Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#344
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#288
Pace69.0#207
Improvement+2.2#34

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#326
First Shot-3.8#287
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#285
Layup/Dunks-7.0#355
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#27
Freethrows-2.4#316
Improvement+2.4#19

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#347
First Shot-5.6#338
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#210
Layups/Dunks-1.5#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#360
Freethrows+2.1#70
Improvement-0.2#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 1.9% 3.5% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 11.4% 14.7% 8.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 36.3% 31.0% 40.2%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Neutral) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 48 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 106 @Rhode Island L 62-93 5%     0 - 1 -23.7 -10.6 -11.5
  Mon, Nov 10 44 @Miami (FL) L 61-102 2%     0 - 2 -26.2 -10.5 -11.1
  Sun, Nov 16 278 @Western Carolina L 65-76 22%     0 - 3 -14.4 -11.0 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 315 Howard W 64-60 49%     1 - 3 -7.3 -11.7 +4.5
  Sat, Nov 22 342 VMI W 99-80 60%     2 - 3 +4.8 +24.1 -18.1
  Tue, Nov 25 146 Wright St. L 62-79 20%     2 - 4 -19.7 -6.3 -14.9
  Sat, Nov 29 331 Southern Utah L 75-77 43%    
  Sun, Nov 30 185 @Robert Morris L 67-80 12%    
  Tue, Dec 2 98 @Grand Canyon L 64-84 3%    
  Sat, Dec 6 88 @South Carolina L 62-83 3%    
  Mon, Dec 22 52 @Oklahoma L 64-89 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 242 @North Alabama L 67-77 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 317 @Central Arkansas L 70-76 30%    
  Thu, Jan 8 176 Lipscomb L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 165 Austin Peay L 68-76 24%    
  Thu, Jan 15 311 West Georgia L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 210 Queens L 75-80 32%    
  Thu, Jan 22 176 @Lipscomb L 66-79 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 165 @Austin Peay L 65-79 11%    
  Thu, Jan 29 341 @North Florida L 79-82 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 242 North Alabama L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 294 @Bellarmine L 72-79 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 72-81 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 269 Jacksonville L 68-71 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 164 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-83 11%    
  Thu, Feb 19 317 Central Arkansas L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 341 North Florida W 82-79 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 269 @Jacksonville L 65-74 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 164 Florida Gulf Coast L 72-80 25%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.3 2.1 5.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.5 4.9 1.2 0.0 15.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.6 7.2 5.6 1.4 0.1 20.1 11th
12th 1.1 4.0 6.9 7.5 4.1 1.1 0.1 24.8 12th
Total 1.1 4.1 8.1 12.4 14.5 15.4 13.6 11.3 8.1 5.0 3.4 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 60.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 9.6% 9.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 6.9% 6.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 3.3
9-9 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 4.9
8-10 8.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.0
7-11 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
5-13 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
2-16 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.1
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%