Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#234
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#275
Pace70.3#149
Improvement+2.7#30

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#306
First Shot-0.7#193
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#347
Layup/Dunks+4.1#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#230
Freethrows-1.5#265
Improvement+0.9#111

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#148
First Shot+6.2#22
After Offensive Rebounds-5.4#364
Layups/Dunks+0.5#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows+2.8#36
Improvement+1.8#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 27.4% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 62.4% 76.8% 53.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 96.2% 92.0%
Conference Champion 32.0% 38.4% 28.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.2% 8.8% 11.0%
First Round18.9% 23.9% 15.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 31 - 32 - 7
Quad 414 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   @ South Dakota L 79-93 37%     0 - 1 -14.5 -7.8 -5.1
  Nov 07, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 74-89 6%     0 - 2 -1.7 +3.0 -4.1
  Nov 13, 2024 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 73%     0 - 3 -12.3 -9.8 -2.5
  Nov 20, 2024 30   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 4%     0 - 4 -1.0 -6.3 +4.1
  Nov 30, 2024 103   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 14%     1 - 4 +10.5 +3.3 +7.2
  Dec 07, 2024 225   @ Tulsa L 69-72 37%    
  Dec 17, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 62-82 3%    
  Dec 20, 2024 181   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 22, 2024 106   @ USC L 65-76 16%    
  Dec 30, 2024 44   @ Nebraska L 62-80 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 294   @ Texas Southern L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 06, 2025 357   @ Prairie View W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 353   Florida A&M W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 13, 2025 288   Bethune-Cookman W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 226   Grambling St. W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-72 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-57 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 352   Alcorn St. W 74-62 85%    
  Feb 03, 2025 315   Jackson St. W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 10, 2025 285   @ Alabama St. L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 357   Prairie View W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 17, 2025 294   Texas Southern W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 226   @ Grambling St. L 66-69 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 288   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 03, 2025 353   @ Florida A&M W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 06, 2025 285   Alabama St. W 74-68 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 79-65 88%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.6 9.5 8.1 4.1 1.3 32.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.4 7.0 2.6 0.3 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 5.9 4.5 1.0 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.5 0.6 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.2 5.4 8.4 11.3 13.3 14.6 14.6 12.1 8.4 4.1 1.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.1
16-2 96.1% 8.1    7.0 1.1 0.0
15-3 78.3% 9.5    6.3 3.0 0.2
14-4 45.3% 6.6    2.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.2% 2.1    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 21.8 7.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 56.9% 56.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6
17-1 4.1% 51.8% 51.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 2.0
16-2 8.4% 44.0% 44.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 4.7
15-3 12.1% 36.2% 36.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 7.8
14-4 14.6% 28.3% 28.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 10.4
13-5 14.6% 22.2% 22.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.0 11.4
12-6 13.3% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 11.0
11-7 11.3% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4 9.9
10-8 8.4% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.6
9-9 5.4% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.4 5.0
8-10 3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-11 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 5.1 15.6 76.6 0.0%