Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 297
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 314
Pace 72.0 89
Improvement +5.0 25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 279 C- D+ C- C- D+
Defense D+ 287 D D+ C- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 C- 56% 229 -0.6 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 48 C 38% 169 +2.2 67
Three Pointers 35% 305 C- 33% 238 -3.8 310
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 277 C- -1.5 227
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 248
Second Chance D 25.9% 307 C+ 1.07 120 D+ 0.28 259
Turnovers C- 17.7% 235
Freethrows C- 0.29 231 C- 70% 246 C- 0.20 244
Total Offense D+ -4.0 279

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 347 C 11.4% 205
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 216 B 2.6% 34
Three Pointers F 68% 364 B+ 0.2% 29
Total F 41% 361 C+ 5.2% 130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 D+ 61% 278 +1.4 228
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 354 D 42% 302 -2.1 32
Three Pointers 47% 26 C- 35% 236 +4.2 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 325 D+ +2.5 279
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 293
Second Chance D+ 32.6% 275 D+ 1.10 288 D+ 0.36 300
Turnovers C- 15.8% 243
Freethrows D- 0.37 338 C+ 71% 106 D- 0.26 325
Total Defense D+ -3.8 287

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 286 C- 10.4% 194
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 131 B- 6.9% 67
Three Pointers C+ 82% 125 D 0.1% 334
Total D+ 60% 285 C- 5.1% 215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 180 16.5 40
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 90 0.20 262
Improvement +2.0 #91 +3.0 #46

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 317 296 264
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 12% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5% 6% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 98% 97%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four12% 12% 10%
First Round6% 6% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 412 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  12% 0 - 1 F -33 F -23 F C D- D- -8 C F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 35 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 2% -12  19% 0 - 2 F+ -17 D -5 B B- F F+ -9 D- D F
 Wed, Nov 12 187 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 38% +1  47% 0 - 3 D+ -8 C+ +2 A- F A F -10 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 225 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 24% -12  0% 0 - 4 D -11 F+ -8 D D F C- -2 D+ F A
 Thu, Nov 20 14 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  2% 0 - 5 D- -13 B- +4 A+ F C+ F -15 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 114 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 22% -6  27% 0 - 6 D- -12 F -14 F C- D B +4 A B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 66 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 5% -20  1% 0 - 7 F -24 F -15 F+ F+ F F+ -9 F C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 2% -24  0% 0 - 8 F+ -17 C+ +3 D- A B F -19 F+ F D
 Mon, Dec 22 243 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 48% +2  65% 0 - 9 D- -14 D- -7 D+ D+ B D- -8 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 267 @Southern L 73 - 84 32% -8  2% 0 - 10 0 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F C- D- C- -2 F C D+
 Mon, Jan 5 293 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 37% -9  7% 0 - 11 0 - 2 F -21 D- -7 F A+ F+ F -15 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 72% -8  10% 0 - 12 0 - 3 F -22 F -16 F F C- D -6 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 95% +18  98% 1 - 12 1 - 3 B- +6 C -0 B+ D F A- +7 A F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 349 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 59% +1  54% 2 - 12 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -3 D- F+ A D -6 C+ C- D
 Mon, Jan 19 332 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 52% -5  1% 2 - 13 2 - 4 D- -13 B- +5 B D C F -18 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 307 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 65% -1  46% 3 - 13 3 - 4 C+ +3 A +12 A- C A+ D- -8 F C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 309 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 65% +16  99% 4 - 13 4 - 4 A +20 A +13 A+ C B+ B+ +6 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 31 334 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 52% -2  30% 4 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -15 D -5 D A C+ F -10 D D F
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @Florida A&M W 62 - 57 52% +4  78% 5 - 14 5 - 5 C- -3 F+ -9 C- F F B+ +6 B- A A-
 Mon, Feb 9 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 79 OT 27% +2  55% 5 - 15 5 - 6 D- -11 F+ -9 F D- C C- -2 A- F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 293 Grambling St. W 82 - 79 60% +2  57% 6 - 15 6 - 6 D+ -7 B- +5 A+ B D F -12 F A D
 Mon, Feb 16 267 Southern W 74 - 73 54% -6  9% 7 - 15 7 - 6 D+ -8 D- -8 D+ D- D- C +0 D+ B C
 Thu, Feb 19 328 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 64 50% +2  59% 8 - 15 8 - 6 B +11 B- +5 B C- A- B+ +6 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 66 89%
 Thu, Feb 26 349 Alcorn St. W 80 - 72 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 332 Jackson St. W 83 - 77 73%
 Thu, Mar 5 334 Prairie View W 84 - 78 72%
Totals 11 - 16 10 - 7 -8 D+ -4 B+ C- D+ D+ -4 C- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C C- C- 39% 50% 35% D+ C- D C+ D+ C- C- C- C- D+ D+ D C- D+ 39% 14% 47% D D D+ D+ D+ C- D- C+ D-
1.03 56% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.98 26% 1.1 .28 18% .29 70% .20 1.14 61% 42% 35% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 16% .37 71% .21
Nov
3		 Gonzaga F F F F F 30% 34% 36% D+ F C+ C- C D- C+ F D+ D- C- F B+ B 52% 13% 36% F C F C- F A- D- F F
0.59 40% 12% 17% -24 -2 0.50 24% 0.8 .20 23% .31 59% .18 1.35 66% 57% 30% +4 +2 1.14 56% 1.2 .68 18% .35 81% .29
Nov
6		 Texas A&M D B- A+ B- A- 35% 33% 33% D- B C+ B B- F A+ F A F+ F F+ D D- 39% 7% 54% C+ D- A+ F D F F B+ F
0.91 60% 50% 36% +5 -2 1.09 30% 1.0 .30 30% .46 60% .28 1.35 73% 50% 39% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.7 .39 10% .53 70% .38
Nov
12		 Samford C+ C+ F+ A+ A 39% 36% 25% D+ A- F D- F A C F D+ F A F C+ C+ 37% 8% 55% F C B F F C- F C F
1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20 1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44
Nov
15		 Texas St. F+ C- A F D 47% 29% 24% D- D C F D F A+ F A+ C- D C+ B- D+ 43% 22% 35% D- D+ C F F A F C+ F
0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33 1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44
Nov
20		 Vanderbilt B- A B+ A+ A+ 20% 50% 30% F A+ D- F F C+ A+ F A F F F C D- 35% 10% 55% D D- F C+ F C- C C+ C
0.99 67% 43% 50% +12 -5 1.15 21% 0.3 .06 19% .48 66% .31 1.46 77% 67% 35% +11 +1 1.26 49% 1.2 .57 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
6		 Sam Houston St. F F+ F F F 41% 19% 41% C+ F C- C- C- D A+ B+ A+ B B- A+ A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% F A C B- B- C+ F C F
0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33 1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35
Dec
14		 Minnesota F C- C+ F F+ 33% 31% 37% D+ F+ D- F F+ F C A+ A- F+ F A+ F F 29% 8% 63% C- F C+ C+ C+ C- F D+ F
0.76 56% 40% 17% -10 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23 1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31
Dec
17		 North Carolina St. C+ D+ C+ F F+ 43% 15% 43% B- D- A- A- A B B A A- F B F F F 30% 11% 58% C+ F+ F C+ F D F F F
1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26 1.52 56% 67% 45% +13 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36
Dec
22		 Abilene Christian D- A F F D 57% 20% 24% B- D+ F A+ D+ B F D F D- F A+ A- D 41% 20% 39% D D B+ F D- C+ F F F
0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23 1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40
Jan
3		 Southern F A F+ F F 30% 34% 36% F F F A+ C- D- A+ B- A+ C- F F D+ F 37% 29% 33% C F A+ F C D+ F A- F
0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41 1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31
Jan
5		 Grambling St. D- F D+ F F 34% 30% 36% F F D+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ D- F F A F F 25% 18% 57% B- F F D- F F+ F A- F
0.96 41% 33% 28% -10 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20 1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F D- C- F F 52% 21% 27% C F F+ D- F C- B- D- C D F A+ D F 44% 18% 38% F F B B- B- F+ B B+ B+
0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27 1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19
Jan
12		 Mississippi Valley C D F A+ B+ 31% 10% 60% C+ B+ D- B- D F F C F A- A A+ B- A+ 47% 31% 22% F A F F F A- D A+ A
1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17 0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12
Jan
17		 Alcorn St. D+ F+ A F+ F+ 62% 22% 16% C+ D- F+ C- F+ A A+ F A+ D D A A+ B 46% 9% 46% F C+ D+ C C- D F F F
1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38 1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39
Jan
19		 Jackson St. B- A+ B F+ B- 41% 9% 50% B B B- F D C B+ D+ B- F F F D- F 38% 24% 38% D F C C C F F F F
1.22 83% 40% 29% +6 +2 1.18 38% 0.8 .31 15% .39 71% .27 1.29 74% 58% 37% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.0 .27 14% .45 86% .38
Jan
24		 Alabama A&M A B+ F A+ A 37% 24% 39% D A- D A- C A+ A- B A- D- C+ F F F 42% 24% 33% D+ F B- D- C C+ D+ A C+
1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30 1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23
Jan
27		 Alabama St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C A+ A- F C B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% F A+ C- F+ D F F A+ F
1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35 0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27
Jan
31		 Prairie View D F B- B+ D 42% 28% 30% D D C A+ A C+ A- F C F F+ B+ B D+ 35% 23% 42% F+ D C- F D F D+ D- D
1.05 48% 43% 40% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.5 .53 17% .44 63% .28 1.14 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.2 .29 9% .37 80% .30
Feb
7		 Florida A&M F+ F A+ A+ C 46% 26% 28% D+ C- C- F F F F B- F B+ A C- C+ C+ 30% 26% 44% B- B- F A+ A A- F C+ F
0.97 38% 67% 46% +4 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16 0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29
Feb
9		 Bethune-Cookman F+ F B- F F 31% 27% 42% F F D D+ D- C A+ B A+ C- B+ A+ F B+ 31% 35% 33% A+ A- F F F C- F B- F
0.93 44% 43% 18% -13 -1 0.73 27% 1.1 .29 15% .46 76% .35 1.06 50% 17% 41% -6 -2 0.84 40% 1.2 .47 18% .57 66% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Grambling St. B- A D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% B- A+ F A+ B D A+ F+ A F F F C F 37% 10% 53% F+ F B+ A+ A D F+ B D
1.17 71% 33% 47% +14 +1 1.33 23% 1.8 .42 21% .49 67% .33 1.12 68% 60% 33% +6 +1 1.16 23% 0.7 .16 18% .40 70% .28
Feb
16		 Southern D- C+ C+ D+ D+ 45% 20% 35% B- D+ D- D D- D- F B- F C A+ F F C- 38% 21% 40% D- D+ B B B C C+ C C+
1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19 1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21
Feb
19		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B- C+ A+ B- B+ 33% 22% 45% D- B F A+ C- A- F A+ F B+ B D+ D+ D+ 26% 21% 53% C+ C- C- A+ A+ C- F A+ D
1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13 0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.8 16.9 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 7.5 21.1 28.7 3rd
4th 0.4 18.0 4.3 22.7 4th
5th 0.0 4.4 12.8 0.3 17.5 5th
6th 0.1 7.5 1.4 9.0 6th
7th 0.5 2.2 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.9 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.5 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.0 14.6 40.6 42.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 42.8% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0 36.8
10-8 40.6% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 4.6 36.0
9-9 14.6% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 1.4 13.3
8-10 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 16.0 88.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.5% 100.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.1%
Lose Out 0.3%