Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#299
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#234
Pace60.9#341
Improvement+1.0#94

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#327
First Shot-5.0#313
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#246
Layup/Dunks-6.7#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#301
Freethrows+3.7#13
Improvement-0.4#222

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#228
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#347
Layups/Dunks+0.2#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#67
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement+1.3#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.5% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 26.4% 39.5% 18.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 59.4% 45.9%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 5.4% 8.6%
First Four4.0% 4.9% 3.5%
First Round4.4% 5.5% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 412 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 51-91 1%     0 - 1 -19.4 -7.5 -17.3
  Nov 13, 2021 220   @ Saint Joseph's L 60-80 22%     0 - 2 -19.5 -12.9 -6.9
  Nov 16, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 55-80 2%     0 - 3 -6.5 -6.7 -1.2
  Nov 19, 2021 290   @ Robert Morris W 74-70 OT 37%     1 - 3 +0.0 -11.4 +10.9
  Nov 22, 2021 76   @ Ohio L 59-73 6%     1 - 4 -4.1 -5.1 -0.3
  Nov 27, 2021 101   Navy L 40-67 20%     1 - 5 -25.5 -27.0 -0.3
  Nov 30, 2021 310   Howard W 72-70 64%     2 - 5 -9.2 -5.3 -3.8
  Dec 04, 2021 287   @ Loyola Maryland L 60-64 37%    
  Dec 07, 2021 82   @ Santa Clara L 59-76 5%    
  Dec 11, 2021 320   American W 67-62 66%    
  Dec 18, 2021 314   Morgan St. W 68-64 65%    
  Dec 22, 2021 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 64-66 41%    
  Dec 29, 2021 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-67 70%    
  Dec 31, 2021 156   Wagner L 60-65 32%    
  Jan 06, 2022 276   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 08, 2022 331   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 236   @ Bryant L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 17, 2022 232   @ Merrimack L 53-60 27%    
  Jan 21, 2022 309   Sacred Heart W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 23, 2022 348   Central Connecticut St. W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 267   St. Francis (PA) W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 03, 2022 232   Merrimack L 56-57 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 236   Bryant L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 10, 2022 156   @ Wagner L 57-68 17%    
  Feb 12, 2022 267   @ St. Francis (PA) L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 17, 2022 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 276   LIU Brooklyn W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 309   @ Sacred Heart L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 348   @ Central Connecticut St. W 66-62 62%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 6.4 4.1 0.6 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.6 3.5 0.5 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.9 3.0 0.4 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.1 2.6 0.5 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.7 1.7 0.2 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 3.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.2 6.7 9.0 12.3 13.7 13.3 12.2 9.7 6.8 4.2 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 86.2% 1.2    0.9 0.3
14-4 56.6% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.9% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 31.6% 31.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.4% 32.1% 32.1% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.9
14-4 2.8% 16.9% 16.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.3
13-5 4.2% 29.3% 29.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0
12-6 6.8% 14.4% 14.4% 15.9 0.1 0.9 5.8
11-7 9.7% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7 8.0
10-8 12.2% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2 11.0
9-9 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 12.9
8-10 13.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.6
7-11 12.3% 12.3
6-12 9.0% 9.0
5-13 6.7% 6.7
4-14 4.2% 4.2
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.0 5.7 93.3 0.0%