Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.4 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +15.1 #34
Pace 67.0 #237
Improvement -2.1 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #49 B A+ D+ B B
Defense #10 A A+ B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.22 #106 +5.4 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #255 0.75 #179 -1.4 #246
Three Pointers 38% #250 1.09 #89 -0.2 #188
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #78 +3.8 #78
Freethrows 20.0 #64 71% #240 14.2 #85
Second Chance 44.1% #1 1.16 #53 0.51 #2
Turnovers 17.9% #261
Total Offense +7.0 #49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #266 1.05 #59 +3.7 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.67 #65 +1.0 #119
Three Pointers 45% #80 0.86 #27 +1.7 #117
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #24 +6.4 #24
Freethrows 16.6 #145 67% #18 11.2 #277
Second Chance 26.0% #41 0.84 #13 0.22 #15
Turnovers 18.6% #69
Total Defense +9.5 #10

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #61 -0.3% #139
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #97 -12.2% #17
Possession Length 15.9 #58 19.1 #360
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #45 0.13 #50
Improvement -2.5 #321 +0.3 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.9% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 21.6% 26.6% 12.7%
Top 6 Seed 53.9% 61.7% 39.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.6% 95.4% 84.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.9% 95.0% 83.9%
Average Seed 6.2 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 98.8% 99.7% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 86.4% 64.2%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four4.9% 3.4% 7.6%
First Round89.8% 94.1% 82.0%
Second Round66.5% 71.8% 56.9%
Sweet Sixteen30.1% 33.8% 23.4%
Elite Eight11.7% 13.5% 8.6%
Final Four4.7% 5.5% 3.4%
Championship Game1.6% 1.8% 1.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.4%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 11
Quad 26 - 113 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 153 Mercer W 76 - 61 95% +11  1 - 0 +12 +0 D+ A+ F +12 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 179 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 96% +18  2 - 0 +35 +20 A A+ A- +15 A+ B- A
 Wed, Nov 12 350 North Florida W 99 - 66 99% +15  3 - 0 +17 +7 C- A+ F +7 A+ C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 247 Rice W 91 - 66 98% +12  4 - 0 +17 +16 B- A+ C +2 B- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 226 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 97% +22  5 - 0 +22 +3 D A+ F +16 A A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 124 Rutgers W 85 - 60 90% +19  6 - 0 +27 +18 A A+ F +10 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 5 Houston W 76 - 73 33% -2  7 - 0 +24 +27 A- A+ A+ -2 D- A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 18 Kansas L 76 - 81 48% +3  7 - 1 +12 +13 A A- A+ -1 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 61 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 66% -2  7 - 2 +10 -6 D+ C+ F +16 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 8 Illinois L 62 - 75 35% -4  7 - 3 +8 +6 D- A+ F -0 B B F
 Tue, Dec 16 19 Louisville W 83 - 62 61% +11  8 - 3 +34 +16 A+ A B- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 362 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100% +26  9 - 3 +23 +12 A- B B +11 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 30 361 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100% +23  10 - 3 +33 +26 A+ A+ C+ +7 A- A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 26 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 43% -1  10 - 4 0 - 1 +7 +3 B- C+ D +5 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 41 Texas W 85 - 71 76% +11  11 - 4 1 - 1 +23 +17 A+ A+ F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 12 @Florida L 67 - 91 27% -10  11 - 5 1 - 2 -1 +2 B C+ F -2 D+ A D
 Tue, Jan 13 40 Texas A&M W 87 - 82 2OT 74% -3  12 - 5 2 - 2 +15 +5 F A+ D +9 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 25 Kentucky W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Jan 24 14 @Alabama L 80 - 85 33%
 Tue, Jan 27 23 @Georgia L 79 - 81 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 27 Auburn W 78 - 74 66%
 Tue, Feb 3 65 Mississippi W 75 - 64 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 25 @Kentucky L 71 - 73 43%
 Wed, Feb 11 66 @Mississippi St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 44 LSU W 77 - 69 76%
 Wed, Feb 18 54 Oklahoma W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 9 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 79 27%
 Tue, Feb 24 53 @Missouri W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 14 Alabama W 83 - 82 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 69 @South Carolina W 72 - 67 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 9 Vanderbilt L 75 - 76 47%
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +16 +7 B A+ D+ +9 A A+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 6.0 2.5 0.3 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.3 5.0 6.1 0.9 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 6.8 1.9 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 5.3 4.1 0.3 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 5.3 1.0 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.5 4.0 2.3 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.1 0.4 5.0 10th
11th 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.1 2.7 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.0 6.3 11.0 15.7 18.5 17.8 13.6 8.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 96.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 83.6% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 17.0% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 2.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.6% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 3.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.0% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.8 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.6% 100.0% 13.0% 86.9% 4.6 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.3 4.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 17.8% 99.9% 8.7% 91.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.0 5.6 5.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-8 18.5% 99.5% 4.8% 94.7% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 5.4 5.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 15.7% 98.2% 3.3% 94.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.5 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.3 98.1%
8-10 11.0% 86.9% 2.4% 84.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.8 1.9 0.0 1.5 86.5%
7-11 6.3% 55.5% 1.6% 53.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 0.1 2.8 54.8%
6-12 3.0% 16.7% 1.0% 15.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 15.9%
5-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 1.0 1.0%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.6% 7.5% 84.1% 6.2 8.4 90.9%