Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-24.8#358
Expected Predictive Rating-12.1#323
Pace77.3#31
Improvement+0.5#141

Offense
Total Offense-12.6#358
First Shot-10.0#355
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#313
Layup/Dunks-5.9#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#237
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement-0.2#209

Defense
Total Defense-12.3#358
First Shot-6.3#335
After Offensive Rebounds-6.0#356
Layups/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#322
Freethrows-1.2#256
Improvement+0.7#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 77.2% 68.2% 77.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 42 - 182 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 79   @ St. John's L 61-119 0.5%    0 - 1 -48.5 -18.3 -20.7
  Nov 13, 2021 219   @ California Baptist L 66-95 2%     0 - 2 -28.3 -15.7 -9.3
  Nov 26, 2021 61   @ Mississippi L 58-73 0.4%    0 - 3 -4.3 +0.7 -6.8
  Nov 29, 2021 86   @ Vanderbilt L 36-75 1%     0 - 4 -30.0 -32.0 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2021 311   @ North Alabama L 58-72 5%     0 - 5 -19.7 -17.0 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2021 123   @ Grand Canyon L 44-91 1%     0 - 6 -41.0 -25.8 -15.4
  Dec 09, 2021 230   Nicholls St. L 68-86 4%    
  Dec 11, 2021 228   Arkansas St. L 65-84 4%    
  Dec 18, 2021 230   @ Nicholls St. L 65-89 1%    
  Dec 22, 2021 46   @ UAB L 55-93 0.0%   
  Dec 29, 2021 247   @ South Florida L 52-75 1%    
  Jan 03, 2022 344   Alabama St. L 72-80 22%    
  Jan 05, 2022 341   Alabama A&M L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 08, 2022 249   @ Prairie View L 68-91 2%    
  Jan 10, 2022 176   @ Texas Southern L 60-87 1%    
  Jan 15, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 17, 2022 301   Florida A&M L 64-78 11%    
  Jan 22, 2022 320   @ Grambling St. L 65-83 5%    
  Jan 24, 2022 297   @ Southern L 66-86 3%    
  Jan 29, 2022 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 244   Jackson St. L 60-77 6%    
  Feb 07, 2022 321   Alcorn St. L 67-79 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M L 65-80 10%    
  Feb 14, 2022 344   @ Alabama St. L 69-83 10%    
  Feb 19, 2022 249   Prairie View L 71-88 6%    
  Feb 21, 2022 176   Texas Southern L 63-84 3%    
  Feb 26, 2022 357   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 03, 2022 321   @ Alcorn St. L 64-82 6%    
  Mar 05, 2022 244   @ Jackson St. L 57-80 2%    
Projected Record 2 - 27 2 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 1.3 6.8 9.2 5.1 1.2 0.1 23.7 11th
12th 15.1 24.0 17.4 6.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 64.1 12th
Total 15.1 25.3 24.3 17.1 9.9 4.9 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.3% 0.3
7-11 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 4.9% 4.9
4-14 9.9% 9.9
3-15 17.1% 17.1
2-16 24.3% 24.3
1-17 25.3% 25.3
0-18 15.1% 15.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 14.1%