Bucknell
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#309
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#310
Pace76.5#39
Improvement-1.7#291

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#265
First Shot+1.0#157
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#349
Layup/Dunks-2.3#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#104
Freethrows+1.1#113
Improvement-1.0#267

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#323
First Shot-4.6#312
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#229
Layups/Dunks-1.5#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#264
Freethrows+0.7#148
Improvement-0.7#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 10.3% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.6% 38.0% 26.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.1% 7.2% 12.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.8%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 410 - 1111 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 74   @ North Carolina St. L 70-88 5%     0 - 1 -8.1 -2.6 -4.6
  Nov 14, 2021 206   Penn L 68-73 35%     0 - 2 -9.8 -8.4 -1.4
  Nov 17, 2021 298   Rider W 81-74 57%     1 - 2 -3.6 -2.3 -1.8
  Nov 20, 2021 242   @ Illinois St. L 100-105 OT 24%     1 - 3 -6.3 +3.6 -8.8
  Nov 23, 2021 177   Mercer L 68-78 22%     1 - 4 -10.5 -9.9 -0.3
  Nov 24, 2021 298   Rider L 79-85 46%     1 - 5 -13.6 -2.5 -10.6
  Nov 28, 2021 279   Siena W 65-56 OT 53%     2 - 5 -0.4 -10.2 +10.0
  Dec 01, 2021 231   @ St. Francis (PA) L 67-93 22%     2 - 6 -26.5 -11.0 -14.4
  Dec 04, 2021 125   @ Hofstra L 69-88 9%     2 - 7 -13.2 -1.9 -12.1
  Dec 07, 2021 152   @ Princeton L 70-83 12%    
  Dec 18, 2021 248   La Salle L 73-74 45%    
  Dec 22, 2021 62   @ Richmond L 67-86 4%    
  Dec 29, 2021 300   @ Albany L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 01, 2022 156   @ Boston University L 66-78 12%    
  Jan 04, 2022 265   Army L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 07, 2022 108   @ Navy L 63-79 7%    
  Jan 10, 2022 277   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 13, 2022 316   Lehigh W 78-75 63%    
  Jan 16, 2022 329   @ American L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 19, 2022 116   Colgate L 76-85 20%    
  Jan 22, 2022 346   @ Holy Cross W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 26, 2022 108   Navy L 66-76 19%    
  Jan 29, 2022 277   Loyola Maryland W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 02, 2022 116   @ Colgate L 73-88 9%    
  Feb 05, 2022 294   @ Lafayette L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 09, 2022 329   American W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 346   Holy Cross W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 14, 2022 316   @ Lehigh L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 294   Lafayette W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 23, 2022 265   @ Army L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 156   Boston University L 69-75 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.7 4.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.0 5.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.8 6.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 17.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.1 5.5 1.5 0.1 15.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.9 3.6 0.7 0.1 11.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.6 8.6 11.9 14.6 15.6 14.4 11.0 7.7 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 70.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 31.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 16.4% 16.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
12-6 2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.4
11-7 4.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
10-8 7.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.6
9-9 11.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.8
8-10 14.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-11 15.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.5
6-12 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
4-14 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-15 4.6% 4.6
2-16 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%