Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #345
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #291
Pace 69.0 #186
Improvement +2.2 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #313 D D- D+ D D+
Defense #345 F D- C- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 1.17 #170 -4.2 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #174 0.78 #142 +0.4 #157
Three Pointers 48% #53 0.85 #339 -0.3 #194
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -4.1 #294
Freethrows 15.3 #287 70% #270 10.7 #291
Second Chance 24.1% #333 1.01 #232 0.24 #319
Turnovers 17.8% #256
Total Offense -5.3 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #180 1.33 #340 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #235 0.89 #336 -0.5 #214
Three Pointers 43% #131 1.11 #302 -2.9 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #352 -6.9 #352
Freethrows 16.1 #123 70% #65 11.2 #274
Second Chance 30.6% #173 1.26 #353 0.39 #317
Turnovers 15.5% #247
Total Defense -6.4 #345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #266 0.6% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #287 12.8% #353
Possession Length 18.1 #255 16.0 #21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.19 #231
Improvement +2.3 #58 -0.1 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 16.2% 23.8% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 9.3% 22.8%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 48 - 119 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 123 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 6% -17  0 - 1 -26 -9 D F F -15 F F D+
 Mon, Nov 10 35 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 1% -18  0 - 2 -24 -11 F D D+ -8 F A- C+
 Sun, Nov 16 291 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 25% -8  0 - 3 -15 -13 F C- B -2 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 275 Howard W 64 - 60 42% +10  1 - 3 -6 -9 F F F +3 A+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 339 VMI W 99 - 80 59% +9  2 - 3 +5 +24 A+ A- B -18 F D- F
 Tue, Nov 25 142 Wright St. L 62 - 79 18% -15  2 - 4 -19 -7 D B- D -13 F F B
 Sat, Nov 29 323 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 43% +3  2 - 5 -12 -7 D- C- F -5 D- C C-
 Sun, Nov 30 214 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 14% -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D A- -17 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 90 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 4% -4  2 - 7 -13 -18 F F F +4 B D A
 Sat, Dec 6 69 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 3% -15  2 - 8 -20 -12 F D- A -12 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 54 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  2 - 9 -40 -14 F D+ F -28 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 279 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 22% +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -1 -0 A F F -0 B- D B-
 Sat, Jan 3 265 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 20% -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -23 +1 A- D F -25 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 167 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 22% +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +4 +9 A+ F A -6 F B B
 Sat, Jan 10 180 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 25% -7  4 - 11 2 - 2 -17 -4 D- B- C -13 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 15 320 West Georgia W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Jan 17 202 Queens L 77 - 83 27%
 Thu, Jan 22 167 @Lipscomb L 69 - 83 9%
 Sat, Jan 24 180 @Austin Peay L 67 - 80 11%
 Thu, Jan 29 350 @North Florida L 81 - 83 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 279 North Alabama L 72 - 74 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 294 @Bellarmine L 74 - 81 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 253 @Eastern Kentucky L 72 - 81 20%
 Thu, Feb 12 305 Jacksonville L 68 - 69 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 83 13%
 Thu, Feb 19 265 Central Arkansas L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 350 North Florida W 84 - 80 66%
 Thu, Feb 26 305 @Jacksonville L 66 - 72 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 201 Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 80 28%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -12 -5 D D- D+ -6 F D- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.1 4th
5th 0.5 2.5 1.9 0.2 5.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.9 2.0 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 7.4 3.9 0.3 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 7.2 6.4 0.9 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 6.1 8.2 1.9 0.1 17.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.7 7.5 2.5 0.1 17.2 11th
12th 0.7 3.0 3.1 1.1 0.0 7.9 12th
Total 0.8 4.3 9.9 15.9 20.0 18.7 14.2 8.8 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 12.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.6% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.1
10-8 4.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 4.4
9-9 8.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.6
8-10 14.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.1
7-11 18.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.6
6-12 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.0
5-13 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
4-14 9.9% 9.9
3-15 4.3% 4.3
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%