Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #297
Pace 68.7 #200
Improvement -3.0 #325

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #343 F F F C D+
Defense #219 D- C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #357 1.04 #314 -7.3 #355
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.47 #362 -2.9 #318
Three Pointers 51% #25 0.94 #264 +3.1 #93
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #345 -7.1 #345
Freethrows 12.2 #353 70% #266 8.5 #353
Second Chance 23.2% #343 1.00 #242 0.23 #337
Turnovers 17.0% #195
Total Offense -7.3 #343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #214 1.20 #233 -0.3 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #142 0.98 #359 -2.4 #331
Three Pointers 41% #190 1.09 #291 -1.6 #250
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #317 -4.3 #305
Freethrows 18.3 #234 73% #186 13.3 #135
Second Chance 32.4% #254 1.03 #174 0.33 #214
Turnovers 16.3% #204
Total Defense -1.4 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #268 -0.4% #131
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.8% #346 9.6% #330
Possession Length 18.6 #312 16.8 #114
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #346 0.17 #171
Improvement -4.0 #355 +1.1 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.9% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.1% 12.2% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.6% 63.5% 37.5%
Conference Champion 2.0% 5.6% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 3.6% 11.2%
First Four3.7% 4.8% 3.5%
First Round2.2% 3.0% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 411 - 1112 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 278 Delaware W 78-70 53%     -3.5   1 - 0 -1.6 +1.0 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 7 295 @Mount St. Mary's W 73-62 35%     -1.2   2 - 0 +6.3 +5.1 +1.9
  Tue, Nov 11 239 @Princeton L 63-73 25%     -11.6   2 - 1 -11.6 -7.3 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 14 113 Hofstra L 77-83 19%     -6.9   2 - 2 -5.3 -0.8 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 17 85 @Pittsburgh L 50-84 5%     -20.3   2 - 3 -24.0 -14.6 -12.1
  Thu, Nov 20 20 @St. John's L 49-97 1%     -21.5   2 - 4 -28.7 -18.0 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 24 127 Bowling Green L 66-71 16%     -11.8   2 - 5 -2.9 -4.9 +2.0
  Wed, Nov 26 182 Buffalo L 71-73 24%     -10.1   2 - 6 -3.4 +5.1 -8.8
  Sun, Nov 30 166 Cornell L 72-101 31%     -21.3   2 - 7 -32.6 -12.5 -18.6
  Wed, Dec 3 68 @Akron L 77-97 4%     -15.9   2 - 8 -8.6 +7.0 -16.0
  Sat, Dec 6 268 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66-73 51%     -4.2   2 - 9 -16.0 -6.7 -9.9
  Tue, Dec 9 348 @Rider W 51-38 53%     6.1   3 - 9 +3.6 -16.8 +22.3
  Sat, Dec 20 21 Iowa L 39-94 2%     -23.2   3 - 10 -38.7 -23.0 -19.7
  Wed, Dec 31 322 @Holy Cross L 58-65 42%     -6.8   3 - 11 0 - 1 -13.8 -11.0 -3.6
  Sat, Jan 3 327 Lehigh W 72-65 67%     -8.0   4 - 11 1 - 1 -6.1 -9.1 +2.6
  Wed, Jan 7 204 @Navy L 64-73 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 344 Loyola Maryland W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 313 Lafayette W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 188 @Colgate L 66-76 18%    
  Wed, Jan 21 324 Army W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 344 @Loyola Maryland W 73-72 51%    
  Mon, Jan 26 313 @Lafayette L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 279 Boston University W 70-69 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 245 @American L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Feb 7 188 Colgate L 69-73 37%    
  Mon, Feb 9 204 Navy L 67-70 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 279 @Boston University L 67-72 32%    
  Wed, Feb 18 245 American L 70-71 47%    
  Sun, Feb 22 322 Holy Cross W 70-66 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 324 @Army L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 327 @Lehigh L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 6.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.2 7.0 2.5 0.2 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.4 2.9 0.2 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.2 7.1 3.2 0.2 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.2 7.2 11.7 15.5 16.7 14.8 12.1 8.1 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 86.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 63.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 36.7% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 24.0% 24.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-4 0.7% 17.0% 17.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 2.1% 14.0% 14.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.8
12-6 4.5% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 4.0
11-7 8.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 7.4
10-8 12.1% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.9 11.2
9-9 14.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.8 14.1
8-10 16.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 16.3
7-11 15.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.2
6-12 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.6
5-13 7.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.1
4-14 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1 95.7 0.0%