -6 -7 F A+ F +1 A D- B
 Sat, Nov 15 231 @Cal St. Fullerton W 85 - 73 56% +14  2 - 1 +11 +2 A+ F F +7 A+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 20 102 @Florida Atlantic L 59 - 82 25% -11  2 - 2 -15 -5 C- D F -11 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 274 Stony Brook W 86 - 58 76% +17  3 - 2 +22 +15 A+ F F +7 A+ B+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 305 Jacksonville W 68 - 53 81% +7  4 - 2 +7 +3 F B- D+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 307 Sacramento St. W 68 - 54 88% +6  5 - 2 +2 -11 D+ F F +13 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 342 @Air Force W 80 - 65 81% +9  6 - 2 +7 +18 B A+ A+ -9 D+ F D
 Sat, Dec 6 81 @California L 61 - 67 20% -9  6 - 3 +4 +2 C- B- F +1 C+ C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 11 @BYU L 57 - 93 3% -18  6 - 4 -13 -7 C- B F -5 A- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 205 Nicholls St. W 95 - 82 74% +7  7 - 4 +7 +16 A+ A+ F -9 F A+ A
 Sun, Dec 28 222 @San Diego L 54 - 66 55% -9  7 - 5 0 - 1 -12 -14 F F F +0 A+ D- F
 Tue, Dec 30 130 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 80 36% +1  7 - 6 0 - 2 -4 +3 D- B- D+ -7 F A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 189 Oregon St. W 84 - 53 71% +17  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +19 A+ B C- +11 A+ C C+
 Sun, Jan 4 286 Pepperdine W 74 - 69 85% +3  9 - 6 2 - 2 -5 +2 B A+ F -7 D+ B D-
 Thu, Jan 8 233 @Portland L 89 - 90 OT 57% -4  9 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +12 C B- A -13 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 222 San Diego W 77 - 70 76% -6  10 - 7 3 - 3 +1 +1 F D- A -1 B- A- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 55 @Santa Clara L 70 - 82 13%
 Sat, Jan 17 189 @Oregon St. L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Jan 24 121 Seattle W 70 - 69 55%
 Wed, Jan 28 233 Portland W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 103 @San Francisco L 67 - 74 26%
 Wed, Feb 4 55 Santa Clara L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 286 @Pepperdine W 72 - 67 68%
 Wed, Feb 11 130 Loyola Marymount W 71 - 69 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 42 St. Mary's L 67 - 75 22%
 Wed, Feb 18 136 @Washington St. L 72 - 75 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 10 @Gonzaga L 66 - 88 2%
 Sat, Feb 28 103 San Francisco L 70 - 71 47%
Totals 15 - 14 8 - 10 +1 +1 C+ C D- +0 B- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 8.4 3.7 0.3 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 1.3 8.6 5.3 0.4 15.6 6th
7th 0.4 6.8 8.2 0.9 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.1 3.9 9.2 2.1 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 7.0 2.6 0.1 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.5 2.7 0.2 6.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.2 2.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.4 1.8 6.8 14.2 20.1 21.6 17.6 10.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-7 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.8
10-8 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
9-9 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 17.6
8-10 21.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 21.6
7-11 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 20.1
6-12 14.2% 14.2
5-13 6.8% 6.8
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.2 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%