SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.6 #30
Expected Predictive Rating +15.3 #32
Pace 71.6 #106
Improvement +0.8 #141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #13 A+ B+ B- C+ D+
Defense #63 B- B B+ B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #191 1.38 #12 +3.8 #61
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #74 0.92 #23 +4.4 #25
Three Pointers 36% #287 1.14 #31 -0.2 #184
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #19 +8.0 #18
Freethrows 17.1 #204 77% #42 13.2 #140
Second Chance 38.2% #23 1.04 #188 0.40 #53
Turnovers 15.4% #107
Total Offense +10.2 #13

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.16 #177 +4.7 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #74 0.71 #113 -0.9 #245
Three Pointers 45% #64 0.96 #111 -0.9 #219
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #89 +2.9 #90
Freethrows 16.1 #122 70% #97 11.3 #263
Second Chance 29.3% #126 0.91 #32 0.27 #54
Turnovers 19.2% #54
Total Defense +4.4 #63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #282 -2.1% #37
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.4% #5 -3.6% #114
Possession Length 15.3 #32 18.5 #336
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #26 0.12 #28
Improvement +2.1 #67 -1.3 #261

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 8.2% 9.6% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 30.9% 34.3% 17.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.3% 90.8% 78.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.5% 90.1% 77.7%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 91.4% 74.3%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four4.5% 3.9% 7.0%
First Round86.1% 88.8% 75.1%
Second Round53.5% 56.0% 43.4%
Sweet Sixteen18.1% 19.5% 12.4%
Elite Eight6.3% 6.9% 4.0%
Final Four2.1% 2.3% 1.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 79.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 173 Tarleton St. W 96 - 76 95% +7  1 - 0 +16 +18 A F A+ -3 A A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 58 95% +2  2 - 0 +6 -2 F F A+ +9 A- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 89 Murray St. W 102 - 91 85% +9  3 - 0 +15 +14 B+ A- B+ -1 C D+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 58 Butler W 87 - 85 79% -0  4 - 0 +8 +11 A+ B+ F -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106 - 60 99% +25  5 - 0 +33 +12 A+ D- C- +14 A- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 133 Arkansas St. W 100 - 69 93% +15  6 - 0 +29 +13 A+ F A+ +12 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 254 Radford W 89 - 72 97% +11  7 - 0 +9 +1 D+ A- F +6 A+ C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 66 @Mississippi St. W 87 - 81 OT 62% -1  8 - 0 +17 +9 C+ A+ C+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 9 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 88 20% -9  8 - 1 +4 +9 C A+ C -5 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 40 Texas A&M W 93 - 80 OT 57% +5  9 - 1 +26 +10 D+ A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 44 LSU L 77 - 89 60% -7  9 - 2 -0 +16 A+ A C- -17 F F A
 Sun, Dec 21 265 Central Arkansas W 99 - 82 97% +11  10 - 2 +8 +21 A+ A+ C+ -13 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 28 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 110 - 63 97% +25  11 - 2 +40 +24 A+ A- A+ +12 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 29 North Carolina W 97 - 83 61% +5  12 - 2 1 - 0 +26 +30 A+ C+ A+ -4 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 33 @Clemson L 70 - 74 40% -7  12 - 3 1 - 1 +13 +12 C- A+ D +1 A- C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 7 @Duke L 75 - 82 19% -4  12 - 4 1 - 2 +17 +14 A+ B+ F +3 C A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 64 Virginia Tech W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Jan 17 17 Virginia W 77 - 76 52%
 Tue, Jan 20 57 @Wake Forest W 81 - 79 59%
 Sat, Jan 24 117 Florida St. W 94 - 79 92%
 Sat, Jan 31 19 @Louisville L 80 - 85 32%
 Tue, Feb 3 24 North Carolina St. W 82 - 80 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 88 @Pittsburgh W 78 - 73 68%
 Tue, Feb 10 71 Notre Dame W 79 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Syracuse W 80 - 77 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 19 Louisville W 83 - 82 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Boston College W 82 - 65 95%
 Wed, Feb 25 81 @California W 81 - 76 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 77 @Stanford W 79 - 75 65%
 Wed, Mar 4 35 Miami (FL) W 83 - 79 64%
 Sat, Mar 7 117 @Florida St. W 91 - 82 79%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15 +10 A+ B+ B- +4 B- B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 2.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.5 0.2 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.8 4.9 0.7 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.5 5.0 7.1 1.5 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 7.7 2.6 0.1 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.5 4.4 0.2 12.4 7th
8th 0.4 3.8 4.6 0.7 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.1 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.7 0.1 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.3 3.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 6.7 11.1 15.6 18.9 17.4 13.5 7.7 3.0 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 66.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 38.6% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 10.2% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.7% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.5% 99.7% 11.5% 88.2% 5.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.7 4.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 17.4% 99.0% 7.7% 91.3% 6.8 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.9%
11-7 18.9% 96.7% 5.0% 91.7% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.6 5.7 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.6 96.5%
10-8 15.6% 91.4% 3.0% 88.4% 8.7 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.0 4.6 3.0 0.6 1.4 91.1%
9-9 11.1% 78.4% 1.7% 76.7% 9.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.3 1.1 0.0 2.4 78.0%
8-10 6.7% 57.4% 1.4% 56.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 1.6 2.8 56.8%
7-11 3.4% 28.9% 0.7% 28.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 2.4 28.4%
6-12 1.3% 6.7% 6.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 6.7%
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.3% 6.5% 81.8% 7.3 11.7 87.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 29.6 44.4 25.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.7 6.1 39.4 33.3 18.2 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.4 2.9 11.4 34.3 42.9 8.6