Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#297
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#224
Pace76.1#42
Improvement-2.7#325

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#307
First Shot-4.9#310
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#198
Layup/Dunks-2.4#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#241
Freethrows-3.2#334
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#252
First Shot-5.1#319
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#42
Layups/Dunks-6.3#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#42
Freethrows-4.5#344
Improvement-2.7#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 14.6% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 35.5% 67.5% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 87.7% 74.8%
Conference Champion 6.5% 13.7% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four6.3% 8.1% 6.3%
First Round4.0% 10.4% 3.9%
Second Round0.0% 1.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 37   @ Louisville L 60-72 3%     0 - 1 +2.4 -7.6 +10.8
  Nov 13, 2021 160   @ Tulane W 73-70 15%     1 - 1 +6.6 -1.7 +8.1
  Nov 16, 2021 186   @ Rice L 63-81 18%     1 - 2 -15.9 -18.8 +4.6
  Nov 19, 2021 245   @ South Dakota L 68-71 28%     1 - 3 -4.4 -6.9 +2.5
  Nov 21, 2021 109   @ Nebraska L 59-82 9%     1 - 4 -15.9 -14.8 +1.2
  Nov 28, 2021 327   @ Tennessee St. W 82-80 49%     2 - 4 -5.4 +0.8 -6.3
  Dec 04, 2021 153   @ Akron L 62-79 14%     2 - 5 -13.2 -9.6 -3.5
  Dec 07, 2021 15   @ Kentucky L 61-87 1%    
  Dec 11, 2021 315   SE Louisiana W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 19, 2021 165   @ Kent St. L 65-76 15%    
  Dec 21, 2021 98   @ Dayton L 61-77 7%    
  Jan 03, 2022 176   Texas Southern L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 05, 2022 249   Prairie View L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 301   @ Florida A&M L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 10, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 320   @ Grambling St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 24, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 86-66 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 321   @ Alcorn St. L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 31, 2022 244   @ Jackson St. L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 07, 2022 344   Alabama St. W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 249   @ Prairie View L 75-81 30%    
  Feb 14, 2022 176   @ Texas Southern L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 19, 2022 320   Grambling St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 28, 2022 301   Florida A&M W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 03, 2022 344   @ Alabama St. W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 05, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M W 72-69 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 5.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.7 4.1 0.6 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.6 4.6 0.7 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.3 7.2 10.1 13.0 14.9 14.6 12.4 9.2 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.9% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.5% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.6% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 8.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 36.5% 36.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
16-2 1.3% 32.4% 32.4% 15.8 0.1 0.4 0.9
15-3 3.2% 23.7% 23.7% 15.9 0.1 0.7 2.4
14-4 5.9% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 4.9
13-5 9.2% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2 8.0
12-6 12.4% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 1.1 11.3
11-7 14.6% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.1 13.4
10-8 14.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.7 14.2
9-9 13.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 12.5
8-10 10.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.9
7-11 7.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.1 92.7 0.0%