Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#13
Pace68.5#221
Improvement-0.6#227

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#16
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebound+7.5#1
Layup/Dunks+1.1#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#60
Freethrows-0.8#217
Improvement+2.0#29

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#14
First Shot+6.8#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#118
Layups/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#70
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-2.6#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.5%
#1 Seed 10.0% 11.8% 5.3%
Top 2 Seed 26.0% 29.9% 15.9%
Top 4 Seed 58.6% 63.7% 45.2%
Top 6 Seed 80.0% 83.9% 70.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.5% 96.9% 91.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.8% 96.4% 90.9%
Average Seed 4.2 4.0 4.9
.500 or above 98.6% 99.2% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 87.5% 81.4%
Conference Champion 19.2% 21.4% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Four2.2% 1.8% 3.4%
First Round94.6% 96.2% 90.5%
Second Round80.7% 83.4% 73.8%
Sweet Sixteen48.4% 51.5% 40.2%
Elite Eight24.2% 26.4% 18.4%
Final Four11.4% 12.6% 8.4%
Championship Game5.1% 5.6% 3.5%
National Champion2.0% 2.3% 1.1%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 8
Quad 25 - 114 - 10
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 206 Mercer W 76-61 98%     1 - 0 +9.0 -1.5 +10.5
  Sat, Nov 8 198 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 97%     2 - 0 +33.6 +20.3 +13.6
  Wed, Nov 12 341 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +18.9 +8.9 +7.3
  Mon, Nov 17 213 Rice W 91-66 98%     4 - 0 +18.7 +17.0 +2.1
  Thu, Nov 20 224 Tennessee St. W 89-60 98%     5 - 0 +22.2 +3.9 +14.9
  Mon, Nov 24 120 Rutgers W 85-60 91%     6 - 0 +27.9 +18.6 +10.5
  Tue, Nov 25 5 Houston W 76-73 43%     7 - 0 +22.7 +26.0 -2.8
  Wed, Nov 26 18 Kansas L 76-81 56%     7 - 1 +11.3 +13.1 -1.9
  Tue, Dec 2 64 @Syracuse W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Dec 6 13 Illinois L 78-79 50%    
  Tue, Dec 16 9 Louisville W 79-77 57%    
  Sun, Dec 21 356 Gardner-Webb W 94-60 99.9%   
  Tue, Dec 30 347 South Carolina St. W 90-58 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 25 @Arkansas W 77-76 52%    
  Tue, Jan 6 36 Texas W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 17 @Florida L 76-78 42%    
  Tue, Jan 13 60 Texas A&M W 85-73 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 16 Kentucky W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 10 @Alabama L 82-86 35%    
  Tue, Jan 27 34 @Georgia W 83-81 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 23 Auburn W 80-74 70%    
  Tue, Feb 3 49 Mississippi W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 16 @Kentucky L 76-79 40%    
  Wed, Feb 11 84 @Mississippi St. W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 40 LSU W 82-73 79%    
  Wed, Feb 18 52 Oklahoma W 83-72 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 19 @Vanderbilt L 79-80 46%    
  Tue, Feb 24 33 @Missouri W 78-76 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 10 Alabama W 85-83 56%    
  Tue, Mar 3 88 @South Carolina W 77-68 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 19 Vanderbilt W 82-77 66%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.4 5.8 3.6 1.5 0.4 19.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.6 4.5 4.5 0.8 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 5.3 1.6 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.4 2.3 0.2 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 1.9 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.7 8.9 12.1 14.6 14.5 12.7 10.3 7.1 3.7 1.5 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.9% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-2 96.1% 3.6    3.2 0.4
15-3 81.0% 5.8    3.9 1.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.6% 5.4    2.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.7% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 11.5 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.7% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.1% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.8 2.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.3% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 12.7% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 2.8 1.1 3.7 4.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-6 14.5% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.6 0.5 2.1 4.6 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
11-7 14.6% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.4 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.6 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.1% 100.0% 5.1% 94.8% 5.3 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.8 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 8.9% 99.0% 4.7% 94.4% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.0%
8-10 6.7% 92.8% 2.4% 90.4% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.5 92.6%
7-11 3.8% 72.0% 1.7% 70.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.1 71.5%
6-12 2.0% 38.4% 0.8% 37.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.2 37.9%
5-13 1.0% 11.5% 0.3% 11.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 11.3%
4-14 0.4% 3.1% 1.5% 1.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6%
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 95.5% 14.3% 81.2% 4.2 10.0 16.1 17.3 15.2 12.6 8.9 5.5 3.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 0.1 4.5 94.8%