Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -13.2 348
Results Rating -11.7 337
Consistency 0.16 229
Pace 68.7 176
Improvement +0.5 171

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 337 D D- D D- D+
Defense D- 332 D- F C+ D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 140 D+ 54% 288 -0.9 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 23 F+ 30% 359 -0.2 188
Three Pointers 34% 313 C+ 35% 149 -3.1 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 266 D -3.5 302
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 307
Second Chance D 24.9% 327 D 0.92 326 D- 0.23 342
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 256
Other Turnovers D- 8.8% 332
Turnovers D 18.8% 309
Freethrows F+ 0.24 346 D+ 70% 259 D- 0.17 350
Total Offense D- -7.0 337

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 35% 342 D+ 12.7% 280
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 225 C 5.5% 222
Three Pointers C+ 87% 127 B+ 0.1% 12
Total D- 47% 323 D+ 6.5% 285


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 22 F+ 67% 357 +8.0 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 353 C- 40% 259 -2.4 19
Three Pointers 40% 196 C- 35% 220 +0.3 195
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 360 D- +4.5 337
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 346
Second Chance F 37.6% 361 F+ 1.19 354 F 0.45 364
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 84
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 201
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 104
Freethrows D+ 0.33 267 C- 73% 219 D+ 0.24 270
Total Defense D- -6.1 332

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 302 C- 9.9% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 336 B- 6.4% 80
Three Pointers C- 85% 218 C- 0.6% 216
Total D 61% 308 C 5.7% 172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 236 16.2 27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 175 0.26 361
Consistency 0.13 252 0.15 334
Improvement -0.3 203 +0.8 152

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 352 347 338
Results Rating Rank 345 336 324
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 11 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 48 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 78 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 2% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -21 C- -1 A C+ F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 185 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 10% +3  71% 0 - 2 C- -5 D -6 A F F C+ +1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 57 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 2% -30  0% 0 - 3 F -32 F -19 F D+ F F -13 B F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 104 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0% 0 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 B- D F C- -3 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 182 @Howard L 64 - 72 9% -5  1% 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -4 C+ F B+ C- -3 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 18 58 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  28% 0 - 6 D- -13 B +6 B+ A+ D F -18 C+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 46 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 1% -5  23% 0 - 7 C- -4 F -18 C F F A+ +13 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 28 197 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 15% +11  98% 1 - 7 C+ +5 D -5 A D- F A +9 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 222 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  0% 1 - 8 F -26 D- -8 D F D- F -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 10 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  5% 1 - 9 F -41 D+ -4 A D F F -29 F F B+
 Fri, Dec 19 47 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1% -29  1% 1 - 10 F -42 F -21 F F+ C- F -15 F C B+
 Mon, Dec 29 74 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  17% 1 - 11 F -25 F -25 F F B C- -2 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 346 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 38% -7  11% 1 - 12 0 - 1 D- -13 B- +5 C+ C- B- F -18 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 309 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 25% -4  13% 2 - 12 1 - 1 C- -4 F+ -10 F+ F B- B+ +6 C+ D- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 312 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 25% -6  2% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -21 F -13 F B- D+ F+ -8 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 301 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 43% -1  31% 2 - 14 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -4 F+ F+ D+ F+ -8 D+ F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 324 Prairie View W 76 - 75 51% +3  74% 3 - 14 2 - 3 D- -12 D -5 F+ C- C- D- -8 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 315 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 26% +0  42% 3 - 15 2 - 4 D- -15 F -15 F+ F F C -0 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 237 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 13% -11  4% 3 - 16 2 - 5 D -10 C- -2 F+ A- B F+ -8 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 283 Southern W 78 - 73 37% +1  52% 4 - 16 3 - 5 C- -5 B- +4 A+ F+ F F+ -8 C- F+ C-
 Mon, Feb 2 306 Grambling St. L 50 - 74 44% -13  2% 4 - 17 3 - 6 F -36 F -21 F F A+ F -17 F F C
 Sat, Feb 7 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 84 33% -10  0% 4 - 18 3 - 7 F+ -16 C +1 B- D- C+ F -17 F F A
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 73% +12  98% 5 - 18 4 - 7 D- -12 B +6 B+ F A+ F -16 D- F D
 Sat, Feb 14 237 Bethune-Cookman W 57 - 55 28% -5  14% 6 - 18 5 - 7 D+ -5 F -15 F+ B F A +10 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 315 Florida A&M L 78 - 86 48% -10  0% 6 - 19 5 - 8 F -21 D+ -3 F A+ B F -18 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 346 Jackson St. W 83 - 65 61% -2  22% 7 - 19 6 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 F B- C B +4 B- D A+
 Thu, Feb 26 301 @Texas Southern L 87 - 92 OT 23% +4  75% 7 - 20 6 - 9 D -10 C- -1 F B C+ F+ -8 D- B- F
 Sat, Feb 28 324 @Prairie View L 51 - 72 29% -14  0% 7 - 21 6 - 10 F -28 F -27 F F D+ C -1 F D D+
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 65 88%
 Thu, Mar 5 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77 - 76 55%
Totals 8 - 22 7 - 11 -13 D- -7 A D D+ D- -6 C+ D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ F+ C+ D 40% 58% 34% D+ D D D D- D F+ D+ D- D- F+ C- C- D- 45% 14% 40% F+ D- F F+ F C+ D+ C- D+
0.99 54% 30% 35% -4 -1 0.94 25% 0.9 .23 19% .24 70% .17 1.17 67% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.14 38% 1.2 .45 18% .33 73% .18
Nov
4		 Florida St. C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 39% 32% F A C- B C+ F A+ F A+ F F B F F 54% 5% 40% F F D F F D- F+ B+ D+
1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29 1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25
Nov
6		 South Alabama D A+ D+ B+ A 25% 6% 69% B- A F+ F F F D+ A C C+ F+ A+ D D- 59% 17% 24% D- D- F+ F F A+ F A- F
0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17 1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Minnesota F F F B+ F 35% 48% 17% F F D+ D+ D+ F B F C F C+ B A+ A 63% 6% 31% F B F F F B- F F F
0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17 1.36 60% 33% 27% -3 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55
Nov
11		 Maryland F+ A+ F A B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- C F D F F+ F F C- F B B F+ 33% 13% 54% D+ F+ F B- D- A+ F C- F
0.89 77% 20% 41% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.8 .19 29% .22 64% .14 1.17 81% 33% 31% +4 +1 1.13 45% 1.0 .45 24% .49 74% .36
Nov
13		 Howard D B D C- B- 45% 19% 36% C- C+ F F F B+ F A+ F+ C- F C+ A F 46% 27% 27% B+ F+ F+ F F A D- B+ C-
0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18 1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26
Nov
18		 LSU B F+ A+ B+ A- 27% 27% 46% D B+ B+ A+ A+ D F F F F C A A- 61% 0% 39% F C+ F F F C+ F D+ F
1.11 47% 53% 38% +4 -2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 18% .18 45% .08 1.47 61% 28% -2 +4 1.07 56% 1.6 .88 15% .63 79% .50
Nov
23		 Oklahoma F D F A+ C+ 34% 30% 36% D+ C F F F F F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% C- A+ D+ A+ A D- F A F
0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -2 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10 1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31
Nov
28		 Indiana St. D B+ A+ C A 46% 20% 33% B- A B+ F D- F B F C A B+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 4% 45% F+ A+ D F F B F F F
1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18 0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32
Nov
29		 Louisiana Tech D- F C- B- D 51% 24% 24% C D B F F D- A+ F D F F+ B F F 44% 23% 33% C- F F F F F A+ A A+
0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20 1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09
Dec
3		 Iowa St. D+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% D A C- F D F F D F+ F F+ A+ F F 44% 9% 47% F+ F F F F B+ D+ F+ D-
0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11 1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27
Dec
19		 Baylor F A+ F A F 10% 65% 25% F F C- F F+ C- F A+ F F F F F F 36% 29% 35% D+ F F A C B+ D+ F F
0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09 1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31
Dec
29		 Mississippi F F F F F 32% 40% 28% F F F F F B D- B D+ C- F A D- D- 32% 20% 48% F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ F A+
0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20 1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13
Jan
3		 Jackson St. B- D- F A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ D+ C C- B- B+ F D+ F F C F+ F 36% 16% 48% F F B- B+ B F F F F
1.23 53% 20% 54% +7 -2 1.13 34% 1.1 .37 14% .40 58% .23 1.27 83% 38% 38% +12 0 1.26 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 84% .35
Jan
10		 Alabama A&M F+ F A- D+ F 46% 18% 36% C+ F+ D- F F B- F B+ F+ B+ C+ F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% D- C+ F+ D+ D- B- C+ A+ A
0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17
Jan
12		 Alabama St. F F F F F 35% 19% 46% D+ F D- A+ B- D+ F C+ F F+ F A+ F+ F 43% 11% 46% F F C- F F A F F F
0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21 1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Texas Southern D+ C+ F F F 46% 9% 46% B+ F+ D F F+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B- F A- C 62% 22% 16% F D+ D- F+ F+ F+ F A F
1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39 1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38
Jan
19		 Prairie View D D+ A+ F F 44% 17% 39% C+ F+ A+ F C- C- F A D- D- F B- F F 38% 29% 33% D F A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C-
1.09 54% 56% 24% -5 +1 0.94 48% 0.8 .38 19% .28 81% .23 1.07 70% 33% 41% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.5 .07 14% .32 84% .27
Jan
24		 Florida A&M F F A+ F F 52% 19% 29% B- F+ D F F F D+ D+ D C F+ A C- F 53% 10% 38% F F F+ F F A+ C- B- C
0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22 0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19
Jan
26		 Bethune-Cookman C- D F C F+ 43% 25% 32% D- F+ D+ A+ A- B F D- F F+ F F A F 55% 13% 32% F F B- A+ A- D+ F C- F
1.04 50% 21% 33% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.6 .48 13% .20 67% .13 1.16 73% 67% 27% +8 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .19 17% .44 69% .31
Jan
31		 Southern B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ D- D- F+ F D C- D F+ D F A C- 36% 20% 43% D C- F D+ F+ C- F C- F
1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24 1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Grambling St. F F F F F 49% 17% 34% C+ F F D+ F A+ B- F D+ F F+ B+ D+ F 43% 15% 43% D- F F F F C A D+ B+
0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22 1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18
Feb
7		 Arkansas Pine Bluff C D D- A+ B+ 40% 24% 36% D B- F A+ D- C+ F A F F C- F F F 45% 14% 40% F F F F F A F D- F
1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20 1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37
Feb
9		 Mississippi Valley B A+ F A B+ 36% 14% 50% C+ B+ F A+ F A+ D D- D- F B- F A+ F+ 28% 42% 30% C+ D- F F F D F A+ F
1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26 1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -4 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25
Feb
14		 Bethune-Cookman F D+ C F D- 50% 34% 16% F F+ D- A+ B F A- F C+ A F A+ A D+ 51% 19% 30% D- D F B+ F A+ D+ B C
0.89 53% 38% 17% -7 -1 0.87 26% 1.7 .44 22% .38 63% .24 0.86 74% 14% 27% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .42 36% .34 64% .22
Feb
16		 Florida A&M D+ D+ D- D- F 46% 29% 25% D F D A+ A+ B B A+ A F C+ A D- D+ 35% 24% 41% C D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33 1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35
Feb
21		 Jackson St. D+ F+ F D- F 46% 11% 43% B F B C B- C A+ B- A+ B C D A+ B+ 39% 16% 45% F B- F+ C D A+ F B- F
1.16 52% 20% 30% -7 +2 0.91 42% 1.1 .45 15% .63 76% .48 0.91 53% 43% 20% -11 +1 0.82 32% 1.0 .32 25% .48 73% .35
Feb
26		 Texas Southern C- D+ F F F 44% 18% 39% C F D+ A+ B C+ B- B- B F+ F A+ A+ D 60% 19% 21% F D- F A+ B- F D- F F
1.09 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.5 .44 15% .40 74% .30 1.16 70% 25% 23% +1 +2 1.08 33% 0.7 .23 13% .34 79% .27
Feb
28		 Prairie View F F F D- F 53% 22% 25% C+ F F D F D+ F A+ F+ C F C- B+ F 38% 35% 27% C F F B- D D+ A A+ A+
0.72 37% 9% 31% -19 +1 0.67 13% 1.0 .13 20% .25 86% .21 1.02 70% 39% 29% +3 -2 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 14% .25 60% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 1.3 1.3 7th
8th 22.6 22.6 8th
9th 5.6 20.2 25.8 9th
10th 2.0 36.5 4.3 42.8 10th
11th 3.7 3.9 7.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.7 45.9 48.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 48.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.4 48.0
7-11 45.9% 45.9
6-12 5.7% 5.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 30.6% 1.3% 16.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%
Lose Out 5.7%