Colgate
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#205
Pace72.2#96
Improvement-1.9#300

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#44
First Shot+6.6#24
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#261
Layup/Dunks+2.0#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#8
Freethrows-1.3#263
Improvement+0.3#159

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#232
First Shot-1.3#222
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#211
Layups/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#47
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement-2.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.6% 36.2% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 93.0% 96.7% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.4% 98.7%
Conference Champion 43.4% 47.7% 38.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 0.6% 1.8%
First Round33.2% 35.9% 29.9%
Second Round4.2% 5.1% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 33 - 46 - 9
Quad 415 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 142   Northeastern W 65-58 68%     1 - 0 +5.8 -3.4 +9.3
  Nov 13, 2021 74   @ North Carolina St. L 74-77 27%     1 - 1 +6.9 +12.6 -6.0
  Nov 16, 2021 188   @ Cornell L 68-78 56%     1 - 2 -8.0 -11.5 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2021 59   @ Syracuse W 100-85 24%     2 - 2 +25.9 +24.6 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2021 151   @ Harvard L 84-89 OT 47%     2 - 3 -0.6 +1.8 -1.7
  Nov 29, 2021 221   Niagara L 59-70 80%     2 - 4 -16.5 -10.9 -6.5
  Dec 03, 2021 142   @ Northeastern L 69-74 45%     2 - 5 -0.2 +9.2 -10.0
  Dec 06, 2021 339   Columbia W 89-61 96%     3 - 5 +11.9 +6.6 +5.2
  Dec 09, 2021 179   @ Pittsburgh W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 12, 2021 79   @ St. John's L 80-86 28%    
  Dec 19, 2021 117   @ Monmouth L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 22, 2021 103   @ Vermont L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 01, 2022 294   @ Lafayette W 81-73 77%    
  Jan 04, 2022 316   @ Lehigh W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 07, 2022 329   American W 85-67 95%    
  Jan 10, 2022 265   Army W 83-71 87%    
  Jan 13, 2022 108   @ Navy L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 16, 2022 346   Holy Cross W 87-67 97%    
  Jan 19, 2022 309   @ Bucknell W 85-76 80%    
  Jan 22, 2022 294   Lafayette W 84-70 89%    
  Jan 24, 2022 277   Loyola Maryland W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 156   @ Boston University L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 02, 2022 309   Bucknell W 88-73 91%    
  Feb 05, 2022 329   @ American W 82-70 85%    
  Feb 09, 2022 316   Lehigh W 85-69 92%    
  Feb 12, 2022 277   @ Loyola Maryland W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 16, 2022 265   @ Army W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 156   Boston University W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 23, 2022 346   @ Holy Cross W 84-70 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 108   Navy W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.1 11.7 13.5 9.0 2.7 43.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.7 10.8 7.2 1.7 31.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.6 5.3 2.0 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.3 6.0 9.9 14.6 17.9 19.1 15.2 9.0 2.7 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
17-1 100.0% 9.0    8.5 0.5
16-2 88.9% 13.5    10.5 3.0 0.0
15-3 61.1% 11.7    6.6 4.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 28.7% 5.1    1.9 2.4 0.8 0.0
13-5 9.1% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.4% 43.4 30.5 11.2 1.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.7% 61.8% 61.5% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.8%
17-1 9.0% 54.8% 54.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 0.1%
16-2 15.2% 46.9% 46.9% 13.7 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 8.1
15-3 19.1% 38.6% 38.6% 14.1 0.2 1.6 3.0 2.4 0.3 11.7
14-4 17.9% 30.4% 30.4% 14.6 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.4 0.6 12.5
13-5 14.6% 24.6% 24.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.9 11.0
12-6 9.9% 19.3% 19.3% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 8.0
11-7 6.0% 15.8% 15.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 5.0
10-8 3.3% 13.4% 13.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8
9-9 1.5% 10.4% 10.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3
8-10 0.6% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.3% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.6% 33.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 7.3 10.4 9.4 3.9 66.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.4 9.1 16.4 12.7 12.7 16.4 16.4 9.1 3.6 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 4.2% 9.0 4.2