Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -13.5 350
Results Rating -11.6 337
Consistency 0.16 221
Pace 68.4 181
Improvement -0.2 195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 341 D D- D D- D+
Defense D- 331 D- F B- D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 D+ 54% 285 -0.7 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 24 F+ 30% 358 -0.1 185
Three Pointers 34% 320 C 34% 186 -3.6 300
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 266 D -3.8 312
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 315
Second Chance D 25.0% 324 D 0.93 315 D- 0.23 337
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 233
Other Turnovers D- 9.0% 341
Turnovers D 18.8% 307
Freethrows D- 0.25 341 D+ 70% 264 D- 0.17 344
Total Offense D- -7.3 341

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F+ 34% 345 D+ 12.7% 281
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 204 C 5.3% 211
Three Pointers C+ 87% 119 B+ 0.1% 15
Total D- 47% 327 D+ 6.5% 287


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 21 F+ 67% 357 +8.0 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 D+ 40% 263 -2.3 21
Three Pointers 40% 201 C- 35% 210 +0.0 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 359 D- +4.4 336
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 344
Second Chance F 37.9% 362 F+ 1.19 358 F 0.45 364
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.9% 75
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 196
Turnovers B- 18.0% 98
Freethrows D+ 0.34 283 C- 73% 243 D+ 0.25 285
Total Defense D- -6.3 331

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 310 C- 10.4% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 347 B 7.1% 59
Three Pointers C- 86% 242 C- 0.6% 232
Total D 62% 319 C+ 5.9% 148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 245 16.3 29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 179 0.25 359
Consistency 0.13 245 0.15 326
Improvement -0.8 228 +0.6 167

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 353 349 344
Results Rating Rank 340 336 327
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 10 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 2% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -21 C- -1 A C+ F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 186 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 9% +3  71% 0 - 2 C- -5 D -6 A F F C+ +1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 57 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 2% -30  0% 0 - 3 F -32 F -19 F D+ F F -13 B F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 107 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0% 0 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 B- D F C- -3 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 182 @Howard L 64 - 72 9% -5  1% 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -4 C+ F B C- -3 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 18 59 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  28% 0 - 6 D- -13 B +6 B A+ D F -19 C+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 44 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 1% -5  23% 0 - 7 C- -4 F -17 C F F A+ +13 A+ A F+
 Fri, Nov 28 200 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 15% +11  98% 1 - 7 C+ +5 D -5 A D- F A +9 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 220 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  0% 1 - 8 F -26 D- -8 D F D- F -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 10 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  5% 1 - 9 F -41 D+ -4 A D F F -29 F F B+
 Fri, Dec 19 47 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1% -29  1% 1 - 10 F -42 F -21 F F+ C- F -15 F C A-
 Mon, Dec 29 74 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  17% 1 - 11 F -25 F -25 F F B- C -1 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 345 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 36% -7  11% 1 - 12 0 - 1 D- -13 B- +5 C+ C- B- F -18 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 304 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 22% -4  13% 2 - 12 1 - 1 C- -4 F+ -10 F+ F B- B+ +6 C+ D- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 313 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 25% -6  2% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -21 F -12 F B- D+ F+ -9 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 301 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 41% -1  31% 2 - 14 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -4 F+ F+ D+ F+ -8 D+ F F+
 Mon, Jan 19 322 Prairie View W 76 - 75 50% +3  74% 3 - 14 2 - 3 D- -12 D -5 F+ C- C- D- -8 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 315 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 25% +0  42% 3 - 15 2 - 4 D- -15 F -15 F+ F F C -0 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 236 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 13% -11  4% 3 - 16 2 - 5 D -10 C- -2 F+ A- B F+ -9 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 277 Southern W 78 - 73 34% +1  52% 4 - 16 3 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 A+ F+ F F+ -9 D+ F+ C-
 Mon, Feb 2 309 Grambling St. L 50 - 74 44% -13  2% 4 - 17 3 - 6 F -36 F -21 F F A F -17 F F C
 Sat, Feb 7 332 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 84 32% -10  0% 4 - 18 3 - 7 F+ -16 C +1 B- D- C+ F -17 F F A-
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 71% +12  98% 5 - 18 4 - 7 D -11 B +6 B+ F A+ F -16 D- F D
 Sat, Feb 14 236 Bethune-Cookman W 57 - 55 27% -5  14% 6 - 18 5 - 7 D+ -5 F -15 F+ B F A +10 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 315 Florida A&M L 78 - 86 46% -10  0% 6 - 19 5 - 8 F -21 D+ -3 F A+ B F -18 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 345 Jackson St. W 83 - 65 59% -2  22% 7 - 19 6 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 F B- C+ B +5 B- D A+
 Thu, Feb 26 301 @Texas Southern L 87 - 92 OT 22% +4  75% 7 - 20 6 - 9 D -10 C- -1 F B C+ F+ -8 D- B- F
 Sat, Feb 28 322 @Prairie View L 51 - 72 28% -14  0% 7 - 21 6 - 10 F -28 F -27 F F D+ C -1 F D D+
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 67 - 64 86% +7  93% 8 - 21 7 - 10 F -22 F -12 F C+ C F -10 D+ F A-
 Thu, Mar 5 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77 - 76 54%
Totals 9 - 21 8 - 10 -14 D- -7 C D D+ D- -6 C D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ F+ C D 40% 57% 34% D+ D D D D- D D- D+ D- D- F+ D+ C- D- 45% 14% 40% F+ D- F F+ F B- D+ C- D+
0.98 54% 30% 34% -4 -1 0.93 25% 0.9 .23 19% .25 70% .17 1.18 67% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.14 38% 1.2 .45 18% .34 73% .18
Nov
4		 Florida St. C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 39% 32% F A C- B C+ F A+ F A+ F F B F F 54% 5% 40% F F D F F D- F+ B+ D+
1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29 1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25
Nov
6		 South Alabama D A+ D+ B+ A 25% 6% 69% B- A F+ F F F D+ A C C+ F+ A+ D D- 59% 17% 24% D- D- F+ F F A+ F A- F
0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17 1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Minnesota F F F B+ F 35% 48% 17% F F D+ D+ D+ F B F C F C+ B A+ A 63% 6% 31% F B F F F B- F F F
0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17 1.36 60% 33% 27% -3 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55
Nov
11		 Maryland F+ A+ F A B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- C F D F F+ F F C- F B B F+ 33% 13% 54% D+ F+ F B- D- A+ F C- F
0.89 77% 20% 41% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.8 .19 29% .22 64% .14 1.17 81% 33% 31% +4 +1 1.13 45% 1.0 .45 24% .49 74% .36
Nov
13		 Howard D B D C- B- 45% 19% 36% C- C+ F F F B F A+ F+ C- F C+ A F 46% 27% 27% B+ F+ F+ F F A D- B+ C-
0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18 1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26
Nov
18		 LSU B F+ A+ B+ A- 27% 27% 46% D B B+ A+ A+ D F F F F C A A- 61% 0% 39% F C+ F F F C+ F D+ F
1.11 47% 53% 38% +4 -2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 18% .18 45% .08 1.47 61% 28% -2 +4 1.07 56% 1.6 .88 15% .63 79% .50
Nov
23		 Oklahoma F D F A+ C+ 34% 30% 36% D+ C F F F F F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% C- A+ D+ A+ A F+ F A F
0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10 1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31
Nov
28		 Indiana St. D B+ A+ C A 46% 20% 33% B- A B+ F D- F B F C A B+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 4% 45% F+ A+ D F F B F F F
1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18 0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32
Nov
29		 Louisiana Tech D- F C- B- D 51% 24% 24% C D B F F D- A+ F D F F+ B F F 44% 23% 33% C- F F F F F A+ A A+
0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20 1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09
Dec
3		 Iowa St. D+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% D A C- F D F F D F+ F F+ A+ F F 44% 9% 47% F+ F F F F B+ D+ F+ D-
0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11 1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27
Dec
19		 Baylor F A+ F A F 10% 65% 25% F F C- F F+ C- F A+ F F F F F F 36% 29% 35% D+ F F A C A- D+ F F
0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09 1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31
Dec
29		 Mississippi F F F F F 32% 40% 28% F F F F F B- D- B D+ C F A D D- 32% 20% 48% F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ F A+
0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20 1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13
Jan
3		 Jackson St. B- D- F A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ D+ C+ C- B- B+ F D+ F F C F+ F 36% 16% 48% F F B- B+ B F F F F
1.23 53% 20% 54% +7 -2 1.13 34% 1.1 .37 14% .40 58% .23 1.27 83% 38% 38% +12 0 1.26 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 84% .35
Jan
10		 Alabama A&M F+ F A- D+ F 46% 18% 36% C+ F+ D- F F B- F B+ F+ B+ C+ F A+ B 35% 17% 48% F+ C+ F+ D+ D- B- C+ A+ A
0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17
Jan
12		 Alabama St. F F F F+ F 35% 19% 46% D+ F D- A+ B- D+ F C+ F+ F+ F A+ F+ F 43% 11% 46% F F C- F F A F F F
0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21 1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Texas Southern D+ C+ F F F 46% 9% 46% B+ F+ D F F+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B- F A- C 62% 22% 16% F D+ D- F F F+ F A F
1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39 1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38
Jan
19		 Prairie View D D+ A+ F F 44% 17% 39% C+ F+ A+ F C- C- F A D- D- F B- F F 38% 29% 33% D F A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C-
1.09 54% 56% 24% -5 +1 0.94 48% 0.8 .38 19% .28 81% .23 1.07 70% 33% 41% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.5 .07 14% .32 84% .27
Jan
24		 Florida A&M F F A+ F F 52% 19% 29% B- F+ D F F F D+ D+ D C F+ A C- F 53% 10% 38% F F F+ F F A+ C- B- C
0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22 0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19
Jan
26		 Bethune-Cookman C- D F C F+ 43% 25% 32% D- F+ D+ A+ A- B F D- F F+ F F A F 55% 13% 32% F F B- A+ A- D+ F C- F
1.04 50% 21% 33% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.6 .48 13% .20 67% .13 1.16 73% 67% 27% +8 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .19 17% .44 69% .31
Jan
31		 Southern B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ D- F+ F+ F D C- D F+ D- F A C- 36% 20% 43% D D+ F D+ F+ C- F C- F
1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24 1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Grambling St. F F F F F 49% 17% 34% C+ F F D+ F A C+ F D+ F F+ B+ D+ F 43% 15% 43% F+ F F F F C A- D+ B+
0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22 1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18
Feb
7		 Arkansas Pine Bluff C D D- A+ B 40% 24% 36% D B- F A+ D- C+ F A F F C- F F F 45% 14% 40% F F F F F A- F D- F
1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20 1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37
Feb
9		 Mississippi Valley B A+ F A B+ 36% 14% 50% C+ B+ F A+ F A+ D D- D- F B- F A+ F+ 28% 42% 30% C+ D- F F F D F A+ F+
1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26 1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25
Feb
14		 Bethune-Cookman F D+ C F D- 50% 34% 16% F F+ D- A+ B F A- F C+ A F A+ A D+ 51% 19% 30% D- D F B+ F A+ D+ B C-
0.89 53% 38% 17% -7 -1 0.87 26% 1.7 .44 22% .38 63% .24 0.86 74% 14% 27% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .42 36% .34 64% .22
Feb
16		 Florida A&M D+ D+ D- D- F 46% 29% 25% D F D A+ A+ B B A+ A F C+ A D- D+ 35% 24% 41% C D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33 1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35
Feb
21		 Jackson St. D+ F+ F D- F 46% 11% 43% B F B C B- C+ A+ C+ A+ B C+ D A+ A- 39% 16% 45% F B- F+ C D A+ F B- F
1.16 52% 20% 30% -7 +2 0.91 42% 1.1 .45 15% .63 76% .48 0.91 53% 43% 20% -11 +1 0.82 32% 1.0 .32 25% .48 73% .35
Feb
26		 Texas Southern C- D+ F F F 44% 18% 39% C F D+ A+ B C+ B- B- B F+ F A+ A+ D 60% 19% 21% F D- F A+ B- F D- F F
1.09 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.5 .44 15% .40 74% .30 1.16 70% 25% 23% +1 +2 1.08 33% 0.7 .23 13% .34 79% .27
Feb
28		 Prairie View F F F D- F 53% 22% 25% C+ F F D F D+ F A+ F+ C F C- B+ F 38% 35% 27% C F F B- D D+ A A+ A+
0.72 37% 9% 31% -19 +1 0.67 13% 1.0 .13 20% .25 86% .21 1.02 70% 39% 29% +3 -2 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 14% .25 60% .15
Mar
3		 Mississippi Valley F D+ D+ F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F D A+ C+ C A+ D+ A F D- D+ A+ D+ 36% 39% 25% D D+ F F F A- F F F
1.04 58% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 17% .52 71% .37 0.99 63% 41% 18% -3 -2 0.91 36% 1.3 .46 25% .47 78% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 37.2 37.2 8th
9th 18.7 16.7 35.4 9th
10th 27.4 27.4 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 46.1 53.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 53.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.4 53.4
7-11 46.1% 46.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 32.1% 1.4% 16.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%
Lose Out 46.1%