Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.9 310
Expected Predictive Rating -10.9 328
Pace 71.8 94
Improvement -2.9 296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 326 D D D+ D+ D+
Defense C- 258 D D B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 D 52% 305 +19.8 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 47 D 34% 307 +8.5 138
Three Pointers 38% 254 C- 33% 227 +18.5 263
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 267 D -3.7 308
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 311
Second Chance C 30.8% 174 F 0.81 360 D 0.25 315
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 282
Freethrows D+ 0.28 262 D+ 70% 272 D+ 0.19 282
Total Offense D -6.4 326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 180 D+ 62% 293 +24.2 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 336 C+ 36% 112 +5.5 343
Three Pointers 46% 43 D+ 36% 281 +25.2 26
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 296 D+ +2.9 291
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 298
Second Chance D 34.3% 319 D+ 1.10 289 D 0.38 326
Turnovers B- 18.8% 68
Freethrows D 0.36 322 D- 76% 336 D- 0.27 335
Total Defense C- -2.5 258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 135 16.7 84
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 87 0.24 345
Improvement -6.7 #362 +3.8 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 28% 30% 4%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 1%
First Round2% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 49 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 5% -20  0% 0 - 1 F -27 F -14 F C+ D+ F+ -10 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 117 @UAB W 77 - 74 9% +4  75% 1 - 1 B +9 C +0 C D B A- +8 B+ C+ A-
 Mon, Nov 17 71 @Colorado L 66 - 94 4% -19  0% 1 - 2 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ D+ C+ F+ -10 D- F+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 349 @Air Force L 64 - 66 53% +2  71% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -10 F F D+ C -1 D- F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 329 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 57% +9  86% 2 - 3 B +10 B +6 A- F+ C+ C+ +2 F A- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 236 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 32% -2  48% 2 - 4 F -19 D+ -2 F C- B F -18 F+ F+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 48 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 3% +6  82% 2 - 5 B +8 A+ +16 A+ A+ F+ D -7 F C+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 205 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 19% +0  60% 2 - 6 D -10 D -5 B+ F C- D -6 B- F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 53 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3% -11  0% 2 - 7 B- +5 A+ +16 A- A+ A+ F -12 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 45 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 2% -21  0% 2 - 8 F -22 F -12 F+ F A- F+ -11 D- B- F
 Mon, Dec 22 92 @Memphis L 67 - 88 6% -13  0% 2 - 9 D- -13 D+ -4 D- B D+ D- -8 F C A
 Mon, Dec 29 75 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4% -18  0% 2 - 10 F -27 F -13 F F D- F -15 D- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 85% +9  98% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 C+ F F C- -3 F+ C B+
 Mon, Jan 5 316 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 41% -6  10% 3 - 11 1 - 1 F -18 D -5 D F C+ F -12 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 332 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 70% -7  8% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -25 F -24 F C F C -1 B- C- C+
 Mon, Jan 12 348 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 74% +6  92% 4 - 12 2 - 2 C -1 D+ -4 C- D F+ B- +3 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 19 312 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 50% -0  39% 4 - 13 2 - 3 D- -13 F -11 D+ A F C -2 C D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 333 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 48% +12  98% 5 - 13 3 - 3 B- +6 C -0 A- F+ B- B- +4 B- F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 307 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 38% -16  0% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F -38 F -17 F D+ B F -19 F F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 232 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 43% -1  50% 5 - 15 3 - 5 F -22 F -21 F+ F F C -1 D- F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 334 Florida A&M W 79 - 66 71% +3  59% 6 - 15 4 - 5 C -2 D+ -4 B F F C+ +2 C C+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 287 @Grambling St. L 47 - 57 32% -3  35% 6 - 16 4 - 6 D- -14 F -22 F F B B+ +7 C+ B+ D+
 Mon, Feb 9 265 @Southern L 68 - 69 28% -0  42% 6 - 17 4 - 7 C- -4 D+ -4 F+ A F C +0 B- C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 316 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 61 64% +7  84% 7 - 17 5 - 7 B- +5 D -6 C F C A +10 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 63 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 334 @Florida A&M L 71 - 72 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 232 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 312 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 73 39%
 Tue, Mar 3 265 Southern L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Mar 5 287 Grambling St. W 70 - 69 55%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 9 -9 F -6 F D D+ D -3 C- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D C- D 38% 50% 38% D+ D C F D D+ D+ D+ D+ C- D+ C+ D+ D+ 39% 15% 46% D D D D+ D B- D D- D-
0.99 52% 34% 33% -4 -1 0.93 31% 0.8 .25 18% .28 70% .19 1.12 62% 36% 36% +3 +1 1.09 34% 1.1 .38 19% .36 76% .21
Nov
7		 Florida St. F F F D+ F 33% 27% 40% D+ F C- B+ C+ D+ B- F D+ F+ F D+ B C 27% 8% 65% C+ C F F F A A F C+
0.82 44% 13% 32% -12 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18 1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21
Nov
11		 UAB C B- F C C 45% 18% 38% B C B- F D B B+ F B- A- C+ D A+ A- 51% 20% 29% D- B+ D B+ C+ A- B- F C
1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20 0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22
Nov
17		 Colorado D- F F+ A+ F+ 32% 28% 40% D+ F+ C+ F D+ C+ F F F F+ F D D F+ 44% 20% 36% C- D- F D+ F+ B- F D+ F
0.93 22% 31% 43% -7 -1 0.84 28% 0.8 .24 16% .20 58% .12 1.33 75% 44% 38% +11 +1 1.24 39% 1.0 .39 16% .60 78% .47
Nov
19		 Air Force F D D+ F F 40% 22% 38% C+ F F F F D+ B- A B+ C C A+ F D 38% 8% 54% D D- D+ F F A- F C- F
0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27 0.99 57% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30
Nov
21		 IU Indianapolis B C+ A+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C+ A- F C+ F+ C+ D+ A C+ C+ B- A F F 19% 12% 69% C- F B+ A A- A+ B A+ A-
1.26 64% 71% 43% +12 +2 1.30 28% 1.3 .34 19% .37 83% .31 1.00 55% 29% 44% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.9 .20 22% .13 50% .06
Nov
23		 SIU Edwardsville D+ F A+ F F 35% 22% 43% C+ F B+ F C- B A+ A- A+ F F A F+ F 33% 31% 37% C F+ F B- F+ F F B- F
1.02 44% 50% 20% -11 0 0.78 39% 0.8 .29 14% .54 81% .43 1.25 75% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .38 12% .51 67% .34
Nov
26		 New Mexico A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% D A+ A A+ A+ F+ A A- A+ D D+ F F F 41% 7% 52% D F D+ B+ C+ C F B F
1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29 1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44
Dec
7		 Tennessee Martin D A- D- A+ A- 36% 28% 36% D+ B+ F+ F F C- B- F D+ D B- F A- B- 28% 17% 54% C+ B- F D F D+ F A+ C
0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21 1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21
Dec
11		 Missouri A+ C C- A+ A 25% 27% 47% D+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ F+ F F F F F F F 44% 23% 33% B F B F F C B+ C- B
1.24 54% 36% 46% +7 -2 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 11% .22 67% .15 1.37 79% 50% 50% +20 0 1.42 33% 1.9 .62 18% .31 69% .22
Dec
17		 Cincinnati F F C F F+ 33% 33% 33% D- F+ A+ F F A- D- F F+ F+ F C- A+ D- 39% 9% 52% F D- D A- B- F D D+ D
0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12 1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +1 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22
Dec
22		 Memphis D+ C+ B- F D 20% 35% 45% F D- A D+ B D+ B F C- D- F C- F F 30% 15% 56% D+ F F A C A D+ A+ C+
0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23 1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20
Dec
29		 Mississippi St. F F F F F 27% 36% 36% D F D+ F F D- A+ F+ A+ F C- F D- D- 41% 20% 39% D+ D- F F+ F C+ B D+ B-
0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40 1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ B- A B B- 39% 22% 39% C- C+ C+ F F F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F+ B- D C B+ F F F
1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49 0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36
Jan
5		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D D+ D+ C D+ 41% 27% 32% D- D F C F C+ B- C- B- F A+ F F F 48% 16% 36% F F F B+ D B F F F
1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30 1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58
Jan
10		 Jackson St. F F F F F 60% 11% 29% A F A+ F C F B F+ C C C- A+ A A 53% 16% 31% F B- F A- C- C+ F F F
0.85 39% 17% 13% -23 +3 0.62 48% 0.8 .37 25% .37 67% .25 0.99 56% 0% 25% -11 +2 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 20% .53 88% .46
Jan
12		 Alcorn St. D+ B+ F B+ C- 43% 11% 46% C+ C- F+ B- D F+ A+ A A+ B- A A+ A- A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ C- F F C D F+ D-
1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38 0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21
Jan
19		 Alabama A&M F A+ C+ F C- 26% 28% 47% F D+ B A+ A F C- F+ D C F A+ A+ C 33% 27% 40% C+ C B+ F D+ C F F F
0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21 1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40
Jan
24		 Prairie View C C- C A+ A- 44% 17% 39% C+ A- F B- F+ B- D- F F B- D- A+ A+ B- 40% 33% 27% C- B- F+ F F A+ F F F
1.13 58% 40% 52% +11 +1 1.25 25% 1.1 .28 17% .33 65% .21 0.95 63% 25% 23% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.6 .46 27% .56 88% .49
Jan
27		 Texas Southern F F A F F 43% 4% 53% A- F C D- D+ B A F C F C- F F F 37% 16% 47% F+ F F A- F+ D F F F
0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27 1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35
Jan
31		 Bethune-Cookman F B F F D 33% 35% 31% F F+ F+ F F F F C F C C C+ D D+ 60% 14% 26% F D- F C- F A+ F B+ F
0.78 63% 24% 27% -7 -2 0.83 24% 0.7 .16 23% .21 73% .15 1.00 58% 33% 36% 0 +2 1.07 40% 1.0 .40 29% .49 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Florida A&M D+ F+ A+ A+ A- 35% 25% 39% D- B C- F F F D- D+ D- C+ A+ F C+ C+ 47% 14% 39% F C B D+ C+ B- D+ F F+
1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22 0.91 43% 57% 32% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25
Feb
7		 Grambling St. F F F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F C F F B F F F B+ A+ C+ C B- 32% 7% 61% D- C+ A+ D+ B+ D+ C- C C-
0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10 0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25
Feb
9		 Southern D+ C F A D 24% 43% 33% F F+ A- B A F A+ F B- C F A+ C+ B- 27% 35% 39% A B- C C C D- F F F
1.03 60% 28% 43% +1 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31 1.05 69% 18% 32% -5 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
14		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D C+ B- D- C 49% 19% 32% C+ C B F F C D+ A+ C+ A F+ A+ C+ C- 29% 20% 51% C- C- B- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29 0.84 67% 25% 33% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 1.5 3rd
4th 1.2 2.9 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 6.3 1.1 7.5 5th
6th 1.7 9.5 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 8.8 4.7 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 1.6 15.2 0.8 17.5 8th
9th 0.2 10.2 8.2 0.0 18.6 9th
10th 0.1 3.8 12.5 1.0 17.4 10th
11th 0.5 5.3 2.6 8.5 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 9.3 27.0 34.9 22.5 5.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.8% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.9 4.9
9-9 22.5% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 2.2 20.3
8-10 34.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.7 34.2
7-11 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.0
6-12 9.3% 9.3
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.5%