Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#231
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#266
Pace73.1#100
Improvement+1.8#51

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#248
First Shot-3.3#271
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks-1.0#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#251
Freethrows-0.4#198
Improvement-0.4#220

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#207
First Shot+3.8#69
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#357
Layups/Dunks+3.6#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#273
Freethrows-1.5#268
Improvement+2.2#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 6.4% 9.9% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 19.0% 23.5% 14.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 25.1% 20.4% 30.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 46 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 204 SIU Edwardsville L 60-77 57%     0 - 1 -22.9 -15.4 -6.8
  Wed, Nov 12 203 @Texas St. L 69-80 34%     0 - 2 -10.7 -1.8 -8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 300 @Denver W 84-79 53%     1 - 2 +0.3 +11.7 -11.0
  Mon, Nov 24 252 Abilene Christian L 50-61 54%     1 - 3 -16.0 -15.0 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 25 246 Georgia Southern W 77-64 53%     2 - 3 +8.2 -1.8 +9.5
  Sun, Nov 30 180 South Alabama W 70-69 52%    
  Sun, Dec 7 10 @Alabama L 72-98 1%    
  Sat, Dec 13 72 @Colorado L 70-85 8%    
  Wed, Dec 17 31 @USC L 69-89 3%    
  Mon, Dec 22 116 Seattle L 71-75 35%    
  Wed, Dec 31 111 @Florida Atlantic L 71-82 16%    
  Sat, Jan 3 148 @Temple L 75-82 26%    
  Wed, Jan 7 196 Charlotte W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 152 Tulane L 76-77 46%    
  Wed, Jan 14 213 Rice W 73-71 58%    
  Sun, Jan 18 70 @Memphis L 69-84 9%    
  Wed, Jan 21 123 @North Texas L 62-72 19%    
  Sat, Jan 24 148 Temple L 78-79 46%    
  Wed, Jan 28 107 UAB L 75-80 32%    
  Wed, Feb 4 81 @South Florida L 74-88 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 123 North Texas L 65-69 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 259 @East Carolina L 74-76 43%    
  Sun, Feb 15 196 @Charlotte L 70-75 35%    
  Wed, Feb 18 111 Florida Atlantic L 74-79 34%    
  Sun, Feb 22 91 @Tulsa L 68-81 13%    
  Wed, Feb 25 259 East Carolina W 77-73 65%    
  Sun, Mar 1 92 Wichita St. L 71-78 28%    
  Sun, Mar 8 213 @Rice L 70-74 38%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.7 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.4 2.1 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.6 5.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.4 4.0 0.5 14.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 16.2 12th
13th 0.7 2.3 4.5 5.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 16.3 13th
Total 0.7 2.3 5.3 9.1 12.4 14.3 13.7 12.9 10.3 7.8 5.5 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 81.8% 0.0    0.0
15-3 73.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 43.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 5.3% 5.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 8.9% 8.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.5% 6.3% 6.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
10-8 5.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
9-9 7.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
8-10 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 10.3
7-11 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-12 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-14 12.4% 12.4
3-15 9.1% 9.1
2-16 5.3% 5.3
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%