Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.0 #345
Expected Predictive Rating -11.1 #325
Pace 74.3 #53
Improvement -1.7 #281

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #325 C F F F F
Defense #337 F D+ F C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.15 #197 -1.3 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #23 0.57 #352 +1.2 #114
Three Pointers 32% #334 1.27 #4 -0.2 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.3 #186
Freethrows 14.9 #296 64% #350 9.6 #331
Second Chance 26.5% #293 0.77 #363 0.20 #354
Turnovers 20.6% #352
Total Offense -6.0 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.37 #359 -8.3 #363
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #326 0.65 #63 +3.1 #10
Three Pointers 40% #210 1.10 #295 -1.4 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #348 -6.6 #339
Freethrows 18.7 #252 75% #277 14.0 #82
Second Chance 39.5% #361 1.23 #340 0.48 #364
Turnovers 17.1% #158
Total Defense -6.0 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #335 2.3% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #149 11.0% #340
Possession Length 16.7 #133 15.6 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #111 0.27 #359
Improvement +0.0 #189 -1.7 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 4.0% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 2.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 36.3% 55.9% 29.9%
Conference Champion 2.9% 6.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.6% 2.7%
First Four2.4% 3.9% 1.9%
First Round1.1% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 21 - 10
Quad 48 - 129 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 109 @Florida St. L 76-108 5%     -16.7   0 - 1 -24.6 +0.1 -22.3
  Thu, Nov 6 197 @South Alabama L 70-76 12%     3.4   0 - 2 -5.3 -3.2 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 8 77 @Minnesota L 50-95 3%     -29.8   0 - 3 -34.4 -16.8 -17.8
  Tue, Nov 11 108 @Maryland L 64-84 5%     -12.4   0 - 4 -12.6 -5.7 -6.3
  Thu, Nov 13 275 @Howard L 64-72 21%     -5.3   0 - 5 -11.4 -4.2 -7.7
  Tue, Nov 18 42 @LSU L 81-107 1%     -6.7   0 - 6 -11.1 +11.1 -21.2
  Sun, Nov 23 49 @Oklahoma L 53-72 2%     -4.7   0 - 7 -5.3 -14.4 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 28 188 Indiana St. W 81-74 17%     11.5   1 - 7 +5.1 -1.8 +6.1
  Sat, Nov 29 215 @Louisiana Tech L 58-83 13%     -9.7   1 - 8 -25.0 -5.2 -22.6
  Wed, Dec 3 3 @Iowa St. L 68-132 0.3%    -36.2   1 - 9 -37.8 +0.7 -30.3
  Fri, Dec 19 31 @Baylor L 56-113 1%     -28.7   1 - 10 -40.0 -16.4 -17.7
  Mon, Dec 29 72 @Mississippi L 43-79 3%     -14.3   1 - 11 -25.0 -22.3 -4.3
  Sat, Jan 3 342 @Jackson St. L 86-89 37%     -6.7   1 - 12 0 - 1 -11.5 +8.8 -20.3
  Sat, Jan 10 299 @Alabama A&M L 70-77 25%    
  Mon, Jan 12 298 @Alabama St. L 75-82 25%    
  Sat, Jan 17 335 Texas Southern W 79-77 57%    
  Mon, Jan 19 310 Prairie View L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 340 @Florida A&M L 75-79 37%    
  Mon, Jan 26 277 @Bethune-Cookman L 74-83 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 255 Southern L 78-82 37%    
  Mon, Feb 2 246 Grambling St. L 72-76 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 330 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 81-86 34%    
  Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 277 Bethune-Cookman L 77-80 41%    
  Mon, Feb 16 340 Florida A&M W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 342 Jackson St. W 80-78 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 335 @Texas Southern L 76-80 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 310 @Prairie View L 78-85 28%    
  Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 81-66 91%    
  Thu, Mar 5 330 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-83 55%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 3.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 5.7 1.0 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.6 2.9 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.7 5.7 0.5 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.9 1.6 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.4 2.9 0.2 14.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.7 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 15.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.9 9.6 13.4 15.8 15.2 13.6 10.1 6.5 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 88.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 59.2% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 26.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.1 0.5
13-5 1.7% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.2 1.5
12-6 3.5% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.3 3.2
11-7 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.1
10-8 10.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.6 9.5
9-9 13.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 13.2
8-10 15.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 14.9
7-11 15.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.7
6-12 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-13 9.6% 9.6
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%