North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#214
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#230
Pace69.0#181
Improvement-2.5#319

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-0.1#179
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#226
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
Freethrows-5.0#356
Improvement-2.5#341

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#228
First Shot-3.2#281
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#81
Layups/Dunks-3.9#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+0.0#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 10.5% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 67.6% 82.6% 61.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 81.8% 72.7%
Conference Champion 8.0% 10.6% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 1.4%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round7.6% 10.3% 6.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 414 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 286   @ Air Force W 73-57 53%     1 - 0 +12.5 +6.3 +8.1
  Nov 11, 2024 328   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 82%     2 - 0 +5.6 +8.9 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 121   Samford L 96-97 OT 42%     2 - 1 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1
  Nov 18, 2024 3   @ Auburn L 69-102 2%     2 - 2 -9.6 -0.1 -7.7
  Nov 23, 2024 332   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 75%     3 - 2 +2.2 +4.3 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 297   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 56%     3 - 3 -17.1 -9.8 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2024 142   @ Wofford L 54-74 26%     3 - 4 -16.0 -17.5 +0.7
  Dec 04, 2024 330   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 83%     4 - 4 +10.2 +7.7 +4.1
  Dec 11, 2024 159   @ East Carolina L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 19, 2024 276   Charleston Southern W 76-69 74%    
  Dec 22, 2024 181   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 02, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 78-68 83%    
  Jan 04, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 09, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 329   @ Stetson W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 77-82 34%    
  Jan 23, 2025 105   Lipscomb L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 290   @ Queens W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 05, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 182   North Florida W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   Jacksonville W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 18, 2025 349   West Georgia W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 20, 2025 105   @ Lipscomb L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 24, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 290   Queens W 80-73 73%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.2 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.8 9.9 12.5 14.3 14.8 12.6 9.6 6.3 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.1% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 94.3% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 74.3% 2.5    1.5 0.9 0.1
14-4 37.8% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 11.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.3% 56.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 28.3% 28.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.4% 30.4% 30.4% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.4% 23.5% 23.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6
14-4 6.3% 17.7% 17.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 5.2
13-5 9.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 8.2
12-6 12.6% 10.7% 10.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 11.2
11-7 14.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 13.6
10-8 14.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 13.5
9-9 12.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.0
8-10 9.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
7-11 6.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
6-12 4.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 2.6 92.0 0.0%