Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #290
Pace 69.0 #194
Improvement -2.1 #300

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #225 D+ C- D+ C+ D+
Defense #337 F C F C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.07 #274 -2.3 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.67 #265 +0.8 #134
Three Pointers 38% #244 1.03 #158 -1.3 #229
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #252 -2.9 #253
Freethrows 16.4 #230 71% #218 11.7 #240
Second Chance 31.6% #153 0.87 #341 0.27 #271
Turnovers 16.1% #152
Total Offense -2.0 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.34 #341 -1.5 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #271 0.79 #227 +0.9 #125
Three Pointers 47% #37 1.13 #314 -6.0 #345
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #342 -6.5 #341
Freethrows 16.5 #151 72% #181 12.0 #157
Second Chance 35.5% #326 1.16 #301 0.41 #338
Turnovers 17.3% #145
Total Defense -5.6 #337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #269 0.4% #199
Shot Type Make % Effect -4.5% #241 12.4% #343
Possession Length 17.5 #201 17.3 #204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #131 0.24 #338
Improvement +0.2 #169 -2.3 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 10.8% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 19.7% 21.4% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 77.7% 49.1%
Conference Champion 12.4% 13.6% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 3.7%
First Four8.4% 8.6% 6.9%
First Round6.2% 6.5% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 412 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 111 @Florida St. L 64-101 10%     -20.3   0 - 1 -30.3 -12.4 -14.0
  Tue, Nov 11 109 @UAB W 77-74 9%     3.5   1 - 1 +9.9 +2.3 +7.5
  Mon, Nov 17 87 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     -19.3   1 - 2 -18.4 -5.7 -12.4
  Wed, Nov 19 324 @Air Force L 64-66 47%     2.1   1 - 3 -8.8 -6.0 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 21 354 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 72%     9.5   2 - 3 +7.3 +6.9 -2.2
  Sun, Nov 23 259 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 42%     -1.8   2 - 4 -20.5 -0.4 -20.9
  Wed, Nov 26 71 @New Mexico L 87-93 5%     5.6   2 - 5 +5.0 +18.2 -13.0
  Sun, Dec 7 233 @Tennessee Martin L 64-74 27%     11.8   2 - 6 -11.2 -4.1 -7.8
  Thu, Dec 11 63 @Missouri L 77-85 5%     -10.7   2 - 7 +3.8 +17.1 -14.3
  Wed, Dec 17 58 @Cincinnati L 51-88 4%     -21.4   2 - 8 -24.7 -10.3 -14.7
  Mon, Dec 22 72 @Memphis L 67-88 5%     -13.0   2 - 9 -10.0 +0.1 -9.2
  Mon, Dec 29 73 @Mississippi St. L 56-94 5%     -18.4   2 - 10 -27.1 -11.1 -16.3
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79-66 89%    
  Mon, Jan 5 351 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-78 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 336 Jackson St. W 80-73 74%    
  Mon, Jan 12 341 Alcorn St. W 80-73 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 289 Alabama A&M W 73-71 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 323 @Prairie View L 80-81 48%    
  Mon, Jan 26 328 @Texas Southern L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 278 Bethune-Cookman W 78-76 57%    
  Mon, Feb 2 343 Florida A&M W 79-72 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 250 @Grambling St. L 70-76 30%    
  Mon, Feb 9 240 @Southern L 75-81 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-75 77%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 82-63 96%    
  Thu, Feb 19 343 @Florida A&M W 76-75 55%    
  Thu, Feb 19 278 @Bethune-Cookman L 75-79 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 289 @Alabama A&M L 70-74 38%    
  Tue, Mar 3 240 Southern W 78-77 50%    
  Thu, Mar 5 250 Grambling St. W 73-72 50%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 12.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 6.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 1.1 6.8 4.8 0.6 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 6.1 1.7 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.3 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.1 0.3 6.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.6 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.3 7.0 11.1 14.0 16.4 15.6 12.4 8.8 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 95.0% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 77.1% 3.7    2.5 1.1 0.1
13-5 48.5% 4.3    1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1
12-6 13.9% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 6.6 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 40.4% 40.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 2.0% 25.2% 25.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.5
14-4 4.9% 22.9% 22.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7
13-5 8.8% 18.7% 18.7% 15.9 0.1 1.6 7.1
12-6 12.4% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9 10.4
11-7 15.6% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 1.9 13.7
10-8 16.4% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 1.6 14.8
9-9 14.0% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.9 13.1
8-10 11.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.5 10.6
7-11 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 4.3% 4.3
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 9.8 89.6 0.0%