Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#281
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#289
Pace68.9#198
Improvement-0.7#229

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#207
First Shot-0.7#189
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#236
Layup/Dunks-0.2#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#139
Freethrows-2.0#304
Improvement+1.3#91

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#328
First Shot-3.4#295
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#298
Layups/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#325
Freethrows+1.4#90
Improvement-2.0#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 17.1% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 25.6% 49.9% 24.0%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 87.4% 78.1%
Conference Champion 13.7% 18.8% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four8.9% 8.3% 8.9%
First Round8.1% 13.7% 7.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 412 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 113 @Florida St. L 64-101 12%     0 - 1 -30.5 -12.6 -14.0
  Tue, Nov 11 107 @UAB W 77-74 11%     1 - 1 +10.2 +2.5 +7.6
  Mon, Nov 17 73 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     1 - 2 -17.3 -4.8 -12.1
  Wed, Nov 19 322 @Air Force L 64-66 51%     1 - 3 -8.8 -6.6 -2.3
  Fri, Nov 21 354 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 76%     2 - 3 +7.3 +7.2 -2.6
  Sun, Nov 23 249 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 44%     2 - 4 -20.0 -0.8 -20.0
  Wed, Nov 26 66 @New Mexico L 87-93 6%     2 - 5 +5.2 +16.9 -11.4
  Sun, Dec 7 214 @Tennessee Martin L 64-74 28%     2 - 6 -10.5 -4.1 -7.0
  Thu, Dec 11 60 @Missouri L 77-85 5%     2 - 7 +3.8 +17.2 -14.4
  Wed, Dec 17 67 @Cincinnati L 51-88 6%     2 - 8 -25.8 -10.5 -15.4
  Mon, Dec 22 72 @Memphis L 67-88 6%     2 - 9 -10.3 -0.8 -8.6
  Mon, Dec 29 80 @Mississippi St. L 68-84 6%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 80-66 90%    
  Mon, Jan 5 351 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 324 Jackson St. W 78-72 72%    
  Mon, Jan 12 337 Alcorn St. W 81-73 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 293 Alabama A&M W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 320 @Prairie View W 79-78 50%    
  Mon, Jan 26 327 @Texas Southern W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 269 Bethune-Cookman W 77-75 59%    
  Mon, Feb 2 341 Florida A&M W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 245 @Grambling St. L 70-75 34%    
  Mon, Feb 9 222 @Southern L 75-81 31%    
  Sat, Feb 14 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-75 80%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 83-63 96%    
  Thu, Feb 19 341 @Florida A&M W 76-74 57%    
  Thu, Feb 19 269 @Bethune-Cookman L 74-78 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 293 @Alabama A&M L 70-72 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 222 Southern W 79-78 52%    
  Thu, Mar 5 245 Grambling St. W 73-72 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 4.3 2.7 1.0 0.2 13.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 6.1 5.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.7 5.1 1.2 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.7 5.2 1.1 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.5 5.7 1.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.6 2.0 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.8 0.2 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.0 0.3 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 5.9 9.7 13.0 15.2 15.8 13.8 10.4 6.3 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 98.4% 1.0    1.0 0.1
15-3 89.5% 2.7    2.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 68.0% 4.3    2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 38.0% 4.0    1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.5% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 7.6 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 44.4% 44.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.0% 37.9% 37.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6
15-3 3.0% 30.8% 30.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.1
14-4 6.3% 25.3% 25.3% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.7
13-5 10.4% 20.8% 20.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 8.2
12-6 13.8% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.1 2.2 11.6
11-7 15.8% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9 13.9
10-8 15.2% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 1.6 13.6
9-9 13.0% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.0 12.0
8-10 9.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 9.3
7-11 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-12 3.4% 3.4
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 11.1 87.7 0.0%