Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#289
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#197
Pace68.8#166
Improvement+0.0#192

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#292
First Shot-6.0#336
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#42
Layup/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#341
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement-0.1#209

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#269
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#348
Layups/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows-2.4#326
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.7% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 83.9% 90.1% 67.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 21.6% 26.3% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
First Round6.2% 7.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 31 - 33 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 95   @ Mississippi L 58-73 9%     0 - 1 -7.3 -7.6 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. W 66-57 11%     1 - 1 +15.4 +6.8 +9.7
  Nov 15, 2022 135   @ Stephen F. Austin W 69-60 14%     2 - 1 +13.6 -1.9 +15.4
  Nov 22, 2022 175   @ UTEP L 61-73 2OT 19%     2 - 2 -9.4 -11.1 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2022 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-98 40%     2 - 3 -35.3 -11.6 -22.9
  Nov 25, 2022 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 62-54 55%     3 - 3 +0.0 -12.4 +12.3
  Nov 27, 2022 66   @ Arizona St. L 54-76 6%     3 - 4 -10.9 -10.8 -0.3
  Nov 29, 2022 116   @ Grand Canyon L 72-80 13%     3 - 5 -2.4 +9.3 -12.7
  Dec 04, 2022 3   @ Tennessee L 40-94 1%     3 - 6 -32.6 -18.0 -15.4
  Dec 10, 2022 130   @ Southern Illinois L 68-74 14%     3 - 7 -1.0 +2.8 -4.0
  Dec 18, 2022 142   @ Seattle L 58-72 15%     3 - 8 -9.7 -8.8 -1.3
  Dec 20, 2022 68   @ Dayton L 46-88 6%     3 - 9 -31.1 -17.3 -16.3
  Jan 02, 2023 327   Jackson St. L 66-67 70%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -13.2 -13.7 +0.6
  Jan 07, 2023 347   Alabama A&M W 89-76 78%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -1.8 +6.0 -8.6
  Jan 09, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 92-76 81%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -0.1 +10.0 -10.6
  Jan 14, 2023 314   @ Texas Southern W 79-74 OT 45%     6 - 10 3 - 1 -0.5 -1.4 +0.5
  Jan 16, 2023 287   @ Prairie View W 77-68 OT 39%     7 - 10 4 - 1 +5.0 +1.9 +2.6
  Jan 21, 2023 358   Florida A&M W 57-47 86%     8 - 10 5 - 1 -8.3 -13.2 +6.2
  Jan 23, 2023 354   Bethune-Cookman W 76-68 83%     9 - 10 6 - 1 -8.8 -7.5 -1.4
  Jan 28, 2023 233   @ Southern L 68-80 29%     9 - 11 6 - 2 -13.0 -6.2 -6.2
  Jan 30, 2023 240   @ Grambling St. W 63-60 30%     10 - 11 7 - 2 +1.6 +2.5 -0.4
  Feb 04, 2023 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 06, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 74-61 90%    
  Feb 11, 2023 354   @ Bethune-Cookman W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 13, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 327   @ Jackson St. L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 287   Prairie View W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 27, 2023 314   Texas Southern W 71-67 66%    
  Mar 02, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-64 75%    
  Mar 04, 2023 331   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 69-68 51%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.5 8.4 3.0 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.1 16.8 14.4 4.4 0.3 43.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.3 9.9 6.1 0.9 21.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.2 0.2 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 10.6 19.5 25.6 22.8 12.8 3.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 91.1% 3.0    2.2 0.8
15-3 65.8% 8.4    4.1 4.0 0.3
14-4 32.8% 7.5    2.2 4.1 1.2 0.0
13-5 9.9% 2.5    0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 8.9 10.1 2.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.3% 21.9% 21.9% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 2.6
15-3 12.8% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.5 10.8
14-4 22.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 20.2
13-5 25.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.2 1.8 23.7
12-6 19.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 18.5
11-7 10.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 10.2
10-8 4.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.0
9-9 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.5 7.2 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 21.9% 15.2 1.9 12.8 7.2