North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #289
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #278
Pace 66.6 #253
Improvement -3.4 #335

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #315 F D- C+ C C+
Defense #231 C B D D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 0.90 #364 -2.9 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.59 #343 -1.8 #261
Three Pointers 37% #273 0.90 #303 -4.3 #310
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #361 -9.0 #361
Freethrows 15.6 #276 65% #337 10.2 #311
Second Chance 30.6% #189 1.13 #96 0.34 #129
Turnovers 16.5% #173
Total Offense -5.4 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.20 #228 -1.0 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #280 0.81 #264 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 44% #102 0.97 #145 -0.6 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #210 -0.9 #211
Freethrows 15.0 #66 70% #84 10.5 #315
Second Chance 34.9% #318 1.08 #225 0.38 #305
Turnovers 14.6% #299
Total Defense -1.8 #231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #142 1.0% #263
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -18.3% #362 0.7% #196
Possession Length 18.3 #283 16.6 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #249 0.22 #313
Improvement -4.6 #360 +1.2 #102

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.4% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 11.5% 20.5% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 48.1% 21.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 4.8% 16.2%
First Four1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
First Round2.4% 3.7% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 48 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 66 @Mississippi St. L 62-86 5%     -4.7   0 - 1 -12.5 -6.9 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 287 Northwestern St. W 87-83 OT 61%     4.5   1 - 1 -6.1 +2.6 -8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 129 East Tennessee St. L 74-78 28%     7.5   1 - 2 -5.1 +1.8 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 17 39 @Clemson L 61-81 3%     -14.2   1 - 3 -4.2 +4.1 -10.6
  Sat, Nov 22 265 @Chattanooga L 57-71 34%     -5.6   1 - 4 -16.9 -9.3 -9.9
  Mon, Dec 1 215 @Jacksonville St. W 73-66 25%     -2.4   2 - 4 +6.9 +5.5 +1.8
  Wed, Dec 3 103 @San Francisco W 65-63 9%     -3.7   3 - 4 +10.0 +1.8 +8.4
  Mon, Dec 15 298 @Alabama A&M L 60-68 41%     0.0   3 - 5 -12.8 -10.4 -3.0
  Fri, Dec 19 125 @Loyola Marymount L 57-91 12%     -22.0   3 - 6 -28.7 -10.1 -19.1
  Thu, Jan 1 350 Stetson L 67-70 78%     -0.1   3 - 7 0 - 1 -18.4 -9.5 -9.1
  Sat, Jan 3 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 55-72 38%     -8.1   3 - 8 0 - 2 -21.1 -21.1 -0.4
  Thu, Jan 8 264 @Eastern Kentucky L 71-75 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 @Bellarmine L 72-75 39%    
  Thu, Jan 15 346 North Florida W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 Jacksonville W 69-64 67%    
  Wed, Jan 21 225 @Queens L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 252 Central Arkansas W 72-71 55%    
  Thu, Jan 29 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 350 @Stetson W 72-70 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 252 @Central Arkansas L 69-74 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 203 @Austin Peay L 66-74 24%    
  Wed, Feb 11 307 West Georgia W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 264 Eastern Kentucky W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 225 Queens L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 160 @Lipscomb L 66-76 18%    
  Wed, Feb 25 292 Bellarmine W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 307 @West Georgia L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.6 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.8 0.9 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.3 3.3 5.9 1.6 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 6.5 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.5 6.3 4.2 0.4 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.6 4.8 0.8 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.9 5.0 1.1 0.1 12.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.8 1.3 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.5 7.0 11.2 14.8 15.4 15.2 12.8 8.7 5.0 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 62.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.0% 11.0% 11.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-6 2.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6
11-7 5.0% 9.6% 9.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.5
10-8 8.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.1 0.5 8.1
9-9 12.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.1
8-10 15.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 14.8
7-11 15.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 15.2
6-12 14.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.6
5-13 11.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.2
4-14 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 96.8 0.0%