Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#128
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#103
Pace60.9#357
Improvement+1.4#74

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#150
First Shot+2.0#117
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#295
Layup/Dunks+1.4#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#292
Freethrows-0.8#223
Improvement+3.2#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#111
First Shot+0.2#159
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#90
Layups/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#156
Freethrows+0.7#142
Improvement-1.8#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 18.7% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 86.1% 90.3% 76.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 89.9% 84.4%
Conference Champion 25.6% 27.9% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.0% 18.7% 13.1%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 69.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 412 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 301 Loyola Maryland W 67-56 82%     1 - 0 +3.2 -4.4 +8.4
  Sat, Nov 8 5 @Houston L 48-65 4%     1 - 1 +5.7 -8.8 +13.1
  Fri, Nov 14 233 Norfolk St. W 51-41 81%     2 - 1 +2.8 -13.0 +17.6
  Tue, Nov 18 147 @James Madison L 75-81 46%     2 - 2 -2.9 +10.6 -14.3
  Mon, Nov 24 106 Rhode Island W 62-55 42%     3 - 2 +11.3 +0.0 +12.3
  Tue, Nov 25 97 Liberty W 72-69 38%     4 - 2 +8.3 +7.5 +1.1
  Wed, Nov 26 96 UC San Diego L 73-87 37%     4 - 3 -8.6 +7.9 -17.7
  Wed, Dec 3 161 Cornell W 77-71 70%    
  Sun, Dec 7 68 @Central Florida L 69-78 21%    
  Tue, Dec 16 18 @Kansas L 59-76 6%    
  Mon, Dec 22 261 Sacred Heart W 78-68 83%    
  Mon, Dec 29 130 @William & Mary L 73-76 39%    
  Wed, Dec 31 235 @Hampton W 67-64 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 201 Monmouth W 70-62 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 162 Hofstra W 69-63 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 200 @Northeastern W 68-66 56%    
  Thu, Jan 15 151 College of Charleston W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 262 Drexel W 69-58 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 190 @Elon W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Jan 24 313 @N.C. A&T W 72-65 74%    
  Thu, Jan 29 113 UNC Wilmington W 67-65 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 235 Hampton W 70-61 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 162 @Hofstra L 66-67 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 251 Stony Brook W 70-60 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 201 @Monmouth W 67-65 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 262 @Drexel W 66-61 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 190 Elon W 74-67 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 219 Campbell W 74-65 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 251 @Stony Brook W 67-63 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.5 7.4 4.8 2.2 0.5 25.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.5 6.8 4.9 1.8 0.3 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 6.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.9 5.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.3 0.3 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.7 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.3 5.3 8.1 10.7 12.8 14.0 13.8 11.9 9.2 5.1 2.2 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.0
16-2 93.6% 4.8    4.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 80.1% 7.4    5.1 2.1 0.1
14-4 55.0% 6.5    3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0
13-5 24.4% 3.4    0.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.6% 25.6 16.3 7.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 49.7% 49.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.2% 45.4% 45.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-2 5.1% 36.5% 36.5% 12.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.3
15-3 9.2% 28.8% 28.8% 12.6 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.6
14-4 11.9% 24.4% 24.4% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 9.0
13-5 13.8% 22.3% 22.3% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 10.7
12-6 14.0% 16.6% 16.6% 13.4 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 11.7
11-7 12.8% 12.1% 12.1% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.2
10-8 10.7% 7.5% 7.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.9
9-9 8.1% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.7
8-10 5.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.1
7-11 3.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.6 3.9 1.0 0.1 83.0 0.0%