SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#42
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#39
Pace76.4#44
Improvement-0.1#180

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#44
First Shot+8.6#16
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks+3.6#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
Freethrows+3.7#25
Improvement-0.5#236

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#48
First Shot+4.6#53
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#172
Layups/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#223
Freethrows+1.4#101
Improvement+0.4#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 7.4% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 17.2% 21.6% 11.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.4% 68.7% 51.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.3% 67.7% 50.2%
Average Seed 7.8 7.6 8.2
.500 or above 93.7% 97.1% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 63.8% 68.1% 57.7%
Conference Champion 2.3% 2.7% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.0% 2.4%
First Four8.0% 7.7% 8.5%
First Round57.3% 64.8% 46.8%
Second Round32.1% 37.4% 24.7%
Sweet Sixteen10.2% 12.6% 6.8%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.5% 2.2%
Final Four1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 27 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 195 Tarleton St. W 96-76 94%     1 - 0 +14.8 +16.9 -3.0
  Thu, Nov 6 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 95%     2 - 0 +4.0 -4.0 +8.2
  Tue, Nov 11 118 Murray St. W 102-91 86%     3 - 0 +11.1 +12.9 -3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 47 Butler W 87-85 66%     4 - 0 +9.6 +11.8 -2.3
  Tue, Nov 18 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     5 - 0 +27.4 +10.4 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 21 172 Arkansas St. W 100-69 93%     6 - 0 +26.8 +12.6 +10.2
  Mon, Nov 24 273 Radford W 89-72 96%     7 - 0 +7.9 +2.0 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 28 84 @Mississippi St. W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Dec 3 19 @Vanderbilt L 80-87 26%    
  Sun, Dec 7 60 Texas A&M W 85-82 59%    
  Sat, Dec 13 40 LSU L 81-82 50%    
  Sun, Dec 21 317 Central Arkansas W 89-66 98%    
  Sun, Dec 28 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 99-75 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 26 North Carolina W 82-81 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 38 @Clemson L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 @Duke L 72-86 10%    
  Wed, Jan 14 63 Virginia Tech W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 39 Virginia W 79-76 61%    
  Tue, Jan 20 37 @Wake Forest L 79-82 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 55 Florida St. W 87-82 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 9 @Louisville L 77-87 18%    
  Tue, Feb 3 29 North Carolina St. W 86-85 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 99 @Pittsburgh W 77-73 64%    
  Tue, Feb 10 66 Notre Dame W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 64 @Syracuse W 79-78 51%    
  Tue, Feb 17 9 Louisville L 80-84 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 127 Boston College W 80-67 87%    
  Wed, Feb 25 67 @California W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 95 @Stanford W 83-80 62%    
  Wed, Mar 4 44 Miami (FL) W 82-79 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 55 @Florida St. L 84-85 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.5 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.6 3.8 0.4 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 4.8 1.4 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.7 4.5 2.9 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.3 0.8 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.7 4.3 2.1 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 3.7 0.5 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.2 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.3 5.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.0 3.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.7 9.6 12.2 14.0 13.5 13.0 10.4 6.4 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 76.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2
15-3 45.3% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 18.9% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.8% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.0% 99.8% 10.7% 89.1% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 6.4% 99.7% 7.8% 91.9% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.4% 97.4% 5.2% 92.2% 6.9 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.3%
11-7 13.0% 92.8% 3.6% 89.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.2 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.9 92.5%
10-8 13.5% 82.5% 1.7% 80.8% 8.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.3 2.8 1.2 0.0 2.4 82.2%
9-9 14.0% 65.1% 0.7% 64.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.1 2.2 0.0 4.9 64.9%
8-10 12.2% 37.2% 0.2% 37.0% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.1 0.1 7.7 37.0%
7-11 9.6% 14.2% 0.2% 14.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 8.3 14.0%
6-12 6.7% 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 2.4%
5-13 4.1% 4.1
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.4% 2.7% 58.7% 7.8 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.8 8.3 9.1 9.8 9.7 7.0 0.2 38.6 60.3%