Albany
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.6 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -10.4 #327
Pace 66.5 #244
Improvement +3.1 #48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #282 C- C- D- F+ C
Defense #305 C F D C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.16 #171 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.83 #74 +0.8 #138
Three Pointers 41% #187 0.91 #315 -2.4 #267
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #229 -1.6 #229
Freethrows 0.24 #339 66% #344 0.16 #352
Second Chance 31.9% #149 0.93 #325 0.30 #229
Turnovers 19.8% #345
Total Offense -4.1 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.18 #201 -1.1 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #255 0.69 #82 +1.5 #81
Three Pointers 42% #143 1.05 #232 -1.2 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.8 #203
Freethrows 0.32 #226 75% #299 0.24 #257
Second Chance 35.9% #340 1.24 #354 0.45 #358
Turnovers 13.9% #326
Total Defense -4.5 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #196 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.0% #228 0.7% #195
Possession Length 19.0 #333 16.9 #104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #160 0.16 #161
Improvement +1.3 #114 +1.8 #79

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.3% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 77.5% 46.8%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.5% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four9.0% 9.8% 7.1%
First Round5.1% 5.7% 4.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 105 @Marquette L 53 - 80 8% -13  0 - 1 -20 -21 F B+ F +3 C+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 174 @Massachusetts L 62 - 83 16% -7  0 - 2 -19 -12 F C+ F -6 A- F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 116 @Rhode Island L 61 - 80 9% -6  0 - 3 -13 -3 F A+ F -11 A- F F
 Fri, Nov 21 172 @Siena L 63 - 73 16% -8  0 - 4 -8 +1 A+ F D+ -11 D F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 210 Colgate L 67 - 69 29% +2  0 - 5 -5 -2 B D- F -3 C- C D+
 Sat, Nov 29 196 Fordham L 68 - 88 27% -11  0 - 6 -22 -2 D- B- C+ -21 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 169 @Columbia L 65 - 93 15% -9  0 - 7 -26 -6 D F C- -20 D- F D
 Wed, Dec 10 72 Yale L 82 - 93 7% -6  0 - 8 -3 +6 A F A+ -9 C B C-
 Sat, Dec 13 101 @Florida Atlantic L 79 - 105 7% -20  0 - 9 -18 -1 B- F+ C- -14 F B C-
 Wed, Dec 17 241 @Stony Brook W 71 - 55 24% +8  1 - 9 +15 +2 A+ F F+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 175 Cornell L 75 - 83 33% +0  1 - 10 -12 +5 B- C- C- -19 D+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 30 77 @South Carolina L 67 - 96 5% -16  1 - 11 -19 +6 F A+ F -27 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 315 @Umass Lowell L 71 - 83 41% -10  1 - 12 0 - 1 -18 -2 F+ C+ D -17 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 346 Bryant W 71 - 46 73% +13  2 - 12 1 - 1 +10 +9 A+ F C +7 A+ F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 362 Binghamton W 69 - 53 84% +5  3 - 12 2 - 1 -3 -5 D D+ F +4 A- C D
 Mon, Jan 19 198 Vermont W 75 - 68 38% +3  4 - 12 3 - 1 +1 -0 C+ F+ C- +2 C+ C A-
 Thu, Jan 22 336 @Maine L 49 - 52 48% +4  4 - 13 3 - 2 -11 -11 F D+ F+ -1 B B F
 Sat, Jan 24 318 @New Hampshire L 72 - 80 42% -3  4 - 14 3 - 3 -15 +4 A- C+ F -19 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 340 NJIT W 75 - 69 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 265 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 72 - 73 49%
 Thu, Feb 5 346 @Bryant W 68 - 67 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 315 Umass Lowell W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 362 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 @NJIT L 71 - 72 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 265 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 336 Maine W 67 - 62 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 318 New Hampshire W 73 - 69 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 198 @Vermont L 66 - 75 21%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 8 -9 -4 C- C- D- -5 C F D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 6.3 5.0 1.1 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 11.2 7.5 1.2 0.0 22.1 3rd
4th 1.0 9.4 7.8 0.8 0.0 18.9 4th
5th 0.3 6.0 8.5 1.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 7.9 1.8 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.9 2.5 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.5 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.4 17.5 21.9 21.5 14.8 7.2 2.2 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 96.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1
12-4 50.3% 1.1    0.5 0.6 0.1
11-5 14.4% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
10-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.3% 21.8% 21.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 2.2% 21.8% 21.8% 15.9 0.0 0.5 1.8
11-5 7.2% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 1.2 6.0
10-6 14.8% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 2.0 12.8
9-7 21.5% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 2.2 19.3
8-8 21.9% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 1.8 20.1
7-9 17.5% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 1.0 16.4
6-10 9.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 9.0
5-11 3.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.7
4-12 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 16.0 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%