Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.4 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +10.4 #60
Pace 74.3 #56
Improvement -4.5 #354

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #65 B C+ A+ C B+
Defense #75 B A B+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.23 #102 +4.3 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #307 0.75 #180 -2.3 #293
Three Pointers 42% #155 1.10 #85 +2.5 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #66 +4.5 #66
Freethrows 19.7 #75 69% #284 13.6 #120
Second Chance 37.7% #24 1.25 #13 0.47 #9
Turnovers 16.2% #155
Total Offense +5.6 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.12 #132 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #135 0.58 #10 +1.4 #84
Three Pointers 32% #356 0.93 #83 +5.8 #17
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #69 +3.6 #69
Freethrows 12.7 #19 71% #110 9.0 #347
Second Chance 27.8% #86 0.91 #35 0.25 #36
Turnovers 16.5% #192
Total Defense +3.8 #75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #49 0.9% #256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.4% #82 -7.9% #55
Possession Length 15.4 #35 18.1 #307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #66 0.19 #238
Improvement -2.8 #334 -1.7 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.6% 30.8% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.1% 29.1% 13.7%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.1
.500 or above 84.9% 92.4% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 36.3% 48.1% 21.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.8% 9.0%
First Four8.8% 10.7% 6.4%
First Round18.7% 25.0% 11.1%
Second Round7.3% 10.1% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 9
Quad 26 - 48 - 13
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 328 Southern Indiana W 88-58 97%     18.3   1 - 0 +16.7 +5.3 +9.4
  Sat, Nov 8 352 IU Indianapolis W 112-80 98%     13.5   2 - 0 +15.8 +3.9 +4.7
  Tue, Nov 11 349 Chicago St. W 98-66 98%     24.1   3 - 0 +16.5 +12.8 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 15 28 @SMU L 85-87 22%     0.0   3 - 1 +15.3 +12.8 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 21 73 South Carolina W 79-72 56%     6.5   4 - 1 +14.9 +11.0 +4.1
  Sun, Nov 23 22 Virginia W 80-73 27%     4.8   5 - 1 +22.9 +15.0 +8.0
  Fri, Nov 28 146 Wright St. W 94-69 86%     4.5   6 - 1 +22.6 +13.4 +7.4
  Tue, Dec 2 195 Eastern Michigan W 84-68 91%     6.6   7 - 1 +10.7 +14.8 -3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 53 Boise St. L 68-77 58%     -1.7   7 - 2 -1.7 +3.8 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 13 64 Providence W 113-110 2OT 64%     -0.2   8 - 2 1 - 0 +8.8 +19.0 -10.8
  Tue, Dec 16 5 @Connecticut L 60-79 9%     -9.7   8 - 3 1 - 1 +5.4 +0.2 +5.2
  Sat, Dec 20 63 Northwestern W 61-58 52%     4.4   9 - 3 +11.8 -6.5 +18.4
  Mon, Dec 22 353 NJIT W 101-52 98%     29.1   10 - 3 +32.8 +19.9 +11.0
  Tue, Dec 30 37 @Creighton L 85-89 25%     -6.8   10 - 4 1 - 2 +12.3 +16.6 -4.1
  Sat, Jan 3 30 Villanova L 67-85 43%     -2.5   10 - 5 1 - 3 -6.9 -1.9 -4.7
  Tue, Jan 6 20 St. John's L 70-84 35%     0.7   10 - 6 1 - 4 -0.8 +2.4 -2.9
  Wed, Jan 14 99 @Xavier W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 54 @Seton Hall L 69-73 36%    
  Tue, Jan 20 103 DePaul W 78-70 75%    
  Fri, Jan 23 110 Marquette W 82-74 78%    
  Wed, Jan 28 20 @St. John's L 75-85 18%    
  Sat, Jan 31 102 Georgetown W 83-75 75%    
  Wed, Feb 4 64 @Providence L 85-87 41%    
  Sat, Feb 7 110 @Marquette W 79-77 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 5 Connecticut L 70-79 20%    
  Sun, Feb 15 54 Seton Hall W 72-70 58%    
  Wed, Feb 18 102 @Georgetown W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 99 Xavier W 82-75 75%    
  Wed, Feb 25 30 @Villanova L 69-77 23%    
  Wed, Mar 4 37 Creighton L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 @DePaul W 75-73 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 5.4 1.7 0.1 15.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.4 9.5 6.7 2.1 0.2 23.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.7 9.0 5.5 1.3 0.1 21.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.9 0.2 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.6 8.5 13.1 16.9 17.9 15.0 11.1 6.2 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 3.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.0% 99.0% 10.3% 88.7% 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-7 2.7% 91.8% 7.8% 84.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 91.1%
12-8 6.2% 77.9% 4.5% 73.4% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 1.4 76.9%
11-9 11.1% 56.9% 4.0% 53.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.2 0.0 4.8 55.1%
10-10 15.0% 39.0% 2.2% 36.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.2 0.0 9.2 37.6%
9-11 17.9% 12.9% 1.4% 11.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 0.1 15.6 11.6%
8-12 16.9% 3.1% 1.1% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 16.4 2.1%
7-13 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 11.1 0.1 0.0 13.1 0.0%
6-14 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 8.5
5-15 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 23.6% 1.9% 21.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.0 8.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 76.4 22.1%