Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#173
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#176
Pace70.0#174
Improvement+2.0#43

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#102
First Shot+3.7#74
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#233
Layup/Dunks+3.4#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#315
First Shot-2.9#276
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#266
Layups/Dunks-3.6#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#337
Freethrows+4.4#7
Improvement+1.9#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.2% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 54.4% 72.6% 46.6%
.500 or above in Conference 58.2% 67.2% 54.4%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.1% 4.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.8% 5.2% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 48 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 180 South Alabama L 74-76 63%     0 - 1 -6.5 +5.7 -12.4
  Sat, Nov 8 183 Marshall L 73-85 63%     0 - 2 -16.7 -2.6 -13.9
  Tue, Nov 11 146 @Wright St. W 81-71 33%     1 - 2 +13.3 +14.6 -0.9
  Sat, Nov 15 328 Detroit Mercy W 90-83 85%     2 - 2 -5.4 +3.8 -9.8
  Wed, Nov 19 189 Youngstown St. W 92-75 64%     3 - 2 +12.2 +12.2 -1.1
  Mon, Nov 24 131 Troy W 75-68 38%     4 - 2 +9.0 +5.2 +3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 94 Belmont L 72-87 26%     4 - 3 -9.4 +1.9 -11.0
  Sat, Dec 6 138 @Oakland L 80-86 30%    
  Sat, Dec 13 185 @Robert Morris L 76-79 41%    
  Tue, Dec 16 12 @Michigan St. L 63-85 2%    
  Tue, Dec 30 243 Western Michigan W 81-75 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 305 @Central Michigan W 78-74 62%    
  Tue, Jan 6 280 @Northern Illinois W 79-77 58%    
  Fri, Jan 9 121 Miami (OH) L 80-81 46%    
  Tue, Jan 13 207 Ohio W 83-78 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 124 @Kent St. L 80-87 27%    
  Tue, Jan 20 181 @Massachusetts L 78-81 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 140 Bowling Green W 77-76 53%    
  Tue, Jan 27 58 @Akron L 78-92 11%    
  Sat, Jan 31 277 Ball St. W 78-70 77%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 Kent St. L 83-84 48%    
  Wed, Feb 11 243 @Western Michigan W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 140 @Bowling Green L 74-79 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 209 Eastern Michigan W 77-72 67%    
  Tue, Feb 24 280 Northern Illinois W 82-74 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 207 @Ohio L 80-81 45%    
  Fri, Mar 6 228 Buffalo W 82-76 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.2 1.9 0.3 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.0 2.0 0.2 11.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 5.6 2.4 0.2 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 6.2 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.6 3.9 0.3 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 4.3 1.3 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.7 0.1 6.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.9 7.5 11.1 13.8 14.9 13.4 11.8 8.4 5.4 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.2% 0.3    0.3 0.1
15-3 52.9% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 22.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.4% 28.3% 28.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.1% 19.5% 19.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.8% 17.1% 17.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.4% 10.4% 10.4% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.8
12-6 8.4% 9.0% 9.0% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.7
11-7 11.8% 5.5% 5.5% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.1
10-8 13.4% 3.5% 3.5% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.0
9-9 14.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.5
8-10 13.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.6
7-11 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.1
6-12 7.5% 7.5
5-13 4.9% 4.9
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 96.1 0.0%