Jackson St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#327
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#306
Pace71.5#94
Improvement-0.2#214

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#330
First Shot-6.8#344
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#120
Layup/Dunks-3.2#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#315
Freethrows-2.4#336
Improvement-0.8#302

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#276
First Shot-4.6#316
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#78
Layups/Dunks-0.3#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#338
Freethrows-1.5#289
Improvement+0.5#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.7% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 90.9% 69.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.2%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 31 - 11
Quad 410 - 911 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 218   @ Abilene Christian L 56-65 18%     0 - 1 -8.6 -21.1 +13.1
  Nov 12, 2022 235   @ Tulsa L 79-85 21%     0 - 2 -7.0 -4.5 -1.8
  Nov 20, 2022 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 91-94 42%     0 - 3 -10.4 +6.7 -17.0
  Nov 23, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 68-78 4%     0 - 4 +1.7 -2.4 +4.5
  Nov 25, 2022 21   @ Indiana L 51-90 2%     0 - 5 -22.5 -15.4 -6.4
  Nov 29, 2022 297   @ Miami (OH) L 78-95 32%     0 - 6 -21.6 +4.3 -26.9
  Dec 03, 2022 167   @ SMU W 69-68 13%     1 - 6 +3.8 +0.8 +3.1
  Dec 06, 2022 15   @ TCU L 51-78 1%     1 - 7 -9.6 -16.1 +8.5
  Dec 11, 2022 108   @ Akron L 72-85 8%     1 - 8 -6.6 +5.0 -11.9
  Dec 14, 2022 55   Mississippi St. L 59-69 5%     1 - 9 -0.5 -0.1 -1.1
  Dec 17, 2022 53   Texas Tech L 52-102 5%     1 - 10 -40.2 -20.4 -14.8
  Dec 20, 2022 2   @ Alabama L 64-84 1%     1 - 11 +1.8 -4.6 +8.7
  Dec 22, 2022 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-80 10%     1 - 12 -6.4 -1.2 -5.2
  Jan 02, 2023 289   @ Alcorn St. W 67-66 30%     2 - 12 1 - 0 -3.1 -9.7 +6.6
  Jan 07, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 61-58 74%     3 - 12 2 - 0 -13.1 -10.6 -2.1
  Jan 09, 2023 347   Alabama A&M W 72-64 70%     4 - 12 3 - 0 -6.8 -7.2 +0.2
  Jan 14, 2023 287   @ Prairie View L 50-59 30%     4 - 13 3 - 1 -13.0 -22.7 +10.0
  Jan 16, 2023 314   @ Texas Southern L 82-84 35%     4 - 14 3 - 2 -7.5 +2.4 -9.7
  Jan 21, 2023 354   Bethune-Cookman W 70-66 76%     5 - 14 4 - 2 -12.8 -15.7 +2.7
  Jan 23, 2023 358   Florida A&M W 59-58 80%     6 - 14 5 - 2 -17.3 -13.8 -3.5
  Jan 28, 2023 240   @ Grambling St. L 66-78 22%     6 - 15 5 - 3 -13.4 +2.9 -17.8
  Jan 30, 2023 233   @ Southern L 62-73 21%     6 - 16 5 - 4 -12.0 -6.7 -5.6
  Feb 04, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 06, 2023 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M W 65-62 62%    
  Feb 13, 2023 354   @ Bethune-Cookman W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 289   Alcorn St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 314   Texas Southern W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 27, 2023 287   Prairie View W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 02, 2023 331   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 04, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.4 0.9 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.3 7.3 2.4 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 8.6 14.1 5.4 0.5 0.0 29.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 6.3 11.7 3.4 0.1 21.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 7.9 2.4 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.9 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.2 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.0 8.7 17.1 23.4 23.3 15.7 6.8 1.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 29.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.3% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 1.2
13-5 6.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 6.5
12-6 15.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 15.2
11-7 23.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 22.9
10-8 23.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 23.2
9-9 17.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.0
8-10 8.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-11 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 6.6% 16.0 6.6
Lose Out 0.1%