William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #138
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #121
Pace 82.6 #4
Improvement -3.1 #322

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #187 C+ C- D+ C B
Defense #105 C C A- B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.27 #78 +2.9 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #313 0.72 #214 -2.7 #308
Three Pointers 46% #81 0.98 #227 +1.8 #125
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #125 +2.0 #126
Freethrows 17.0 #208 74% #133 12.6 #175
Second Chance 26.6% #295 1.14 #74 0.30 #211
Turnovers 17.9% #262
Total Offense -0.8 #187

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.25 #287 -1.5 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #349 0.76 #181 +2.5 #23
Three Pointers 48% #26 0.87 #32 -0.1 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #153 +0.9 #153
Freethrows 15.7 #105 72% #140 11.3 #270
Second Chance 32.2% #243 0.99 #112 0.32 #176
Turnovers 20.0% #29
Total Defense +2.1 #105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #65 1.7% #324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.0% #148 -3.4% #121
Possession Length 13.3 #2 18.5 #335
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.16 #142
Improvement -2.4 #316 -0.7 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 12.4% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 93.7% 95.3% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 82.2% 56.4%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.1% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 1.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round11.9% 12.4% 8.1%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 412 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 289 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 70% -4  1 - 0 -1 +1 C- A+ F -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 116 @Richmond L 86 - 90 32% -1  1 - 1 +2 +7 C- C A+ -4 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 15 @St. John's L 60 - 93 5% -13  1 - 2 -13 -11 D- A+ F +2 B- A C-
 Wed, Nov 19 131 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 37% +9  2 - 2 +13 +4 B+ C F +8 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 257 UTEP W 74 - 63 74% +8  3 - 2 +6 -4 C+ F F +9 A+ D B+
 Tue, Nov 25 212 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 66% +12  4 - 2 +31 +13 A+ C B- +16 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 244 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 80% +7  5 - 2 +5 +2 B+ F C- +2 C A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 132 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 38% +8  6 - 2 +9 +3 A+ F F +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 60 @George Washington L 86 - 99 16% -4  6 - 3 -1 +7 B B- C+ -7 D D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 254 Radford W 96 - 83 82% +3  7 - 3 +5 +5 D B A+ -2 C+ D- B
 Mon, Dec 29 166 Towson W 84 - 70 68% +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +10 +11 A+ F B+ -0 D- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 274 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 84% +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +10 +6 A+ D- D- +5 B A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 155 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 42% -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -4 F C+ A+ +0 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 185 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 49% -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -10 -2 D+ A F -7 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 238 @Drexel L 58 - 64 60% -5  9 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -11 F F F +3 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 302 N.C. A&T W 87 - 74 88%
 Thu, Jan 22 118 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 75 56%
 Sat, Jan 24 110 Hofstra W 76 - 75 51%
 Thu, Jan 29 169 @Elon L 82 - 83 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 191 Campbell W 86 - 80 72%
 Thu, Feb 5 118 @UNC Wilmington L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 242 @Hampton W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Feb 12 236 @Northeastern W 84 - 82 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 169 Elon W 85 - 80 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 191 @Campbell W 84 - 83 50%
 Thu, Feb 26 236 Northeastern W 87 - 79 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 @N.C. A&T W 84 - 77 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 242 Hampton W 79 - 70 79%
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +1 -1 C+ C- D+ +2 C C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.5 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.1 1.5 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.7 7.2 2.4 0.2 16.2 3rd
4th 0.6 5.5 8.7 2.9 0.2 18.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 8.3 3.1 0.2 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 6.3 3.6 0.4 11.8 6th
7th 0.3 4.0 4.3 0.6 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.7 0.9 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.2 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.0 10.7 15.6 18.9 18.7 14.1 8.1 3.2 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 79.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.6% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.1% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 39.2% 39.2% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 3.2% 28.6% 28.6% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.3
13-5 8.1% 23.6% 23.6% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.2
12-6 14.1% 19.3% 19.3% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 11.4
11-7 18.7% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 16.2
10-8 18.9% 9.6% 9.6% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 17.0
9-9 15.6% 6.3% 6.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 14.6
8-10 10.7% 4.3% 4.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.2
7-11 6.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.8
6-12 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.1 0.0 2.7
5-13 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.3 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 38.3 59.6 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%