Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.3 349
Expected Predictive Rating -11.3 333
Pace 68.5 182
Improvement +0.0 185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 330 D+ D- D F+ D+
Defense D- 345 F+ F B- D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 D+ 55% 257 -0.9 212
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 16 F+ 30% 356 +0.3 158
Three Pointers 34% 312 B- 35% 115 -2.6 269
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 282 D+ -2.4 266
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 282
Second Chance D 25.2% 320 D- 0.89 335 D- 0.23 345
Turnovers D 19.1% 313
Freethrows F+ 0.24 352 D 69% 290 F+ 0.16 355
Total Offense D -6.4 330

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 336 C- 11.6% 221
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 180 C+ 4.6% 153
Three Pointers C+ 86% 149 B+ 0.1% 16
Total D 49% 314 C 5.8% 209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 27 F+ 67% 356 +7.7 363
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 352 D+ 41% 272 -2.4 17
Three Pointers 41% 169 D+ 36% 256 +1.2 242
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 356 D- +5.1 349
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 354
Second Chance F 38.0% 363 F 1.22 362 F 0.46 364
Turnovers B- 18.1% 104
Freethrows D+ 0.33 271 C- 73% 239 D+ 0.24 274
Total Defense D- -6.9 345

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 320 C- 10.4% 193
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 333 B- 6.7% 77
Three Pointers C- 85% 200 D 0.3% 308
Total D 62% 313 C 5.7% 162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 234 16.3 30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 169 0.27 363
Improvement +1.0 #135 -0.9 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 355 348 335
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 9 - 9
Conference Finish 11 9 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 16% 27% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 86 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 3% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -22 C- -1 A C+ F F -19 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 188 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 10% +3  71% 0 - 2 D+ -5 D- -6 A F F C+ +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 66 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 2% -30  0% 0 - 3 F -33 F -19 F C- F F -15 B- F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 107 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0% 0 - 4 D- -13 F -10 B- D- F C- -2 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 215 @Howard L 64 - 72 11% -5  1% 0 - 5 D+ -8 D -5 C+ F B+ D+ -3 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 54 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  28% 0 - 6 D- -13 B +7 B A+ D F -19 B- F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 51 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 1% -5  23% 0 - 7 D+ -5 F -18 C F F A+ +13 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 28 211 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 16% +11  98% 1 - 7 C+ +4 D -6 A- F+ F A +9 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 218 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  0% 1 - 8 F -25 D- -8 D+ F D- F -20 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 7 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  5% 1 - 9 F -39 D+ -3 A+ D F F -28 F F B+
 Fri, Dec 19 47 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1% -29  1% 1 - 10 F -43 F -20 F D- C- F -16 F C B+
 Mon, Dec 29 73 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  17% 1 - 11 F -25 F -25 F F B- C- -2 F+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 332 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 31% -7  11% 1 - 12 0 - 1 D -11 B- +5 C+ C C+ F -17 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 307 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 23% -4  13% 2 - 12 1 - 1 C- -4 F+ -8 F+ F B- B +5 C+ F+ B-
 Mon, Jan 12 309 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 24% -6  2% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -21 F -12 F B- D+ F+ -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 297 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 41% -1  31% 2 - 14 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -4 F+ F+ D+ D- -8 D+ F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 334 Prairie View W 76 - 75 54% +3  74% 3 - 14 2 - 3 D- -13 D -5 F+ C- C D- -8 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 333 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 31% +0  42% 3 - 15 2 - 4 F+ -16 F -16 F F F C -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 13% -11  4% 3 - 16 2 - 5 D -10 C- -1 F+ A- B F+ -9 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 267 Southern W 78 - 73 33% +1  52% 4 - 16 3 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 A+ D- F F+ -8 D+ F+ D+
 Mon, Feb 2 293 Grambling St. L 50 - 74 39% -13  2% 4 - 17 3 - 6 F -34 F -21 F F A F -16 F F C
 Sat, Feb 7 328 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 84 30% -10  0% 4 - 18 3 - 7 F+ -15 C +2 B D C F -17 F F A-
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 77% +12  98% 5 - 18 4 - 7 D- -13 B- +5 B F A+ F -16 D- F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 241 Bethune-Cookman W 57 - 55 28% -5  14% 6 - 18 5 - 7 D+ -5 F -14 D- B F A +9 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 333 Florida A&M L 78 - 86 54% -10  0% 6 - 19 5 - 8 F -22 D+ -4 F A B+ F -18 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 332 Jackson St. W 79 - 78 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 297 @Texas Southern L 72 - 80 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 334 @Prairie View L 76 - 81 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 78 - 64 90%
 Thu, Mar 5 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 77 52%
Totals 8 - 22 7 - 11 -13 D -6 D+ D+ D+ D- -7 B- D F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ F+ B- D+ 39% 60% 34% D+ D+ D D- D- D F+ D F+ D- F+ D+ D+ D- 45% 14% 41% F+ F+ F F F B- D+ C- D+
0.99 55% 30% 35% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 19% .24 69% .16 1.18 67% 41% 36% +5 +1 1.15 38% 1.2 .46 18% .33 73% .17
Nov
4		 Florida St. C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 39% 32% F A C B- C+ F A+ F A+ F F B F+ F 54% 5% 40% F F D- F F D- D- B+ D+
1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29 1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25
Nov
6		 South Alabama D- A+ D B+ A 25% 6% 69% B- A F+ F F F D+ A C C+ F+ A+ D D- 59% 17% 24% F+ D- D- F F A+ F A- F
0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17 1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Minnesota F F+ F B+ F 35% 48% 17% F F D+ C- C- F B- F C- F C+ B- A A- 63% 6% 31% F B- F F F C+ F F F
0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17 1.36 60% 33% 27% -3 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55
Nov
11		 Maryland F A+ F A B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- C- F D- F F+ F+ F C- F B+ B- F+ 33% 13% 54% D+ F+ F B- D- A+ F D+ F
0.89 77% 20% 41% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.8 .19 29% .22 64% .14 1.17 81% 33% 31% +5 +1 1.13 45% 1.0 .45 24% .49 74% .36
Nov
13		 Howard D B D D+ C+ 45% 19% 36% C- C+ F F F B+ F A+ F+ D+ F C+ A F 46% 27% 27% B+ F F F F A D A- C-
0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18 1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26
Nov
18		 LSU B F+ A+ B+ A- 27% 27% 46% D- B B+ A+ A+ D F F F F C A A- 61% 0% 39% F B- F F F C+ F D+ F
1.11 47% 53% 38% +4 -2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 18% .18 45% .08 1.47 61% 28% -2 +4 1.07 56% 1.6 .88 15% .63 79% .50
Nov
23		 Oklahoma F D F A+ C 34% 30% 36% D+ C F F F F F F F A+ A A+ A A+ 32% 13% 55% C- A+ D+ A+ A D- F A- F
0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10 1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31
Nov
28		 Indiana St. D B+ A+ C A 46% 20% 33% B- A- B F F+ F B F C A B+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 4% 45% D- A+ D+ F F B F F F
1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18 0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32
Nov
29		 Louisiana Tech D- F C- B D 51% 24% 24% C D+ B F F D- A+ F D F F+ B F F 44% 23% 33% C F F F F F A+ A A+
0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20 1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09
Dec
3		 Iowa St. D+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% D A+ C- F+ D F F+ D F+ F F+ A+ F F 44% 9% 47% F+ F F F F B+ D+ F D-
0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11 1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27
Dec
19		 Baylor F A+ F A F 10% 65% 25% F F C- F D- C- F A+ F F F F F F 36% 29% 35% D+ F F A C B+ D+ F F
0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09 1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31
Dec
29		 Mississippi F F F F F 32% 40% 28% F F F F+ F B- D- B D+ C- F A D D- 32% 20% 48% F F+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ F A+
0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20 1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13
Jan
3		 Jackson St. B- F+ F A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ C- C+ C C+ B+ F C- F F C F+ F 36% 16% 48% F F B- B+ B F F F F
1.23 53% 20% 54% +7 -2 1.13 34% 1.1 .37 14% .40 58% .23 1.27 83% 38% 38% +12 0 1.26 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 84% .35
Jan
10		 Alabama A&M F+ F A- D+ F+ 46% 18% 36% C+ F+ D- F F B- F B+ F+ B C+ F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% D- C+ F+ D+ F+ B- C+ A+ A
0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17
Jan
12		 Alabama St. F F F F+ F 35% 19% 46% D+ F D- A+ B- D+ F C F+ F+ F A+ F+ F 43% 11% 46% F F C F F A- F F F
0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21 1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Texas Southern D+ C+ F F F 46% 9% 46% B F+ D F F+ D+ B+ A+ A+ D- B- F A- C 62% 22% 16% F D+ D- D- F+ F+ F A- F
1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39 1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38
Jan
19		 Prairie View D D+ A+ F F 44% 17% 39% C+ F+ A F C- C F A D- D- F B- F F 38% 29% 33% D F A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C-
1.09 54% 56% 24% -5 +1 0.94 48% 0.8 .38 19% .28 81% .23 1.07 70% 33% 41% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.5 .07 14% .32 84% .27
Jan
24		 Florida A&M F F A+ F F 52% 19% 29% B- F D- F F F D+ D- D C F+ A C F 53% 10% 38% F F F+ F F A+ C B C
0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22 0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19
Jan
26		 Bethune-Cookman C- D F C D- 43% 25% 32% D F+ C- A+ A- B F D- F F+ F F A F 55% 13% 32% F F C+ A+ B+ C- F C- F
1.04 50% 21% 33% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.6 .48 13% .20 67% .13 1.16 73% 67% 27% +8 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .19 17% .44 69% .31
Jan
31		 Southern B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% A- A+ D- D D- F D C D F+ D F+ A C- 36% 20% 43% D- D+ F+ D F+ D+ F C F
1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24 1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Grambling St. F F F F F 49% 17% 34% C+ F F D+ F A C F D F F+ B+ D+ F 43% 15% 43% D- F F F F C A C- A-
0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22 1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18
Feb
7		 Arkansas Pine Bluff C D D A+ B+ 40% 24% 36% D B F A+ D C F A+ F F C- F F F 45% 14% 40% F F F F F A- F D- F
1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20 1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37
Feb
9		 Mississippi Valley B- A+ F A- B+ 36% 14% 50% C+ B F A+ F A+ D+ D- D- F B- F A+ F+ 28% 42% 30% C+ D- F F+ F D+ F A+ F+
1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26 1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25
Feb
14		 Bethune-Cookman F D+ C F D 50% 34% 16% F+ D- D- A+ B F B+ F C A F A+ A D 51% 19% 30% F+ D F B F A+ D+ B C
0.89 53% 38% 17% -7 -1 0.87 26% 1.7 .44 22% .38 63% .24 0.86 74% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .42 36% .34 64% .22
Feb
16		 Florida A&M D+ D D- D- F 46% 29% 25% D F D- A+ A B+ B A+ A F C A- D- D+ 35% 24% 41% C D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33 1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 0.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 0.4 2.9 5th
6th 0.2 6.5 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 5.0 3.6 8.6 7th
8th 1.3 16.7 0.6 18.6 8th
9th 0.0 9.5 9.5 0.0 19.0 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 16.3 1.4 19.9 10th
11th 1.6 13.3 7.3 0.0 22.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.6 15.5 34.4 32.8 13.5 2.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 2.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 2.1
9-9 13.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 13.0
8-10 32.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 32.5
7-11 34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 34.4
6-12 15.5% 15.5
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 1.6%