Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +10.7 #51
Expected Predictive Rating +13.2 #45
Pace 65.9 #276
Improvement -0.4 #206

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #101 B- A C+ C+ B-
Defense #22 B+ B- A+ C- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.14 #202 +1.1 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #236 0.62 #319 -2.3 #284
Three Pointers 42% #172 1.18 #23 +3.9 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #107 +2.6 #107
Freethrows 22.0 #15 74% #131 16.3 #17
Second Chance 33.9% #89 1.02 #207 0.35 #123
Turnovers 15.8% #127
Total Offense +3.0 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.08 #91 +3.7 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #12 0.82 #272 -4.5 #361
Three Pointers 36% #310 0.81 #17 +6.3 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #43 +5.5 #44
Freethrows 16.4 #150 69% #57 11.3 #104
Second Chance 18.4% #1 0.91 #50 0.17 #3
Turnovers 16.2% #213
Total Defense +7.7 #22

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #108 -3% #18
Shot Type Make Effect 4% #121 -8% #58
Possession Length 17.4 #193 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.19 #223
Improvement -1.7 #299 +1.3 #97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 3.7% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.0% 55.2% 35.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.5% 42.8% 23.1%
Average Seed 9.6 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 98.9% 99.7% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 97.4% 90.2%
Conference Champion 16.8% 26.8% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.3% 11.1% 9.8%
First Round37.6% 49.5% 29.9%
Second Round15.8% 21.6% 12.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 4.7% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 43 - 5
Quad 25 - 38 - 8
Quad 39 - 117 - 10
Quad 44 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 88 Utah Valley W 101-77 75%     11.6   1 - 0 +27.6 +25.6 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 11 229 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 94%     8.7   2 - 0 +13.1 +3.6 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 15 169 Montana St. W 62-58 91%     2.3   3 - 0 +0.2 -5.6 +6.2
  Tue, Nov 18 90 Wichita St. W 62-59 76%     3.6   4 - 0 +6.3 -3.6 +10.1
  Mon, Nov 24 40 USC L 67-70 42%     -2.1   4 - 1 +9.8 -0.2 +10.0
  Tue, Nov 25 25 North Carolina St. L 70-81 33%     -4.6   4 - 2 +4.3 +3.9 +0.4
  Sat, Dec 6 50 @Butler W 77-68 38%     1.7   5 - 2 +22.8 +12.9 +10.2
  Wed, Dec 10 118 Duquesne W 86-64 84%     12.4   6 - 2 +22.1 +11.8 +10.1
  Sun, Dec 14 42 St. Mary's W 68-67 43%     5.6   7 - 2 +13.4 +3.1 +10.3
  Sat, Dec 20 78 @Nevada L 66-81 51%     -10.2   7 - 3 0 - 1 -4.6 +5.3 -11.7
  Tue, Dec 30 69 New Mexico W 62-53 71%     -0.3   8 - 3 1 - 1 +14.0 -6.8 +20.8
  Sat, Jan 3 53 @San Diego St. L 67-70 39%    
  Wed, Jan 7 89 Grand Canyon W 72-65 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 37 Utah St. W 71-70 52%    
  Tue, Jan 13 132 @UNLV W 77-71 70%    
  Fri, Jan 16 99 Colorado St. W 73-65 77%    
  Tue, Jan 20 103 @Wyoming W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 324 Air Force W 75-52 98%    
  Tue, Jan 27 196 @San Jose St. W 74-64 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 89 @Grand Canyon W 69-68 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 78 Nevada W 71-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 69 @New Mexico L 70-71 48%    
  Fri, Feb 13 132 UNLV W 80-68 86%    
  Wed, Feb 18 37 @Utah St. L 68-73 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 196 San Jose St. W 77-61 93%    
  Tue, Feb 24 103 Wyoming W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 181 @Fresno St. W 75-66 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 53 San Diego St. W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 99 @Colorado St. W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.8 5.7 4.3 1.6 0.4 16.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.8 7.5 3.8 0.5 0.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.7 6.9 2.1 0.2 17.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.5 6.0 1.6 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 5.1 1.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.9 6.9 10.2 13.6 16.0 16.4 13.5 9.7 4.8 1.7 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 97.6% 1.6    1.5 0.1
17-3 88.8% 4.3    3.2 1.1 0.1
16-4 58.4% 5.7    3.1 2.2 0.4
15-5 27.9% 3.8    1.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
14-6 6.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.4 5.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 97.3% 43.2% 54.1% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.2%
18-2 1.7% 97.6% 33.3% 64.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.4%
17-3 4.8% 90.9% 37.8% 53.1% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 85.4%
16-4 9.7% 82.2% 31.9% 50.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 0.8 1.7 73.9%
15-5 13.5% 67.7% 23.9% 43.8% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 2.3 4.4 57.5%
14-6 16.4% 52.8% 19.7% 33.1% 10.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.5 3.6 0.0 7.7 41.2%
13-7 16.0% 35.9% 16.7% 19.2% 10.5 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 0.0 10.2 23.1%
12-8 13.6% 20.5% 11.7% 8.8% 10.8 0.1 0.6 2.0 0.2 10.8 9.9%
11-9 10.2% 15.0% 9.3% 5.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 8.7 6.3%
10-10 6.9% 7.9% 6.2% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 6.4 1.8%
9-11 3.9% 5.4% 5.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.7
8-12 1.8% 3.9% 3.9% 12.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.0% 18.0% 25.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.1 12.8 13.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 57.0 30.5%