Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.0 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #208
Pace 67.4 #224
Improvement -2.6 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 B- D C D D+
Defense #250 C C+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #242 1.19 #145 -0.8 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #85 0.89 #37 +3.5 #34
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.12 #49 +0.6 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #83 +3.3 #83
Freethrows 0.25 #315 71% #235 0.18 #312
Second Chance 26.2% #302 0.94 #313 0.25 #320
Turnovers 16.0% #152
Total Offense -0.5 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #103 1.21 #247 -2.7 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.70 #83 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 39% #248 1.03 #198 +1.0 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #205 -0.9 #209
Freethrows 0.31 #217 73% #202 0.23 #222
Second Chance 31.3% #209 0.96 #71 0.30 #126
Turnovers 14.5% #298
Total Defense -2.5 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #291 0.6% #220
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.2% #61 1.1% #204
Possession Length 17.9 #228 17.3 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #217 0.14 #74
Improvement -1.0 #240 -1.6 #282

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 24.8% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 92.5% 95.1% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 97.7%
Conference Champion 30.4% 33.6% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.6% 2.4% 3.6%
First Round22.8% 23.8% 17.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 5 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 1% -6  0 - 1 +13 +12 A+ C- C- +1 A+ C- D
 Fri, Nov 7 261 Northeastern L 65 - 68 70% +1  0 - 2 -11 -12 F+ F B- +0 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 201 Drexel W 90 - 83 60% +7  1 - 2 +1 +17 A+ D F+ -16 F C- D
 Fri, Nov 14 6 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1 - 3 +5 +4 B D A -0 A+ C D-
 Mon, Nov 17 172 @Siena W 72 - 69 31% +0  2 - 3 +5 +7 B D+ C+ -2 C D D+
 Thu, Nov 20 175 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 32% +0  2 - 4 +1 -7 F C- C+ +8 B A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 308 Albany W 69 - 67 71% -2  3 - 4 -7 -2 B- F C -4 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 196 Fordham W 72 - 62 47% +9  4 - 4 +8 +6 A- D- D+ +2 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 151 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 26% +3  4 - 5 -4 +4 D B A+ -9 C- C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 11 @Florida L 60 - 90 2% -17  4 - 6 -7 +3 A D F -13 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 179 Harvard L 69 - 78 56% -2  4 - 7 -13 -5 D+ D C- -9 F A- D-
 Wed, Dec 31 314 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 63% +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +6 B F B- -5 C- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 341 @Army W 76 - 69 70% +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +8 C+ D- B- -8 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 220 American W 64 - 62 64% -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -5 +0 D+ C C+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Lehigh L 77 - 78 79% -2  7 - 8 3 - 1 -12 +5 B- D- C+ -18 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 14 320 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 65% +3  8 - 8 4 - 1 -1 +6 C D B- -7 C- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 321 Bucknell W 95 - 76 83% +23  9 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +16 A+ A- B -11 D+ C- C
 Wed, Jan 21 220 @American L 66 - 70 41% -1  9 - 9 5 - 2 -5 -4 D+ F+ C- -1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 279 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 74% -3  10 - 9 6 - 2 -9 -4 C C+ F -5 D A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 324 Holy Cross W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 301 @Lehigh W 74 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 4 341 Army W 81 - 70 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 321 @Bucknell W 73 - 69 64%
 Wed, Feb 11 324 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 183 Navy W 72 - 70 56%
 Mon, Feb 16 279 @Boston University W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 320 Loyola Maryland W 81 - 71 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 314 Lafayette W 77 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 @Navy L 69 - 73 34%
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -3 +0 B- D C -3 C C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 6.4 12.0 8.7 2.1 30.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 10.0 14.0 6.9 0.6 34.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.5 9.4 10.5 4.1 0.5 28.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.4 0.2 5.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.8 13.5 21.9 24.4 19.3 9.3 2.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
15-3 93.8% 8.7    6.6 2.0 0.1
14-4 62.0% 12.0    5.9 5.2 0.9 0.0
13-5 26.0% 6.4    1.8 3.2 1.3 0.0
12-6 5.4% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.4% 30.4 16.5 11.0 2.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.1% 39.2% 39.2% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.3
15-3 9.3% 35.6% 35.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.2 6.0
14-4 19.3% 29.6% 29.6% 15.1 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.3 13.6
13-5 24.4% 25.0% 25.0% 15.4 0.3 3.1 2.7 18.3
12-6 21.9% 20.0% 20.0% 15.6 0.1 1.6 2.8 17.5
11-7 13.5% 18.2% 18.2% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.8 11.1
10-8 6.8% 12.8% 12.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 5.9
9-9 2.2% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.2 2.0
8-10 0.5% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 15.3 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.5 5.4 42.9 47.0 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%