IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-1.4	#177
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.4	#189

Pace	64.3	#306
Improvement	-2.2	#292

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#221	D	C-	C-	C	D
Defense	#149	C	B-	B-	C	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#175	1.12	#228	-0.9	#216
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#41	0.86	#59	+4.5	#21
Three Pointers	33%	#328	0.83	#351	-7.2	#347
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#281	-3.5	#282
Freethrows	16.8	#226	74%	#159	12.3	#200
Second Chance	32.0%	#142	0.94	#295	0.30	#225
Turnovers					17.3%	#224
Total Offense					-1.9	#221

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#83	1.17	#198	-2.4	#267
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#137	0.79	#235	-0.8	#242
Three Pointers	36%	#306	0.99	#159	+2.8	#84
1st FG Attempt			1.03	#191	-0.5	#192
Freethrows	17.1	#178	73%	#219	12.5	#183
Second Chance	31.9%	#232	0.91	#37	0.29	#112
Turnovers					17.9%	#97
Total Defense					+0.5	#149

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-2.0%	#302	0.3%	#188
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-4.8%	#248	0.6%	#193
Possession Length	19.0	#334	17.3	#189
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.11	#329	0.14	#66
Improvement	+0.1	#175	-2.3	#313

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.8%	15.8%	11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.6	14.9

.500 or above	98.7%	99.3%	96.3%
.500 or above in Conference	95.3%	97.2%	88.2%
Conference Champion	12.9%	15.1%	4.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.4%	0.3%	0.6%
First Round	14.6%	15.6%	10.8%
Second Round	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 7
Quad 4	18 - 5	21 - 12

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	329 Bryant	W	82 - 66	87%	+10	1 - 0		+3	+9	D	A+	A-	-6	F	F	A+
Fri, Nov 7	248 @Brown	W	62 - 46	52%	+12	2 - 0		+14	-4	F	D+	F	+19	A+	A+	A+
Wed, Nov 12	127 @St. Bonaventure	L	66 - 75	27%	+1	2 - 1		-4	-0	F	A+	F	-5	B-	F	A-
Mon, Nov 17	215 Colgate	L	69 - 72	67%	-0	2 - 2		-9	-2	D	B+	D+	-7	C-	D+	C
Fri, Nov 21	309 Albany	W	73 - 63	83%	+8	3 - 2		-2	+5	C+	D	F	-5	F	A+	C-
Mon, Nov 24	310 @Holy Cross	W	73 - 69	67%	+1	4 - 2		-2	+3	B	F	B-	-5	F	A+	B-
Fri, Nov 28	270 Longwood	W	70 - 63	68%	+3	5 - 2		+1	-4	B-	F	F	+5	B	F	A+
Sat, Nov 29	239 @American	W	59 - 55	50%	+1	6 - 2		+3	-14	F	F	F	+16	A+	D+	A+
Sun, Nov 30	341 Maine	W	64 - 60	82%	+8	7 - 2		-7	+1	C	F	C+	-7	F	C-	F
Fri, Dec 5	355 Niagara	W	83 - 54	91%	+22	8 - 2	1 - 0	+12	+7	B	D	B-	+7	A+	B-	F
Sun, Dec 7	337 Canisius	W	74 - 52	88%	+14	9 - 2	2 - 0	+8	+3	C	F	A+	+7	A	B+	A-
Wed, Dec 17	195 @Vermont	L	69 - 83	42%	-12	9 - 3		-13	-5	F	D-	C	-8	D	D	F
Mon, Dec 22	31 @Indiana	L	60 - 81	5%	-18	9 - 4		-4	-5	F	C-	A+	+1	B-	A+	A-
Fri, Jan 2	198 @Iona	L	72 - 75	42%	-4	9 - 5	2 - 1	-2	-1	D	F	B+	-1	F	A+	A+
Sun, Jan 4	348 @Rider	W	74 - 65	79%	+7	10 - 5	3 - 1	-1	+12	D	A+	F	-11	F	A-	F
Fri, Jan 9	241 Merrimack	L	59 - 63	72%	-9	10 - 6	3 - 2	-12	+1	D	C	C	-13	F	D+	D-
Sun, Jan 11	297 @Mount St. Mary's	W	67 - 50	63%	+9	11 - 6	4 - 2	+12	+4	D	D	C	+11	A+	C-	A+
Wed, Jan 14	285 Sacred Heart	W	77 - 68	79%
Sat, Jan 17	312 @Manhattan	W	76 - 71	66%
Mon, Jan 19	281 Fairfield	W	76 - 68	79%
Thu, Jan 22	129 Marist	L	64 - 65	49%
Fri, Jan 30	355 @Niagara	W	70 - 61	80%
Sun, Feb 1	337 @Canisius	W	69 - 62	74%
Thu, Feb 5	198 Iona	W	74 - 70	64%
Sat, Feb 7	246 @St. Peter's	W	66 - 65	51%
Fri, Feb 13	156 Quinnipiac	W	72 - 71	55%
Sun, Feb 15	129 @Marist	L	61 - 67	28%
Fri, Feb 20	241 @Merrimack	W	67 - 66	50%
Sun, Feb 22	246 St. Peter's	W	69 - 63	72%
Fri, Feb 27	281 @Fairfield	W	73 - 71	59%
Sun, Mar 1	348 Rider	W	72 - 58	91%
Totals						20 - 11	13 - 7	-1	-2	D	C-	C-	+0	C	B-	B-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st														0.0	1.0	4.1	5.0	2.3	0.4			12.9	1st
2nd													0.1	1.4	6.3	7.0	2.2	0.2				17.1	2nd
3rd												0.1	1.4	7.0	8.4	2.2	0.1					19.1	3rd
4th											0.1	1.1	6.8	8.5	2.5	0.1						19.0	4th
5th										0.0	0.9	4.7	6.7	2.0	0.1							14.3	5th
6th										0.5	3.0	4.6	1.6	0.1								9.7	6th
7th									0.1	1.2	2.3	0.8	0.1									4.4	7th
8th								0.0	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.0										2.1	8th
9th							0.0	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0											0.8	9th
10th							0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0												0.4	10th
11th						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0													0.1	11th
12th						0.0	0.0															0.0	12th
13th																							13th

Total						0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	3.1	6.6	11.3	16.6	19.0	18.2	13.4	7.3	2.5	0.4				Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.4	0.4	0.0
17-3	93.0%	2.3	1.9	0.4	0.0
16-4	68.6%	5.0	2.4	2.1	0.4	0.0
15-5	31.0%	4.1	1.0	1.9	1.1	0.2
14-6	5.5%	1.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.9%	12.9	5.9	4.7	1.8	0.4	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.4%	42.4%	42.4%		12.7											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2
17-3	2.5%	30.5%	30.5%		13.6												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1		1.7
16-4	7.3%	27.9%	27.9%		14.0												0.0	0.5	1.1	0.5		5.2
15-5	13.4%	23.4%	23.4%		14.4												0.0	0.2	1.5	1.3	0.1	10.2
14-6	18.2%	18.2%	18.2%		14.7													0.1	1.1	1.9	0.2	14.9
13-7	19.0%	13.0%	13.0%		15.0													0.0	0.5	1.5	0.5	16.6
12-8	16.6%	10.5%	10.5%		15.2													0.0	0.1	1.0	0.6	14.9
11-9	11.3%	6.7%	6.7%		15.5														0.0	0.3	0.4	10.5
10-10	6.6%	3.8%	3.8%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	6.4
9-11	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%		16.0																0.1	3.0
8-12	1.1%	4.8%	4.8%		15.8															0.0	0.0	1.1
7-13	0.4%	2.5%	2.5%		16.0																0.0	0.4
6-14	0.1%																					0.1
5-15	0.0%																					0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%	14.6																	85.2	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	12.7											5.6	33.3	50.0	11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%