Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#68
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#128
Pace66.1#256
Improvement-2.7#343

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#137
First Shot+0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#120
Layup/Dunks+3.5#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#248
Freethrows-1.7#284
Improvement-2.6#347

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#38
First Shot+4.5#51
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#73
Layups/Dunks+0.3#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#29
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.3% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 27.7% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.4% 17.3% 7.5%
Average Seed 10.1 9.8 10.7
.500 or above 84.1% 90.4% 74.4%
.500 or above in Conference 79.0% 83.1% 72.8%
Conference Champion 12.5% 14.8% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four4.3% 5.2% 2.9%
First Round20.8% 24.9% 14.4%
Second Round8.3% 10.7% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.0% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 25 - 56 - 9
Quad 38 - 314 - 12
Quad 46 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 151   Utah Valley W 76-56 81%     1 - 0 +17.9 +4.0 +14.4
  Nov 13, 2021 69   @ UC Irvine L 50-58 39%     1 - 1 +2.1 -11.2 +12.8
  Nov 18, 2021 40   St. Bonaventure L 61-67 37%     1 - 2 +4.6 +2.2 +1.5
  Nov 19, 2021 148   Temple W 82-62 72%     2 - 2 +21.3 +18.7 +4.8
  Nov 21, 2021 77   Mississippi W 60-50 52%     3 - 2 +16.7 -4.8 +21.9
  Nov 26, 2021 204   Cal St. Bakersfield L 39-46 87%     3 - 3 -11.9 -28.1 +15.2
  Nov 30, 2021 62   Saint Louis W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 03, 2021 142   Tulsa W 70-61 79%    
  Dec 07, 2021 273   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-58 84%    
  Dec 10, 2021 253   Prairie View W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 14, 2021 79   Santa Clara W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 22, 2021 60   Washington St. L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 28, 2021 130   Fresno St. W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 01, 2022 78   @ Wyoming L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 04, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 07, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 12, 2022 92   @ Nevada L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 258   Air Force W 68-52 92%    
  Jan 22, 2022 49   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 33%    
  Jan 25, 2022 78   Wyoming W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 28, 2022 130   @ Fresno St. W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 294   San Jose St. W 77-60 94%    
  Feb 08, 2022 230   @ New Mexico W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 11, 2022 145   UNLV W 68-59 77%    
  Feb 15, 2022 258   @ Air Force W 65-55 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 46   Utah St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 22, 2022 49   San Diego St. W 61-60 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 145   @ UNLV W 65-62 59%    
  Mar 01, 2022 92   Nevada W 72-68 65%    
  Mar 05, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.1 3.5 0.2 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 3.1 0.4 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.1 2.2 0.3 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.3 1.3 0.2 6.4 8th
9th 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.9 8.7 11.4 13.7 14.2 13.2 10.8 7.7 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 96.6% 2.3    2.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 81.9% 3.9    2.6 1.1 0.1
14-4 49.1% 3.8    1.4 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.7% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.1 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 94.1% 35.9% 58.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 90.8%
15-3 4.8% 79.8% 29.7% 50.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.0 71.3%
14-4 7.7% 61.9% 21.8% 40.1% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.9 51.3%
13-5 10.8% 40.5% 17.7% 22.8% 10.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 6.4 27.7%
12-6 13.2% 24.0% 14.4% 9.6% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 11.2%
11-7 14.2% 13.9% 9.6% 4.4% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.2 4.8%
10-8 13.7% 7.9% 6.9% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 12.6 1.1%
9-9 11.4% 3.1% 2.9% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.2%
8-10 8.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-11 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.0% 11.1% 11.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.8 4.2 6.4 4.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 77.0 13.4%