Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.6 318
Results Rating -11.8 337
Consistency 0.18 307
Pace 72.1 82
Improvement -2.8 285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 338 D- D+ C- D+ C-
Defense D+ 259 D+ D C+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 212 D- 51% 329 -3.2 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 82 D+ 34% 294 +0.3 156
Three Pointers 39% 223 D+ 31% 290 -2.6 265
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 248 D- -4.9 336
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 333
Second Chance C 29.8% 193 F+ 0.88 347 D+ 0.26 286
Opponents' Steals C- 9.8% 229
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 268
Turnovers C- 17.7% 253
Freethrows D+ 0.28 254 D 69% 288 D+ 0.19 284
Total Offense D -6.8 338

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 39% 312 C- 12.1% 247
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 192 F+ 8.6% 340
Three Pointers D- 76% 329 B+ 0.1% 12
Total D- 47% 326 D+ 6.6% 299


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 177 D 62% 294 +1.7 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 333 B- 35% 79 -2.4 18
Three Pointers 46% 50 D+ 36% 282 +3.9 332
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 292 D+ +2.5 281
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 287
Second Chance D+ 33.1% 294 D+ 1.10 288 D 0.37 307
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.5% 97
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 212
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 124
Freethrows D- 0.36 322 D+ 74% 285 D- 0.27 333
Total Defense D+ -2.8 259

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 233 C+ 12.4% 113
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 247 C 5.0% 166
Three Pointers D+ 87% 291 B- 1.3% 84
Total D 61% 306 C+ 6.2% 130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 118 16.8 89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 106 0.22 332
Consistency 0.15 344 0.11 103
Improvement -5.8 357 +3.0 50

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 319 317 315
Results Rating Rank 340 338 336
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 30 - 21 - 8
Quad 48 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 74 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F -26 F -14 F B- D F+ -8 C+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 117 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  75% 1 - 1 B +9 C +1 C D B- A- +8 B+ C- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 65 @Colorado L 66 - 94 3% -19  0% 1 - 2 F+ -16 D -6 F+ C- B- F+ -10 D- F+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 344 @Air Force L 64 - 66 51% +2  71% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -11 F F D+ C -1 D- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 327 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 55% +9  86% 2 - 3 B +10 B +6 A- D- C C+ +2 F A- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 259 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 34% -2  48% 2 - 4 F -20 D+ -2 F C- B F -19 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 54 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 3% +6  82% 2 - 5 B- +8 A+ +16 A+ A+ F D- -8 F C C
 Sun, Dec 7 234 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 21% +0  60% 2 - 6 D -11 D+ -4 B+ F C F+ -8 C+ F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 46 @Missouri L 77 - 85 2% -11  0% 2 - 7 B- +7 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ F -11 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 37 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 2% -21  0% 2 - 8 F -20 F -12 F+ F A F+ -9 D- B- F
 Mon, Dec 22 121 @Memphis L 67 - 88 8% -13  0% 2 - 9 F+ -15 D -6 F+ B D+ F+ -9 F C- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 92 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 5% -18  0% 2 - 10 F -29 F -14 F F F+ F -15 D- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 81% +9  98% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +3 B- F F C- -3 F+ C- A-
 Mon, Jan 5 324 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 41% -6  10% 3 - 11 1 - 1 F -18 D -5 D F C+ F -12 F F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 346 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 73% -7  8% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -27 F -25 F C- F C -1 B- C- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 354 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 79% +6  92% 4 - 12 2 - 2 C- -3 D+ -4 C D F C+ +1 A F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 305 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 46% -0  39% 4 - 13 2 - 3 D- -13 F -13 D A F C+ +1 B- D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 320 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 40% +12  98% 5 - 13 3 - 3 B- +8 C+ +2 A F+ B- B +4 C+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 308 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 36% -16  0% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F -38 F -16 F D+ B F -20 F F D
 Sat, Jan 31 239 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 42% -1  50% 5 - 15 3 - 5 F -23 F -23 F F F C -0 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 315 Florida A&M W 79 - 66 61% +3  59% 6 - 15 4 - 5 C +1 D+ -3 B+ F F B- +3 C B- B
 Sat, Feb 7 307 @Grambling St. L 47 - 57 36% -3  35% 6 - 16 4 - 6 F+ -16 F -22 F F B B +5 C- A- D+
 Mon, Feb 9 276 @Southern L 68 - 69 27% -0  42% 6 - 17 4 - 7 C- -4 D -5 F+ A- F C+ +0 B C D
 Sat, Feb 14 324 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 61 64% +7  84% 7 - 17 5 - 7 C+ +5 D -6 C- F C+ A +10 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 92 - 55 92% +15  76% 8 - 17 6 - 7 B+ +12 B- +4 F A+ F A- +7 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 19 239 @Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 82 22% -11  0% 8 - 18 6 - 8 D- -13 D -5 F F A+ D- -7 D- B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 315 @Florida A&M L 63 - 76 38% -5  15% 8 - 19 6 - 9 F -19 F -13 F F A- D- -7 F C- C-
 Sat, Feb 28 305 @Alabama A&M W 89 - 88 35% +2  57% 9 - 19 7 - 9 C- -5 A +13 B B+ A- F -18 F F D-
 Tue, Mar 3 276 Southern L 64 - 71 49% +4  88% 9 - 20 7 - 10 F+ -16 F -17 F B C C+ +0 A- D F+
 Thu, Mar 5 307 Grambling St. L 63 - 65 59% +2  65% 9 - 21 7 - 11 D- -14 F -14 F+ F C- C+ +0 A C+ F+
 Mon, Mar 9 354 Alcorn St. W 76 - 71 70%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -10 D -7 B- D- C- D+ -3 D+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D+ D+ D- 38% 47% 39% C- D- C F+ D+ C- D+ D D+ D+ D B- D+ D+ 39% 16% 46% D+ D+ D+ D+ D C+ D- D+ D-
0.99 51% 34% 31% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.9 .26 18% .28 69% .19 1.13 62% 35% 36% +2 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 18% .36 74% .21
Nov
7		 Florida St. F F F D+ F 33% 27% 40% D+ F C- A B- D B F C- F+ F C- B C+ 27% 8% 65% C+ C+ F F F A A F B-
0.82 44% 13% 32% -13 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18 1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21
Nov
11		 UAB C B F C C 45% 18% 38% B C B F D B- A F B A- C+ D A+ A 51% 20% 29% D- B+ D B- C- A- C+ F+ C
1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20 0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22
Nov
17		 Colorado D F F+ A+ F+ 32% 28% 40% D+ F+ C+ F+ C- B- F F F F+ F D D+ D- 44% 20% 36% C- D- F C- F+ B- F C- F
0.93 22% 31% 43% -8 -1 0.84 28% 0.8 .24 16% .20 58% .12 1.33 75% 44% 38% +11 +1 1.24 39% 1.0 .39 16% .60 78% .47
Nov
19		 Air Force F D D+ F F 40% 22% 38% C+ F F F F D+ B A A- C C A+ F D 38% 8% 54% D D- D+ F F A F C- F
0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27 0.99 57% 0% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30
Nov
21		 IU Indianapolis B B- A+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C+ A- F+ B- D- C D+ A+ C+ C+ B- A F F 19% 12% 69% C- F B+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ A
1.26 64% 71% 43% +12 +2 1.30 28% 1.3 .34 19% .37 83% .31 1.00 55% 29% 44% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.9 .20 22% .13 50% .06
Nov
23		 SIU Edwardsville D+ F A F F 35% 22% 43% C F B+ F C- B A+ A A+ F F A F+ F 33% 31% 37% C+ F+ F B F F F C F
1.02 44% 50% 20% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.8 .29 14% .54 81% .43 1.25 75% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .38 12% .51 67% .34
Nov
26		 New Mexico A+ C D A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% D A+ A A+ A+ F A A A+ D- D F F F 41% 7% 52% D+ F D+ B C C F B- F
1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29 1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44
Dec
7		 Tennessee Martin D+ A- D A+ A- 36% 28% 36% C- B+ F+ F F C B F D+ F+ B- F B+ C+ 28% 17% 54% C C+ F D- F D+ F A+ C-
0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21 1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21
Dec
11		 Missouri A+ C- C- A+ A 25% 27% 47% D+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ F+ F F F F F 44% 23% 33% B F B F F C A- C B+
1.24 54% 36% 46% +7 -2 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 11% .22 67% .15 1.37 79% 50% 50% +20 0 1.42 33% 1.9 .62 18% .31 69% .22
Dec
17		 Cincinnati F F C F F+ 33% 33% 33% D- F+ A F F A D- F F+ F+ F C- A+ D 39% 9% 52% F D- D A B- F D C D
0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12 1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +2 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22
Dec
22		 Memphis D C+ C+ F D- 20% 35% 45% F F+ A D+ B D+ B F D+ F+ F C F F 30% 15% 56% D F F A C- A+ D+ A+ C+
0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23 1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20
Dec
29		 Mississippi St. F F F F F 27% 36% 36% D- F D F F F+ A+ F+ A+ F C- F D- D- 41% 20% 39% D+ D- F D- F C+ B D B-
0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40 1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ B A B+ B 39% 22% 39% D+ B- C+ F F F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F+ C+ D- C- A- F F F
1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49 0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36
Jan
5		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D D+ D- C D 41% 27% 32% D- D F C- F C+ B D+ B- F A+ F F F 48% 16% 36% F F F B- F+ B+ F F F
1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30 1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58
Jan
10		 Jackson St. F F F F F 60% 11% 29% A F A+ F C- F B- F C- C C- A+ A+ A- 53% 16% 31% F B- F+ B+ C- B- F F F
0.85 39% 17% 13% -23 +3 0.62 48% 0.8 .37 25% .37 67% .25 0.99 56% 0% 25% -12 +2 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 20% .53 88% .46
Jan
12		 Alcorn St. D+ B+ F B+ C- 43% 11% 46% C+ C D- B- D F A+ A A+ C+ A A+ B+ A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A C- F F C+ D+ F+ D
1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38 0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21
Jan
19		 Alabama A&M F A+ C+ F C- 26% 28% 47% F D B A A F C F D+ C+ F A+ A+ B- 33% 27% 40% C+ B- B+ F D C+ F F F
0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21 1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40
Jan
24		 Prairie View C+ C C+ A+ A 44% 17% 39% C+ A F C+ F+ B- D+ F F+ B D- A+ A+ B- 40% 33% 27% C- C+ D- F F A+ F F F
1.13 58% 40% 52% +11 +1 1.25 25% 1.1 .28 17% .33 65% .21 0.95 63% 25% 23% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.6 .46 27% .56 88% .49
Jan
27		 Texas Southern F F A F F 43% 4% 53% A- F C D D+ B A+ F C+ F C F F F 37% 16% 47% F+ F F B F D F F F
0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +3 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27 1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35
Jan
31		 Bethune-Cookman F B F F D- 33% 35% 31% F F F+ F F F F C+ F C C C+ D D+ 60% 14% 26% F D F C+ F A+ F A- F
0.78 63% 24% 27% -7 -2 0.83 24% 0.7 .16 23% .21 73% .15 1.00 58% 33% 36% 0 +2 1.07 40% 1.0 .40 29% .49 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Florida A&M D+ F+ A+ A+ A 35% 25% 39% D- B+ C F F F D- C- D- B- A+ F C+ C+ 47% 14% 39% F C B+ C B- B D F F+
1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22 0.91 43% 57% 32% -6 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25
Feb
7		 Grambling St. F F F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F C+ F F B F F F B A C+ C- C 32% 7% 61% F+ C- A+ C- A- D+ D C D
0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10 0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25
Feb
9		 Southern D C F A+ D+ 24% 43% 33% F F+ A- C+ A- F A+ F B C+ F A+ B- B- 27% 35% 39% A B C- B- C D F F F
1.03 60% 28% 43% 0 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31 1.05 69% 18% 32% -6 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
14		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D C+ C+ D- C- 49% 19% 32% C+ C- B F F C+ D+ A+ C+ A F+ A+ C C- 29% 20% 51% C- C- B- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29 0.84 67% 25% 33% -1 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36
Feb
16		 Mississippi Valley B- F D- D F 51% 7% 42% A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A- B- A+ C- A- 31% 40% 29% C B+ A+ A A F F A D
1.27 39% 33% 32% -12 +3 0.84 50% 1.7 .86 22% .64 86% .55 0.76 50% 19% 33% -10 -3 0.75 14% 0.7 .10 15% .36 64% .23
Feb
19		 Bethune-Cookman D F+ A+ F F 47% 14% 39% C+ F F D+ F A+ D+ F D- D- D- A+ F F+ 41% 24% 35% C+ D- A+ F B- F F C- F
0.99 46% 50% 22% -11 +2 0.83 22% 1.1 .24 8% .29 63% .18 1.15 67% 17% 44% +4 0 1.10 16% 1.6 .26 11% .46 69% .32
Feb
21		 Florida A&M F F D- B+ F 34% 30% 36% F F F C+ F A- A- F F+ D- F D A- F 40% 21% 38% D+ F F+ B+ C- C- F A F
0.90 41% 33% 39% -5 -2 0.90 17% 1.0 .17 14% .40 50% .20 1.09 79% 40% 28% +5 0 1.13 34% 0.8 .26 20% .50 61% .30
Feb
28		 Alabama A&M A C+ A- A+ B 41% 18% 41% C B D+ A+ B+ A- C+ A B F D F F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F D- F F D- F A+ D+
1.32 62% 44% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 12% .34 80% .27 1.31 61% 64% 48% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.4 .41 13% .43 64% .27
Mar
3		 Southern F F F F F 32% 23% 45% D+ F D A+ B C F F F C+ A+ A C A 45% 22% 33% F+ A- D+ D D F+ F C- F
0.90 47% 25% 21% -15 -1 0.70 27% 1.6 .44 18% .26 67% .17 1.00 40% 25% 33% -11 0 0.80 32% 1.2 .37 13% .44 70% .31
Mar
5		 Grambling St. F D- A+ F F+ 34% 16% 50% D+ F+ C F F C- B- F C- C+ D A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% F+ A C- B- C+ F+ C- F D-
0.89 53% 63% 24% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.4 .13 20% .35 65% .23 0.92 62% 17% 15% -15 +1 0.74 29% 0.9 .26 17% .32 84% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%