IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.5	#285
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.1	#232

Pace	71.6	#105
Improvement	-2.5	#320

Offense
Total Offense	-3.5	#269

First Shot	+1.8	#128
After Offensive Rebound	-5.4	#363

Layup/Dunks	-7.9	#357
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.8	#79
3 Pt Jumpshots	+5.5	#35
Freethrows	+2.4	#63

Improvement	-2.2	#327

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#270

First Shot	+0.9	#147
After Offensive Rebounds	-3.8	#355

Layups/Dunks	+3.5	#75
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.4	#172
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.2	#233
Freethrows	-1.8	#289

Improvement	-0.4	#215

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.2%	14.2%	10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	56.8%	63.8%	39.7%
.500 or above in Conference	88.3%	90.1%	84.0%
Conference Champion	16.9%	18.7%	12.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%

First Four	8.9%	9.1%	8.4%
First Round	8.6%	9.5%	6.5%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 3	1 - 8
Quad 4	16 - 7	16 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	104	@ UNLV	L	79-93	10%	0 - 1			-6.6	+9.3	-16.0
Nov 10, 2024	47	@ LSU	L	61-74	4%	0 - 2			+0.3	-7.2	+7.9
Nov 22, 2024	306	Nebraska Omaha	W	85-67	54%	1 - 2			+10.6	+5.3	+4.8
Nov 23, 2024	280	Lamar	W	77-75	50%	2 - 2			-4.4	+4.0	-8.3
Nov 24, 2024	131	@ Akron	L	78-97	15%	2 - 3			-14.5	+1.6	-15.2
Nov 27, 2024	25	@ Cincinnati	L	59-77	3%	2 - 4			-1.1	-5.2	+4.2
Dec 03, 2024	62	@ SMU	L	72-101	5%	2 - 5			-16.8	-0.7	-15.0
Dec 05, 2024	250	@ Southern Miss	L	64-81	32%	2 - 6			-18.7	-12.0	-5.8
Dec 11, 2024	328	Tennessee Martin	W	76-70	71%
Dec 19, 2024	153	Norfolk St.	L	68-75	27%
Dec 20, 2024	348	Delaware St.	W	76-70	71%
Dec 30, 2024	63	@ Missouri	L	67-86	4%
Jan 04, 2025	364	Mississippi Valley	W	76-58	95%
Jan 06, 2025	362	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	87-73	90%
Jan 11, 2025	315	@ Jackson St.	L	71-72	46%
Jan 13, 2025	352	@ Alcorn St.	W	72-69	61%
Jan 18, 2025	360	@ Alabama A&M	W	78-73	68%
Jan 25, 2025	357	Prairie View	W	86-75	83%
Jan 27, 2025	294	Texas Southern	W	74-71	62%
Feb 01, 2025	288	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	71-74	40%
Feb 03, 2025	353	@ Florida A&M	W	73-70	62%
Feb 08, 2025	226	Grambling St.	W	71-70	50%
Feb 10, 2025	234	Southern	W	72-71	52%
Feb 15, 2025	362	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	84-76	76%
Feb 17, 2025	364	@ Mississippi Valley	W	73-61	85%
Feb 22, 2025	353	Florida A&M	W	76-67	80%
Feb 24, 2025	288	Bethune-Cookman	W	74-71	61%
Mar 01, 2025	360	Alabama A&M	W	81-70	84%
Mar 06, 2025	234	@ Southern	L	68-74	32%
Mar 08, 2025	226	@ Grambling St.	L	67-73	30%
Projected Record						15 - 15	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.7	4.7	5.3	3.3	1.3	0.3		16.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.9	6.9	5.3	1.6	0.2				17.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	3.3	7.1	4.8	1.1	0.0					16.6	3rd
4th										0.2	2.7	6.4	4.3	0.8	0.0						14.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.8	5.7	4.0	0.7	0.0							12.3	5th
6th								0.1	1.2	4.0	3.2	0.6	0.0								9.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	2.6	2.4	0.4	0.0									6.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	1.3	1.6	0.3	0.0										3.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.7	1.0	0.3	0.0											2.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0												1.0	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1														0.4	11th
12th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	12th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.5	3.3	5.9	8.6	12.4	14.6	15.3	14.2	11.1	7.0	3.5	1.3	0.3			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	100.0%	1.3		1.3	0.0
16-2	95.5%	3.3		2.9	0.5	0.0
15-3	75.9%	5.3		3.4	1.7	0.2
14-4	42.0%	4.7		1.6	2.2	0.8	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.3%	1.7		0.3	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.9%	0.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	16.9%	16.9		9.7	5.1	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		44.9%	44.9%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-1	1.3%		40.1%	40.1%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.8
16-2	3.5%		34.2%	34.2%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	2.3
15-3	7.0%		28.3%	28.3%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	5.0
14-4	11.1%		21.1%	21.1%		15.9															0.0	0.2	2.2	8.8
13-5	14.2%		16.7%	16.7%		16.0																0.1	2.3	11.8
12-6	15.3%		12.2%	12.2%		16.0																0.0	1.8	13.4
11-7	14.6%		9.5%	9.5%		16.0																0.0	1.4	13.2
10-8	12.4%		6.8%	6.8%		16.0																0.0	0.8	11.6
9-9	8.6%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																	0.4	8.2
8-10	5.9%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.2	5.7
7-11	3.3%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
6-12	1.5%																							1.5
5-13	0.7%																							0.7
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	1.5	11.5	86.8		0.0%