Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #63
Expected Predictive Rating +8.7 #71
Pace 66.0 #255
Improvement -3.4 #318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #75 B- C+ B- A- B
Defense #65 C+ A- C C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.18 #143 +3.1 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #299 0.70 #264 -2.5 #299
Three Pointers 42% #163 1.13 #41 +2.7 #89
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #78 +3.4 #78
Freethrows 0.36 #24 76% #57 0.28 #16
Second Chance 34.0% #86 1.05 #161 0.36 #96
Turnovers 15.2% #109
Total Offense +4.4 #75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.10 #105 +2.8 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #34 0.83 #295 -3.3 #355
Three Pointers 38% #266 1.00 #155 +1.9 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #131 +1.4 #131
Freethrows 0.29 #150 70% #54 0.20 #114
Second Chance 20.5% #2 1.07 #223 0.22 #10
Turnovers 16.3% #180
Total Defense +4.5 #65

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #54 -2.0% #40
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.6% #102 -0.8% #167
Possession Length 17.3 #168 18.2 #303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #184 0.17 #182
Improvement +2.0 #85 -5.4 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 15.7% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 8.8% 3.3%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.9
.500 or above 98.3% 99.7% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 85.1% 55.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.8% 5.9% 2.7%
First Round10.6% 12.5% 7.1%
Second Round2.9% 3.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 6
Quad 24 - 46 - 11
Quad 38 - 214 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 102 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 75% +12  1 - 0 +26 +24 A+ A+ A+ +0 B B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 189 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 90% +9  2 - 0 +15 +5 B- A+ F +8 C- A A-
 Sat, Nov 15 161 Montana St. W 62 - 58 87% +2  3 - 0 +1 -6 D- F+ B+ +7 B- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 98 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 74% +4  4 - 0 +5 -4 F+ B- C +9 A A- B+
 Mon, Nov 24 44 USC L 67 - 70 39% -2  4 - 1 +9 +1 C- B- F +7 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 25 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 25% -5  4 - 2 +5 +4 B D- C +1 D A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 61 @Butler W 77 - 68 38% +2  5 - 2 +21 +12 D+ C+ A- +10 A- B+ D
 Wed, Dec 10 121 Duquesne W 86 - 64 81% +12  6 - 2 +22 +12 B B+ A +9 A+ B D+
 Sun, Dec 14 43 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 39% +6  7 - 2 +13 +3 A C- F +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 72 @Nevada L 66 - 81 42% -10  7 - 3 0 - 1 -4 +5 A- D F+ -11 F A D+
 Tue, Dec 30 42 New Mexico W 62 - 53 50% -0  8 - 3 1 - 1 +18 -5 C- F+ A+ +23 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 41 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 28% -6  8 - 4 1 - 2 +12 +15 A- D+ B+ -2 D+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 7 66 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 63% -7  8 - 5 1 - 3 -11 -7 D F+ D -5 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 38 Utah St. L 68 - 93 44% -19  8 - 6 1 - 4 -15 +4 D A- B+ -20 C- F D
 Tue, Jan 13 127 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 65% -0  8 - 7 1 - 5 +1 +3 B+ F C- -2 C C C
 Fri, Jan 16 100 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 74% +6  9 - 7 2 - 5 +8 +14 B+ A+ D+ -5 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 113 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 61% +10  10 - 7 3 - 5 +22 +17 A+ D B+ +7 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 347 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  11 - 7 4 - 5 +27 +31 A+ A+ A+ +1 C B+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 246 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 84% +9  12 - 7 5 - 5 +29 +19 A- A+ B+ +12 A- B B-
 Fri, Jan 30 66 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 86 40% -6  12 - 8 5 - 6 -5 +9 C A- C+ -15 F B+ D
 Tue, Feb 3 72 Nevada W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 42 @New Mexico L 71 - 77 29%
 Fri, Feb 13 127 UNLV W 81 - 71 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 38 @Utah St. L 70 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 246 San Jose St. W 79 - 62 94%
 Tue, Feb 24 113 Wyoming W 77 - 68 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 @Fresno St. W 73 - 68 69%
 Tue, Mar 3 41 San Diego St. L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 100 @Colorado St. W 71 - 70 53%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 10 +9 +4 B- C+ B- +5 C+ A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.5 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.2 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.6 2.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 16.1 20.0 7.0 0.3 47.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 9.1 8.2 1.5 0.0 20.2 7th
8th 0.3 3.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.3 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.7 16.6 25.3 25.9 16.5 5.9 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.0% 71.0% 18.5% 52.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 64.4%
13-7 5.9% 43.4% 12.4% 31.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.0 3.3 35.4%
12-8 16.5% 24.1% 10.3% 13.7% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 0.0 12.6 15.3%
11-9 25.9% 12.9% 7.5% 5.3% 10.9 0.0 0.5 2.7 0.1 22.6 5.8%
10-10 25.3% 6.8% 5.6% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.1 23.6 1.3%
9-11 16.6% 4.0% 3.8% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 16.0 0.2%
8-12 6.7% 2.8% 2.8% 11.5 0.1 0.1 6.6
7-13 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.2% 6.8% 6.4% 10.6 86.8 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.4 2.7 13.5 45.9 16.2 18.9 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 86.8% 9.2 2.6 15.8 31.6 31.6 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 64.7% 9.5 5.9 23.5 31.4 3.9