Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #330
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #229
Pace 79.0 #17
Improvement +5.9 #2

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #282 C- C D D C-
Defense #346 D+ F D- D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.12 #228 -0.2 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #106 0.72 #216 +1.0 #128
Three Pointers 37% #277 1.03 #164 -2.0 #253
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #207 -1.2 #206
Freethrows 16.2 #243 79% #29 12.7 #174
Second Chance 28.0% #259 0.92 #313 0.26 #301
Turnovers 18.7% #297
Total Offense -3.9 #282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.21 #248 -2.9 #271
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.61 #23 +3.2 #9
Three Pointers 44% #110 1.08 #275 -2.8 #290
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #260 -2.5 #258
Freethrows 22.2 #346 76% #303 16.8 #14
Second Chance 34.2% #300 1.13 #281 0.39 #313
Turnovers 14.6% #297
Total Defense -6.5 #346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #235 1.9% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #196 2.9% #239
Possession Length 16.1 #78 16.1 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #109 0.13 #52
Improvement +5.5 #4 +0.4 #156

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.7% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.4% 16.0% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 80.8% 56.3%
Conference Champion 7.7% 13.0% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four4.1% 4.9% 3.5%
First Round2.3% 2.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 411 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 47 @Washington L 50-94 2%     -20.9   0 - 1 -30.1 -18.7 -9.5
  Thu, Nov 6 243 @Portland L 74-83 20%     -13.8   0 - 2 -10.7 -9.8 +0.5
  Sat, Nov 8 123 @Loyola Marymount L 72-94 8%     -9.5   0 - 3 -16.7 +3.2 -19.6
  Tue, Nov 11 49 @Oklahoma L 69-95 2%     -9.5   0 - 4 -12.3 +0.7 -13.1
  Sat, Nov 15 7 @Vanderbilt L 75-104 0.5%    -16.2   0 - 5 -5.5 +8.1 -11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 28 @SMU L 60-106 1%     -24.7   0 - 6 -28.7 -14.8 -7.9
  Thu, Nov 20 160 @Marshall L 70-98 11%     -5.4   0 - 7 -25.2 -7.9 -14.9
  Sun, Nov 23 101 @Miami (OH) L 84-111 5%     -19.5   0 - 8 -18.9 +1.9 -17.0
  Wed, Dec 3 186 @Illinois-Chicago W 63-62 14%     4.6   1 - 8 +2.3 -10.3 +12.5
  Sat, Dec 6 103 @DePaul L 72-76 5%     0.9   1 - 9 +3.8 +2.3 +1.8
  Wed, Dec 10 81 @Tulsa L 84-117 4%     -16.3   1 - 10 -22.9 +4.9 -24.7
  Sat, Jan 3 299 Alabama A&M W 95-83 51%     3.6   2 - 10 1 - 0 +1.2 +26.6 -24.2
  Mon, Jan 5 298 Alabama St. W 90-79 51%     5.7   3 - 10 2 - 0 +0.3 +4.1 -4.5
  Sat, Jan 10 335 @Texas Southern L 80-83 40%    
  Mon, Jan 12 310 @Prairie View L 83-88 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 340 Florida A&M W 83-79 65%    
  Mon, Jan 19 277 Bethune-Cookman L 82-83 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 @Southern L 79-87 23%    
  Mon, Jan 26 246 @Grambling St. L 73-82 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 82-72 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 345 Alcorn St. W 86-81 67%    
  Mon, Feb 9 342 Jackson St. W 84-80 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 298 @Alabama St. L 80-86 30%    
  Mon, Feb 16 299 @Alabama A&M L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 335 Texas Southern W 83-80 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 310 Prairie View W 86-85 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 85-69 93%    
  Tue, Mar 3 342 @Jackson St. L 81-83 43%    
  Thu, Mar 5 345 @Alcorn St. L 83-84 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 2.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 1.0 6.7 3.9 0.3 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 4.6 5.9 0.7 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 7.3 1.7 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.7 5.6 4.0 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 3.0 5.4 0.7 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.6 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.7 9.8 15.0 17.6 16.7 13.8 9.8 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 93.7% 0.7    0.6 0.0
14-4 85.3% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 52.7% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 19.2% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 3.5 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.8% 20.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 14.7% 14.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 2.4% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.0
13-5 5.2% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 4.6
12-6 9.8% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 8.9
11-7 13.8% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.0 12.8
10-8 16.7% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 1.0 15.7
9-9 17.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 17.0
8-10 15.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.8
7-11 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 5.7% 5.7
5-13 2.4% 2.4
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 4.5 95.5 0.0%