Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -11.6 336
Results Rating -12.1 337
Consistency 0.16 222
Pace 71.1 112
Improvement +2.0 110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 319 D- C- C- D- C
Defense D- 327 D+ F+ D+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 235 D- 51% 332 -3.8 314
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 134 C- 36% 242 -0.6 212
Three Pointers 43% 136 F+ 29% 341 -2.0 251
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 199 F+ -6.1 350
1st FG Attempt D- 0.89 346
Second Chance C 30.0% 191 D 0.94 311 C- 0.28 250
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 335
Other Turnovers B+ 5.9% 39
Turnovers C- 17.5% 229
Freethrows D- 0.25 336 C 72% 202 D- 0.18 334
Total Offense D -5.8 319

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 320 D+ 12.3% 264
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 178 D 7.6% 324
Three Pointers D 79% 301 C- 1.2% 264
Total D 49% 316 D+ 6.6% 286

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 D+ 61% 265 +0.8 212
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 320 C- 39% 213 -1.6 56
Three Pointers 46% 43 C- 35% 234 +3.5 326
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 269 D+ +2.0 260
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 266
Second Chance F+ 36.7% 352 D+ 1.09 273 F+ 0.40 347
Turnovers from Steals C 9.4% 192
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 320
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 255
Freethrows B- 0.27 86 C+ 72% 147 B- 0.20 85
Total Defense D- -5.8 327

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 314 B- 13.8% 71
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 318 C 5.0% 163
Three Pointers C+ 82% 138 C- 0.8% 174
Total D 62% 318 C+ 6.4% 117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 138 16.9 105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 125 0.25 361
Consistency 0.15 352 0.14 283
Improvement +3.8 26 -1.9 286

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 345 335 322
Results Rating Rank 346 342 321
Conference Record 1 - 17 1 - 17 2 - 16
Conference Finish 13 13 13
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 82 - 15
Quad 42 - 104 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 260 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 38% -3  39% 0 - 1 F -26 F -17 F F A- D- -8 C- F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 234 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 16% -10  0% 0 - 2 D- -12 D -6 F C B+ D -6 A F F
 Sat, Nov 15 243 @Denver W 84 - 79 18% +4  83% 1 - 2 C+ +3 B+ +8 A D D D+ -4 D- A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 241 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 25% -7  0% 1 - 3 F+ -15 F -18 F C- C C+ +1 A+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 261 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 28% -1  26% 2 - 3 B- +7 D- -6 F D+ A A+ +13 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 30 185 South Alabama L 58 - 82 25% -14  2% 2 - 4 F -29 F -20 F D- B+ F+ -9 D+ F B
 Sun, Dec 7 17 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  0% 2 - 5 F -20 F -20 D- F+ F B- +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 66 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  7% 2 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 D C- F C- -3 F A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 59 @USC L 70 - 97 2% -10  17% 2 - 7 F+ -15 C- -2 F A F F -11 F D- D
 Mon, Dec 22 125 Seattle L 68 - 71 14% -4  13% 2 - 8 C- -3 D -5 B F+ C- C+ +2 A- C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 120 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 6% -27  3% 2 - 9 0 - 1 F -34 F -11 F D D F -19 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 156 @Temple L 57 - 76 9% -9  0% 2 - 10 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -15 F D+ F C- -2 B+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 169 Charlotte L 58 - 74 23% -9  5% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -20 F -17 F D- B D+ -4 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 180 Tulane L 52 - 85 24% -19  5% 2 - 12 0 - 4 F -37 F -24 F F F F -14 F+ F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 237 Rice L 73 - 89 33% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 F -23 C+ +2 D+ B- B- F -28 F F D-
 Sun, Jan 18 108 @Memphis L 69 - 95 5% -12  0% 2 - 14 0 - 6 F -19 D+ -2 C D+ D- F -16 F B D
 Wed, Jan 21 141 @North Texas L 62 - 81 8% -14  0% 2 - 15 0 - 7 F+ -15 D -6 D- F C F+ -10 F+ F B
 Sat, Jan 24 156 Temple L 64 - 70 21% -0  47% 2 - 16 0 - 8 D -9 D- -7 D- C+ D C- -3 C C C+
 Wed, Jan 28 112 UAB L 73 - 83 13% -1  25% 2 - 17 0 - 9 D -10 C- -2 F B A D- -8 D- C D+
 Wed, Feb 4 55 @South Florida L 88 - 109 2% -6  13% 2 - 18 0 - 10 D+ -8 A+ +18 A+ A C+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 141 North Texas L 58 - 81 18% -10  37% 2 - 19 0 - 11 F -25 F -14 F+ D- F+ F -10 D+ F B-
 Wed, Feb 11 248 @East Carolina L 72 - 88 18% -12  9% 2 - 20 0 - 12 F -18 D+ -4 F+ D+ B+ F -14 C F F
 Sun, Feb 15 169 @Charlotte W 88 - 79 10% -4  17% 3 - 20 1 - 12 B +11 A+ +16 C A A+ D+ -5 D- D- B-
 Wed, Feb 18 120 Florida Atlantic L 52 - 60 14% -3  24% 3 - 21 1 - 13 D -8 F -21 F B- D+ A+ +13 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Feb 22 64 @Tulsa L 74 - 100 3% -12  8% 3 - 22 1 - 14 D- -14 C- -1 C- B C+ F -13 F B F
 Wed, Feb 25 248 East Carolina L 81 - 82 36% +2  56% 3 - 23 1 - 15 D -9 B +6 A+ A F F -15 F F B
 Sun, Mar 1 93 Wichita St. L 66 - 81 9%
 Sun, Mar 8 237 @Rice L 70 - 80 17%
Totals 3 - 25 1 - 17 -12 D -6 C+ F+ C D- -6 F+ C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- C- F+ F+ 37% 42% 43% C D- C D C- C- D- C D- D- D+ C- C- D+ 38% 16% 46% D+ D+ F+ D+ F+ D+ B- C+ B-
1.00 51% 36% 29% -6 0 0.89 30% 0.9 .28 17% .25 72% .18 1.17 61% 39% 35% +2 +1 1.07 37% 1.1 .40 16% .27 72% .18
Nov
7		 SIU Edwardsville F F A+ F F 33% 21% 46% C F C- F F A- C+ F D D- A- C F C 46% 29% 25% D C- F+ F F C+ F A+ F
0.83 21% 50% 27% -15 0 0.72 31% 0.5 .15 12% .33 62% .20 1.06 45% 36% 42% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.5 .50 19% .44 58% .26
Nov
12		 Texas St. D F D+ F F 48% 12% 40% B F D+ A- C B+ B C+ B D D+ A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 32% D A F F F F F C- F
0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27 1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33
Nov
15		 Denver B+ D+ A+ A+ A 44% 13% 44% B- A C+ F D D B B+ B+ D+ F B F+ F+ 22% 20% 58% C- D- A- A+ A+ D- B+ F B-
1.29 57% 67% 48% +12 +1 1.29 37% 0.9 .33 15% .36 75% .27 1.21 67% 36% 41% +7 -1 1.15 24% 0.5 .12 11% .24 86% .21
Nov
24		 Abilene Christian F F D F F 51% 16% 32% B- F C- D+ C- C A+ F C- C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 45% 16% 39% F A+ F D F A- D+ C D+
0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +1 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31 0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26
Nov
25		 Georgia Southern D- F F F F 35% 22% 43% F+ F C D D+ A A+ F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% B- A+ C F D- C+ F A+ F
1.05 47% 27% 29% -10 0 0.82 35% 0.9 .33 14% .58 68% .39 0.87 46% 0% 20% -20 +1 0.63 27% 1.3 .36 16% .62 58% .36
Nov
30		 South Alabama F F F F F 11% 11% 77% D F C+ F D- B+ F A+ F F+ A+ F F D 43% 23% 34% B- D+ F A+ F B C F F
0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03 1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27
Dec
7		 Alabama F F C F F+ 26% 20% 54% C+ D- F+ F+ F+ F C F F+ B- D- D+ A+ A+ 30% 6% 64% C A+ D+ C C- F A- F B-
0.71 43% 36% 24% -12 -1 0.76 19% 0.8 .15 23% .27 44% .12 1.25 70% 50% 23% -6 +1 0.93 37% 1.2 .43 6% .28 85% .23
Dec
13		 Colorado F+ F D+ B- D 38% 31% 31% D+ D B+ F C- F C- F F C- C+ F F D- 58% 9% 33% F F F A+ A- B- B+ A+ A
0.88 43% 35% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 22% .28 50% .14 1.22 59% 80% 44% +10 +3 1.27 46% 0.5 .22 15% .28 65% .18
Dec
17		 USC C- F C- F F+ 24% 27% 49% D- F A+ B- A F A+ A A+ F F D F F 41% 18% 41% D F C- F+ D- D D+ F+ D-
0.94 42% 38% 25% -11 -2 0.78 43% 0.9 .40 23% .40 83% .33 1.31 76% 44% 43% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .44 15% .44 79% .35
Dec
22		 Seattle D B D C- B- 47% 11% 42% A- B F D+ F+ C- F B F+ C+ B D- A+ A 55% 13% 32% F A- F+ B C- C F D F
0.92 60% 33% 32% -1 +2 1.04 21% 0.9 .18 22% .21 75% .16 0.96 52% 43% 24% -8 +2 0.91 31% 0.8 .24 18% .43 73% .31
Dec
31		 Florida Atlantic F F F F+ F 41% 9% 50% B F D D+ D D A+ B+ A+ F F+ F F F 38% 9% 53% F+ F D+ F F B- C- F D
0.88 35% 20% 29% -15 +2 0.75 21% 0.9 .19 19% .46 77% .35 1.38 68% 60% 52% +20 +2 1.45 34% 1.4 .48 19% .31 80% .25
Jan
3		 Temple F C F F F 42% 22% 36% C F B F D+ F A A+ A+ C- B+ B A- A 50% 6% 44% F B+ F F+ F B- D- A+ C
0.86 58% 10% 19% -14 0 0.73 33% 0.8 .25 23% .39 85% .33 1.15 50% 33% 29% -8 +3 0.92 47% 1.2 .53 15% .41 65% .27
Jan
7		 Charlotte F F A+ D- F 37% 12% 52% B F F B+ D- B F F F D+ D- B- A+ A 39% 6% 55% D- B+ F D+ F D+ B+ B+ A-
0.90 32% 50% 30% -12 +1 0.81 20% 1.3 .25 12% .21 58% .12 1.15 68% 33% 26% -3 +2 1.00 42% 1.0 .42 17% .28 67% .19
Jan
10		 Tulane F D+ F F F 33% 27% 40% D- F F+ F F F B F C- F B- A- F F 22% 12% 66% C+ F+ F+ F F C- A+ F A+
0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21 1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10
Jan
14		 Rice C+ D+ A+ D- D+ 28% 20% 52% B- D+ A F+ B- B- F A+ D F D D- F F 18% 16% 66% D- F D- F F D- D- C+ D
1.19 57% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 43% 0.9 .37 15% .25 85% .21 1.44 63% 43% 55% +23 -1 1.45 39% 1.1 .43 15% .36 68% .25
Jan
18		 Memphis D+ D A+ F C+ 30% 21% 48% C C B- F D+ D- F F+ F F D F F F 56% 13% 31% F F D+ A+ B D C A- C+
0.95 53% 58% 26% -3 -1 0.95 35% 0.7 .25 23% .16 67% .11 1.31 63% 57% 53% +14 +2 1.35 39% 0.9 .35 17% .30 67% .20
Jan
21		 North Texas D F B+ D D 27% 27% 45% D- D- F+ F F C A A+ A+ F+ D+ A+ D- F+ 43% 12% 45% D+ F+ F D- F B F A D-
0.91 42% 42% 30% -6 -2 0.86 24% 0.5 .12 22% .45 83% .38 1.19 62% 17% 36% +1 +1 1.06 54% 1.1 .59 19% .47 62% .29
Jan
24		 Temple D- B C- F D- 44% 32% 24% D D- A F C+ D F B- F C- F A+ C+ C- 44% 28% 28% C+ C F+ A- C C+ D- D+ D-
1.02 64% 38% 17% -4 -1 0.92 41% 0.8 .32 18% .15 75% .12 1.12 74% 17% 33% +1 -1 1.02 35% 0.8 .29 14% .41 77% .32
Jan
28		 UAB C- F C F+ F 34% 24% 42% D+ F C A+ B A B- A+ B+ D- C- F B- F 37% 29% 35% B+ D- B- D C D+ F B+ F
1.03 45% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.2 .31 13% .28 82% .23 1.18 61% 57% 29% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 10% .50 66% .33
Feb
4		 South Florida A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C+ A+ C A+ A C+ C D+ C- F F F C- F 52% 5% 43% D F F F F F B- B+ B
1.24 47% 55% 55% +12 0 1.26 30% 1.4 .43 18% .31 67% .21 1.54 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 47% 1.5 .71 7% .35 70% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Texas F B F+ F F+ 41% 30% 28% D+ F+ D D- D- F+ C- D D+ F F A+ A D 48% 19% 33% C D+ F C+ F B- D- F F
0.83 63% 29% 15% -9 -1 0.83 27% 0.9 .24 26% .35 67% .23 1.16 70% 22% 25% -2 +1 1.00 53% 1.0 .50 19% .41 83% .33
Feb
11		 East Carolina D+ D- F C- F 39% 18% 43% B- F+ B+ F D+ B+ C F F F C+ F A+ C+ 31% 19% 50% D+ C D F F F B- F D-
1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13 1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29
Feb
15		 Charlotte A+ C+ F C- C- 47% 15% 38% A- C C+ A+ A A+ C A+ A D+ F A+ F F+ 33% 8% 59% C- D- D+ F+ D- B- A A+ A+
1.34 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.04 32% 1.5 .48 5% .32 90% .29 1.20 75% 0% 41% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 20% .25 54% .13
Feb
18		 Florida Atlantic F F D- F F 34% 25% 42% D- F B C- B- D+ F F F A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% A- A+ A A+ A+ D C- B C
0.77 44% 31% 14% -19 -1 0.62 32% 0.9 .30 18% .22 50% .11 0.89 56% 36% 22% -8 -1 0.84 26% 0.5 .14 15% .31 67% .21
Feb
22		 Tulsa C- D F+ B C- 38% 20% 43% C C- F A+ B C+ F A+ D- F F A+ F F 43% 8% 49% C- F D A+ B F D- C D-
1.03 52% 27% 38% -2 0 0.98 15% 2.4 .35 15% .18 82% .15 1.40 74% 25% 42% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.0 .35 10% .39 80% .31
Feb
25		 East Carolina B A+ B- A+ A+ 32% 26% 43% D+ A+ B- A A F F+ A+ C- F D F C+ F 29% 36% 36% A F F F F B F D+ F
1.20 80% 42% 45% +15 -1 1.30 35% 1.4 .48 25% .20 90% .18 1.21 62% 56% 31% +6 -3 1.09 45% 1.4 .61 19% .48 73% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 76.3 22.3 1.5 100.0 13th
Total 76.3 22.3 1.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 22.3% 22.3
1-17 76.3% 76.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 58.1%