Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#285
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#232
Pace71.6#105
Improvement-2.5#320

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#269
First Shot+1.8#128
After Offensive Rebound-5.4#363
Layup/Dunks-7.9#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#35
Freethrows+2.4#63
Improvement-2.2#327

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#270
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#355
Layups/Dunks+3.5#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#233
Freethrows-1.8#289
Improvement-0.4#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 14.2% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 56.8% 63.8% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 90.1% 84.0%
Conference Champion 16.9% 18.7% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four8.9% 9.1% 8.4%
First Round8.6% 9.5% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 31 - 8
Quad 416 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 104   @ UNLV L 79-93 10%     0 - 1 -6.6 +9.3 -16.0
  Nov 10, 2024 47   @ LSU L 61-74 4%     0 - 2 +0.3 -7.2 +7.9
  Nov 22, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 54%     1 - 2 +10.6 +5.3 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2024 280   Lamar W 77-75 50%     2 - 2 -4.4 +4.0 -8.3
  Nov 24, 2024 131   @ Akron L 78-97 15%     2 - 3 -14.5 +1.6 -15.2
  Nov 27, 2024 25   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 3%     2 - 4 -1.1 -5.2 +4.2
  Dec 03, 2024 62   @ SMU L 72-101 5%     2 - 5 -16.8 -0.7 -15.0
  Dec 05, 2024 250   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 32%     2 - 6 -18.7 -12.0 -5.8
  Dec 11, 2024 328   Tennessee Martin W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 19, 2024 153   Norfolk St. L 68-75 27%    
  Dec 20, 2024 348   Delaware St. W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 30, 2024 63   @ Missouri L 67-86 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 06, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-73 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 315   @ Jackson St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 13, 2025 352   @ Alcorn St. W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 357   Prairie View W 86-75 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 294   Texas Southern W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 288   @ Bethune-Cookman L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 03, 2025 353   @ Florida A&M W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   Grambling St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 10, 2025 234   Southern W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 353   Florida A&M W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 24, 2025 288   Bethune-Cookman W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 81-70 84%    
  Mar 06, 2025 234   @ Southern L 68-74 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 226   @ Grambling St. L 67-73 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 5.3 3.3 1.3 0.3 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.9 5.3 1.6 0.2 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.1 4.8 1.1 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 6.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 5.9 8.6 12.4 14.6 15.3 14.2 11.1 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 95.5% 3.3    2.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 75.9% 5.3    3.4 1.7 0.2
14-4 42.0% 4.7    1.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 9.7 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 44.9% 44.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 40.1% 40.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8
16-2 3.5% 34.2% 34.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.3
15-3 7.0% 28.3% 28.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 5.0
14-4 11.1% 21.1% 21.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.8
13-5 14.2% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.1 2.3 11.8
12-6 15.3% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8 13.4
11-7 14.6% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4 13.2
10-8 12.4% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.6
9-9 8.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.4 8.2
8-10 5.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.7
7-11 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 11.5 86.8 0.0%