Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -11.5 331
Results Rating -8.6 306
Consistency 0.16 202
Pace 72.7 70
Improvement -1.2 231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 304 D+ D- D+ C+ D+
Defense D- 341 D+ F+ C- F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 C- 56% 238 -2.2 261
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 140 D+ 36% 259 +1.2 113
Three Pointers 38% 239 C 34% 205 -1.6 239
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 290 C- -1.8 245
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 262
Second Chance D 25.4% 316 D- 0.91 331 D- 0.23 337
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.5% 282
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 258
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 283
Freethrows C 0.31 177 C+ 74% 125 C+ 0.23 150
Total Offense D -5.0 304

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 189 C 10.8% 166
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 76 B- 3.9% 107
Three Pointers B- 87% 116 C+ 0.7% 130
Total C 56% 158 C+ 5.2% 134


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 115 D+ 61% 275 +3.0 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 305 D+ 41% 280 -1.1 98
Three Pointers 42% 130 C 34% 173 +0.5 212
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 298 C- +1.6 247
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 259
Second Chance F+ 35.8% 343 D 1.14 317 F+ 0.41 353
Turnovers from Steals C 9.3% 193
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 306
Turnovers C- 15.6% 244
Freethrows D- 0.37 335 D- 76% 339 F+ 0.28 350
Total Defense D- -6.5 341

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 346 C 10.8% 181
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 231 D+ 3.5% 263
Three Pointers D 89% 320 C- 0.8% 183
Total D- 63% 331 C 5.3% 189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 103 17.1 150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 260 0.12 39
Consistency 0.14 288 0.13 207
Improvement +0.4 166 -1.5 265

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 346 332 320
Results Rating Rank 333 307 272
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 5% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 5% 5%
First Round2% 2% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 11 - 7
Quad 30 - 31 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 52 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0% 0 - 1 F -30 F -21 F F F D- -8 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 216 @Portland L 74 - 83 14% -10  4% 0 - 2 D -9 F -12 F C- F B +4 C+ B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 154 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 9% -9  8% 0 - 3 F -19 C- -1 B- D+ D F -18 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 46 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 2% -9  6% 0 - 4 D -11 D+ -3 D+ C F F+ -8 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 17 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -14  0% 0 - 5 D+ -8 B- +4 B- D B- F -10 A- F F+
 Tue, Nov 18 38 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -24  1% 0 - 6 F -30 F -19 D- F D- D+ -5 F+ A- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 186 @Marshall L 70 - 98 12% -5  41% 0 - 7 F -27 F -14 F F+ F F -10 F A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 87 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 4% -16  9% 0 - 8 F+ -18 C -0 F A- A- F -14 F C F+
 Wed, Dec 3 114 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 6% +5  86% 1 - 8 B- +7 F+ -9 C C- C A+ +17 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 85 @DePaul L 72 - 76 4% +1  51% 1 - 9 B- +6 C +1 A F D- B +5 A+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 64 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 3% -16  6% 1 - 10 F -21 C+ +3 B+ C+ F+ F -21 F F D
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 52% +4  51% 2 - 10 1 - 0 C +0 A+ +22 A- A+ C F -21 C F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 312 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 53% +6  86% 3 - 10 2 - 0 C -1 B- +4 B- D F+ D -6 C- C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 301 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 27% +8  85% 4 - 10 3 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 B- F B- B+ +6 A C D+
 Mon, Jan 12 324 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 35% -6  10% 4 - 11 3 - 1 F -19 F -16 F F D C- -3 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 54% -1  27% 4 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ B- D F+ -9 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 237 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 34% +2  52% 4 - 13 3 - 3 D- -12 D -4 B- F+ F D- -7 B F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 283 @Southern W 75 - 74 23% -2  21% 5 - 13 4 - 3 C- -3 C- -1 D- C- B- C -1 B F B
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78 - 70 78% +7  91% 6 - 13 5 - 3 D- -12 D -5 F+ F B- D -6 F+ D- C
 Wed, Feb 4 306 @Grambling St. W 67 - 64 28% +4  75% 7 - 13 6 - 3 C- -3 D -4 F C+ C B- +2 A- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 348 Alcorn St. W 84 - 77 67% +10  99% 8 - 13 7 - 3 D -9 B +6 A B- F F -14 F F+ F+
 Mon, Feb 9 346 Jackson St. W 84 - 63 67% +10  82% 9 - 13 8 - 3 B- +5 B +6 A- F A C+ +1 A F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 312 @Alabama St. L 61 - 79 30% -7  9% 9 - 14 8 - 4 F -24 F -18 D- F F D -5 D- B- D
 Mon, Feb 16 309 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 82 30% -4  11% 9 - 15 8 - 5 F -18 C- -2 D- D- A F -18 F F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 19 301 Texas Southern L 64 - 83 49% -2  34% 9 - 16 8 - 6 F -30 F -15 D F D F -16 F F F
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Prairie View W 84 - 82 58% +3  72% 10 - 16 9 - 6 D- -11 B- +6 A- D+ A- F -17 D F A
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley L 69 - 70 90% +2  55% 10 - 17 9 - 7 F -27 F -16 F F C F -11 F F B+
 Tue, Mar 3 346 @Jackson St. L 79 - 81 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 348 @Alcorn St. L 76 - 77 45%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 8 -12 D -5 D- C- D+ D- -6 C C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- D+ C C- 36% 41% 38% D+ D+ D D- D- D+ C C+ C+ D- D+ D+ C C- 41% 17% 42% D D+ F+ D F+ C- D- D- F+
1.01 56% 36% 34% -2 -1 0.97 25% 0.9 .23 18% .31 74% .23 1.18 61% 41% 34% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.1 .41 16% .37 76% .23
Nov
3		 Washington F F F F+ F 20% 33% 46% D- F B F F F D D+ D D- F+ A+ F C- 29% 21% 50% D+ C- F B- F A- F B- F
0.68 45% 17% 28% -14 -3 0.69 31% 0.4 .12 22% .21 67% .14 1.28 71% 20% 42% +6 -1 1.13 52% 1.1 .55 19% .56 73% .41
Nov
6		 Portland F D- F D- F 36% 18% 46% C F F+ A+ C- F A+ A+ A+ B D- D+ A+ B 42% 9% 49% F+ C+ A- D B B+ F D F
0.90 50% 11% 30% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.3 .32 23% .43 89% .38 1.01 68% 40% 23% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.3 .29 23% .50 78% .39
Nov
8		 Loyola Marymount C- B+ C D+ B 40% 30% 30% C- B- C+ F D+ D F A+ D+ F F A+ F F 23% 11% 66% D- F D B+ C F F A+ F+
1.02 62% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 18% .19 100% .19 1.33 83% 0% 49% +16 0 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 8% .43 57% .25
Nov
11		 Oklahoma D+ D+ D- C- D+ 31% 30% 39% D+ D+ B F+ C F C A- C+ F+ C- C+ D+ C+ 38% 10% 52% F+ C F C- F C- F C F+
0.99 53% 31% 33% -4 -2 0.91 36% 0.9 .31 22% .27 80% .22 1.36 60% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.12 53% 1.3 .69 13% .39 75% .30
Nov
15		 Vanderbilt B- F C+ A+ B 31% 25% 43% C- B- D D+ D B- A C- A- F C- C+ A- A 34% 14% 52% C- A- F F F F+ F B- F
1.01 38% 38% 41% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.9 .18 17% .42 73% .31 1.40 65% 38% 30% -1 +1 1.02 49% 1.5 .72 9% .49 76% .37
Nov
18		 SMU F A+ F F F+ 39% 23% 39% B- D- D+ F F D- C+ F D D+ F D+ F F+ 36% 19% 46% D F+ A C+ A- C+ F D+ F
0.75 73% 15% 18% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.2 .04 21% .28 56% .16 1.32 76% 45% 44% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.0 .30 15% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Marshall F B+ C- F F+ 17% 50% 33% F F F D+ F+ F A B+ A F F B F F 32% 26% 42% C F B- A+ A+ D- F+ F F
0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33 1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26
Nov
23		 Miami (OH) C F C F+ F 44% 21% 34% B- F D A+ A- A- A- A+ A+ F C- C- F F 56% 9% 35% F F C- C+ C F+ F F F
1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30 1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39
Dec
3		 Illinois-Chicago F+ B- F C C- 46% 18% 36% B- C D- B+ C- C F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 61% 12% 27% F A+ D A B- A+ F C F+
0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11 0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29
Dec
6		 DePaul C C- A+ A+ A+ 31% 33% 35% D- A F D- F D- F A+ F B A- A A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% F+ A+ A F D F F C- F
0.97 53% 56% 42% +8 -2 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 23% .12 86% .11 1.03 50% 29% 13% -17 +1 0.71 24% 1.7 .41 9% .61 71% .43
Dec
10		 Tulsa C+ A+ D+ F+ B+ 39% 17% 44% C+ B+ C- B+ C+ F+ A- A+ A+ F D B F F 49% 5% 45% D- F D- F F D F D F
1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29 1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46
Jan
3		 Alabama A&M A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% D- A- A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ F D B- A+ C+ 44% 20% 36% F+ C F D F C- F F F
1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39 1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43
Jan
5		 Alabama St. B- F A+ A+ B- 48% 16% 36% B- B- B F D F+ A+ A A+ D C- B- C D+ 41% 27% 32% C+ C- A- F C D- F D F
1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58 1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30
Jan
10		 Texas Southern D+ A F B B 44% 18% 38% C B- F F F B- F D+ F B+ B C+ A+ A+ 52% 21% 27% F A C- C+ C D+ F C+ F
1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19 0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27
Jan
12		 Prairie View F F F F+ F 35% 23% 42% D F D- F F D B F D+ C- A F+ F F+ 33% 38% 29% B- D- F A+ C F F A+ D-
0.88 41% 18% 30% -13 -1 0.75 30% 0.8 .25 20% .42 61% .25 1.05 44% 44% 43% +1 -3 1.00 31% 0.8 .26 10% .50 61% .30
Jan
17		 Florida A&M D- B D- F D- 33% 28% 40% F+ F+ F A+ B- D B- A B+ F+ F A+ C- F 38% 19% 43% D F F F F B+ F C F
1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30 1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32
Jan
19		 Bethune-Cookman D C A+ C B 46% 24% 30% D B- F C F+ F A+ C- A+ D- B A+ A+ A 61% 13% 26% F B F F F B+ F D- F
1.04 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.1 .26 22% .48 70% .34 1.10 54% 17% 25% -9 +3 0.89 42% 1.3 .53 22% .66 73% .48
Jan
24		 Southern C- F+ C- C F+ 31% 18% 51% C- D- F A+ C- B- A+ D- A C F D+ A+ B 30% 28% 41% B- B F F F B F F F
1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35 1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36
Jan
31		 Mississippi Valley D C- F A D- 37% 37% 26% F F+ F D- F B- A+ D A+ D D+ F A+ F+ 38% 42% 20% C- F+ A- F D- C F F F
1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40 0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39
Feb
4		 Grambling St. D D+ F D- F 39% 24% 37% D- F D- A+ C+ C B+ C- B B- D F A+ A 40% 19% 40% D+ A- F C+ D- D- B+ C- B
0.99 56% 27% 29% -6 0 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 19% .38 71% .27 0.95 62% 50% 10% -11 0 0.81 37% 0.9 .34 18% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Alcorn St. B D+ A A+ A 45% 14% 40% C A C- B+ B- F A+ A- A+ F C+ C F F 40% 24% 36% C- F B F F+ F+ C+ F D+
1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37 1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20
Feb
9		 Jackson St. B D A+ A+ A 37% 27% 37% D- A- D- F+ F A C+ A- B C+ A+ D A+ A- 18% 37% 45% A+ A F F F C- C- A+ B-
1.28 56% 54% 50% +12 -1 1.24 30% 0.9 .27 11% .36 81% .29 0.96 33% 42% 22% -11 -4 0.73 37% 1.3 .49 18% .28 67% .19
Feb
14		 Alabama St. F B F C- D 29% 20% 51% D D- F F F F A+ D+ A+ D D- D+ B+ D- 49% 19% 32% F+ D- F A+ B- D D- F F
0.84 67% 25% 33% -1 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36 1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29
Feb
16		 Alabama A&M C- D F A D- 44% 18% 38% C D- B- F D- A D B D+ F D- B- F F 39% 22% 39% D F F+ D- F+ C- F F F
1.10 55% 11% 42% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.7 .24 11% .28 75% .21 1.29 63% 33% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.1 .35 16% .60 88% .52
Feb
19		 Texas Southern F F+ C B- C- 26% 21% 53% F+ D D- F F D B+ F C F D+ F D F 33% 22% 45% C F B F F F A+ F A
0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27 1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13
Feb
21		 Prairie View B- A+ A+ F+ A 39% 20% 41% C- A- F A+ D+ A- D+ C+ C- F C- F A+ D 36% 30% 34% D+ D F F F A F F F
1.24 79% 60% 30% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.5 .36 15% .35 75% .26 1.21 56% 62% 20% -1 -1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 21% .52 89% .46
Feb
28		 Mississippi Valley F B+ D F F 28% 30% 41% F F D F F C A+ D- A F C- F C+ F 33% 41% 27% C- F F D+ F B+ C- D D+
0.99 69% 36% 21% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.0 .32 17% .52 70% .36 1.00 56% 55% 31% +5 -3 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 24% .28 73% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 3.9 20.4 24.3 2nd
3rd 16.2 16.2 3rd
4th 20.3 20.3 4th
5th 1.5 7.7 9.2 5th
6th 15.4 15.4 6th
7th 14.6 14.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 31.5 48.1 20.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 20.4% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 1.3 19.1
10-8 48.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 2.2 45.9
9-9 31.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 1.3 30.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 16.0 95.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6%
Lose Out 20.5%