Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 #150
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #138
Pace 77.4 #24
Improvement -3.5 #329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #179 D- C A- B- C
Defense #141 C- A C+ D A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 0.95 #354 -2.9 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.74 #190 +0.0 #181
Three Pointers 38% #244 0.97 #234 -2.2 #266
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #320 -5.1 #321
Freethrows 18.7 #116 74% #155 13.8 #116
Second Chance 35.0% #65 0.93 #303 0.33 #151
Turnovers 13.7% #29
Total Offense -0.3 #179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #347 1.17 #186 +4.9 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #46 0.82 #283 -2.8 #347
Three Pointers 44% #85 1.09 #284 -3.5 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #230 -1.3 #228
Freethrows 20.5 #318 71% #113 14.5 #63
Second Chance 28.1% #97 0.81 #7 0.23 #17
Turnovers 17.6% #114
Total Defense +0.7 #141

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #166 -2.6% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.3% #335 5.5% #282
Possession Length 16.4 #92 17.1 #160
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #141 0.12 #42
Improvement -2.7 #327 -0.7 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 9.0% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 74.1% 81.5% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.0% 79.8% 54.7%
Conference Champion 4.1% 5.2% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round8.0% 9.0% 5.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 77 - 12
Quad 410 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 314 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 88% +9  1 - 0 -0 -3 F B+ B +2 D+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 253 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 61% -0  2 - 0 +6 +4 D F A+ +1 F A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 226 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 75% +9  3 - 0 +6 +12 C A- A+ -6 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 9 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 4% -6  3 - 1 +15 +4 A- D D- +12 A A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 75 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 24% +5  3 - 2 +2 -0 C C+ C +3 B A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 105 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 34% +1  4 - 2 +10 +12 B- D+ A+ -1 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 251 Evansville W 80 - 79 79% +3  5 - 2 -7 +3 C D- D -10 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 171 @Marshall L 61 - 77 43% -7  5 - 3 -14 -10 F F C -4 B B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 93 Tulsa L 81 - 82 40% +3  5 - 4 +2 +5 C- C A+ -3 C A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 203 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 49% -12  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -4 F C- C -7 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 141 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 59% -1  6 - 5 1 - 1 +9 +18 D A+ C -10 C- C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 234 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 76% +7  7 - 5 2 - 1 -2 -2 F B- B+ +0 B+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 139 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 36% -16  7 - 6 2 - 2 -12 -3 F B A+ -10 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 257 @UTEP W 68 - 56 61% +0  8 - 6 3 - 2 +10 -3 F D- A+ +12 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 192 Missouri St. W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Jan 17 159 Kennesaw St. W 86 - 83 63%
 Wed, Jan 21 95 Liberty L 76 - 78 41%
 Sat, Jan 24 141 @Sam Houston St. L 80 - 84 37%
 Wed, Jan 28 159 @Kennesaw St. L 83 - 86 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 120 @Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 203 Jacksonville St. W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 172 Florida International W 85 - 81 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 120 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 74 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 271 @Delaware W 73 - 69 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 95 @Liberty L 73 - 81 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 139 New Mexico St. W 76 - 74 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 257 UTEP W 77 - 68 79%
 Thu, Mar 5 192 @Missouri St. L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 172 @Florida International L 82 - 84 44%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 +0 +0 D- C A- +1 C- A C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.3 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.5 5.4 1.6 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.5 5.8 1.2 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.5 5.1 6.0 1.3 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 6.5 1.9 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.4 2.7 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.2 0.4 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.6 8.3 12.5 16.1 16.8 15.3 11.2 7.1 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 90.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 67.3% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 40.0% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.1% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 25.8% 25.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.3% 23.3% 23.3% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-5 3.8% 20.8% 20.8% 12.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.0
14-6 7.1% 17.7% 17.7% 13.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.8
13-7 11.2% 14.1% 14.1% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 9.7
12-8 15.3% 11.3% 11.3% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 13.6
11-9 16.8% 7.2% 7.2% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 15.6
10-10 16.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 15.5
9-11 12.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.2
8-12 8.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 8.2
7-13 4.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.6
6-14 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 13.5 91.9 0.0%