Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +1.3 140
Results Rating +1.6 137
Consistency 0.16 208
Pace 73.8 47
Improvement +0.4 174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 180 D C B B- C+
Defense C+ 119 C B C+ F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 F+ 48% 359 -3.0 287
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 231 D+ 35% 281 -1.2 243
Three Pointers 41% 182 C- 33% 213 -0.4 197
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 155 D- -4.8 331
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 320
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 126 D+ 0.98 261 C 0.31 167
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 53
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 85
Turnovers B 14.5% 54
Freethrows C+ 0.32 145 B- 75% 110 B- 0.24 118
Total Offense C -0.6 180

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 240 C- 11.5% 218
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 133 D+ 6.6% 282
Three Pointers B- 89% 85 C 0.8% 166
Total C+ 57% 138 C- 6.2% 252

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 314 C 57% 156 -3.3 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 103 D+ 41% 288 +1.4 300
Three Pointers 44% 87 C 34% 196 +1.7 267
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 74 C +0.5 197
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance B- 28.1% 93 B+ 0.91 37 B 0.26 47
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 93
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 180
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 102
Freethrows F 0.40 360 B 70% 55 F+ 0.28 352
Total Defense C+ +1.9 119

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 311 C+ 11.8% 142
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 298 D- 1.7% 339
Three Pointers C- 85% 199 D+ 0.5% 267
Total D+ 60% 288 D+ 4.5% 262

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 95 16.9 112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 130 0.12 43
Consistency 0.13 247 0.10 41
Improvement +0.0 191 +0.5 157

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 161 138 117
Results Rating Rank 162 136 109
Conference Record 10 - 10 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 14% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 14% 11%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 76 - 11
Quad 412 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 311 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 89% +9  92% 1 - 0 C +0 D -6 F B+ C B +5 D C- A+
 Mon, Nov 10 287 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 70% -0  39% 2 - 0 C+ +4 C -0 D+ F A+ B- +3 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 217 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 76% +9  96% 3 - 0 B- +7 B +7 C- B+ A+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 16 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 6% -6  16% 3 - 1 B+ +14 C +0 B D D+ A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 55 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 21% +5  73% 3 - 2 C+ +4 C- -1 C C+ D+ B+ +6 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 93 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 32% +1  54% 4 - 2 B +11 A- +11 B- C A+ C+ +0 C A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 297 Evansville W 80 - 79 87% +3  55% 5 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 D+ D- D D- -7 F+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 186 @Marshall L 61 - 77 50% -7  24% 5 - 3 F+ -15 F -16 F F C+ C+ +1 B C F
 Fri, Dec 19 64 Tulsa L 81 - 82 33% +3  84% 5 - 4 C+ +5 B- +4 C- B- A C+ +1 C A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 194 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 51% -12  3% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 F D+ C D+ -4 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 105 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 51% -1  33% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +16 D+ A+ C D -5 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 216 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 76% +7  93% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 F B- B B- +3 A- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 176 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 48% -16  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -14 D- -8 F B+ A+ D- -7 C F B
 Sat, Jan 10 246 @UTEP W 68 - 56 62% +0  45% 8 - 6 3 - 2 B +10 D -5 D- D- A- A+ +15 A A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 207 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 74% +6  72% 9 - 6 4 - 2 B +9 A +14 C+ A+ A D+ -4 B- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 154 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 66% -5  15% 9 - 7 4 - 3 F -19 F -15 F F A D+ -4 D A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 111 Liberty L 69 - 76 54% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C+ D D+ -3 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 105 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 29% -14  0% 9 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -8 F -12 F A- F B +4 B+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 28 154 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 43% +0  35% 9 - 10 4 - 6 C +0 D- -7 F B+ A B+ +7 C- A- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 160 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 44% +1  57% 10 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 D -6 C- F B+ A+ +14 B- A+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 194 Jacksonville St. L 66 - 71 73% -1  32% 10 - 11 5 - 7 D -10 F -12 F F B B- +3 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 203 Florida International W 80 - 70 74% -1  36% 11 - 11 6 - 7 C+ +5 B- +5 F B- A+ C -0 C B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 160 Middle Tennessee W 82 - 80 67% +3  68% 12 - 11 7 - 7 C -1 B- +4 B+ B- F D -5 C+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 18 268 @Delaware W 88 - 87 OT 67% -7  3% 13 - 11 8 - 7 C- -2 A- +11 C A+ C+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 111 @Liberty W 94 - 73 31% +8  74% 14 - 11 9 - 7 A+ +27 A+ +19 B A+ A A- +8 D+ A+ A-
 Thu, Feb 26 176 New Mexico St. W 93 - 70 70% +21  99% 15 - 11 10 - 7 A +19 B- +4 A+ F A- A+ +13 A+ A- B-
 Sat, Feb 28 246 UTEP W 76 - 67 81%
 Thu, Mar 5 207 @Missouri St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Mar 7 203 @Florida International W 80 - 79 53%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +1 C -1 D+ D- C+ C+ +2 C- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C F+ D+ C- D- 40% 33% 41% C+ D C+ D+ C B C+ B- B- C+ C D+ C C 33% 23% 44% B- C B- B+ B C+ F B F+
1.08 48% 35% 33% -5 0 0.93 32% 1.0 .31 15% .32 75% .24 1.06 57% 41% 34% 0 -1 1.02 28% 0.9 .26 18% .40 70% .22
Nov
3		 Tennessee Tech D F A F F 54% 26% 20% C+ F B- A- B+ C A+ B A+ B B F C+ D 30% 17% 53% D+ D B F C- A+ A- A+ A+
1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43 0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10
Nov
10		 Eastern Kentucky C B+ B+ F D+ 42% 27% 32% C- D+ D F F A+ B F C B- F F B- F 10% 42% 48% A+ F A A+ A+ B- F+ A- D+
1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25 1.05 100% 64% 32% +13 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21
Nov
16		 Tennessee St. B B A+ F D 68% 8% 25% A C- C+ A- B+ A+ A+ C- A C A F F F 30% 28% 42% C+ F B- A+ A+ B- F B- F
1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34 1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40
Nov
26		 Vanderbilt C B- F B+ B- 38% 18% 44% B B B F D D+ A+ C- A+ A+ D+ A+ D B 37% 20% 43% B- B A+ A A+ A+ F A F
0.97 58% 11% 36% -3 0 0.96 32% 0.6 .18 21% .52 73% .38 1.03 67% 20% 38% +2 0 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 21% .58 70% .41
Nov
27		 South Florida C- C- C+ B- C+ 31% 29% 40% D C D- A+ C+ D+ A- C- B+ B+ A- A+ D- B- 47% 13% 40% B- B- A- A+ A+ C+ B- D+ C+
1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26 1.06 47% 22% 37% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26
Nov
28		 Wichita St. A- F A A C+ 40% 29% 31% C+ B- B D C A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B- D C- 31% 29% 40% A C C- A+ A C- F F F
1.18 42% 50% 40% 0 -1 1.00 32% 0.8 .26 11% .41 78% .32 1.10 53% 36% 37% 0 -2 0.98 40% 0.7 .28 14% .48 81% .38
Dec
6		 Evansville D+ F F+ A+ D 45% 24% 31% B- D+ B+ F D- D A+ C A+ D- D B- F F 12% 33% 56% A+ F+ F A+ C- B- F A+ D
1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29 1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22
Dec
10		 Marshall F F+ F+ D- F 35% 27% 38% D+ F C F F C+ C+ C- C+ C+ B+ D C- B- 26% 40% 34% A+ B D B+ C F C A- B-
0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26 1.12 53% 43% 35% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17
Dec
19		 Tulsa B- F F A+ D+ 38% 13% 48% B- C- C+ A- B- A A+ A A+ C+ D F B- C- 29% 8% 63% B C A+ B A+ D F A F
1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30 1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37
Dec
29		 Jacksonville St. D F F F F 31% 13% 56% C F A+ F D+ C B- F C- D+ D- F F F 46% 3% 51% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C F
0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24 1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52
Jan
2		 Sam Houston St. A+ F F B- D 35% 13% 53% B D+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B A+ D D D+ C C- 33% 25% 43% B+ C D+ B+ C+ D+ C- B C
1.32 47% 29% 34% -5 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31 1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20
Jan
4		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C F D A+ B- B A+ A A+ B- B B+ A B+ 31% 37% 31% A+ A- C+ D+ C- F F+ A+ C+
1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36 0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16
Jan
8		 New Mexico St. D- F C+ F F 37% 30% 33% D+ F B B- B+ A+ C+ D+ C D- A+ C- F C 28% 28% 43% B- C F C+ F B F D F
0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28 1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47
Jan
10		 UTEP D F B- F+ D- 41% 31% 27% D+ D- B F D- A- B- F D A+ F A+ A+ A 17% 38% 45% A+ A C- A+ A+ A F F F
1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22 0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32
Jan
14		 Missouri St. A F A+ A+ C 38% 29% 33% B C+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D+ D F A+ B 24% 12% 63% D- B- D+ F+ D- C+ D+ F D-
1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41 1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28
Jan
17		 Kennesaw St. F F D B- F 37% 16% 47% C F C- F F A D F F D+ A+ F F F+ 27% 22% 51% A+ D B- A+ A+ D+ F F F
0.90 24% 33% 37% -11 +1 0.81 27% 0.5 .14 11% .36 65% .23 1.12 43% 45% 42% +4 -1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 15% .47 76% .36
Jan
21		 Liberty D+ F F A D 32% 21% 47% C- D C+ C+ C+ D A F B+ D+ A+ A+ F D 33% 2% 65% B- D+ B- F C- B+ F D+ F
1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21 1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 Sam Houston St. F F F D- F 37% 14% 49% B F C A+ A- F C+ B B- B C+ C A A 49% 16% 35% D- B+ A F F F+ F+ A+ A-
0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25 1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14
Jan
28		 Kennesaw St. D- F F D- F 40% 19% 40% C- F B+ B- B+ A C- A+ B+ B+ A- A+ F C+ 59% 5% 36% F C- B- A+ A- B- F B+ F
0.97 26% 27% 30% -17 0 0.68 36% 1.1 .38 11% .40 88% .35 1.01 46% 0% 44% -3 +4 1.02 31% 0.7 .23 18% .52 63% .33
Jan
31		 Middle Tennessee D F B- B- C- 35% 19% 46% C- C- C- F F B+ F B F A+ C- F A+ B 40% 20% 40% D B- B A+ A+ B F A+ F
0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14 0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Jacksonville St. F C F F F 26% 22% 52% F+ F C- F F B B+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 56% 26% 18% B A+ F C F+ A F D F
0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34 0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65
Feb
7		 Florida International B- D F D- F 40% 12% 47% B- F A D B- A+ F A+ D- C F A+ D D+ 35% 31% 33% A+ C B- A- B+ B- D+ F F+
1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18 1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27
Feb
14		 Middle Tennessee B- B+ B- C+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ D A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ D F D+ A+ C+ 34% 25% 41% C+ C+ F+ F F C+ B D+ B-
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49 1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15
Feb
18		 Delaware A- C B- C- C 34% 24% 42% C C C A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F F+ F C D- 33% 24% 43% B D D+ F F F F D+ F
1.27 59% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.6 .48 13% .51 81% .41 1.25 67% 55% 35% +7 -1 1.15 22% 1.7 .37 12% .55 79% .44
Feb
21		 Liberty A+ C- F A+ B- 47% 14% 39% A- B B- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- F F A C- 51% 2% 47% D D+ A+ C A+ A- F A+ F
1.36 54% 14% 50% +4 +2 1.14 34% 1.9 .66 13% .38 96% .36 1.05 78% 100% 29% +8 +3 1.24 4% 1.0 .04 17% .51 59% .30
Feb
26		 New Mexico St. B- C+ A- A+ A+ 42% 15% 42% B+ A+ F F F A- A D- B A+ C- B+ A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% C A+ A+ B- A- B- F C- F
1.18 60% 44% 44% +8 +1 1.20 11% 0.3 .03 11% .44 71% .31 0.89 60% 31% 18% -13 -1 0.73 23% 0.9 .21 16% .52 74% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.4 5.7 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 18.8 42.1 18.4 79.9 3rd
4th 2.0 7.5 9.5 4th
5th 1.8 0.9 2.8 5th
6th 0.6 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.2 27.3 43.5 24.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 24.0% 17.4% 17.4% 12.9 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 19.9
12-8 43.5% 14.9% 14.9% 13.4 0.3 3.5 2.6 0.2 37.0
11-9 27.3% 10.1% 10.1% 13.8 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 24.5
10-10 5.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.8
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 13.4 86.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 21.6 65.7 12.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.2%
Lose Out 1.9%