Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -23.9 365
Expected Predictive Rating -29.3 365
Pace 67.6 211
Improvement -0.6 206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F 365 F F+ F+ D+ F
Defense F 362 F+ F C F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 357 D- 50% 343 -7.7 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 70% 1 C 37% 199 +7.3 1
Three Pointers 30% 351 F 27% 363 -8.4 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -3.1 365 D- -5.8 348
1st FG Attempt F 0.84 360
Second Chance D- 23.2% 345 D- 0.90 332 F+ 0.21 353
Turnovers F+ 20.7% 348
Freethrows D+ 0.27 277 C- 71% 230 D+ 0.19 284
Total Offense F -14.5 365

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 53% 104 C- 12.2% 255
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 39% 27 B 3.3% 60
Three Pointers D- 75% 336 F 2.2% 352
Total C- 52% 255 C 5.5% 183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 264 D- 64% 331 +0.7 206
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 337 D 42% 301 -1.5 68
Three Pointers 49% 14 D- 38% 342 +7.2 361
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 263 F+ +5.7 354
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 351
Second Chance F 38.0% 362 F 1.25 364 F 0.48 365
Turnovers C 16.9% 182
Freethrows F 0.40 358 D 75% 327 F 0.30 360
Total Defense F -9.4 362

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 63% 361 C- 9.7% 221
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 41% 348 D+ 3.5% 265
Three Pointers D- 90% 332 D 0.2% 324
Total F 71% 362 D 4.1% 303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 312 16.5 44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 208 0.23 344
Improvement -0.6 #218 +0.0 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 365 365 365
Conference Record 0 - 18 0 - 18 1 - 17
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 10 - 9
Quad 40 - 220 - 31


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 123 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -45 F -26 F D- F F -10 D F D
 Fri, Nov 7 124 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  3% 0 - 2 F -42 F -21 F F F F -16 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 117 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0% 0 - 3 F -26 F+ -10 D- D- B F -18 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 198 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 3% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -8 D- -6 C+ F C C- -2 C B- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 321 Manhattan L 73 - 80 10% -5  7% 0 - 5 F+ -17 D+ -4 D+ A+ F F -14 F F A
 Sat, Nov 22 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 8% -10  20% 0 - 6 F -24 F -13 D- F B- F -10 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 35 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -20  0% 0 - 7 F -19 C -0 A+ C F F -12 D F C
 Wed, Dec 3 353 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 12% -4  13% 0 - 8 F -25 F -26 F F C C -1 D C B-
 Mon, Dec 8 92 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 1% -32  0% 0 - 9 F -50 F -26 F F F F -19 F F B-
 Tue, Dec 16 223 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 6% -9  4% 0 - 10 F -30 F -16 C+ D F F -13 F D B-
 Fri, Dec 19 86 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -29  0% 0 - 11 F -37 F -25 F F F F+ -9 D+ F+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 55 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -20  0% 0 - 12 F -22 D -5 F B- A- F -24 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 51 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  18% 0 - 13 D -10 B +6 B+ C- C F -20 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 13% -9  1% 0 - 14 0 - 1 F -32 F -13 D F F F -18 F D+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 307 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 13% -10  11% 0 - 15 0 - 2 F -32 F -30 F F+ F C- -2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 8% +2  61% 0 - 16 0 - 3 D -9 F -11 D D- F C+ +1 D A C
 Mon, Jan 12 297 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 5% -18  0% 0 - 17 0 - 4 F -38 F -25 F C+ F F -13 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 241 Bethune-Cookman L 63 - 79 7% -7  1% 0 - 18 0 - 5 F -23 F -11 F A- A+ F -14 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 333 Florida A&M L 48 - 62 18% -13  0% 0 - 19 0 - 6 F -28 F -28 F F B- C- -2 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 267 @Southern L 69 - 80 4% -5  3% 0 - 20 0 - 7 D- -14 D- -6 D- D D+ D- -8 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70 - 78 17% -7  6% 0 - 21 0 - 8 F -22 F -14 D F F D- -8 C D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 332 Jackson St. L 81 - 97 18% -6  26% 0 - 22 0 - 9 F -30 F+ -8 D+ F B F -21 C- F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 349 Alcorn St. L 66 - 74 23% -12  0% 0 - 23 0 - 10 F -24 D -5 F C- C- F -21 F C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 307 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 5% -1  44% 0 - 24 0 - 11 D- -13 D- -6 F+ D- D+ D- -7 D- F D+
 Mon, Feb 16 309 @Alabama St. L 55 - 92 6% -15  21% 0 - 25 0 - 12 F -43 F -23 F F B+ F -18 B F A-
 Thu, Feb 19 334 Prairie View L 62 - 72 18% -6  2% 0 - 26 0 - 13 F -24 F -18 F F+ B D- -7 B F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 297 Texas Southern L 66 - 79 11%
 Mon, Feb 23 293 @Grambling St. L 57 - 76 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 328 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 82 7%
 Tue, Mar 3 349 @Alcorn St. L 64 - 78 10%
 Thu, Mar 5 332 @Jackson St. L 67 - 83 7%
Totals 0 - 31 0 - 17 -24 F -15 D D- F F -9 F C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F D- C F D- 29% 70% 30% F F D- D- F+ F+ D+ C- D+ F D- D D- F+ 36% 15% 49% D+ F+ F F F C F D F
0.88 50% 37% 27% -6 -3 0.84 23% 0.9 .21 21% .27 71% .19 1.22 64% 42% 38% +6 +1 1.15 38% 1.3 .48 17% .40 75% .21
Nov
3		 UAB F F F F F 26% 32% 42% F F F A+ D- F A A+ A+ F F A- B- D- 35% 27% 38% B D D+ F F D F A F
0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31 1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30
Nov
7		 Murray St. F D F F F 29% 43% 29% F F B- F F F A A+ A+ F F A+ F F 36% 6% 58% F+ F F A+ A+ F C- A C+
0.77 50% 29% 29% -9 -4 0.78 36% 0.5 .17 30% .39 86% .33 1.39 83% 25% 41% +14 +2 1.33 41% 0.5 .20 6% .35 68% .23
Nov
12		 Hawaii F+ C F C+ C- 20% 52% 28% F D- D F D- B D B+ D+ F F A+ F F 40% 13% 47% C- F F C- F D F D F
0.84 55% 29% 33% -6 -5 0.80 23% 0.8 .18 14% .26 73% .19 1.32 74% 17% 45% +12 +1 1.28 48% 1.1 .52 17% .52 76% .40
Nov
14		 Utah Tech D- A+ B F B 31% 29% 41% F C+ F F F C F A+ F C- F D- A+ C- 32% 17% 51% C+ C D- A+ B- D+ F B- F
1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14 1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30
Nov
15		 Manhattan D+ D- A+ F C 27% 43% 31% F D+ C- A+ A+ F D+ A+ B F F F D F 27% 12% 61% D F F D+ F A F D+ F
1.14 54% 62% 27% +6 -4 1.06 35% 1.8 .61 20% .21 100% .21 1.25 73% 60% 36% +8 0 1.20 48% 1.2 .56 20% .62 81% .51
Nov
22		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D A F C- 35% 46% 19% F D- F F F B- A F B- F D+ B A C+ 32% 25% 43% D- C F+ F F F F B+ F
0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29 1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
25		 Texas A&M C B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D+ A+ A F C F B+ C+ B+ F B F+ F D 39% 4% 58% C- D D+ F F C F F F
0.97 65% 50% 53% +16 -1 1.33 40% 0.7 .27 36% .34 74% .25 1.39 55% 50% 45% +9 +2 1.25 37% 1.2 .46 15% .68 84% .57
Dec
3		 Louisiana Monroe F F F F F 27% 43% 29% F F F F F C C- C C- C F A+ B D 36% 17% 48% D+ D C C C B- F B- F
0.80 50% 32% 13% -14 -4 0.67 26% 0.8 .21 15% .24 69% .16 1.02 80% 0% 30% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .24 18% .55 69% .38
Dec
8		 Kansas St. F F F D- F 27% 46% 27% F F D- F F F C- A+ B- F D+ F F F 42% 7% 51% D- F F F F B- C F D+
0.64 36% 25% 29% -14 -4 0.65 27% 0.6 .16 25% .28 81% .23 1.42 65% 50% 54% +19 +2 1.44 40% 1.4 .57 18% .26 81% .21
Dec
16		 Tarleton St. F B- A+ D- C+ 43% 27% 30% D C+ F A+ D F F F+ F F D A F F 51% 14% 35% F F D D D B- D F F
0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16 1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34
Dec
19		 Florida St. F A D F F 24% 37% 39% F F D+ F F F A+ F B+ F+ F B B- D+ 33% 11% 56% C+ D+ F C F+ C F+ F+ F
0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24 1.29 74% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29
Dec
22		 West Virginia D C+ F+ F D- 32% 55% 14% F F A- D+ B- A- B A+ A+ F C B+ F F 46% 6% 48% F F F F F F C- F D-
0.87 57% 25% 17% -11 -5 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 15% .28 100% .28 1.47 59% 33% 48% +10 +2 1.27 41% 1.5 .63 10% .34 78% .27
Dec
29		 Oklahoma B F B+ A+ A- 33% 35% 33% D- B+ D B C- C B- A B+ F F F F F 23% 15% 62% B- F F F F C- C C- C-
1.12 40% 44% 53% +6 -2 1.09 25% 1.1 .29 16% .31 81% .25 1.52 73% 71% 45% +18 0 1.38 46% 1.5 .69 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
3		 Alabama St. F B+ F B D+ 37% 33% 30% F D F D F F A B+ A+ F F F F+ F 39% 22% 39% C- F F B- D+ B+ F F F
0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36 1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49
Jan
5		 Alabama A&M F F C F F 30% 36% 34% F F F C+ F+ F C+ D- C- C- A- A+ C B+ 43% 14% 43% F B- F D+ F A+ F F F
0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23 1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47
Jan
10		 Prairie View F F A C D+ 35% 37% 29% F D C+ F D- F C- F D- C+ A- F+ F+ F+ 24% 40% 36% A D B+ A+ A C F A+ F
0.97 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .32 25% .36 63% .23 0.99 45% 44% 38% +1 -3 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 15% .60 61% .37
Jan
12		 Texas Southern F F F D- F 47% 31% 22% F+ F C- B+ C+ F D- F F F C A+ F F 31% 10% 60% F F D- F F A- A- D- B
0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12 1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Bethune-Cookman F F B+ F F 35% 27% 39% F F F A+ A- A+ B+ F C F D+ F F F 33% 20% 48% C+ F F F F B+ D B+ C-
0.95 35% 46% 26% -10 -1 0.80 14% 3.5 .48 9% .38 61% .23 1.19 62% 50% 53% +17 0 1.35 38% 1.6 .62 21% .36 63% .23
Jan
19		 Florida A&M F F C- F F 15% 45% 40% F F F F F B- F+ F+ F C- D+ C+ B+ C 33% 20% 47% D+ C F F F A+ D F F
0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19 0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26
Jan
28		 Southern D- F+ A C- C- 18% 41% 41% F D- C+ F D D+ F F F D- F F A+ D- 27% 49% 24% A+ C- C+ F F C+ F F F
1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09 1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F C A F C 38% 42% 20% F D F A+ F F A+ B A+ D- C- B+ F D+ 37% 37% 26% A- C C F D D- F B F
0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39 1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40
Feb
7		 Jackson St. F+ D+ A C+ C 30% 39% 30% F D+ F F F B B- F+ C F A+ F C+ C+ 30% 6% 64% F C- F F F C+ F F+ F
1.07 59% 45% 35% +4 -3 1.04 26% 0.8 .21 13% .37 67% .24 1.28 40% 67% 31% -6 +1 0.92 53% 1.6 .84 20% .58 83% .48
Feb
9		 Alcorn St. D F A+ F D- 28% 42% 30% F F B- D- C- C- A+ F C+ F F A+ F F 36% 14% 50% F F A+ F C+ F F C- F
1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25 1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26
Feb
14		 Alabama A&M D- F F+ A+ D- 41% 39% 20% F F+ D- D+ D- D+ A- C B+ D- B- F B- D- 41% 23% 36% D D- D F F D+ F C+ F
1.02 47% 28% 56% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .40 71% .28 1.13 50% 60% 31% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.5 .41 16% .54 72% .39
Feb
16		 Alabama St. F F+ F C- F 31% 40% 29% F F F F F B+ C F D- F A+ B- B- A 51% 7% 42% F B F F F A- F F F
0.76 50% 19% 33% -10 -3 0.75 14% 0.7 .10 15% .36 64% .23 1.27 39% 33% 32% -12 +3 0.84 50% 1.7 .86 22% .64 86% .55
Feb
19		 Prairie View F F A- F F 28% 38% 34% F F F A+ F+ B D A+ B- D- A+ F A+ B+ 39% 30% 30% D+ B F F F A- F A F
0.91 43% 47% 12% -12 -3 0.72 20% 1.4 .29 16% .33 89% .30 1.06 39% 50% 21% -10 -1 0.80 42% 1.4 .58 19% .49 67% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 75.8 21.3 2.7 0.1 0.0 100.0 12th
Total 75.8 21.3 2.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 21.3% 21.3
0-18 75.8% 75.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 67.8%