Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -0.3 164
Results Rating -1.7 190
Consistency 0.10 7
Pace 70.2 132
Improvement -0.4 207

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 105 B- C- B- C- D+
Defense D+ 266 D D+ C+ B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 107 C- 57% 195 +1.2 134
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 25 A 47% 14 +5.0 14
Three Pointers 31% 346 B+ 38% 33 -3.1 286
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 278 B +3.7 69
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 87
Second Chance C- 28.7% 232 C- 0.98 250 C- 0.28 247
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 140
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 70
Turnovers B- 15.4% 91
Freethrows D+ 0.28 262 B 76% 70 C- 0.21 208
Total Offense C+ +2.7 105

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 236 D+ 12.7% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 35 B+ 2.4% 23
Three Pointers B- 89% 83 B- 0.5% 82
Total C- 54% 209 C- 6.1% 229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 D+ 62% 277 +3.2 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 313 C 39% 203 -1.6 58
Three Pointers 42% 129 D+ 36% 284 +2.1 280
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 317 D+ +2.8 294
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 306
Second Chance D 34.3% 321 C+ 1.01 150 D+ 0.35 275
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 90
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 194
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 110
Freethrows B+ 0.25 27 C 72% 152 B+ 0.18 32
Total Defense D+ -3.0 266

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 225 D+ 8.3% 288
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 144 D 2.2% 324
Three Pointers C+ 83% 149 D- -0.1% 360
Total C- 57% 218 D 3.8% 323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 93 17.5 222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 51 0.21 308
Consistency 0.10 24 0.08 1
Improvement +0.2 178 -0.6 222

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 191 163 138
Results Rating Rank 242 184 150
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 5 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 50% 80% 23%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 6% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 412 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 185 South Alabama L 74 - 76 67% -9  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 A+ D- C F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 186 Marshall L 73 - 85 67% +1  64% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F+ -9 C- F+ D- D- -7 F A A-
 Tue, Nov 11 162 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 38% +4  62% 1 - 2 B+ +13 A- +10 B+ A+ F B- +3 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 15 254 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 77% +4  92% 2 - 2 C -1 C+ +2 A- D+ F D+ -4 D+ C- C
 Wed, Nov 19 204 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 69% +8  86% 3 - 2 B+ +12 B+ +9 A- C- C+ C+ +1 D- F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 151 Troy W 75 - 68 47% +2  54% 4 - 2 B- +7 C +1 C C+ C+ A- +7 B+ A C+
 Wed, Nov 26 62 Belmont L 72 - 87 19% -3  18% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 C+ D+ C+ C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 163 @Oakland L 97 - 98 38% +1  57% 4 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +9 B B+ C D- -8 D- D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 161 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 38% +6  67% 4 - 5 C- -2 D+ -4 F D A+ C+ +1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  0% 4 - 6 C -0 B- +5 C C- A+ D+ -5 D- D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 272 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 80% -3  34% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C- -4 C -0 F+ B+ C- D+ -4 C C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 266 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 60% -5  23% 6 - 6 2 - 0 C +0 C +0 D- F A+ C -0 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 321 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 75% +11  94% 7 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B- F D+ A +9 D+ C A+
 Fri, Jan 9 87 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 36% -17  0% 7 - 7 3 - 1 D -11 C- -2 D+ D- B- F+ -9 F D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 210 Ohio W 101 - 85 70% +4  51% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B +10 A+ +22 A+ A+ A- F -12 D- F C
 Fri, Jan 16 159 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 38% +0  43% 8 - 8 4 - 2 C -0 B +7 C+ A- C+ D- -7 F+ C- F
 Tue, Jan 20 190 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 45% -2  20% 8 - 9 4 - 3 C -1 B +6 A- D+ F D- -6 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 177 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 64% -1  31% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -3 C -0 D- B A+ C- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 72 @Akron L 81 - 91 14% -0  34% 9 - 10 5 - 4 C +1 B+ +8 A+ C- D- D- -7 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 313 Ball St. W 73 - 55 86% +12  92% 10 - 10 6 - 4 B- +6 D+ -3 C+ F C- A +9 B+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 159 Kent St. L 72 - 75 61% +6  91% 10 - 11 6 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -4 C D- B- C- -2 A- F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 202 @James Madison L 71 - 73 47% -2  27% 10 - 12 C -1 C- -1 B- D B C -1 D+ C B
 Wed, Feb 11 272 @Western Michigan W 90 - 79 62% +5  79% 11 - 12 7 - 5 B- +8 A +13 A+ F A+ D -5 B F F
 Sat, Feb 14 177 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 42% -6  24% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -8 C+ +2 D B A F -11 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 247 Eastern Michigan W 94 - 75 76% +17  99% 12 - 13 8 - 6 B +11 A+ +16 A+ F B+ D -5 B- F C+
 Tue, Feb 24 321 Northern Illinois W 79 - 69 88% +7  97% 13 - 13 9 - 6 C- -3 C+ +3 C- D+ A D -6 C- D F
 Sat, Feb 28 210 @Ohio L 80 - 81 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 87 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 87 18%
 Fri, Mar 6 206 Buffalo W 82 - 77 69%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 +0 C+ +3 D+ B D+ D+ -3 B+ B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- A B+ B 41% 57% 31% D+ B- C- C- C- B- D+ B C- D+ D+ C D+ D+ 42% 16% 42% D D D C+ D+ C+ B+ C B+
1.13 57% 47% 38% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.0 .28 15% .28 76% .21 1.13 62% 39% 36% +3 +1 1.09 34% 1.0 .35 18% .25 72% .20
Nov
3		 South Alabama B- B F A+ A+ 24% 14% 61% D+ A+ F A D- C F+ B D F F F D+ F 55% 12% 33% F F F B F A- A- A+ A+
1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13 1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09
Nov
8		 Marshall F+ F A+ C+ C- 41% 29% 30% C- C- C+ F F+ D- C- A- C+ D- F A+ F F 25% 10% 65% F F F+ A+ A A- B A- B+
1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26 1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14
Nov
11		 Wright St. A- A D+ A+ A 44% 36% 20% F+ B+ A+ B A+ F B+ C+ B+ B- F C+ D- F 36% 26% 38% B+ F B- F D A+ C F D-
1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -2 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27 1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27
Nov
15		 Detroit Mercy C+ A A+ D A 40% 17% 43% C- A- C+ F D+ F A+ D+ A+ D+ C D+ C+ C 43% 21% 36% F D+ D+ C+ C- C C A+ B
1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34 1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17
Nov
19		 Youngstown St. B+ A+ F A+ A- 56% 19% 26% B+ A- B F+ C- C+ A A+ A+ C+ B- B- F D- 38% 6% 56% D- D- D+ F F+ A+ B B+ B
1.23 77% 10% 43% +9 +1 1.22 36% 0.8 .29 17% .42 85% .36 1.01 56% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 30% .23 67% .15
Nov
24		 Troy C C C+ B- C+ 36% 36% 28% F C C C+ C+ C+ C+ B+ B- A- C F A+ A- 48% 7% 45% D- B+ C- A+ A C+ B+ D- B-
1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22 0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19
Nov
26		 Belmont D+ B B- D C+ 33% 15% 53% B- C+ F A+ D+ C+ D- F+ F+ C- D+ F F F 36% 4% 60% D+ F F F F A+ A+ B- A+
1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15 1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04
Dec
6		 Oakland B+ C- A+ F B 46% 25% 29% C B A C- B+ C D+ A- C D- D+ F B+ D+ 67% 6% 27% F D- A+ F D- F B+ B+ B+
1.24 59% 88% 22% +8 0 1.17 45% 0.9 .42 15% .21 79% .17 1.26 60% 50% 29% +1 +4 1.11 21% 2.0 .41 6% .27 70% .19
Dec
13		 Robert Morris D+ F F B- F 43% 35% 22% F F D- D+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ C+ A- C 42% 23% 35% C- C C- A+ A+ F F B+ F
1.02 45% 22% 36% -10 -2 0.78 24% 0.9 .21 10% .49 87% .42 1.09 65% 36% 29% 0 0 1.02 36% 0.7 .26 13% .47 64% .30
Dec
16		 Michigan St. B- F A B C+ 27% 31% 42% D C D B- C- A+ C A- B- D+ C A+ F D 48% 15% 37% F D- F B+ D+ A- B- C+ B-
0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19 1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25
Dec
30		 Western Michigan C A+ A+ F F+ 37% 22% 41% D F+ A+ D- B+ C- A+ D A+ D+ A- C- D- C 36% 27% 38% B- C F A+ C- A- B B- B
1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39 1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18
Jan
3		 Central Michigan C F+ B- B- D+ 37% 41% 22% F D- C F F A+ A+ A+ A+ C C B+ F D 38% 27% 35% C D+ A+ F B+ F A F+ B+
1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41 1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15
Jan
6		 Northern Illinois D+ D- A+ A+ B- 58% 19% 23% B- B- F+ F F D+ C F D A C+ A+ C C- 38% 2% 60% F+ D+ D B- C A+ A+ C+ A
1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21 0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14
Jan
9		 Miami (OH) C- F C- A+ C 28% 41% 31% F D+ C+ F D- B- B+ A+ A F+ F+ F F F 39% 13% 48% D F D- C+ D+ C- A+ F A+
1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29 1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12
Jan
13		 Ohio A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- D A+ B F C+ F D- F 31% 33% 37% A D- F F F C C A B-
1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26 1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20
Jan
16		 Kent St. B D F+ A+ C- 53% 13% 35% A- C+ C- A+ A- C+ A+ D A+ D- F+ D+ C+ D- 45% 11% 45% F+ F+ F+ B+ C- F F C+ F
1.17 52% 29% 42% 0 +2 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 15% .48 69% .33 1.21 67% 40% 33% +4 +2 1.13 41% 0.9 .38 13% .57 72% .41
Jan
20		 Massachusetts B B- A A+ A 36% 34% 30% F A- C- C- D+ F A- A A D- D B+ F F 45% 12% 43% F F F A D C+ D- C- D-
1.16 65% 50% 43% +10 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36 1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26
Jan
24		 Bowling Green C F C C+ F+ 39% 22% 39% D+ D- C A B A+ F A+ F+ C- C- F F F 67% 8% 25% F F F A+ A+ A+ A A- A
1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18 1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15
Jan
27		 Akron B+ C+ F A+ A 52% 10% 38% A A+ D- A- C- D- D B+ D+ D- C C D C+ 52% 9% 39% F C- F B F C+ B- C- C+
1.16 59% 0% 55% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 21% .24 77% .18 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.15 49% 1.2 .57 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Ball St. D+ A- B C- C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C+ F C- F C- D+ A- C A A C- A+ A- 43% 18% 39% D+ B+ D+ A+ A A- F C F
1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22 0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Kent St. D+ D+ A+ D C 49% 21% 30% C+ C C+ F D- B- F+ A D C- A+ B+ C+ A- 31% 24% 44% A- A- F C F+ C- C B- C+
1.06 54% 55% 31% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 15% .26 80% .21 1.10 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.85 42% 1.1 .44 18% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 James Madison C- B- A+ D+ B+ 38% 31% 31% D- B- F A+ D B F D- F C F C+ B- D+ 38% 13% 49% C- D+ F A C B D+ F F
1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17 1.10 71% 33% 32% +3 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28
Feb
11		 Western Michigan A C+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 15% 36% B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F B+ D A+ D+ B- B 28% 31% 41% A B D+ F F F C F D+
1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27 1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23
Feb
14		 Bowling Green C+ F A+ B+ C- 27% 33% 40% F D B+ C B A F B F F A- A- F D 50% 14% 36% C- D C+ F F F C- B C+
1.07 14% 59% 38% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18 1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22
Feb
21		 Eastern Michigan A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 19% 27% B A+ F C F B+ B F C D F A+ A B- 40% 26% 34% C- B- B- F F C+ D F F
1.32 79% 70% 43% +21 +1 1.46 17% 1.0 .17 13% .35 64% .22 1.05 71% 14% 28% -4 -1 0.92 24% 1.9 .45 18% .29 88% .26
Feb
24		 Northern Illinois C+ C D B- C- 47% 27% 25% D C- C F+ D+ A F A+ D D F B- A+ C- 47% 12% 41% D C- B F D F B B- B
1.18 62% 33% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 12% .24 86% .20 1.03 71% 33% 19% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .29 63% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 24.7 34.8 6.3 65.8 4th
5th 14.5 18.7 0.7 33.9 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 14.5 43.4 35.5 6.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 6.6% 7.7% 7.7% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.1
11-7 35.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 33.4
10-8 43.4% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.1 41.1
9-9 14.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.2 0.3 14.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 14.5 94.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.9 24.8 59.4 15.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%
Lose Out 7.5%