South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#81
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#104
Pace78.5#25
Improvement-1.2#278

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#66
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#7
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows+1.3#109
Improvement-1.5#315

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#106
First Shot+2.9#86
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#92
Freethrows-1.8#290
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 23.2% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.7
.500 or above 87.6% 93.2% 81.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.2% 90.1% 84.1%
Conference Champion 22.2% 25.3% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.5%
First Round19.5% 22.4% 16.2%
Second Round5.1% 6.3% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Neutral) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 54 - 9
Quad 38 - 312 - 12
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 351 Florida A&M W 102-67 97%     1 - 0 +19.6 +10.5 +4.7
  Sat, Nov 8 62 George Washington L 95-99 43%     1 - 1 +4.8 +6.0 -0.5
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 99%     2 - 1 +30.0 +22.2 +8.8
  Sun, Nov 16 163 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 68%     3 - 1 +21.3 +21.6 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 19 46 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 25%     3 - 2 +6.0 +14.6 -7.5
  Wed, Nov 26 53 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 38%     3 - 3 -1.9 -2.2 +0.7
  Thu, Nov 27 132 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 69%     4 - 3 +7.9 +3.5 +3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 87 Colorado St. W 79-78 52%    
  Thu, Dec 4 35 Utah St. L 80-83 40%    
  Wed, Dec 10 151 College of Charleston W 84-74 83%    
  Wed, Dec 17 10 @Alabama L 84-99 8%    
  Sun, Dec 21 289 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 90-73 94%    
  Tue, Jan 6 107 UAB W 86-80 70%    
  Wed, Jan 7 123 @North Texas W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 91 @Tulsa L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Jan 14 259 East Carolina W 88-73 92%    
  Sun, Jan 18 92 Wichita St. W 81-77 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 107 @UAB L 83-84 50%    
  Sun, Jan 25 111 Florida Atlantic W 85-78 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 152 @Tulane W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 148 @Temple W 86-82 64%    
  Wed, Feb 4 231 Texas San Antonio W 88-74 89%    
  Sun, Feb 8 91 Tulsa W 81-77 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 92 @Wichita St. L 78-80 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 111 @Florida Atlantic W 82-81 51%    
  Thu, Feb 19 70 Memphis W 83-81 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 213 @Rice W 80-73 74%    
  Sun, Mar 1 152 Tulane W 86-76 81%    
  Thu, Mar 5 70 @Memphis L 80-84 36%    
  Sun, Mar 8 196 Charlotte W 83-71 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.1 6.2 4.3 1.6 0.3 22.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.2 4.4 1.2 0.1 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 6.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 3.2 1.0 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.0 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.1 9.0 11.6 13.7 14.5 13.8 11.0 7.4 4.4 1.6 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 97.5% 4.3    4.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 83.9% 6.2    4.5 1.7 0.1
14-4 55.4% 6.1    3.0 2.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.6% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 14.0 6.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 85.5% 53.9% 31.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.6%
17-1 1.6% 67.8% 53.6% 14.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 30.5%
16-2 4.4% 53.7% 45.1% 8.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.2 2.0 15.8%
15-3 7.4% 39.6% 34.1% 5.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.5 8.3%
14-4 11.0% 31.2% 29.7% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.3 0.0 7.5 2.2%
13-5 13.8% 24.7% 24.1% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 0.1 10.4 0.8%
12-6 14.5% 19.3% 19.1% 0.2% 11.8 0.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.7 0.2%
11-7 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 12.1 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.8
10-8 11.6% 8.0% 8.0% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.6
9-9 9.0% 5.8% 5.8% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.5
8-10 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5
6-12 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 18.6% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 8.2 7.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 80.0 1.7%