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American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#148
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#185
Pace69.6#186
Improvement-1.7#310

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#82
First Shot+5.0#51
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#243
Layup/Dunks+0.9#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
Freethrows+3.2#36
Improvement-1.0#277

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#307
First Shot-7.2#357
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#22
Layups/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#356
Freethrows+2.0#74
Improvement-0.7#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 4.4% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 55.4% 79.3% 53.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.0% 67.1% 51.8%
Conference Champion 3.5% 7.7% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 3.2% 6.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.4% 4.4% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 66 - 13
Quad 410 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 357 Delaware St. W 83-65 93%     1 - 0 +1.6 +8.8 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 214 La Salle W 90-63 73%     2 - 0 +20.6 +18.7 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 127 Boston College L 71-76 53%     2 - 1 -5.8 +2.0 -7.9
  Wed, Nov 19 162 Hofstra W 81-76 64%     3 - 1 +1.3 +8.4 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 24 96 UC San Diego L 76-91 30%     3 - 2 -9.6 +5.9 -15.8
  Tue, Nov 25 238 Princeton W 79-75 67%     4 - 2 -0.6 +8.0 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 106 Rhode Island L 75-90 34%     4 - 3 -10.7 +4.4 -15.2
  Mon, Dec 1 41 @Villanova L 65-80 8%    
  Sun, Dec 14 359 St. Francis (PA) W 86-69 94%    
  Thu, Dec 18 135 @Davidson L 72-77 33%    
  Mon, Dec 22 238 Princeton W 80-72 75%    
  Wed, Dec 31 196 @Charlotte L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Jan 3 231 Texas San Antonio W 82-75 74%    
  Wed, Jan 7 259 East Carolina W 82-74 77%    
  Wed, Jan 14 70 @Memphis L 74-85 16%    
  Sun, Jan 18 111 Florida Atlantic L 79-80 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 213 @Rice W 75-74 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 231 @Texas San Antonio W 79-78 54%    
  Wed, Jan 28 196 Charlotte W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 81 South Florida L 82-86 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 259 @East Carolina W 79-77 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 152 @Tulane L 78-81 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 123 North Texas W 71-70 50%    
  Wed, Feb 18 107 UAB L 80-81 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 92 @Wichita St. L 73-82 22%    
  Wed, Feb 25 111 @Florida Atlantic L 76-82 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 213 Rice W 77-71 71%    
  Thu, Mar 5 152 Tulane W 81-78 61%    
  Sun, Mar 8 91 @Tulsa L 73-82 22%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.2 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.3 2.0 0.2 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.0 0.5 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 5.4 1.8 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.9 2.4 0.2 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.1 3.0 0.4 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.0 9.4 11.9 13.2 13.6 12.8 10.3 7.5 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 72.9% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.9% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.1% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 38.1% 38.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 21.5% 19.6% 1.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3%
15-3 1.2% 18.3% 18.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.4% 13.5% 13.5% 12.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 4.7% 7.8% 7.8% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.3
12-6 7.5% 6.1% 6.1% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.0
11-7 10.3% 3.8% 3.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.9
10-8 12.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.6
9-9 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.5
8-10 13.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
7-11 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-13 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 3.8% 3.8
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 97.6 0.0%