Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -10.9 330
Results Rating -7.3 279
Consistency 0.15 204
Pace 72.8 70
Improvement -0.3 201

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 289 C- D- D+ C+ D+
Defense D- 336 D+ F+ D+ F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 240 C- 55% 247 -2.2 258
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 140 D+ 36% 257 +1.2 113
Three Pointers 38% 234 C 34% 166 -1.2 222
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 286 C- -1.4 227
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 246
Second Chance D 25.4% 316 D 0.92 324 D- 0.23 335
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.6% 287
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 247
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 289
Freethrows C 0.31 178 B- 75% 108 C+ 0.23 151
Total Offense D+ -4.5 289

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 214 C 10.7% 155
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 78 B- 4.0% 109
Three Pointers B- 87% 118 C+ 0.7% 131
Total C 56% 161 C+ 5.2% 128

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 D+ 61% 274 +3.0 284
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 308 C- 39% 235 -1.4 77
Three Pointers 42% 126 C 34% 166 +0.6 213
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 308 C- +1.4 238
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 252
Second Chance F+ 35.7% 344 D 1.14 323 F+ 0.41 353
Turnovers from Steals C 9.2% 202
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 306
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 256
Freethrows D- 0.37 341 D- 76% 339 F+ 0.28 355
Total Defense D- -6.4 336

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 345 C 10.8% 179
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 275 C- 3.8% 242
Three Pointers D 89% 318 C- 0.6% 216
Total D- 64% 333 C 5.3% 192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 110 17.2 161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 248 0.12 42
Consistency 0.14 285 0.13 245
Improvement +1.2 122 -1.5 266

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 343 327 311
Results Rating Rank 313 291 257
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 5 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 6% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2% 2% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 6% 5%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 11 - 7
Quad 30 - 31 - 10
Quad 411 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0% 0 - 1 F -30 F -21 F F F D- -7 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 224 @Portland L 74 - 83 17% -10  4% 0 - 2 D -10 F -12 F C- F B +4 C+ B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 148 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 10% -9  8% 0 - 3 F -18 C -0 B- D+ D F -18 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 51 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 2% -9  6% 0 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ C F F+ -9 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 16 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -14  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 B- +4 B D B F -10 A- F D-
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -24  1% 0 - 6 F -28 F -18 D- F D- D+ -5 F+ A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 186 @Marshall L 70 - 98 13% -5  41% 0 - 7 F -27 F -14 F F+ F F -10 F A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 87 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 4% -16  9% 0 - 8 F+ -18 C -0 F A- A- F -14 F C F+
 Wed, Dec 3 106 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 6% +5  86% 1 - 8 B- +8 F+ -9 C D+ C- A+ +17 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 89 @DePaul L 72 - 76 4% +1  51% 1 - 9 B- +5 C -0 A F D- B+ +5 A+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 64 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 3% -16  6% 1 - 10 F -21 C+ +3 B+ C+ F+ F -21 F F D
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 54% +4  51% 2 - 10 1 - 0 C +0 A+ +23 A A+ C F -22 C- F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 314 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 56% +6  86% 3 - 10 2 - 0 C -1 B- +5 B- D D- D- -7 D+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 307 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 31% +8  85% 4 - 10 3 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- F B- B+ +6 A C D+
 Mon, Jan 12 331 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 39% -6  10% 4 - 11 3 - 1 F -20 F -17 F F D C- -3 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 318 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 58% -1  27% 4 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -17 D- -8 F+ B- D F+ -9 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 239 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 36% +2  52% 4 - 13 3 - 3 D- -12 D -4 B- F+ F D- -7 B F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Southern W 75 - 74 24% -2  21% 5 - 13 4 - 3 C- -2 C- -1 D- C- B- C- -2 B F B
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78 - 70 81% +7  91% 6 - 13 5 - 3 D- -12 D -6 F F B- D- -7 F+ D- C
 Wed, Feb 4 299 @Grambling St. W 67 - 64 29% +4  75% 7 - 13 6 - 3 C- -2 D -4 F C+ C B- +2 A- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 345 Alcorn St. W 84 - 77 68% +10  99% 8 - 13 7 - 3 D -9 B- +5 A C+ F F -14 F F+ F+
 Mon, Feb 9 344 Jackson St. W 84 - 63 67% +10  82% 9 - 13 8 - 3 B- +6 B +6 A- F A C+ +1 A F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 314 @Alabama St. L 61 - 79 33% -7  9% 9 - 14 8 - 4 F -24 F -18 D F F D -6 D- B- D-
 Mon, Feb 16 309 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 82 31% -4  11% 9 - 15 8 - 5 F -18 C- -1 D- D- A F -18 F F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 19 307 Texas Southern L 64 - 83 53% -2  34% 9 - 16 8 - 6 F -31 F -16 D F D F -15 F F F
 Sat, Feb 21 331 Prairie View W 84 - 82 62% +3  72% 10 - 16 9 - 6 D- -12 B- +5 B+ D+ A- F -17 D F A
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 67 93%
 Tue, Mar 3 344 @Jackson St. L 80 - 82 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 345 @Alcorn St. L 77 - 78 46%
Totals 12 - 17 11 - 7 -11 D+ -4 F C- D+ D- -6 C B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D+ C C- 36% 41% 38% D+ C- D D D- D+ C B- C+ D- D+ C- C C- 41% 16% 42% D D+ F+ D F+ D+ D- D- F+
1.02 55% 36% 34% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.9 .23 18% .31 75% .23 1.18 61% 39% 34% +1 +1 1.06 36% 1.1 .41 16% .37 76% .23
Nov
3		 Washington F F F D- F 20% 33% 46% D- F B F F F D- D+ D- D- F+ A+ F C- 29% 21% 50% C- C- F B- F A- F B- F
0.68 45% 17% 28% -14 -3 0.69 31% 0.4 .12 22% .21 67% .14 1.28 71% 20% 42% +6 -1 1.13 52% 1.1 .55 19% .56 73% .41
Nov
6		 Portland F D- F D- F 36% 18% 46% C F F+ A+ C- F A+ A+ A+ B D- D+ A+ B- 42% 9% 49% F+ C+ A- D+ B B+ F D F
0.90 50% 11% 30% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.3 .32 23% .43 89% .38 1.01 68% 40% 23% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.3 .29 23% .50 78% .39
Nov
8		 Loyola Marymount C B+ C D+ B 40% 30% 30% C- B- C+ F D+ D F A+ D+ F F A+ F F 23% 11% 66% D- F D B+ C F F A+ F+
1.02 62% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 18% .19 100% .19 1.33 83% 0% 49% +16 0 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 8% .43 57% .25
Nov
11		 Oklahoma D+ D+ D- C- D+ 31% 30% 39% D+ D+ B F+ C F C A C+ F+ C- C+ D+ C+ 38% 10% 52% F+ C F C- F C- F+ C F+
0.99 53% 31% 33% -4 -2 0.91 36% 0.9 .31 22% .27 80% .22 1.36 60% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.12 53% 1.3 .69 13% .39 75% .30
Nov
15		 Vanderbilt B- F C+ A+ B 31% 25% 43% C- B D D+ D B A C- A- F C- C+ A- A 34% 14% 52% C- A- F F F D- F B- F
1.01 38% 38% 41% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.9 .18 17% .42 73% .31 1.40 65% 38% 30% -1 +1 1.02 49% 1.5 .72 9% .49 76% .37
Nov
18		 SMU F A+ F F F+ 39% 23% 39% B- D- D+ F F D- B- F D+ D+ F D+ F F+ 36% 19% 46% D F+ A B- A- C F D+ F
0.75 73% 15% 18% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.2 .04 21% .28 56% .16 1.32 76% 45% 44% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.0 .30 15% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Marshall F B+ C- F F+ 17% 50% 33% F F F D+ F+ F A B+ A F F B F F 32% 26% 42% C F B- A+ A+ D- F+ F F
0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33 1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26
Nov
23		 Miami (OH) C F C F+ F 44% 21% 34% B- F D A+ A- A- A- A+ A+ F D+ C- F F 56% 9% 35% F F C- C+ C F+ F F F
1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30 1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39
Dec
3		 Illinois-Chicago F+ B- F C C 46% 18% 36% B- C D- B+ D+ C- F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 61% 12% 27% F A+ D A B A+ F C F+
0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11 0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29
Dec
6		 DePaul C C- A+ A A+ 31% 33% 35% D- A F F+ F D- F A+ F B+ A- A A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% F A+ A F D F F C- F
0.97 53% 56% 42% +9 -2 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 23% .12 86% .11 1.03 50% 29% 13% -17 +1 0.71 24% 1.7 .41 9% .61 71% .43
Dec
10		 Tulsa C+ A+ D+ F+ B+ 39% 17% 44% C+ B+ C- B+ C+ F+ A- A+ A+ F D B F F 49% 5% 45% D- F D- F F D F D F
1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29 1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46
Jan
3		 Alabama A&M A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% D- A A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ F D B- A+ C 44% 20% 36% F+ C- F D F D+ F F F
1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39 1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43
Jan
5		 Alabama St. B- F A+ A+ B- 48% 16% 36% B- B- B- F D D- A+ A A+ D- C- B- C D+ 41% 27% 32% C D+ A- F C D- F D F
1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58 1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30
Jan
10		 Texas Southern D+ A F B B- 44% 18% 38% C B- F F F B- F D+ F B+ B C+ A+ A+ 52% 21% 27% F A C- C+ C D+ F C+ F
1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19 0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27
Jan
12		 Prairie View F F F F+ F 35% 23% 42% D F F+ F F D B F D+ C- A F+ F F 33% 38% 29% B- D- F A+ C F F A+ D-
0.88 41% 18% 30% -13 -1 0.75 30% 0.8 .25 20% .42 61% .25 1.05 44% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.8 .26 10% .50 61% .30
Jan
17		 Florida A&M D- B D- F D- 33% 28% 40% F F+ F A+ B- D B- A B+ F+ F A+ C F 38% 19% 43% D F F F F B+ F C F
1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30 1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32
Jan
19		 Bethune-Cookman D C A+ C B 46% 24% 30% D+ B- F C F+ F A+ C- A+ D- B- A+ A+ A 61% 13% 26% F B F F F B+ F D- F
1.04 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.1 .26 22% .48 70% .34 1.10 54% 17% 25% -9 +3 0.89 42% 1.3 .53 22% .66 73% .48
Jan
24		 Southern C- F+ C- C F+ 31% 18% 51% C- D- F A+ C- B- A+ D A C- F D+ A+ B 30% 28% 41% B- B F F F B F F F
1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35 1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36
Jan
31		 Mississippi Valley D C- F A D- 37% 37% 26% F F F F+ F B- A+ D A+ D- D+ F A+ F+ 38% 42% 20% C- F+ A- F D- C F F F
1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40 0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39
Feb
4		 Grambling St. D D+ F F+ F 39% 24% 37% D- F D- A+ C+ C B+ C- B B- D F A+ A 40% 19% 40% C- A- F C+ D- D- B+ C- B
0.99 56% 27% 29% -6 0 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 19% .38 71% .27 0.95 62% 50% 10% -11 0 0.81 37% 0.9 .34 18% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Alcorn St. B- D+ A A+ A 45% 14% 40% C A C- B+ C+ F A+ A- A+ F C+ C+ F F 40% 24% 36% C- F B+ F F+ F+ C+ F D+
1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37 1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20
Feb
9		 Jackson St. B D A+ A+ A+ 37% 27% 37% D- A- D- F+ F A C+ A B C+ A+ D A+ A- 18% 37% 45% A+ A F F F C- C- A+ B-
1.28 56% 54% 50% +12 -1 1.24 30% 0.9 .27 11% .36 81% .29 0.96 33% 42% 22% -11 -4 0.73 37% 1.3 .49 18% .28 67% .19
Feb
14		 Alabama St. F B F C- D 29% 20% 51% D D F F F F A+ D+ A+ D D- D B+ D- 49% 19% 32% F D- F A+ B- D- D- F F
0.84 67% 25% 33% -1 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36 1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29
Feb
16		 Alabama A&M C- D F A D- 44% 18% 38% C D- B- F D- A D B D+ F D- B- F F 39% 22% 39% D F F+ D- F+ D+ F F F
1.10 55% 11% 42% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.7 .24 11% .28 75% .21 1.29 63% 33% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.1 .35 16% .60 88% .52
Feb
19		 Texas Southern F F+ C B- D+ 26% 21% 53% F+ D D- F F D B+ F C F D+ F D F 33% 22% 45% C F B- F F F A+ F A
0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27 1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13
Feb
21		 Prairie View B- A+ A+ F+ A- 39% 20% 41% C- B+ F A+ D+ A- D+ C+ C- F C- F A+ D- 36% 30% 34% D+ D F F F A F F F
1.24 79% 60% 30% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.5 .36 15% .35 75% .26 1.21 56% 62% 20% -1 -1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 21% .52 89% .46



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.9 30.8 19.6 51.4 2nd
3rd 7.3 15.6 22.9 3rd
4th 0.0 15.6 15.6 4th
5th 0.4 7.0 7.4 5th
6th 1.1 0.7 1.9 6th
7th 0.9 0.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.5 31.5 46.4 19.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 19.6% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 1.7 17.9
11-7 46.4% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 2.9 43.5
10-8 31.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 1.3 30.2
9-9 2.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 2.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 94.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.8%
Lose Out 1.6%