Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -9.3 313
Results Rating -11.7 337
Consistency 0.18 327
Pace 72.2 85
Improvement -3.2 305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 335 D- D+ D+ D+ C-
Defense D+ 251 D D B- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 203 D- 51% 331 -3.0 284
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 61 D 34% 316 +0.3 155
Three Pointers 38% 243 D+ 32% 259 -2.5 265
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 253 D- -4.7 328
1st FG Attempt D- 0.92 331
Second Chance C 30.1% 188 F+ 0.86 352 D+ 0.26 300
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.8% 216
Other Turnovers D+ 8.3% 297
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 269
Freethrows C- 0.28 244 D 69% 292 D+ 0.20 275
Total Offense D -6.7 335

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 306 D+ 12.4% 273
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 182 D- 8.2% 332
Three Pointers D- 76% 326 B+ 0.1% 15
Total D 48% 322 D 6.7% 300

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 172 D 63% 309 +2.2 256
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 327 B 34% 44 -2.6 13
Three Pointers 45% 53 D 36% 289 +4.0 337
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 293 D+ +2.8 293
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 299
Second Chance D 33.5% 303 D+ 1.10 290 D 0.37 318
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 89
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 152
Turnovers B- 18.2% 91
Freethrows D- 0.36 329 D+ 74% 299 D- 0.27 339
Total Defense D+ -2.6 251

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 254 C+ 12.0% 130
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 199 C 5.4% 134
Three Pointers D+ 86% 254 C+ 1.3% 97
Total D 61% 304 C+ 6.1% 142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 127 16.8 89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 100 0.23 344
Consistency 0.14 309 0.11 88
Improvement -6.4 363 +3.3 42

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 325 313 299
Results Rating Rank 347 332 314
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 9 - 9
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 10% 28% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 11 - 8
Quad 48 - 129 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 82 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 5% -20  0% 0 - 1 F -27 F -14 F C+ D F+ -9 C+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 111 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  75% 1 - 1 B +9 C +1 C D B A- +8 B+ C- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 67 @Colorado L 66 - 94 4% -19  0% 1 - 2 F+ -16 D- -6 F+ D+ B- F -10 D- F+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 349 @Air Force L 64 - 66 54% +2  71% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -12 F F D+ C -1 D- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 323 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 54% +9  86% 2 - 3 B +11 B +6 A- D- C+ B- +2 F A- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 263 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 36% -2  48% 2 - 4 F -21 D+ -2 F C- B F -19 F F+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 52 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 3% +6  82% 2 - 5 B- +8 A+ +16 A+ A+ F+ D- -8 F C C
 Sun, Dec 7 217 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 19% +0  60% 2 - 6 D -10 D -4 B+ F C- D- -7 C+ F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 46 @Missouri L 77 - 85 2% -11  0% 2 - 7 B- +6 A+ +16 A- A+ A+ F -11 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 43 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 2% -21  0% 2 - 8 F -22 F -12 F+ F A- F+ -9 D- C+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 105 @Memphis L 67 - 88 7% -13  0% 2 - 9 D- -14 D+ -4 D- B D+ F+ -9 F C A
 Mon, Dec 29 77 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4% -18  0% 2 - 10 F -27 F -14 F F F+ F -14 D- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 85% +9  98% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +3 B- F F D+ -4 F C- A-
 Mon, Jan 5 329 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 44% -6  10% 3 - 11 1 - 1 F -19 D- -6 D F C+ F -12 F D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 338 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 71% -7  8% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -26 F -24 F C F C -1 B C- C+
 Mon, Jan 12 344 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 73% +6  92% 4 - 12 2 - 2 C -1 D+ -4 C D F B- +3 A+ F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 310 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 48% -0  39% 4 - 13 2 - 3 D- -13 F -12 D A F C -1 C+ D C
 Sat, Jan 24 330 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 46% +12  98% 5 - 13 3 - 3 B- +7 C +0 A- F+ B- B +4 C+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 306 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 36% -16  0% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F -38 F -17 F D+ B F -20 F F D
 Sat, Jan 31 241 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 42% -1  50% 5 - 15 3 - 5 F -22 F -22 F F F C -0 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 327 Florida A&M W 79 - 66 67% +3  59% 6 - 15 4 - 5 C -1 D+ -3 B+ F F B- +2 C C+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 295 @Grambling St. L 47 - 57 33% -3  35% 6 - 16 4 - 6 F+ -15 F -22 F F B B+ +6 C A- D+
 Mon, Feb 9 260 @Southern L 68 - 69 26% -0  42% 6 - 17 4 - 7 C- -4 D+ -4 F+ A F C +0 B C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 329 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 61 67% +7  84% 7 - 17 5 - 7 C+ +4 D- -7 C- F C A +10 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 92 - 55 93% +15  76% 8 - 17 6 - 7 B +11 C+ +3 F A+ F B+ +6 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 19 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 82 22% -11  0% 8 - 18 6 - 8 D- -12 D -5 F F A+ D- -7 D- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 327 @Florida A&M L 63 - 76 44% -5  15% 8 - 19 6 - 9 F -21 F -14 F F A- D- -7 F D+ D+
 Sat, Feb 28 310 @Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 260 Southern L 76 - 77 47%
 Thu, Mar 5 295 Grambling St. W 70 - 69 55%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9 D -7 D D- C- D+ -3 D+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D+ D- 38% 49% 38% C- D- C F+ D+ D+ C- D D+ D+ D B D D+ 39% 16% 45% D+ D D D+ D B- D- D+ D-
0.99 51% 34% 32% -5 0 0.92 30% 0.9 .26 18% .28 69% .20 1.12 63% 34% 36% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 18% .36 74% .21
Nov
7		 Florida St. F F F D+ F 33% 27% 40% D+ F C- B+ C+ D B F C- F+ F C- B C+ 27% 8% 65% C+ C+ F F F A A F B-
0.82 44% 13% 32% -12 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18 1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21
Nov
11		 UAB C B F C C 45% 18% 38% B C B- F D B A- F B- A- C+ D A+ A 51% 20% 29% D- B+ D B- C- A- B- F C
1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20 0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22
Nov
17		 Colorado D- F F+ A+ F+ 32% 28% 40% D+ F+ C+ F D+ B- F F F F F D D F+ 44% 20% 36% C- D- F C- F+ B- F D+ F
0.93 22% 31% 43% -7 -1 0.84 28% 0.8 .24 16% .20 58% .12 1.33 75% 44% 38% +11 +1 1.24 39% 1.0 .39 16% .60 78% .47
Nov
19		 Air Force F D D+ F F 40% 22% 38% C+ F F F F D+ B- A B+ C C A+ F D- 38% 8% 54% D D- D+ F F A F C- F
0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27 0.99 57% 0% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30
Nov
21		 IU Indianapolis B B- A+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C+ A- F+ B- D- C+ D+ A C+ B- B A F F 19% 12% 69% D+ F B+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ A
1.26 64% 71% 43% +12 +2 1.30 28% 1.3 .34 19% .37 83% .31 1.00 55% 29% 44% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.9 .20 22% .13 50% .06
Nov
23		 SIU Edwardsville D+ F A+ F F 35% 22% 43% C F B+ F C- B A+ A- A+ F F A F+ F 33% 31% 37% C+ F F B F+ F F C F
1.02 44% 50% 20% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.8 .29 14% .54 81% .43 1.25 75% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .38 12% .51 67% .34
Nov
26		 New Mexico A+ C+ D A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% D A+ A A+ A+ F+ A A A+ D- D F F F 41% 7% 52% D F D+ B C C F B F
1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29 1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44
Dec
7		 Tennessee Martin D A- D A+ A- 36% 28% 36% D+ B+ F+ F F C- B- F D+ D- B- F A- C+ 28% 17% 54% C C+ F D- F D+ F A+ C
0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21 1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21
Dec
11		 Missouri A+ C C- A+ A 25% 27% 47% D+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ D- F F F F F F F 44% 23% 33% B F B- F F C A- C B+
1.24 54% 36% 46% +7 -2 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 11% .22 67% .15 1.37 79% 50% 50% +20 0 1.42 33% 1.9 .62 18% .31 69% .22
Dec
17		 Cincinnati F F C F F+ 33% 33% 33% D- F+ A F F A- D- F F+ F+ F C- A+ D 39% 9% 52% F D- D A- C+ F D C- D
0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12 1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +2 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22
Dec
22		 Memphis D+ C+ B- F D 20% 35% 45% F D- A D+ B D+ B F D+ F+ F C F F 30% 15% 56% D+ F F A C A D+ A+ C+
0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23 1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20
Dec
29		 Mississippi St. F F F F F 27% 36% 36% D F D+ F F F+ A+ F+ A+ F C- F D- D- 41% 20% 39% D D- F D- F C+ B+ D+ B-
0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40 1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ B A B+ B 39% 22% 39% D+ B- C+ F F F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F C+ D- C- A- F F F
1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49 0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36
Jan
5		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D- D+ D C D 41% 27% 32% D- D F C- F C+ B D+ C+ F A+ F F F 48% 16% 36% F F F B D- B+ F F F
1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30 1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58
Jan
10		 Jackson St. F F F F F 60% 11% 29% A F A+ F C F B- F+ C- C C- A+ A+ A 53% 16% 31% F B F A- C- C+ F F F
0.85 39% 17% 13% -23 +3 0.62 48% 0.8 .37 25% .37 67% .25 0.99 56% 0% 25% -12 +2 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 20% .53 88% .46
Jan
12		 Alcorn St. D+ B+ F B+ C- 43% 11% 46% C+ C D- C+ D F A+ A A+ B- A A+ A- A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ C F F C+ D+ D- D
1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38 0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21
Jan
19		 Alabama A&M F A+ C+ F C- 26% 28% 47% F D B A+ A F C F+ D+ C F A+ A+ C+ 33% 27% 40% C+ C+ B+ F D C F F F
0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21 1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40
Jan
24		 Prairie View C C- C A+ A 44% 17% 39% C+ A- F C+ F+ B- D F F+ B D- A+ A+ B- 40% 33% 27% C- C+ F+ F F A+ F F F
1.13 58% 40% 52% +11 +1 1.25 25% 1.1 .28 17% .33 65% .21 0.95 63% 25% 23% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.6 .46 27% .56 88% .49
Jan
27		 Texas Southern F F A F F 43% 4% 53% A- F C D D+ B A F C+ F C- F F F 37% 16% 47% F+ F F A- F D F F F
0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +3 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27 1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35
Jan
31		 Bethune-Cookman F B F F D- 33% 35% 31% F F F+ F F F F C F C C C+ D D+ 60% 14% 26% F D F C F A+ F B+ F
0.78 63% 24% 27% -7 -2 0.83 24% 0.7 .16 23% .21 73% .15 1.00 58% 33% 36% 0 +2 1.07 40% 1.0 .40 29% .49 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Florida A&M D+ F+ A+ A+ A- 35% 25% 39% D- B+ C F F F D- C- D- B- A+ F C+ B- 47% 14% 39% F C B D+ C+ B D+ F F+
1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22 0.91 43% 57% 32% -6 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25
Feb
7		 Grambling St. F F F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F C+ F F B F F F B+ A+ C+ C C+ 32% 7% 61% F+ C A+ C A- D+ D+ C C-
0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10 0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25
Feb
9		 Southern D+ C F A+ D 24% 43% 33% F F+ A- B A F A+ F B C F A+ B- B- 27% 35% 39% A B C- C C D- F F+ F
1.03 60% 28% 43% +1 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31 1.05 69% 18% 32% -6 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
14		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D- C+ C+ D- C- 49% 19% 32% C+ C- B F F C D+ A+ C+ A F+ A+ C+ C- 29% 20% 51% C- C- B- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29 0.84 67% 25% 33% -1 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36
Feb
16		 Mississippi Valley C+ F D- D F 51% 7% 42% A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B- A+ D+ B+ 31% 40% 29% C B+ A+ A A F F A- D
1.27 39% 33% 32% -12 +3 0.84 50% 1.7 .86 22% .64 86% .55 0.76 50% 19% 33% -10 -3 0.75 14% 0.7 .10 15% .36 64% .23
Feb
19		 Bethune-Cookman D F+ A F F 47% 14% 39% B- F F C- F A+ D F F+ D- D- A+ F F+ 41% 24% 35% C D- A+ F C+ F F C- F
0.99 46% 50% 22% -11 +2 0.83 22% 1.1 .24 8% .29 63% .18 1.15 67% 17% 44% +4 0 1.10 16% 1.6 .26 11% .46 69% .32
Feb
21		 Florida A&M F F D- B+ F 34% 30% 36% F F F C+ F A- A- F F+ D- F D A- F 40% 21% 38% D F F B- D+ D+ F A- F
0.90 41% 33% 39% -5 -2 0.90 17% 1.0 .17 14% .40 50% .20 1.09 79% 40% 28% +5 0 1.13 34% 0.8 .26 20% .50 61% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 1.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 3.8 6th
7th 5.2 4.5 9.6 7th
8th 0.8 16.3 1.0 18.1 8th
9th 7.5 10.9 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 1.8 20.5 1.7 24.0 10th
11th 14.3 10.6 0.1 25.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 16.2 39.3 34.2 10.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 10.4% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.7 9.6
8-10 34.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.4 33.9
7-11 39.3% 39.3
6-12 16.2% 16.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 22.3% 16.0 22.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 16.2%