Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 #332
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #330
Pace 73.1 #74
Improvement -2.1 #286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #352 F D- D+ D C
Defense #248 C+ F C- B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 0.95 #356 -5.4 #340
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.60 #342 -1.8 #269
Three Pointers 44% #118 0.81 #355 -2.8 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.82 #363 -10.0 #363
Freethrows 16.1 #255 72% #211 11.5 #283
Second Chance 27.2% #276 0.87 #341 0.24 #334
Turnovers 17.9% #263
Total Offense -8.3 #352

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #195 1.12 #125 +0.9 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.67 #75 +3.0 #7
Three Pointers 47% #33 0.99 #150 -2.6 #288
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #140 +1.2 #140
Freethrows 15.3 #81 71% #101 10.8 #292
Second Chance 36.6% #346 1.08 #235 0.40 #331
Turnovers 15.6% #235
Total Defense -2.4 #248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #213 1.7% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -19.4% #365 -4.0% #106
Possession Length 16.3 #85 17.2 #169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #133 0.23 #333
Improvement -2.2 #311 +0.1 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 79.5% 67.1% 87.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 92 - 17
Quad 43 - 75 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 278 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 46% -3  0 - 1 -27 -17 F F A -9 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 261 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 22% -10  0 - 2 -14 -5 F C A- -9 A F F
 Sat, Nov 15 280 @Denver W 84 - 79 25% +4  1 - 2 +1 +10 A+ F D- -9 D- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 212 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 23% -7  1 - 3 -14 -17 F D D +2 A+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 230 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 25% -1  2 - 3 +9 -3 F D A+ +12 A+ D- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 190 South Alabama L 58 - 82 28% -14  2 - 4 -29 -17 F F B+ -12 D- F C+
 Sun, Dec 7 14 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  2 - 5 -21 -17 F F F +0 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  2 - 6 -13 -8 D- D+ F -5 F A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 47 @USC L 70 - 97 2% -10  2 - 7 -13 -0 F A+ F -11 F F D
 Mon, Dec 22 121 Seattle L 68 - 71 17% -4  2 - 8 -4 -5 B+ F D+ +1 A+ D+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 102 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 5% -27  2 - 9 0 - 1 -32 -8 F D D+ -19 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @Temple L 57 - 76 9% -9  2 - 10 0 - 2 -15 -13 F D+ F -3 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 170 Charlotte L 58 - 74 25% -9  2 - 11 0 - 3 -20 -14 F F B -7 B F C
 Sat, Jan 10 158 Tulane L 52 - 85 23% -19  2 - 12 0 - 4 -36 -21 F F F -15 F F C
 Wed, Jan 14 247 Rice L 69 - 72 40%
 Sun, Jan 18 83 @Memphis L 62 - 83 3%
 Wed, Jan 21 137 @North Texas L 57 - 72 8%
 Sat, Jan 24 140 Temple L 70 - 79 20%
 Wed, Jan 28 115 UAB L 70 - 81 14%
 Wed, Feb 4 75 @South Florida L 68 - 89 2%
 Sat, Feb 7 137 North Texas L 60 - 69 20%
 Wed, Feb 11 262 @East Carolina L 68 - 76 23%
 Sun, Feb 15 170 @Charlotte L 65 - 78 12%
 Wed, Feb 18 102 Florida Atlantic L 69 - 82 12%
 Sun, Feb 22 93 @Tulsa L 66 - 86 4%
 Wed, Feb 25 262 East Carolina L 71 - 73 43%
 Sun, Mar 1 105 Wichita St. L 65 - 78 13%
 Sun, Mar 8 247 @Rice L 66 - 75 21%
Totals 4 - 24 2 - 16 -11 -8 F D- D+ -2 C+ F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.4 4.3 9.3 7.6 2.2 0.2 24.1 12th
13th 9.8 21.6 22.2 10.5 2.4 0.2 0.0 66.7 13th
Total 9.8 22.0 26.5 20.2 12.4 5.8 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 5.8% 5.8
4-14 12.4% 12.4
3-15 20.2% 20.2
2-16 26.5% 26.5
1-17 22.0% 22.0
0-18 9.8% 9.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.7%