Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.3 #21
Expected Predictive Rating +18.0 #19
Pace 68.3 #212
Improvement +1.1 #122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #19 A- B B+ D+ D+
Defense #27 B+ A C B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.30 #59 -2.4 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #145 0.89 #41 +2.0 #78
Three Pointers 47% #64 1.17 #19 +6.9 #17
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #32 +6.6 #32
Freethrows 15.2 #291 75% #89 11.5 #255
Second Chance 35.9% #45 1.04 #186 0.37 #80
Turnovers 14.1% #48
Total Offense +9.4 #19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.10 #101 +4.7 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #2 0.80 #261 -5.4 #364
Three Pointers 35% #324 0.86 #30 +5.5 #17
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #49 +4.8 #49
Freethrows 15.9 #110 68% #33 10.8 #293
Second Chance 24.5% #20 0.95 #70 0.23 #18
Turnovers 17.0% #151
Total Defense +6.8 #27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #283 -4.0% #7
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.6% #14 -5.7% #77
Possession Length 16.8 #126 18.0 #290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #192 0.10 #14
Improvement -0.2 #191 +1.3 #106

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.0% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 25.9% 26.9% 13.4%
Top 6 Seed 62.7% 64.2% 43.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.7% 95.4% 86.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.5% 95.2% 85.7%
Average Seed 5.9 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 89.4% 67.5%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four3.2% 2.9% 6.0%
First Round93.4% 94.1% 83.8%
Second Round70.1% 71.2% 55.2%
Sweet Sixteen31.9% 32.8% 20.0%
Elite Eight12.4% 12.8% 7.2%
Final Four4.8% 5.0% 2.7%
Championship Game1.8% 1.9% 0.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.1%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 10
Quad 26 - 113 - 11
Quad 35 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 252 Lindenwood W 98 - 60 98% +19  1 - 0 +30 +14 B D A+ +12 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 141 Sam Houston St. W 98 - 77 94% +8  2 - 0 +19 +23 B+ A+ B -4 B+ D- A-
 Tue, Nov 11 8 @Illinois L 77 - 81 24% -4  2 - 1 +20 +12 A+ C- F +7 A- A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 63 97% +4  3 - 1 +10 +8 C- A+ C+ +4 B D+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 57 Wake Forest W 84 - 83 75% +2  4 - 1 +10 +10 A- B A- -0 B- B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 3 Purdue L 56 - 86 29% -17  4 - 2 -8 -6 F B- A -4 F A+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 245 New Orleans W 82 - 50 98% +12  5 - 2 +24 +2 D+ A F +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 96 Wyoming W 76 - 72 90% +2  6 - 2 +6 +5 B- C A- +1 C+ A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 44 LSU W 82 - 58 66% +18  7 - 2 +36 +13 A+ C+ F +23 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 26 Arkansas L 86 - 93 54% +2  7 - 3 +8 +22 A+ A- A+ -14 D+ F D-
 Tue, Dec 16 174 Northern Colorado W 101 - 90 96% +7  8 - 3 +7 +27 A+ D- A+ -20 F F D
 Sat, Dec 20 7 Duke W 82 - 81 33% -4  9 - 3 +22 +18 A+ B+ A+ +3 D- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 28 143 Winthrop W 87 - 57 95% +26  10 - 3 +28 +11 A+ C F +17 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 62 Oklahoma St. W 102 - 80 83% +12  11 - 3 1 - 0 +28 +22 A+ A+ A+ +4 A- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 5 @Houston L 65 - 69 23% +0  11 - 4 1 - 1 +20 +9 B- A+ A- +11 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 73 @Colorado W 73 - 71 70% +9  12 - 4 2 - 1 +13 +5 B D- B+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 113 Utah W 86 - 70 93%
 Sat, Jan 17 11 BYU L 78 - 79 48%
 Tue, Jan 20 37 @Baylor L 77 - 78 50%
 Sat, Jan 24 5 Houston L 68 - 70 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 50 @Central Florida W 81 - 78 61%
 Mon, Feb 2 18 Kansas W 76 - 74 59%
 Sun, Feb 8 59 @West Virginia W 72 - 68 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 73 Colorado W 84 - 73 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 2 @Arizona L 73 - 84 15%
 Tue, Feb 17 82 @Arizona St. W 81 - 75 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 74 Kansas St. W 87 - 75 85%
 Tue, Feb 24 56 Cincinnati W 77 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 6 @Iowa St. L 71 - 79 24%
 Tue, Mar 3 45 TCU W 77 - 69 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 11 @BYU L 75 - 82 28%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +16 +9 A- B B+ +7 B+ A C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.4 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 8.0 4.4 0.3 16.5 4th
5th 0.4 4.3 10.2 6.3 0.7 21.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 7.7 5.1 0.6 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.2 12.4 17.5 19.7 17.2 11.9 6.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 38.9% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 9.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.8 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.4 0.2 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 11.9% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.1 0.1 0.5 2.6 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
12-6 17.2% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.8 0.1 1.4 5.1 6.4 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.7% 99.8% 3.4% 96.3% 5.7 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.9 6.6 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 17.5% 99.2% 2.1% 97.1% 6.7 0.1 0.4 2.6 5.0 5.0 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 12.4% 96.8% 1.2% 95.6% 7.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.1 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.4 96.7%
8-10 7.2% 79.9% 0.9% 79.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.0 1.4 79.7%
7-11 3.3% 48.1% 0.5% 47.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.7 47.9%
6-12 1.3% 14.6% 0.4% 14.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 14.2%
5-13 0.3% 2.9% 1.5% 1.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.7% 4.2% 90.5% 5.9 5.3 94.5%