Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#344
Expected Predictive Rating-14.4#338
Pace76.5#38
Improvement-3.1#334

Offense
Total Offense-8.9#350
First Shot-7.4#338
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#275
Layup/Dunks-1.6#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#344
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement-0.2#208

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#310
First Shot+0.2#163
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#350
Layups/Dunks+1.8#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows-2.6#303
Improvement-2.8#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 3.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.3% 48.4% 37.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.8% 3.2%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 30 - 30 - 11
Quad 49 - 1110 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 130   @ Western Kentucky L 74-79 5%     0 - 1 +0.4 -5.4 +6.4
  Nov 10, 2021 86   @ Vanderbilt L 72-91 3%     0 - 2 -10.0 -3.3 -4.7
  Nov 13, 2021 101   @ Missouri St. L 60-78 3%     0 - 3 -10.3 -14.4 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2021 58   @ Iowa St. L 60-68 2%     0 - 4 +3.1 -8.4 +11.9
  Nov 18, 2021 20   @ Iowa L 82-108 1%     0 - 5 -9.1 +8.5 -16.3
  Nov 20, 2021 334   NC Central W 80-74 OT 58%     1 - 5 -9.6 -12.3 +1.7
  Nov 28, 2021 311   North Alabama L 69-81 43%     1 - 6 -23.7 -11.4 -11.7
  Dec 01, 2021 98   @ Dayton L 54-93 3%     1 - 7 -30.8 -13.5 -18.2
  Dec 08, 2021 243   Samford L 76-82 28%    
  Dec 11, 2021 229   @ Pepperdine L 68-81 11%    
  Dec 15, 2021 9   @ UCLA L 57-91 0.1%   
  Dec 21, 2021 34   @ Memphis L 60-88 0.5%   
  Dec 28, 2021 19   @ Texas Tech L 55-86 0.3%   
  Jan 03, 2022 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 05, 2022 357   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 244   Jackson St. L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 10, 2022 321   Alcorn St. L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 15, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 249   @ Prairie View L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 24, 2022 176   @ Texas Southern L 63-79 7%    
  Jan 29, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 31, 2022 301   Florida A&M L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 320   @ Grambling St. L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 07, 2022 297   @ Southern L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 12, 2022 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 14, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 19, 2022 301   @ Florida A&M L 64-73 23%    
  Feb 21, 2022 348   @ Bethune-Cookman L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 03, 2022 297   Southern L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 320   Grambling St. L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.7 0.2 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.2 4.7 0.8 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.5 5.5 1.1 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.4 5.3 1.2 0.0 15.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.8 3.4 0.8 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.2 8.6 12.5 14.6 15.1 13.6 10.9 7.4 4.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 63.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 23.2% 23.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
13-5 2.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 2.1
12-6 4.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 4.6
11-7 7.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 7.2
10-8 10.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.7
9-9 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 13.4
8-10 15.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.0
7-11 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
6-12 12.5% 12.5
5-13 8.6% 8.6
4-14 5.2% 5.2
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%