Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.2 #313
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #305
Pace 67.0 #233
Improvement -1.6 #252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #320 D D+ D- C C+
Defense #280 D D+ C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #234 1.06 #294 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #258 0.56 #362 -3.1 #327
Three Pointers 47% #61 0.92 #302 +0.7 #148
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #329 -5.4 #329
Freethrows 0.28 #260 76% #53 0.22 #191
Second Chance 26.1% #303 1.05 #143 0.27 #265
Turnovers 20.3% #341
Total Offense -5.7 #320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.25 #301 +0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.85 #322 -0.9 #259
Three Pointers 44% #94 1.11 #313 -3.5 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #311 -4.2 #307
Freethrows 0.32 #237 73% #239 0.24 #248
Second Chance 33.0% #284 1.06 #229 0.35 #271
Turnovers 17.5% #149
Total Defense -3.5 #280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #146 -0.5% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.1% #339 9.1% #331
Possession Length 17.8 #239 17.0 #140
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #309 0.17 #163
Improvement +1.4 #99 -3.1 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.0% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.1% 54.3% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 3.6% 14.2%
First Four3.1% 3.7% 2.6%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 411 - 1012 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 284 Delaware W 78 - 70 53% +6  1 - 0 -2 -0 C A- F+ -2 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 7 298 @Mount St. Mary's W 73 - 62 34% +4  2 - 0 +6 +5 B F A+ +1 B- B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 215 @Princeton L 63 - 73 20% -5  2 - 1 -10 -8 C- F F+ -3 C- C- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 122 Hofstra L 77 - 83 21% -2  2 - 2 -7 -2 D+ A+ F -4 D- A+ C-
 Mon, Nov 17 94 @Pittsburgh L 50 - 84 6% -17  2 - 3 -25 -15 F F+ F -13 F F+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 18 @St. John's L 49 - 97 1% -17  2 - 4 -27 -18 F D- F -6 F A- B
 Mon, Nov 24 147 Bowling Green L 66 - 71 17% -7  2 - 5 -4 -4 B+ D F -0 C D+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 196 Buffalo L 71 - 73 26% -2  2 - 6 -4 +4 B- C C- -9 D+ A- D-
 Sun, Nov 30 178 Cornell L 72 - 101 31% -14  2 - 7 -33 -14 F A F -18 F F A-
 Wed, Dec 3 63 @Akron L 77 - 97 4% -11  2 - 8 -8 +9 B- D- A+ -18 F+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 257 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66 - 73 47% -1  2 - 9 -15 -6 F C C- -10 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 352 @Rider W 51 - 38 54% +8  3 - 9 +3 -20 F F F +25 B A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 21 Iowa L 39 - 94 2% -23  3 - 10 -38 -23 D+ F F -18 D- F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 326 @Holy Cross L 58 - 65 43% -4  3 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -11 D- F F -4 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 304 Lehigh W 72 - 65 59% -3  4 - 11 1 - 1 -4 -8 F B- C +4 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 174 @Navy L 55 - 76 15% -7  4 - 12 1 - 2 -19 -10 F+ F D -10 D- F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 316 Loyola Maryland W 70 - 67 63% +1  5 - 12 2 - 2 -9 -9 F B+ F -1 D- A A-
 Wed, Jan 14 315 Lafayette W 76 - 69 62% +1  6 - 12 3 - 2 -5 +3 B- A+ F -8 D C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @Colgate L 76 - 95 20% -14  6 - 13 3 - 3 -19 +1 D C- C -20 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 339 Army L 84 - 87 OT 69% -2  6 - 14 3 - 4 -17 +3 B- F+ B- -20 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 316 @Loyola Maryland L 62 - 67 40% -2  6 - 15 3 - 5 -11 -9 F C- C+ -3 C+ F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 315 @Lafayette L 79 - 81 39% +4  6 - 16 3 - 6 -8 +10 C- B- C- -18 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 289 Boston University W 103 - 97 2OT 54% +3  7 - 16 4 - 6 -4 +12 B B- B- -17 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 253 @American W 60 - 59 25% -2  8 - 16 5 - 6 -1 -1 D- B- F +0 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 219 Colgate L 71 - 74 39%
 Mon, Feb 9 174 Navy L 65 - 70 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 289 @Boston University L 68 - 73 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 253 American L 70 - 71 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 326 Holy Cross W 72 - 68 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 339 @Army L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 304 @Lehigh L 68 - 72 36%
Totals 11 - 20 8 - 10 -9 -6 D D+ D- -3 D D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.4 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 5.5 1.4 0.1 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.7 11.0 3.2 0.1 17.0 4th
5th 0.5 10.5 6.3 0.2 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 5.2 11.0 0.8 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 0.6 11.6 2.7 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.1 4.7 6.4 0.2 11.4 8th
9th 0.9 5.4 0.6 6.8 9th
10th 1.9 1.1 0.0 2.9 10th
Total 2.8 11.8 24.3 27.1 21.2 9.8 2.7 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 14.3% 14.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 2.7% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.3 2.4
10-8 9.8% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.7 9.1
9-9 21.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.9 20.3
8-10 27.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.7 26.4
7-11 24.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 24.0
6-12 11.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.6
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%