Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#301
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#303
Pace68.3#220
Improvement-1.0#260

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#282
First Shot-1.8#226
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#307
Layup/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#163
Freethrows-2.6#313
Improvement+0.9#101

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#291
First Shot-3.5#295
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#193
Layups/Dunks+3.3#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#249
Freethrows-1.1#247
Improvement-2.0#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.1% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 19.0% 25.8% 10.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 58.5% 32.9%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.5% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 2.8% 9.7%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
First Round1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 1013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 68 @West Virginia L 54-70 5%     0 - 1 -4.7 -9.0 +3.7
  Fri, Nov 7 307 Bucknell L 62-73 62%     0 - 2 -21.9 -11.3 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 11 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 61%     1 - 2 -2.7 -1.0 -1.5
  Sun, Nov 16 64 @Cincinnati L 55-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.2 -8.7 +4.2
  Wed, Nov 19 89 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 7%     1 - 4 +4.0 +12.6 -8.1
  Sun, Nov 23 275 @Western Michigan L 60-83 33%     1 - 5 -26.3 -12.6 -14.3
  Tue, Nov 25 24 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -35.6 -7.6 -25.7
  Sat, Nov 29 311 Howard W 79-75 64%     2 - 6 -7.3 +0.5 -7.9
  Wed, Dec 3 278 Sacred Heart W 78-76 56%    
  Fri, Dec 5 151 @Marist L 59-70 15%    
  Sat, Dec 13 309 @Loyola Maryland L 71-74 40%    
  Fri, Dec 19 260 @Drexel L 66-71 31%    
  Mon, Dec 29 149 Iona L 76-81 31%    
  Fri, Jan 2 269 @Merrimack L 66-71 33%    
  Sun, Jan 4 188 @Quinnipiac L 71-80 21%    
  Fri, Jan 9 332 St. Peter's W 71-66 69%    
  Sun, Jan 11 171 Siena L 67-71 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 353 @Canisius W 68-66 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 336 @Niagara L 67-68 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 188 Quinnipiac L 74-77 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 342 Rider W 74-67 72%    
  Fri, Jan 30 332 @St. Peter's L 68-69 48%    
  Sun, Feb 1 312 Manhattan W 79-75 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 269 Merrimack W 69-68 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 149 @Iona L 73-84 16%    
  Fri, Feb 13 342 @Rider W 71-70 52%    
  Fri, Feb 20 336 Niagara W 71-65 70%    
  Sun, Feb 22 353 Canisius W 71-63 75%    
  Fri, Feb 27 278 @Sacred Heart L 75-79 35%    
  Sun, Mar 1 293 @Fairfield L 72-75 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.4 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.4 1.5 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.8 7.7 10.2 12.0 13.3 12.6 11.2 9.0 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 89.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 74.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 48.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 15.3% 15.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.1% 17.3% 17.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
15-5 2.2% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
14-6 4.0% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7
13-7 6.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 6.3
12-8 9.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.6
11-9 11.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.9
10-10 12.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.5
9-11 13.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.1
8-12 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.9
7-13 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-15 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-16 2.8% 2.8
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 97.6 0.0%