Butler
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#54
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#33
Pace70.3#148
Improvement+4.0#12

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#51
First Shot+5.0#53
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks-5.7#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#53
Freethrows+4.9#8
Improvement+2.1#37

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#67
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#14
Layups/Dunks-1.7#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#93
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement+1.8#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 7.8% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 10.0% 21.1% 8.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.4% 68.8% 46.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.6% 66.0% 43.7%
Average Seed 8.4 7.6 8.5
.500 or above 82.6% 94.1% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.7% 68.0% 54.9%
Conference Champion 4.6% 8.1% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.5% 5.0%
First Four7.8% 6.5% 8.0%
First Round44.9% 64.6% 41.9%
Second Round22.0% 34.4% 20.1%
Sweet Sixteen6.6% 11.9% 5.8%
Elite Eight2.4% 4.4% 2.1%
Final Four0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 165   Missouri St. W 72-65 89%     1 - 0 +3.4 +2.1 +1.6
  Nov 08, 2024 238   Austin Peay L 66-68 93%     1 - 1 -9.2 -4.5 -4.8
  Nov 11, 2024 271   Western Michigan W 85-65 95%     2 - 1 +11.0 +6.6 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2024 62   SMU W 81-70 63%     3 - 1 +17.2 +8.8 +8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 222   Merrimack W 78-39 92%     4 - 1 +32.7 +18.2 +20.2
  Nov 28, 2024 66   Northwestern W 71-69 53%     5 - 1 +11.0 +7.9 +3.2
  Nov 29, 2024 15   Mississippi St. W 87-77 30%     6 - 1 +25.2 +18.0 +6.8
  Dec 03, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 73-58 97%     7 - 1 +3.3 -1.0 +4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 6   @ Houston L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 10, 2024 187   North Dakota St. W 80-66 91%    
  Dec 14, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 18, 2024 12   @ Marquette L 70-79 21%    
  Dec 21, 2024 11   Connecticut L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 01, 2025 56   Villanova W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 04, 2025 20   @ St. John's L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 79   @ Providence L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 40   Creighton W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 15, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 67-57 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 97   DePaul W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 28, 2025 12   Marquette L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 31, 2025 98   @ Georgetown W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 79   Providence W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 98   Georgetown W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 18, 2025 68   @ Xavier L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 97   @ DePaul W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 20   St. John's L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 56   @ Villanova L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 05, 2025 68   Xavier W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 40   @ Creighton L 72-77 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.5 1.9 0.2 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.1 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.9 8.1 10.6 12.5 12.9 12.7 10.8 8.3 5.5 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 87.9% 0.7    0.5 0.1
16-4 70.8% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.3% 1.4    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 12.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.8% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.5% 99.8% 14.3% 85.5% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 5.5% 98.5% 14.9% 83.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
13-7 8.3% 95.4% 10.0% 85.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 94.9%
12-8 10.8% 87.6% 8.3% 79.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 0.9 0.0 1.3 86.5%
11-9 12.7% 72.9% 5.0% 67.9% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.0 1.9 0.1 3.4 71.5%
10-10 12.9% 53.6% 2.9% 50.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.7 0.2 6.0 52.2%
9-11 12.5% 24.5% 1.7% 22.8% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.3 9.4 23.2%
8-12 10.6% 6.5% 1.3% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 9.9 5.3%
7-13 8.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 1.1%
6-14 5.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
5-15 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.4% 5.3% 44.1% 8.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.5 7.2 8.8 8.9 8.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.6 46.6%