Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #295
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 #287
Pace 69.0 #171
Improvement +2.9 #64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #326 C- D+ F D+ B-
Defense #216 C C D- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #130 1.12 #212 +0.4 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.64 #333 -3.0 #322
Three Pointers 45% #116 1.00 #214 +1.3 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #215 -1.3 #216
Freethrows 0.28 #253 67% #328 0.19 #292
Second Chance 27.0% #280 1.04 #194 0.28 #263
Turnovers 21.0% #360
Total Offense -6.2 #326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.10 #98 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.80 #258 -0.3 #210
Three Pointers 44% #85 1.02 #191 -1.7 #264
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #157 +0.7 #157
Freethrows 0.34 #294 74% #290 0.25 #305
Second Chance 31.5% #229 1.00 #113 0.32 #173
Turnovers 13.3% #334
Total Defense -1.2 #216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #71 -0.3% #141
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #243 -1.0% #161
Possession Length 17.7 #210 17.4 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #279 0.20 #288
Improvement -0.5 #212 +3.4 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.0% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.1% 5.5% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 41.3% 50.7% 19.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 412 - 813 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 57 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  0 - 1 -3 -9 F+ A+ F +5 B A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 322 Bucknell L 62 - 73 70% +1  0 - 2 -24 -11 F F F -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 353 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 63% +5  1 - 2 -3 -2 B F F -0 B+ B D
 Sun, Nov 16 52 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 4% -0  1 - 3 -4 -8 C D+ F +5 B A- D+
 Wed, Nov 19 106 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  1 - 4 +2 +12 A B F -9 D+ B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 274 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 34% -8  1 - 5 -26 -15 D- D- F -12 D D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  1 - 6 -36 -9 C F C- -24 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 275 Howard W 79 - 75 58% +5  2 - 6 -5 +4 A C- D- -10 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 3 270 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 56% -3  2 - 7 0 - 1 -16 +3 C+ B C- -19 A- F D-
 Fri, Dec 5 164 @Marist L 56 - 64 17% -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -12 D- D F +7 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 319 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 46% +5  3 - 8 +2 -1 B C+ F +2 D A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 200 @Drexel L 67 - 75 22% -11  3 - 9 -7 -4 B C+ F -3 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 231 Iona W 66 - 59 49% -2  4 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -12 C- F F +12 A+ C- B
 Fri, Jan 2 209 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 24% -6  4 - 10 1 - 3 -10 -6 D- D- F -4 C+ C- D+
 Sun, Jan 4 190 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 21% -9  4 - 11 1 - 4 -10 -3 F B- D- -7 F+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 227 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 47% -7  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -2 F C D+ +0 B A- C+
 Sun, Jan 11 175 Siena L 50 - 67 38% -9  5 - 12 2 - 5 -21 -18 F C F -5 C+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 339 @Canisius W 78 - 68 53% -3  6 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +7 A- D- F -4 F A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 345 @Niagara W 68 - 58 56% -3  7 - 12 4 - 5 +1 +1 B- F+ D+ +2 A+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 22 190 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 41% -12  7 - 13 4 - 6 -20 -13 C+ F F -8 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 352 Rider W 71 - 61 80% -4  8 - 13 5 - 6 -6 +1 A C F -6 A F F+
 Fri, Jan 30 227 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 26% -1  8 - 14 5 - 7 -9 -5 D C- F -5 C C D-
 Sun, Feb 1 328 Manhattan W 78 - 72 70%
 Thu, Feb 5 209 Merrimack L 66 - 67 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Iona L 69 - 75 27%
 Fri, Feb 13 352 @Rider W 70 - 67 60%
 Fri, Feb 20 345 Niagara W 70 - 63 75%
 Sun, Feb 22 339 Canisius W 70 - 63 73%
 Fri, Feb 27 270 @Sacred Heart L 74 - 78 33%
 Sun, Mar 1 269 @Fairfield L 70 - 75 34%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7 -6 C- D+ F -1 C C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 2.1 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.4 5.2 6.6 0.9 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 4.3 10.5 2.8 0.1 17.9 7th
8th 0.1 3.5 13.8 6.7 0.3 0.0 24.4 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 10.6 7.9 0.7 21.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.3 5.0 0.7 11.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.2 3.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.3 2.6 9.2 19.4 27.2 23.4 12.9 4.4 0.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.6% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.1 0.1 4.1
11-9 12.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.5
10-10 23.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 23.0
9-11 27.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 26.9
8-12 19.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.2
7-13 9.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.1
6-14 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%