Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#233
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#222
Pace78.4#14
Improvement+0.3#156

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#306
First Shot-2.2#257
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#323
Layup/Dunks-3.4#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
Freethrows-0.7#240
Improvement+0.4#99

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot-1.1#217
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#33
Layups/Dunks+1.7#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#230
Freethrows-3.7#355
Improvement-0.2#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.8% 43.2% 35.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 95.0% 98.0% 88.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.0% 88.8% 69.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.7% 11.2% 16.2%
First Round34.4% 37.7% 26.7%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 10 - 7
Quad 417 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 76   @ UNLV L 56-66 11%     0 - 1 -0.3 -16.1 +16.7
  Nov 11, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 78-95 3%     0 - 2 +1.5 -0.7 +5.3
  Nov 16, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 54-72 3%     0 - 3 -0.3 -2.0 +0.0
  Nov 18, 2022 224   @ California W 74-66 37%     1 - 3 +7.8 +7.7 +0.7
  Nov 25, 2022 333   Loyola Maryland W 76-58 74%     2 - 3 +7.8 -6.8 +13.0
  Nov 26, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha L 78-88 66%     2 - 4 -18.1 -7.3 -9.8
  Dec 02, 2022 137   @ Louisiana Tech L 59-74 22%     2 - 5 -10.5 -14.2 +4.3
  Dec 13, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 59-79 4%     2 - 6 -3.4 -15.7 +14.5
  Dec 16, 2022 131   @ Youngstown St. L 81-85 21%     2 - 7 +0.9 -1.3 +2.6
  Dec 18, 2022 71   @ UAB L 66-92 10%     2 - 8 -15.5 -12.1 +0.4
  Dec 21, 2022 273   @ SE Louisiana L 62-80 47%     2 - 9 -21.0 -15.1 -6.0
  Jan 02, 2023 314   @ Texas Southern W 77-76 OT 57%     3 - 9 1 - 0 -4.5 -5.8 +1.2
  Jan 04, 2023 287   @ Prairie View W 66-62 51%     4 - 9 2 - 0 +0.0 -8.6 +8.4
  Jan 07, 2023 358   Florida A&M W 84-66 91%     5 - 9 3 - 0 -0.3 +8.2 -8.1
  Jan 09, 2023 354   Bethune-Cookman W 102-75 89%     6 - 9 4 - 0 +10.2 +6.2 +0.4
  Jan 14, 2023 240   Grambling St. W 81-73 62%     7 - 9 5 - 0 +1.2 -1.6 +2.0
  Jan 21, 2023 331   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 55-62 64%     7 - 10 5 - 1 -14.4 -16.5 +1.9
  Jan 23, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 84-70 84%     8 - 10 6 - 1 -0.5 +3.7 -4.6
  Jan 28, 2023 289   Alcorn St. W 80-68 71%     9 - 10 7 - 1 +2.5 -1.4 +3.2
  Jan 30, 2023 327   Jackson St. W 73-62 79%     10 - 10 8 - 1 -1.2 -2.3 +1.5
  Feb 04, 2023 347   @ Alabama A&M W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 06, 2023 353   @ Alabama St. W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 287   Prairie View W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 13, 2023 314   Texas Southern W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 240   Grambling St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 354   Bethune-Cookman W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 27, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M W 69-60 79%    
  Mar 02, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 77-65 88%    
  Mar 04, 2023 347   Alabama A&M W 78-67 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 4.0 16.2 28.4 24.5 9.7 83.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.8 4.7 1.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.3 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 10.4 21.2 29.3 24.5 9.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 9.7    9.7
16-2 100.0% 24.5    23.6 0.8
15-3 96.8% 28.4    22.5 5.6 0.3
14-4 76.5% 16.2    8.5 6.4 1.3 0.0
13-5 38.2% 4.0    1.0 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 83.0% 83.0 65.3 14.8 2.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 9.7% 59.8% 59.8% 14.9 0.0 1.2 3.8 0.8 3.9
16-2 24.5% 50.1% 50.1% 15.6 0.0 0.4 4.8 7.1 12.2
15-3 29.3% 41.4% 41.4% 15.8 0.1 2.6 9.4 17.2
14-4 21.2% 33.3% 33.3% 15.9 0.0 0.9 6.1 14.1
13-5 10.4% 26.1% 26.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6 7.7
12-6 3.8% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.7 3.1
11-7 1.0% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.2 0.8
10-8 0.2% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 1.6 12.1 27.0 59.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 59.8% 14.9 0.5 12.1 38.9 8.3