Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#51
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#47
Pace65.6#282
Improvement-2.0#310

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#84
First Shot+3.0#89
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#116
Layup/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#99
Freethrows+3.4#21
Improvement-0.6#224

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#35
First Shot+2.7#92
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#8
Layups/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#20
Freethrows+1.4#87
Improvement-1.4#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 2.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 43.8% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.3% 31.3% 16.5%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.1
.500 or above 97.4% 99.0% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 92.9% 77.8%
Conference Champion 13.6% 17.6% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four9.5% 10.3% 8.0%
First Round33.2% 38.5% 22.1%
Second Round13.7% 16.4% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.7% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 5
Quad 25 - 48 - 9
Quad 39 - 217 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 85 Utah Valley W 101-77 73%     1 - 0 +27.6 +25.4 +0.7
  Tue, Nov 11 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 91%     2 - 0 +15.0 +4.5 +9.0
  Sat, Nov 15 168 Montana St. W 62-58 90%     3 - 0 +0.4 -5.4 +6.2
  Tue, Nov 18 98 Wichita St. W 62-59 77%     4 - 0 +5.5 -3.6 +9.4
  Mon, Nov 24 38 USC L 67-70 41%     4 - 1 +9.5 -0.2 +9.7
  Tue, Nov 25 28 North Carolina St. L 70-81 33%     4 - 2 +3.8 +2.8 +1.0
  Sat, Dec 6 50 @Butler W 77-68 38%     5 - 2 +22.3 +13.4 +9.3
  Wed, Dec 10 121 Duquesne W 86-64 84%     6 - 2 +21.5 +11.7 +9.7
  Sun, Dec 14 44 St. Mary's W 68-67 44%     7 - 2 +12.7 +4.0 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 20 89 @Nevada L 66-81 53%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -5.8 +4.5 -12.1
  Tue, Dec 30 66 New Mexico W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 52 @San Diego St. L 68-71 39%    
  Wed, Jan 7 87 Grand Canyon W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 33 Utah St. L 71-72 49%    
  Tue, Jan 13 133 @UNLV W 77-72 69%    
  Fri, Jan 16 91 Colorado St. W 74-67 74%    
  Tue, Jan 20 103 @Wyoming W 73-71 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 322 Air Force W 77-54 98%    
  Tue, Jan 27 197 @San Jose St. W 74-65 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 87 @Grand Canyon W 70-69 52%    
  Tue, Feb 3 89 Nevada W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Feb 7 66 @New Mexico L 73-74 46%    
  Fri, Feb 13 133 UNLV W 80-69 85%    
  Wed, Feb 18 33 @Utah St. L 69-75 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 197 San Jose St. W 77-62 92%    
  Tue, Feb 24 103 Wyoming W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 184 @Fresno St. W 76-67 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 52 San Diego St. W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 91 @Colorado St. W 71-70 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.5 3.1 1.3 0.3 13.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 6.2 6.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.6 5.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.2 5.1 1.1 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.4 1.2 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.9 8.6 12.3 14.8 14.8 14.0 11.1 7.2 3.6 1.3 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.2% 1.3    1.2 0.1
17-3 86.7% 3.1    2.4 0.7 0.0
16-4 62.3% 4.5    2.5 1.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 30.8% 3.4    1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1
14-6 6.8% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 7.7 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 56.6% 43.4% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 98.0% 39.6% 58.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.6%
17-3 3.6% 92.0% 36.8% 55.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 87.4%
16-4 7.2% 85.0% 31.6% 53.4% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.1 78.0%
15-5 11.1% 70.6% 25.3% 45.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.1 1.7 0.0 3.3 60.6%
14-6 14.0% 54.2% 20.3% 34.0% 10.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.1 0.1 6.4 42.6%
13-7 14.8% 37.2% 15.7% 21.5% 10.5 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.1 0.1 9.3 25.5%
12-8 14.8% 23.1% 12.2% 10.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 0.1 11.4 12.4%
11-9 12.3% 14.3% 9.0% 5.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.1 10.5 5.8%
10-10 8.6% 7.8% 6.7% 1.1% 11.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 7.9 1.2%
9-11 5.9% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 0.1%
8-12 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 3.1
7-13 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 38.2% 16.2% 22.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.4 6.2 11.0 13.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.8 26.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.1 12.8 12.8 42.6 21.3 8.5 2.1