Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 238
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 191
Pace 67.7 208
Improvement +2.3 98

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 297 D D C+ D F+
Defense C 154 B- B- F C+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 358 D 52% 315 -7.3 358
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 130 C 38% 160 +3.1 47
Three Pointers 43% 149 C 33% 209 +0.5 160
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.6 341 D+ -2.1 259
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 295
Second Chance D 25.2% 321 D+ 0.94 300 D 0.24 327
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 128
Freethrows D 0.26 319 C 72% 184 D 0.19 309
Total Offense D -4.8 297

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 30% 358 D+ 12.6% 279
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 8% 361 A- 1.5% 11
Three Pointers F+ 73% 353 B- 0.5% 89
Total F 39% 363 B 4.3% 46

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 322 B+ 51% 33 -5.6 31
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 8 D+ 41% 270 +4.6 363
Three Pointers 37% 299 C 34% 207 -1.9 102
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.7 10 C+ -1.2 124
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 84
Second Chance B- 27.6% 77 C 1.03 180 B- 0.28 92
Turnovers F 12.4% 360
Freethrows C 0.30 172 C+ 71% 129 C+ 0.21 158
Total Defense C +0.6 154

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 15 C+ 11.9% 133
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 108 D 2.2% 321
Three Pointers B 79% 52 D+ 0.3% 302
Total A- 45% 14 D+ 4.7% 252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 307 16.1 20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 340 0.13 52
Improvement +2.5 #75 -0.2 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 261 239 207
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 9 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 95% 100% 90%
.500 or above in Conference 82% 100% 64%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 48.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 412 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 284 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 49% +1  52% 0 - 1 D -9 F -14 F D+ F B+ +6 C A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 136 Winthrop W 72 - 66 39% +7  96% 1 - 1 C+ +4 D- -7 B B F A+ +11 A- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 200 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 32% -7  6% 1 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 F A- A D+ -3 B F F
 Fri, Nov 21 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 84% +13  92% 2 - 2 B- +5 C- -2 D D C- B+ +6 A- F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 295 North Dakota W 75 - 58 63% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +9 F -11 C F A+ A+ +19 A+ B- D+
 Sun, Nov 23 99 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 13% -29  0% 3 - 3 F -44 F -30 F F B+ F -10 D- B F
 Sun, Nov 30 307 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 76% +6  95% 4 - 3 C- -5 F -12 F D- C A- +8 B A D
 Wed, Dec 3 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 53% +7  83% 4 - 4 D- -12 D- -7 D+ F B+ D+ -4 C- B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 136 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 20% -1  32% 5 - 4 B +8 A +14 B C A D -5 B F D
 Sat, Dec 13 58 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 7% -19  0% 5 - 5 D -9 D+ -3 C- F A+ D- -6 A- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 174 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 27% -4  21% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -20 F D- C B- +3 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 239 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 39% +1  64% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 D- F A+ B +4 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 130 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 20% +2  63% 7 - 6 B +11 D+ -3 D+ C C A+ +13 A A+ D
 Thu, Jan 1 262 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 67% -3  21% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F B- B+ C- -3 B D D
 Sat, Jan 3 283 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 71% +1  62% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -28 C- -1 F+ A+ D F -28 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 239 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 62% -7  0% 7 - 9 1 - 4 D- -11 F -12 F F+ C C+ +0 C+ D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 174 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 49% -5  17% 8 - 9 2 - 4 C +1 B +5 A D+ B- D+ -3 A D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 173 @Marshall W 85 - 83 27% +5  81% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +9 A+ F+ C D+ -4 D+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 262 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 44% -2  36% 10 - 9 4 - 4 C +1 D+ -4 F F+ D B +5 A C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 225 Texas St. W 72 - 70 59% +3  64% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C- -5 D+ -4 F+ D- A C -1 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 245 Southern Miss W 85 - 67 62% +12  99% 12 - 9 6 - 4 B +11 A- +11 A+ C- F C +0 C A F
 Thu, Jan 29 188 @South Alabama L 48 - 53 30% -0  45% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C- -4 F -19 F F C- A+ +14 A A- F
 Sun, Feb 1 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 79 74% +5  94% 13 - 10 7 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 A- C- C+ F -12 F D+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 140 Arkansas St. L 66 - 70 41% -0  43% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -11 D C+ F B +5 B- A C
 Sat, Feb 7 182 Massachusetts W 94 - 91 3OT 50% -4  17% 14 - 11 C -1 C +0 C+ D- A C- -2 A- D- F
 Thu, Feb 12 303 @Louisiana W 69 - 65 54% +5  94% 15 - 11 8 - 6 C -1 D- -7 D D+ F B+ +6 B C+ D
 Wed, Feb 18 210 James Madison L 65 - 67 56% -0  37% 15 - 12 8 - 7 D+ -8 F -10 D- F A B- +2 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 173 Marshall L 75 - 76 48%
 Tue, Feb 24 283 @Georgia St. L 69 - 70 49%
 Fri, Feb 27 210 @James Madison L 68 - 72 33%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 -4 D -5 F D+ F+ C +1 C C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C C D+ 29% 41% 43% F+ D D D+ D C+ D C D C B+ D+ C C+ 33% 31% 37% A B- B- C B- F C C+ C+
1.02 52% 38% 33% -2 -2 0.95 25% 0.9 .24 16% .26 72% .19 1.08 51% 41% 34% -1 -2 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 12% .30 71% .19
Nov
3		 Western Michigan F C+ C- F F 25% 26% 49% F F F A+ D+ F C+ F D+ B+ B- F A+ C 38% 31% 31% B+ C A+ C A+ B+ F F F
0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19 1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46
Nov
11		 Winthrop D- F F A+ B 35% 15% 50% C+ B C A B F B+ F D+ A+ A D+ B+ A- 44% 19% 37% C+ A- A+ D A+ F+ C A+ A
1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22 0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20
Nov
14		 Jacksonville St. D+ F+ A- F F 32% 21% 47% D F C+ A+ A- A D- A+ C D+ B+ A+ D+ B 47% 14% 39% C B A- F F F D C- D
1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26 1.11 48% 14% 37% -7 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27
Nov
21		 Western Illinois C- F+ F A+ D+ 27% 20% 54% F+ D C+ F D C- C D C- B+ D+ B- A+ B 17% 52% 31% A+ A- D+ F F D- D+ D- D
1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22 0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24
Nov
22		 North Dakota F D+ A+ B C+ 39% 17% 44% D+ C F B- F A+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ A+ 23% 33% 44% A+ A+ C- A- B- D+ F B+ F
1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16 0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34
Nov
23		 Illinois St. F D- C+ F F 17% 40% 43% F F F F F B+ F F F F B+ F F F 25% 34% 41% A+ D- A F B F D F D-
0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05 1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25
Nov
30		 Alabama A&M F F C+ D+ F 30% 36% 34% F F F+ D+ D- C A+ A+ A+ A- A C+ B+ B 32% 34% 34% A- B B A+ A D D A+ C+
0.97 31% 38% 33% -9 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48 0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24
Dec
3		 South Carolina Upstate D- D- F A+ D+ 41% 19% 41% C- D+ D- F F B+ F A- F D+ B- C- C C 47% 22% 31% D+ C- B- A B+ F+ F B- F
0.97 50% 8% 42% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .15 12% .19 77% .14 1.06 52% 38% 33% -3 0 0.97 26% 0.7 .19 14% .52 67% .35
Dec
6		 Winthrop A F A+ A+ B+ 31% 25% 44% D B D- A+ C A A B- A D C- B+ B+ B- 29% 21% 50% A B F C F D F B F
1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32 1.20 57% 30% 29% -6 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40
Dec
13		 Grand Canyon D+ C- D- D+ C 33% 33% 34% D C- D+ F F A+ F F F D- A A D+ B+ 33% 26% 40% A- A- F B- F F C+ F D+
0.90 53% 32% 30% -6 -2 0.86 23% 0.7 .16 6% .13 50% .06 1.21 47% 27% 35% -6 -1 0.88 47% 1.0 .47 7% .32 85% .27
Dec
18		 Appalachian St. F F B- F F 33% 24% 43% D F D+ F+ D- C B F D B- C+ D F F 40% 27% 33% B+ F A A+ A+ B F C F
0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16 1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26
Dec
20		 Old Dominion D+ C B- F D 42% 31% 27% D D- F F F A+ C A+ B+ B B C- F C- 33% 37% 29% A- C A+ F C- B- D+ F+ D-
1.04 60% 39% 19% -5 -1 0.90 20% 0.6 .13 7% .35 88% .31 1.01 53% 37% 40% +1 -3 0.98 16% 1.8 .29 18% .32 79% .25
Dec
22		 Saint Joseph's D+ B A+ F C 25% 42% 34% F D+ F+ A+ C C B+ C+ B+ A+ B+ F A+ A 33% 20% 47% B+ A A+ A A+ D B D B-
0.95 62% 50% 17% -3 -4 0.89 23% 1.4 .31 15% .28 71% .20 0.87 50% 45% 19% -12 0 0.78 23% 0.8 .19 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
1		 Georgia Southern D- F+ F C+ F 35% 35% 30% F F B C- B- B+ B+ B- A- C- C+ F+ A+ C+ 29% 31% 40% A+ B C- F+ D D F D+ F
1.06 50% 20% 35% -9 -2 0.81 41% 1.0 .41 16% .42 78% .33 1.07 53% 50% 22% -5 -2 0.88 29% 1.3 .36 13% .48 75% .36
Jan
3		 Georgia St. C- D+ F D+ F+ 28% 19% 53% D F+ B+ A+ A+ D B- A+ A- F D C F F 10% 38% 52% A+ F C F F F B+ F C-
1.09 54% 22% 32% -6 -1 0.89 40% 1.3 .50 19% .32 82% .26 1.37 60% 35% 56% +16 -4 1.25 27% 1.6 .43 11% .24 100% .24
Jan
8		 Old Dominion F D- F B F+ 33% 25% 42% D F F B+ F+ C D B D+ C+ A F+ C- C+ 40% 29% 31% C- C+ F B- D- B- B+ A+ A+
0.96 53% 8% 36% -8 -1 0.85 18% 1.1 .21 15% .31 78% .24 1.02 45% 44% 35% -3 -1 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 17% .23 38% .09
Jan
10		 Appalachian St. B A F+ A+ A+ 35% 28% 37% D- A D- B- D+ B- D- F F D+ B+ A- B+ A- 29% 29% 43% A+ A D+ D- D- F C F D-
1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12 1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24
Jan
14		 Marshall B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% C- A+ F A+ F+ C D- A+ C+ D+ B- D F F 20% 52% 28% A+ D+ C+ A+ A F C A+ B
1.23 75% 58% 43% +16 -1 1.33 17% 1.3 .21 17% .30 88% .26 1.20 58% 42% 53% +10 -5 1.12 31% 0.8 .23 9% .25 63% .16
Jan
17		 Georgia Southern D+ F A F D- 19% 38% 43% F F C- F F+ D A+ A- A+ B A+ C+ A- A 37% 18% 46% B A D+ C C- F F+ A+ C+
1.07 44% 50% 25% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.8 .26 20% .64 82% .52 1.01 38% 40% 27% -12 0 0.79 30% 1.1 .32 7% .40 57% .23
Jan
22		 Texas St. D+ B+ A F D- 24% 27% 49% F F+ F+ D D- A A+ B A+ C A+ F A+ A 34% 45% 21% A+ A+ B B- B F D F F
1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37 1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Southern Miss A- C+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 42% D A+ D+ C C- F D+ A C+ C D C+ B+ D+ 33% 45% 22% A+ C A+ F A F C- A+ B-
1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25 0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25
Jan
29		 South Alabama F F D F F 16% 6% 78% C F D F F C- F F F A+ A+ F B A 40% 26% 34% A- A A+ F A- F A+ B+ A+
0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08 0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11
Feb
1		 Louisiana Monroe B- B B- A+ A 29% 22% 49% F+ A- C D+ C- C+ F D+ F F B+ F D- F 30% 21% 48% B- F F+ B D+ F B+ C- B
1.24 67% 45% 48% +14 -1 1.29 37% 1.1 .40 15% .16 67% .11 1.18 47% 67% 37% +5 -1 1.11 30% 0.9 .27 10% .25 73% .18
Feb
4		 Arkansas St. F F+ A+ F+ D- 28% 16% 56% C+ D B- C- C+ F C- F D B A+ B+ F C 33% 27% 41% A B- C A+ A C D B- D+
0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20 1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 Massachusetts C D D- A+ B+ 25% 34% 41% F C+ B- F D- A F F F C- A+ F D B+ 31% 39% 31% A+ A- F B- D- F C+ A+ A
1.12 56% 33% 48% +7 -3 1.10 31% 0.6 .19 12% .22 50% .11 1.09 21% 54% 37% -4 -3 0.89 39% 1.1 .44 14% .32 48% .15
Feb
12		 Louisiana D- F D- A+ D+ 37% 30% 33% F D D+ C- D+ F A- A+ A+ B+ D B B+ B- 21% 44% 35% A B B- C C+ D F F F
0.99 44% 31% 50% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 27% .45 87% .39 0.93 60% 33% 29% -4 -4 0.85 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 80% .33
Feb
18		 James Madison F D A+ F C- 15% 35% 50% F D- F C- F A C+ F D+ B- B- A- F B- 44% 28% 28% B+ B- A+ A A+ F A D- A-
0.99 50% 56% 23% -3 -3 0.88 18% 1.0 .18 8% .36 64% .23 1.02 54% 27% 40% -2 0 0.96 19% 0.9 .16 9% .20 75% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 1.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.3 3.3 3rd
4th 1.1 3.3 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 7.0 1.0 8.0 5th
6th 1.4 14.1 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 20.2 9.7 30.0 7th
8th 3.5 18.6 22.1 8th
9th 10.0 0.7 10.7 9th
10th 4.5 4.5 10th
11th 0.4 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 18.4 41.0 32.0 8.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 8.7% 6.8% 6.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.1
10-8 32.0% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 31.3
9-9 41.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 40.6
8-10 18.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 18.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.9 98.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.5 5.1 44.1 49.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 14.2%