Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #166
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #183
Pace 60.9 #355
Improvement -2.3 #296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 D+ C- C F F
Defense #142 B- C+ D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.18 #153 -2.9 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #23 0.81 #100 +4.8 #16
Three Pointers 36% #286 0.87 #332 -5.1 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #262 -3.2 #262
Freethrows 13.2 #341 73% #181 9.6 #331
Second Chance 36.7% #33 0.82 #359 0.30 #217
Turnovers 16.6% #179
Total Offense -1.4 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #221 1.16 #179 +0.6 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #145 0.85 #310 -1.5 #284
Three Pointers 41% #181 0.85 #21 +3.3 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #101 +2.4 #102
Freethrows 16.2 #124 75% #299 12.2 #200
Second Chance 26.0% #39 1.13 #287 0.29 #121
Turnovers 14.9% #283
Total Defense +0.7 #142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #346 -0.4% #132
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #218 -4.5% #95
Possession Length 18.7 #319 18.0 #292
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #181 0.14 #79
Improvement -0.6 #222 -1.7 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.2% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 53.8% 65.3% 38.2%
.500 or above in Conference 49.8% 61.5% 34.1%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.1% 3.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round5.8% 7.1% 4.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 336 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 83% +4  1 - 0 -0 -8 F F C- +9 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 8 5 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1 - 1 +7 -8 C- D+ F +14 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 289 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 82% -1  2 - 1 -0 -15 F F B+ +17 A+ D- F
 Tue, Nov 18 213 @James Madison L 75 - 81 47% -3  2 - 2 -6 +11 D+ B+ B- -18 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 123 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 38% +2  3 - 2 +9 +1 C- F B+ +9 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Liberty W 72 - 69 27% -1  4 - 2 +9 +8 C+ A+ B- +1 A- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 109 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 32% -13  4 - 3 -10 +8 D+ C A- -20 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 193 Cornell W 93 - 80 66% +3  5 - 3 +8 +13 B+ A+ D+ -5 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 50 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 10% -17  5 - 4 -11 -1 C- B+ F -13 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 18 @Kansas L 49 - 73 4% -14  5 - 5 -4 -9 F B- D- +2 A+ F C
 Mon, Dec 22 285 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 81% +9  6 - 5 +15 -2 B F D+ +19 A+ B+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 138 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 32% -8  6 - 6 0 - 1 -10 +1 C+ F A -11 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 242 @Hampton L 62 - 63 54% -1  6 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -0 F B- B -3 C C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 185 Monmouth L 48 - 62 65% -7  6 - 8 0 - 3 -19 -20 F F C +0 C C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 110 Hofstra L 67 - 78 43% -7  6 - 9 0 - 4 -10 -2 D+ C F -8 A F F
 Sat, Jan 10 236 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 52% +6  7 - 9 1 - 4 +8 +13 A+ A+ F -5 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 155 College of Charleston W 70 - 68 57%
 Mon, Jan 19 238 Drexel W 66 - 59 74%
 Thu, Jan 22 169 @Elon L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Jan 24 302 @N.C. A&T W 72 - 67 66%
 Thu, Jan 29 118 UNC Wilmington L 65 - 66 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 242 Hampton W 68 - 61 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 110 @Hofstra L 62 - 70 24%
 Thu, Feb 12 274 Stony Brook W 68 - 59 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 185 @Monmouth L 65 - 67 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 238 @Drexel W 63 - 62 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 169 Elon W 73 - 70 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 191 Campbell W 74 - 70 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 274 @Stony Brook W 65 - 62 59%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1 -1 D+ C- C +1 B- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 6.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 7.5 3.5 0.2 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.3 5.8 0.7 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 7.1 1.6 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 6.2 2.9 0.2 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.3 3.1 0.2 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.4 0.5 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.2 9.5 14.4 18.5 18.9 15.1 9.7 4.5 1.4 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 53.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 29.6% 29.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.4% 22.0% 22.0% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1
12-6 4.5% 17.3% 17.3% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.7
11-7 9.7% 13.1% 13.1% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 8.5
10-8 15.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 14.0
9-9 18.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 17.9
8-10 18.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 17.8
7-11 14.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.2 0.2 14.0
6-12 9.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
5-13 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
4-14 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.1 94.1 0.0%