North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.9 #331
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 #322
Pace 65.7 #260
Improvement -5.0 #348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #301 D- C C- C- C+
Defense #329 D+ F+ D C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #49 1.00 #342 -0.5 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.61 #348 -1.7 #272
Three Pointers 36% #280 0.91 #316 -4.4 #320
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #346 -6.5 #346
Freethrows 0.31 #163 67% #339 0.21 #229
Second Chance 29.1% #223 1.10 #85 0.32 #156
Turnovers 17.6% #219
Total Offense -5.1 #301

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.20 #234 -2.2 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.83 #297 +1.0 #111
Three Pointers 43% #122 1.04 #213 -1.3 #244
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #264 -2.5 #265
Freethrows 0.28 #92 75% #327 0.21 #135
Second Chance 36.2% #342 1.15 #327 0.42 #356
Turnovers 14.5% #319
Total Defense -5.8 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 1.5% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.5% #356 3.4% #245
Possession Length 18.2 #276 16.9 #124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.21 #311
Improvement -2.4 #310 -2.7 #316

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 2.8% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 67.9% 39.6% 71.4%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 72 - 9
Quad 46 - 118 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 76 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 3% -5  0 - 1 -13 -6 D B- F+ -7 C- B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 283 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 46% +5  1 - 1 -6 +3 F+ A+ C -9 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 132 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 18% +8  1 - 2 -5 +2 D+ A+ C -7 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 37 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  1 - 3 -3 +6 D+ B+ A+ -11 B F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 269 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 23% -6  1 - 4 -17 -8 D D F -11 D+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 1 189 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 13% -2  2 - 4 +8 +7 D- B B+ +2 A F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 104 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 5% -4  3 - 4 +10 +0 F A+ F +10 A+ C D
 Mon, Dec 15 307 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 30% -0  3 - 5 -14 -10 D F D+ -4 A F F
 Fri, Dec 19 154 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 10% -22  3 - 6 -31 -11 F D- A -20 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 335 Stetson L 67 - 70 62% -0  3 - 7 0 - 1 -17 -9 F C D -8 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 224 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 34% -8  3 - 8 0 - 2 -24 -21 F F B+ -3 D+ B- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 263 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 22% -3  3 - 9 0 - 3 -11 +8 B- C B- -19 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 294 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 27% +1  4 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +14 A+ D C+ -8 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 348 North Florida L 91 - 105 66% -10  4 - 10 1 - 4 -29 +5 C+ A- C -34 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 297 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 50% -13  4 - 11 1 - 5 -33 -6 F C C+ -27 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 211 @Queens L 62 - 87 15% -10  4 - 12 1 - 6 -25 -13 F D F -12 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 224 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 17% -8  4 - 13 1 - 7 -9 -6 F A+ C+ -3 C C C+
 Sat, Jan 31 335 @Stetson W 68 - 66 39% +3  5 - 13 2 - 7 -6 -2 D+ D+ D+ -4 B+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 208 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 15% -7  5 - 14 2 - 8 -21 -9 F D C -12 F+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 170 @Austin Peay L 66 - 79 11%
 Mon, Feb 9 208 Central Arkansas L 71 - 76 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 330 West Georgia W 75 - 72 60%
 Sun, Feb 15 263 Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 77 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 211 Queens L 77 - 82 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 186 @Lipscomb L 69 - 81 12%
 Wed, Feb 25 294 Bellarmine L 76 - 77 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 330 @West Georgia L 72 - 75 39%
Totals 8 - 19 5 - 13 -11 -5 D- C C- -6 D+ F+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 0.9 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 3.4 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 1.0 7.2 1.4 9.5 9th
10th 0.2 6.6 6.1 0.1 13.0 10th
11th 5.4 12.7 1.7 19.8 11th
12th 4.0 14.6 20.3 5.8 0.1 44.7 12th
Total 4.0 14.6 25.9 26.1 18.2 8.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
7-11 8.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.5
6-12 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.1
5-13 26.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 26.1
4-14 25.9% 25.9
3-15 14.6% 14.6
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%