Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#222
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#270
Pace77.4#27
Improvement-0.6#214

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#248
First Shot-4.0#298
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#106
Layup/Dunks-1.1#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#220
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement-1.2#263

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot-2.1#242
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#84
Layups/Dunks+3.4#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#335
Freethrows-1.8#300
Improvement+0.6#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 32.6% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 14.9 15.7
.500 or above 48.2% 76.4% 48.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 94.4% 92.5%
Conference Champion 46.0% 60.1% 45.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four11.7% 5.6% 11.7%
First Round18.8% 28.7% 18.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 414 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 23 @Arkansas L 77-109 3%     0 - 1 -13.8 +0.7 -10.1
  Wed, Nov 5 105 @Marquette L 82-100 15%     0 - 2 -10.6 +4.5 -13.1
  Tue, Nov 18 48 @Washington L 93-99 2OT 6%     0 - 3 +7.8 +4.4 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 21 197 @San Jose St. L 66-80 33%     0 - 4 -13.3 -7.6 -5.8
  Sat, Nov 29 273 @Northwestern St. W 75-73 47%     1 - 4 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8
  Mon, Dec 8 41 @Texas L 69-95 5%     1 - 5 -10.8 +0.2 -10.5
  Wed, Dec 10 255 @Texas St. L 83-86 44%     1 - 6 -5.2 +0.9 -5.8
  Tue, Dec 16 134 @California Baptist L 67-75 21%     1 - 7 -3.3 -2.6 -0.7
  Sun, Dec 21 27 @Baylor L 67-111 3%     1 - 8 -26.2 -0.8 -25.4
  Mon, Dec 29 10 @Illinois L 66-93 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 337 @Alcorn St. W 81-77 65%    
  Sat, Jan 3 327 Texas Southern W 83-74 80%    
  Mon, Jan 5 320 Prairie View W 85-76 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 341 @Florida A&M W 79-74 67%    
  Mon, Jan 12 269 @Bethune-Cookman L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 245 @Grambling St. L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-75 86%    
  Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-64 98%    
  Sat, Jan 31 337 @Alcorn St. W 81-77 64%    
  Mon, Feb 2 324 @Jackson St. W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 293 Alabama A&M W 76-70 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 281 Alabama St. W 81-75 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 320 @Prairie View W 82-79 60%    
  Mon, Feb 16 327 @Texas Southern W 80-77 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 245 Grambling St. W 76-72 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 341 Florida A&M W 82-71 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 269 Bethune-Cookman W 80-75 67%    
  Tue, Mar 3 281 @Alabama St. L 78-79 48%    
  Thu, Mar 5 293 @Alabama A&M W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.2 11.0 10.8 7.9 4.6 1.8 45.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.2 6.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.3 0.9 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.8 8.4 11.0 13.6 14.5 13.5 11.3 7.9 4.6 1.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 99.9% 4.6    4.6 0.0
16-2 99.6% 7.9    7.7 0.2
15-3 95.5% 10.8    9.4 1.4 0.0
14-4 81.2% 11.0    7.4 3.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 49.3% 7.2    2.7 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.5% 2.3    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
11-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.6% 45.6 33.9 8.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 48.9% 48.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9
17-1 4.6% 43.8% 43.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 2.6
16-2 7.9% 38.9% 38.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 4.8
15-3 11.3% 36.0% 36.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 7.2
14-4 13.5% 29.4% 29.4% 15.8 0.0 0.6 3.4 9.5
13-5 14.5% 24.0% 24.0% 15.9 0.3 3.2 11.0
12-6 13.6% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6 11.1
11-7 11.0% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 1.9 9.2
10-8 8.4% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 1.1 7.3
9-9 5.8% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.6 5.2
8-10 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 3.5
7-11 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.9 17.7 76.2 0.0%