Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.9 #28
Expected Predictive Rating +17.5 #22
Pace 70.0 #152
Improvement +3.2 #43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #22 A A+ C+ C+ A
Defense #43 A- C A+ C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #10 1.28 #67 +8.1 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #337 0.75 #180 -3.3 #328
Three Pointers 41% #184 1.13 #39 +2.4 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #24 +7.2 #25
Freethrows 18.1 #144 76% #82 13.7 #124
Second Chance 39.0% #14 1.29 #6 0.51 #3
Turnovers 16.1% #145
Total Offense +9.2 #22

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 1.04 #45 +5.6 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #89 0.68 #82 -0.3 #198
Three Pointers 44% #96 0.92 #68 +0.4 #162
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #32 +5.8 #32
Freethrows 18.4 #234 72% #158 13.2 #132
Second Chance 31.0% #191 1.05 #189 0.32 #191
Turnovers 21.4% #12
Total Defense +5.7 #43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.6% #18 -1.6% #58
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.1% #42 -9.8% #32
Possession Length 16.0 #65 18.1 #296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #21 0.15 #115
Improvement +4.2 #10 -1.0 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 8.2% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 24.3% 26.8% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.7% 87.1% 77.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.7% 76.9% 63.3%
Average Seed 7.8 7.6 8.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 68.2% 71.9% 46.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.1% 6.6% 10.3%
First Round82.5% 84.2% 72.9%
Second Round50.3% 52.5% 38.1%
Sweet Sixteen16.9% 18.0% 10.9%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.9% 3.7%
Final Four2.2% 2.4% 1.3%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 2
Quad 28 - 311 - 5
Quad 311 - 122 - 5
Quad 45 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 67% +8  1 - 0 +14 +5 C A+ F +8 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 197 Weber St. W 83 - 73 96% +4  2 - 0 +5 +5 D- A A+ -0 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 257 UTEP W 75 - 51 97% +12  3 - 0 +16 +2 C- B+ F +15 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 21 158 Tulane W 96 - 75 91% +6  4 - 0 +21 +25 A+ B+ A- -3 F C A
 Sun, Nov 23 149 Davidson W 94 - 60 90% +17  5 - 0 +35 +22 A+ A+ F +12 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 161 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 94% +3  6 - 0 -0 +1 C+ D+ B+ -2 B- B- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 75 @South Florida L 61 - 74 66% -15  6 - 1 -2 -8 F D C+ +6 C A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 170 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 88% +11  7 - 1 +28 +11 C+ D- A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 80% +6  8 - 1 +11 +18 A+ A+ F -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 97 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 88% +24  9 - 1 1 - 0 +44 +34 A+ A+ C +14 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 152 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 86% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +12 -2 B- D F +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 227 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 97% +1  11 - 1 3 - 0 +11 +27 A+ A+ A+ -14 F B- D+
 Tue, Jan 6 342 @Air Force W 99 - 62 97% +20  12 - 1 4 - 0 +29 +31 A- A+ A+ -0 C+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 78 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 67% +19  13 - 1 5 - 0 +35 +33 A+ A+ A- +4 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 85 Nevada W 80 - 69 85%
 Sat, Jan 17 90 @Grand Canyon W 77 - 71 70%
 Tue, Jan 20 134 UNLV W 88 - 72 94%
 Fri, Jan 23 97 @Colorado St. W 78 - 71 73%
 Wed, Jan 28 96 Wyoming W 84 - 72 88%
 Sat, Jan 31 52 San Diego St. W 79 - 72 75%
 Wed, Feb 4 48 @New Mexico W 78 - 77 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 96 @Wyoming W 81 - 75 72%
 Tue, Feb 10 152 Fresno St. W 84 - 66 95%
 Sat, Feb 14 83 Memphis W 81 - 70 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 78 Boise St. W 79 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 85 @Nevada W 77 - 72 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 52 @San Diego St. W 76 - 75 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 90 Grand Canyon W 80 - 68 86%
 Tue, Mar 3 134 @UNLV W 85 - 75 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 48 New Mexico W 81 - 74 74%
Totals 25 - 5 17 - 3 +15 +9 A A+ C+ +6 A- C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.9 11.7 19.0 18.1 11.3 3.9 68.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.3 6.1 2.2 0.2 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.9 7.6 13.2 18.1 21.2 18.3 11.3 3.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.9    3.9
19-1 100.0% 11.3    11.3 0.0
18-2 98.8% 18.1    17.1 1.0
17-3 89.6% 19.0    15.2 3.7 0.1
16-4 64.7% 11.7    6.2 4.8 0.7 0.0
15-5 29.2% 3.9    1.0 1.9 0.9 0.1
14-6 5.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 68.2% 68.2 54.7 11.6 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.9% 100.0% 63.2% 36.8% 3.7 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 11.3% 99.2% 56.7% 42.5% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.0 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.2%
18-2 18.3% 97.5% 52.8% 44.7% 6.8 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.4 4.4 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.5 94.6%
17-3 21.2% 93.5% 44.4% 49.1% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.2 4.7 4.4 2.7 0.7 1.4 88.3%
16-4 18.1% 85.2% 39.2% 46.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 4.3 4.3 1.8 2.7 75.7%
15-5 13.2% 76.1% 36.1% 40.0% 9.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.8 2.4 0.0 3.2 62.6%
14-6 7.6% 63.3% 29.5% 33.8% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 0.0 2.8 47.9%
13-7 3.9% 49.3% 26.1% 23.2% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.0 2.0 31.4%
12-8 1.7% 35.0% 21.6% 13.4% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.1 17.1%
11-9 0.6% 31.6% 25.4% 6.1% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.2%
10-10 0.2% 14.3% 9.5% 4.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.3%
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.7% 43.5% 42.2% 7.8 14.3 74.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 2.8 11.3 28.9 33.5 20.8 5.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 4.7 0.9 0.9 11.8 33.6 26.4 22.7 2.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 4.8 2.2 14.4 28.9 23.3 16.7 14.4