Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#35
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#22
Pace70.6#164
Improvement+2.0#42

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#32
First Shot+6.7#31
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#99
Layup/Dunks+6.4#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows-1.0#238
Improvement+1.5#57

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#50
First Shot+7.1#20
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#312
Layups/Dunks+7.2#12
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#298
Freethrows+2.9#35
Improvement+0.6#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 7.3% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 15.9% 16.5% 5.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.5% 66.5% 45.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.5% 46.6% 27.0%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 9.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.2% 94.2%
Conference Champion 51.1% 51.8% 37.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.9% 9.0% 7.1%
First Round61.3% 62.3% 41.1%
Second Round34.4% 35.2% 18.9%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 12.4% 5.3%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.7% 2.4%
Final Four1.9% 1.9% 0.7%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 95.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 2
Quad 27 - 38 - 5
Quad 312 - 220 - 6
Quad 46 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-77 60%     1 - 0 +13.1 +7.3 +5.6
  Wed, Nov 12 229 Weber St. W 83-73 96%     2 - 0 +3.0 +4.5 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 15 234 UTEP W 75-51 96%     3 - 0 +16.8 +3.7 +13.7
  Fri, Nov 21 152 Tulane W 96-75 88%     4 - 0 +20.9 +21.7 -0.5
  Sun, Nov 23 135 Davidson W 94-60 85%     5 - 0 +35.8 +22.3 +13.3
  Sat, Nov 29 186 Montana St. W 82-64 95%    
  Thu, Dec 4 81 @South Florida W 83-80 60%    
  Sun, Dec 7 196 @Charlotte W 80-68 87%    
  Sat, Dec 13 102 Illinois St. W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Dec 20 87 Colorado St. W 79-70 81%    
  Tue, Dec 30 153 @Fresno St. W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 187 San Jose St. W 82-64 95%    
  Tue, Jan 6 323 @Air Force W 79-61 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 61 @Boise St. W 72-71 52%    
  Wed, Jan 14 122 Nevada W 82-69 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 98 @Grand Canyon W 78-73 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 129 UNLV W 89-75 89%    
  Fri, Jan 23 87 @Colorado St. W 76-73 62%    
  Wed, Jan 28 117 Wyoming W 83-70 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 57 San Diego St. W 79-73 71%    
  Wed, Feb 4 101 @New Mexico W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 117 @Wyoming W 80-73 72%    
  Tue, Feb 10 153 Fresno St. W 85-69 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 70 Memphis W 81-73 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 61 Boise St. W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 122 @Nevada W 79-72 73%    
  Wed, Feb 25 57 @San Diego St. W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 98 Grand Canyon W 81-70 82%    
  Tue, Mar 3 129 @UNLV W 86-78 75%    
  Sat, Mar 7 101 New Mexico W 85-74 83%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 5.2 10.3 12.9 11.7 6.9 2.6 51.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.6 7.3 4.8 1.7 0.3 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.9 11.7 14.3 15.4 14.6 12.0 6.9 2.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
19-1 100.0% 6.9    6.8 0.1
18-2 97.8% 11.7    11.0 0.7
17-3 88.6% 12.9    10.4 2.4 0.1
16-4 66.8% 10.3    6.4 3.3 0.5 0.0
15-5 36.4% 5.2    2.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.8% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.1% 51.1 39.5 9.4 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.6% 99.5% 64.3% 35.2% 3.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
19-1 6.9% 98.4% 62.4% 36.0% 4.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.7%
18-2 12.0% 94.7% 53.3% 41.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.6 88.6%
17-3 14.6% 86.5% 45.9% 40.6% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.4 1.1 0.0 2.0 75.0%
16-4 15.4% 77.4% 39.6% 37.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 3.6 2.7 0.0 3.5 62.7%
15-5 14.3% 64.8% 33.7% 31.1% 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.3 3.9 0.1 5.0 46.9%
14-6 11.7% 47.9% 25.2% 22.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 0.2 0.0 6.1 30.4%
13-7 8.9% 35.4% 23.5% 11.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.7 15.6%
12-8 5.9% 25.1% 17.6% 7.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 4.5 9.1%
11-9 3.7% 13.6% 10.9% 2.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.2 3.0%
10-10 2.1% 9.0% 7.6% 1.4% 11.3 0.1 0.1 1.9 1.5%
9-11 1.1% 6.4% 5.8% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.6%
8-12 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 65.5% 36.7% 28.8% 8.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.5 4.0 4.9 6.1 6.1 8.9 12.7 14.6 1.1 0.0 34.5 45.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 2.3 25.0 35.7 26.1 12.1 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 3.2 10.5 15.8 35.1 22.8 12.3 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.2 8.9 17.8 31.1 24.4 17.8