North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#291
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#223
Pace69.5#136
Improvement+1.4#29

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#204
First Shot+0.2#174
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#266
Layup/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#257
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement+1.0#39

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#333
First Shot-5.9#339
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#180
Layups/Dunks-1.3#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#322
Freethrows-1.4#284
Improvement+0.4#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 30.7% 56.0% 23.9%
.500 or above in Conference 30.7% 56.0% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 31 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 347   @ Alabama A&M W 84-76 60%     1 - 0 -1.4 +6.6 -8.2
  Nov 18, 2022 361   @ Mississippi Valley L 68-76 76%     1 - 1 -22.5 -11.0 -11.3
  Nov 22, 2022 342   Hampton W 75-74 68%     2 - 1 -10.7 -11.5 +0.7
  Nov 23, 2022 101   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-89 10%     2 - 2 -10.7 +4.7 -15.9
  Nov 26, 2022 172   @ Georgia Tech L 61-80 18%     2 - 3 -16.3 -7.0 -9.8
  Nov 30, 2022 38   @ Memphis L 68-87 4%     2 - 4 -4.8 +1.4 -6.0
  Dec 03, 2022 278   @ Morehead St. W 81-75 37%     3 - 4 +2.6 +2.3 +0.0
  Dec 07, 2022 353   Alabama St. W 71-63 81%     4 - 4 -8.1 -6.4 -1.5
  Dec 15, 2022 61   @ Colorado L 60-84 5%     4 - 5 -12.7 -7.5 -3.7
  Dec 20, 2022 95   @ Mississippi W 66-65 9%     5 - 5 +8.7 -2.7 +11.5
  Dec 30, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville St. W 66-62 33%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +1.7 -3.1 +5.1
  Jan 02, 2023 253   Bellarmine L 65-69 52%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -11.5 -1.9 -10.3
  Jan 05, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 62-86 21%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -22.5 -10.2 -12.4
  Jan 07, 2023 199   Stetson L 85-95 OT 40%     6 - 8 1 - 3 -14.2 +0.5 -14.0
  Jan 12, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 54-72 6%     6 - 9 1 - 4 -7.1 -9.8 +1.8
  Jan 14, 2023 221   @ Queens L 78-107 26%     6 - 10 1 - 5 -29.0 -2.9 -24.8
  Jan 18, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 78-73 55%     7 - 10 2 - 5 -3.2 -2.3 -1.1
  Jan 21, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 82-66 74%     8 - 10 3 - 5 +2.3 +1.8 +0.4
  Jan 26, 2023 197   Jacksonville W 80-62 39%     9 - 10 4 - 5 +13.9 +17.7 -1.1
  Jan 28, 2023 282   North Florida W 91-78 59%     10 - 10 5 - 5 +3.7 +16.8 -12.1
  Feb 02, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 70-78 21%    
  Feb 04, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 09, 2023 315   Austin Peay W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 11, 2023 194   Lipscomb L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 18, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-82 21%    
  Feb 22, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 24, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 72-71 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 4.1 0.4 6.1 5th
6th 0.6 6.4 2.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 4.5 7.6 0.3 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 11.0 2.8 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.4 8.5 9.1 0.4 18.3 9th
10th 0.1 4.5 12.1 2.2 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 0.8 6.0 3.1 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 1.7 2.3 0.2 4.1 12th
13th 0.6 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 3.2 13.3 25.4 27.4 18.9 8.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.5
10-8 8.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.8
9-9 18.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 18.9
8-10 27.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 27.3
7-11 25.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.4
6-12 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 3.2% 3.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%