Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-21.2#364
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#210
Pace62.9#330
Improvement+0.4#159

Offense
Total Offense-13.3#364
First Shot-12.0#363
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#250
Layup/Dunks-4.0#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.5#364
Freethrows-2.2#294
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-8.0#358
First Shot-7.4#359
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#225
Layups/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#248
Freethrows-1.8#290
Improvement+0.3#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 0.0% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.2% 42.4% 61.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 30 - 20 - 11
Quad 43 - 143 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 44-83 0.1%    0 - 1 -17.8 -21.7 +6.0
  Nov 14, 2024 63   @ Missouri L 39-111 1%     0 - 2 -59.9 -29.0 -33.1
  Nov 16, 2024 34   @ Texas L 43-89 0.3%    0 - 3 -30.4 -17.1 -17.5
  Nov 19, 2024 59   @ Kansas St. L 56-74 1%     0 - 4 -5.6 -7.1 +0.5
  Nov 23, 2024 49   @ BYU L 43-87 0.5%    0 - 5 -30.7 -20.2 -15.9
  Nov 26, 2024 60   @ Utah L 48-94 1%     0 - 6 -33.7 -15.9 -21.0
  Nov 29, 2024 126   @ UC Santa Barbara L 48-81 2%     0 - 7 -27.9 -14.6 -20.1
  Dec 07, 2024 70   @ Liberty L 45-77 0.1%   
  Dec 18, 2024 77   @ North Texas L 42-73 0.1%   
  Dec 21, 2024 225   @ Tulsa L 56-77 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 47   @ LSU L 51-86 0.1%   
  Jan 04, 2025 285   @ Alabama St. L 58-76 5%    
  Jan 06, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 11, 2025 357   Prairie View L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 13, 2025 294   Texas Southern L 60-71 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 288   @ Bethune-Cookman L 57-75 5%    
  Jan 20, 2025 353   @ Florida A&M L 59-70 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 226   Grambling St. L 56-71 9%    
  Jan 27, 2025 234   Southern L 57-71 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 315   @ Jackson St. L 57-73 8%    
  Feb 10, 2025 352   @ Alcorn St. L 58-70 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 360   Alabama A&M L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 17, 2025 285   Alabama St. L 61-73 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 294   @ Texas Southern L 57-74 6%    
  Feb 24, 2025 357   @ Prairie View L 68-78 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 352   Alcorn St. L 61-67 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 315   Jackson St. L 60-70 20%    
Projected Record 3 - 26 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.2 2.2 0.2 12.9 10th
11th 0.3 3.1 8.3 8.1 3.0 0.4 23.1 11th
12th 5.3 13.3 15.7 9.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 47.4 12th
Total 5.3 13.5 18.8 19.0 16.0 11.5 7.8 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.4% 0.4
9-9 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
8-10 2.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-11 4.2% 4.2
6-12 7.8% 7.8
5-13 11.5% 11.5
4-14 16.0% 16.0
3-15 19.0% 19.0
2-16 18.8% 18.8
1-17 13.5% 13.5
0-18 5.3% 5.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.2%