Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.0 174
Results Rating -1.4 184
Consistency 0.15 200
Pace 61.4 347
Improvement -0.9 231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 265 D C- C D D-
Defense B- 104 B- B D+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 D+ 55% 264 -3.2 294
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 55 C+ 40% 98 +4.2 29
Three Pointers 35% 299 F+ 29% 348 -5.7 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 334 D+ -3.3 295
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 321
Second Chance B 35.2% 48 F 0.84 360 C- 0.30 213
Opponents' Steals B- 8.5% 93
Other Turnovers D+ 8.3% 301
Turnovers C 16.7% 177
Freethrows D+ 0.28 256 D 68% 312 D 0.19 289
Total Offense D+ -3.7 265

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 286 C+ 9.9% 113
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 344 B 2.7% 35
Three Pointers F 70% 359 C- 1.2% 258
Total F 40% 361 B- 4.7% 73

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 222 B- 55% 106 -1.7 120
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 D 41% 296 +0.8 251
Three Pointers 42% 139 B 31% 49 -1.6 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 147 B- -2.4 82
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 95
Second Chance B 27.0% 65 B- 0.98 95 B 0.26 59
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.1% 208
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 314
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 268
Freethrows B- 0.28 100 B 70% 44 B- 0.19 76
Total Defense B- +2.7 104

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 50 C 10.5% 194
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 15% 16 C 4.6% 188
Three Pointers B- 81% 92 D+ 0.4% 278
Total B 48% 36 C- 5.1% 216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 284 18.1 300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 199 0.15 96
Consistency 0.13 256 0.16 352
Improvement -1.6 270 +0.6 149

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 202 176 154
Results Rating Rank 232 185 156
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 9 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 40% 58% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 31% 49% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 319 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 81% +4  55% 1 - 0 C +1 F+ -9 F+ D- D+ A+ +11 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1% 1 - 1 B- +7 F -11 C- C- F A+ +18 A- A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 304 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 84% -1  39% 2 - 1 C -2 F -20 F F A- A+ +20 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 202 @James Madison L 75 - 81 44% -3  23% 2 - 2 D+ -5 A- +9 C B B- F -16 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 131 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 39% +2  60% 3 - 2 B +9 C- -2 D+ F+ B- A+ +12 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 111 Liberty W 72 - 69 33% -1  36% 4 - 2 B- +6 C+ +3 C- A+ B B +4 A- C F+
 Wed, Nov 26 132 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 40% -13  0% 4 - 3 D- -12 B +7 D+ B- B F -21 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 165 Cornell W 93 - 80 59% +3  58% 5 - 3 B +10 A +12 A- A+ D+ C- -2 D A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 45 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 8% -17  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D+ -4 D+ B+ F F+ -9 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 18 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  0% 5 - 5 C- -3 F+ -9 F C+ D B +5 A F C
 Mon, Dec 22 284 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 80% +9  83% 6 - 5 A- +15 D -5 B F D- A+ +22 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 139 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 30% -8  27% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D -10 D+ -4 C- F B+ D -6 F A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 267 @Hampton L 62 - 63 58% -1  34% 6 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F C B- C -1 C- C- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 187 Monmouth L 48 - 62 64% -7  12% 6 - 8 0 - 3 F -19 F -23 F F B- B- +3 C+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 104 Hofstra L 67 - 78 41% -7  10% 6 - 9 0 - 4 D -10 D -5 D- C+ F D -5 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 288 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 63% +6  68% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +9 A A+ F D+ -4 D+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 147 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 55% +9  97% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +7 F -12 F B+ D A+ +19 A+ B+ A
 Mon, Jan 19 215 Drexel W 59 - 58 68% -7  6% 9 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -5 F+ -10 F B C- B +5 D A B-
 Thu, Jan 22 225 @Elon W 72 - 59 48% +5  72% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B+ +12 B +6 F A+ A+ A +8 B+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 275 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 59% -4  23% 10 - 10 4 - 5 D -10 D- -6 D+ F D D+ -4 F A B
 Thu, Jan 29 107 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 42% -3  12% 10 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -8 B- +5 B+ F A+ F -13 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 267 Hampton W 82 - 50 78% +18  99% 11 - 11 5 - 6 A +23 A- +9 A+ F B+ A+ +16 A A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 104 @Hofstra L 49 - 71 22% -18  1% 11 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -15 F -17 D- F D- C -1 B- C D-
 Thu, Feb 12 219 Stony Brook W 69 - 57 70% +10  96% 12 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 C- -2 D- C+ B- A +9 A+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 15 187 @Monmouth L 71 - 72 41% +3  76% 12 - 13 6 - 8 C +0 C+ +3 B- A+ F C- -3 D+ A F
 Sun, Feb 22 215 @Drexel L 62 - 68 46% -4  2% 12 - 14 6 - 9 D+ -6 D- -7 F C A+ C+ +0 B+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 225 Elon W 58 - 56 70% +0  50% 13 - 14 7 - 9 C- -5 F -16 F F+ B+ A+ +12 A- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 196 Campbell W 72 - 68 65%
 Tue, Mar 3 219 @Stony Brook L 65 - 66 48%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1 D+ -4 A+ D+ D- B- +3 F+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C+ F+ D+ 35% 49% 35% D- D B F C- C D+ D D B- B- D B B- 37% 21% 42% C B- B B- B D+ B- B B-
1.03 55% 40% 29% -3 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .30 17% .28 68% .19 1.05 55% 41% 31% -2 0 0.97 27% 1.0 .26 15% .28 70% .20
Nov
3		 Loyola Maryland F+ D D- D F+ 49% 30% 21% C- F+ B- F D- D+ B- B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ 45% 11% 45% D A A+ A+ A+ C- F C- F
1.03 57% 36% 30% -3 0 0.96 34% 0.8 .29 15% .33 78% .25 0.86 57% 20% 19% -12 +2 0.81 18% 0.2 .03 17% .46 72% .33
Nov
8		 Houston F D+ A+ F C- 38% 24% 38% C+ C- C+ D- C- F D+ F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% F A- A B+ A A+ A+ A A+
0.74 50% 50% 19% -9 0 0.83 28% 0.8 .22 28% .30 50% .15 1.00 82% 25% 21% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 18% .13 71% .09
Nov
14		 Norfolk St. F D- F F F 22% 16% 61% F+ F C F F A- D+ F F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 37% 29% A A+ D D+ D F A+ A+ A+
0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21 0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06
Nov
18		 James Madison A- A D- D- C+ 37% 31% 33% F+ C A+ F B B- A C+ A F F D F F 34% 11% 55% C- F A+ B- A+ F F F F
1.22 68% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31 1.32 73% 40% 50% +19 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31
Nov
24		 Rhode Island C- A+ C- C+ B- 23% 52% 25% F D+ B- F F+ B- B- D+ C+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% B- A+ B- F F A C+ A+ B+
1.01 70% 35% 36% +2 -5 0.95 34% 0.6 .22 20% .39 68% .26 0.90 57% 71% 5% -16 0 0.71 29% 1.7 .50 24% .35 63% .22
Nov
25		 Liberty C+ B+ A+ F C 35% 35% 30% F C- B+ A A+ B B- D+ C+ B F+ B A+ A 44% 6% 50% C+ A- C C C F+ A F B+
1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19 1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14
Nov
26		 UC San Diego B C- D+ C- C 25% 33% 42% F D+ A F+ B- B B A+ A F D- C F F 31% 22% 47% A F A- F C F C+ A+ A
1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25 1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12
Dec
3		 Cornell A C+ B- A+ A 45% 23% 32% C- A- A+ A- A+ D+ F+ F F C- F C- C D 54% 13% 33% D+ D A A+ A+ C- D+ D D
1.35 63% 42% 53% +12 0 1.26 47% 1.3 .59 16% .26 53% .14 1.16 71% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.23 24% 0.7 .17 17% .32 78% .25
Dec
7		 Central Florida D+ F+ A+ F C- 33% 24% 43% C- D+ A D+ B+ F D+ F F F+ D- F A+ C 45% 27% 29% C C F+ F F C- F F F
0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12 1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34
Dec
16		 Kansas F+ C D+ F F 30% 32% 38% D F A+ F C+ D C+ C C+ B A F+ A- A+ 41% 18% 41% D A D+ F F C B+ A+ A+
0.77 53% 31% 11% -17 -2 0.64 42% 0.6 .25 17% .23 67% .15 1.15 50% 44% 30% -5 0 0.94 34% 1.6 .54 14% .26 64% .16
Dec
22		 Sacred Heart D A+ A+ C B+ 31% 19% 50% D B B F F D- D F F+ A+ A F A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% F+ A+ C B+ B- A+ A+ F A+
1.11 81% 50% 35% +10 0 1.21 37% 0.2 .09 17% .22 58% .13 0.72 44% 60% 18% -16 +1 0.73 26% 0.9 .24 25% .02 100% .02
Dec
29		 William & Mary D+ B+ C D C 33% 24% 43% D- C- C+ F F B+ C- F D- D D+ F F F 42% 15% 43% B- F B+ A+ A+ F+ C A B-
1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15 1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23
Dec
31		 Hampton D+ C+ B- F F 32% 34% 34% F F A F C B- A+ D+ A C F A+ A+ C- 33% 30% 37% B- C- C- C C- B- F+ D+ F+
1.03 64% 40% 13% -8 -2 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 15% .51 65% .33 1.04 79% 23% 25% -3 -2 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 20% .41 75% .31
Jan
3		 Monmouth F F F F F 35% 17% 48% C- F C+ F F B- F A+ F B- A F A- C- 28% 38% 35% A+ C+ B- C B- A+ F F F
0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10 0.98 45% 53% 29% -1 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33
Jan
8		 Hofstra D F D- A C- 16% 45% 39% F D- B+ D C+ F A+ B A+ D C A+ D+ B 27% 30% 43% B+ B B- F F F+ F D+ F
1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35 1.16 58% 23% 37% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
10		 Northeastern B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 30% 18% D+ A A+ A+ A+ F C- C- C- D+ D+ D- C D+ 39% 17% 44% C D+ A- B A- F F+ F F
1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25 1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30
Jan
15		 College of Charleston F F C+ F F 29% 25% 46% C- F C A+ B+ D A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 36% 14% 50% D- A+ D- A+ B+ A A+ A A+
0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26 0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11
Jan
19		 Drexel F+ F C- D- F 36% 34% 30% D- F A D- B C- A D- A- B D F C+ D- 44% 25% 31% C+ D A+ F A B- A+ A+ A+
0.94 29% 38% 29% -13 -2 0.72 41% 0.9 .39 16% .40 71% .28 0.92 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 8% 2.0 .15 21% .08 25% .02
Jan
22		 Elon B F F B+ F 31% 29% 41% F+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ C A+ B A B- A+ C+ B+ 37% 12% 51% B B+ C- A B A+ D B- D+
1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24 1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24
Jan
24		 N.C. A&T D- C+ A+ F C- 35% 29% 37% D- D+ C- F F D A+ C A+ D+ F F D+ F 40% 16% 44% F F A B- A B F B+ F
1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33 1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 UNC Wilmington B- D- A+ F A- 37% 35% 27% D+ B+ F+ F F A+ A+ D- A+ F A+ F F F 24% 24% 52% B- F B+ C- B F D D- D-
1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27 1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30
Jan
31		 Hampton A- A A A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ D+ F F B+ B+ F C+ A+ A+ A D+ A+ 40% 25% 35% D A A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A+
1.25 75% 47% 47% +15 -1 1.30 26% 0.5 .13 14% .44 60% .26 0.76 32% 25% 35% -13 0 0.75 24% 0.5 .11 14% .32 50% .16
Feb
7		 Hofstra F F C+ A+ D- 39% 30% 32% C- D- C- F F D- A- F C C A+ B F C 25% 33% 42% A B- C+ C- C D- C- C+ C
0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22 1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22
Feb
12		 Stony Brook C- F A+ F+ D- 33% 30% 37% D- D- B+ D C+ B- D+ C- D+ A C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% B A+ C D+ C- F B- A+ B+
1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18 0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14
Feb
15		 Monmouth C+ B- B+ A A- 30% 32% 39% F B- A- A+ A+ F A F D- C- A+ B F D+ 28% 24% 48% C+ D+ F A+ A F C- A+ B
1.09 62% 43% 41% +7 -2 1.11 40% 1.3 .53 25% .37 44% .16 1.11 36% 33% 46% +1 -1 1.02 43% 0.5 .20 11% .31 61% .19
Feb
22		 Drexel D- F F F F 42% 35% 23% D F F A+ C A+ B+ D B C+ A- F A+ B+ 38% 27% 36% B B+ D C D+ F F A- F
0.94 45% 22% 25% -14 -2 0.71 21% 1.6 .33 8% .36 73% .26 1.03 47% 67% 19% -5 -1 0.91 33% 0.9 .30 15% .59 61% .36
Feb
26		 Elon F B- F F F 38% 23% 38% C- F D+ F F+ B+ B- B B A+ A+ A+ F A+ 57% 6% 36% F+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A- C+ A-
0.94 61% 27% 17% -11 0 0.79 30% 0.9 .27 13% .32 76% .24 0.91 41% 0% 41% -8 +3 0.91 20% 0.7 .14 11% .24 69% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 1.6 1.6 5th
6th 12.2 12.2 6th
7th 2.0 15.3 17.2 7th
8th 36.0 2.4 38.5 8th
9th 14.9 11.6 26.5 9th
10th 3.9 3.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 19.0 49.6 31.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 31.5% 4.5% 4.5% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 30.0
8-10 49.6% 3.4% 3.4% 14.9 0.2 1.4 0.1 47.9
7-11 19.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.2 0.3 18.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.6 96.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 13.8 0.4 28.5 60.1 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%
Lose Out 10.0%