Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#299
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#305
Pace68.3#216
Improvement+0.9#118

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#293
First Shot-2.9#258
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#276
Layup/Dunks+0.1#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows-2.9#325
Improvement+0.1#173

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#274
First Shot-2.2#250
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#255
Layups/Dunks+4.2#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#248
Freethrows-1.5#276
Improvement+0.8#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 15.5% 26.7% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 44.5% 34.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 4.8% 6.9%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 913 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 64 @West Virginia L 54-70 5%     0 - 1 -4.4 -9.7 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 7 304 Bucknell L 62-73 63%     0 - 2 -21.9 -10.2 -12.5
  Tue, Nov 11 363 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 69%     1 - 2 -4.6 -1.9 -2.5
  Sun, Nov 16 78 @Cincinnati L 55-72 6%     1 - 3 -6.5 -9.4 +3.6
  Wed, Nov 19 95 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 8%     1 - 4 +3.5 +11.7 -7.6
  Sun, Nov 23 253 @Western Michigan L 60-83 30%     1 - 5 -25.1 -12.8 -13.0
  Tue, Nov 25 31 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -36.4 -8.6 -25.3
  Sat, Nov 29 300 Howard W 79-75 62%     2 - 6 -6.6 +2.0 -8.6
  Wed, Dec 3 257 Sacred Heart L 80-87 53%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -15.3 +4.4 -19.9
  Fri, Dec 5 156 @Marist L 56-64 16%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -4.8 -11.2 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 13 339 @Loyola Maryland W 81-73 52%     3 - 8 -0.1 -2.5 +1.9
  Fri, Dec 19 270 @Drexel L 66-71 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 171 Iona L 74-78 37%    
  Fri, Jan 2 269 @Merrimack L 65-70 33%    
  Sun, Jan 4 169 @Quinnipiac L 70-80 18%    
  Fri, Jan 9 293 St. Peter's W 69-66 60%    
  Sun, Jan 11 164 Siena L 67-71 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 340 @Canisius W 67-66 52%    
  Mon, Jan 19 353 @Niagara W 69-66 59%    
  Thu, Jan 22 169 Quinnipiac L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 348 Rider W 70-62 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 293 @St. Peter's L 66-69 38%    
  Sun, Feb 1 320 Manhattan W 78-73 67%    
  Thu, Feb 5 269 Merrimack W 68-67 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 171 @Iona L 71-81 19%    
  Fri, Feb 13 348 @Rider W 67-65 55%    
  Fri, Feb 20 353 Niagara W 72-63 78%    
  Sun, Feb 22 340 Canisius W 70-63 72%    
  Fri, Feb 27 257 @Sacred Heart L 73-78 32%    
  Sun, Mar 1 296 @Fairfield L 70-73 39%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.9 1.4 0.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.3 5.2 1.4 0.1 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.8 5.3 1.6 0.2 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.6 4.6 1.8 0.2 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 3.4 1.5 0.1 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.4 1.1 0.2 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 6.5 9.2 12.6 14.4 14.0 12.8 10.4 7.0 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 50.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 25.9% 25.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-6 2.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8
13-7 4.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.8
12-8 7.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.7
11-9 10.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.0
10-10 12.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.6
9-11 14.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.8
8-12 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
6-14 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 6.5% 6.5
4-16 3.4% 3.4
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.7 98.0 0.0%