Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.2 232
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 220
Pace 67.4 218
Improvement -3.8 321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 203 C+ D+ C+ D D+
Defense D+ 264 C- C D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 C- 56% 224 -1.8 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 104 B 43% 45 +3.6 36
Three Pointers 37% 264 B- 36% 82 -0.6 203
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 294 B- +2.0 106
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 135
Second Chance D+ 27.1% 279 C- 0.99 239 D+ 0.27 276
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 134
Freethrows D 0.26 308 C 72% 195 D 0.19 298
Total Offense C- -1.3 203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 149 C- 60% 231 +1.4 230
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 182 B- 35% 86 -0.6 145
Three Pointers 40% 218 C- 35% 225 +0.1 179
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 191 C- +0.7 207
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 208
Second Chance C 30.5% 183 C 1.02 160 C 0.31 176
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 289
Freethrows C- 0.32 222 C 72% 172 C- 0.23 221
Total Defense D+ -2.9 264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 208 17.4 200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 187 0.14 82
Improvement -2.4 #304 -1.4 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 20% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 97% 100% 87%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 7%
First Round17% 18% 14%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 415 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 15 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  3% 0 - 1 B +11 B +7 A+ D+ D+ B +4 A+ D+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 283 Northeastern L 65 - 68 71% +1  65% 0 - 2 D- -13 F -15 F F C+ B- +2 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 226 Drexel W 90 - 83 60% +7  81% 1 - 2 C +0 A+ +14 A+ D+ D- F -14 F C- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 6 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1% 1 - 3 B- +6 C+ +2 B- D+ A+ B- +3 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 17 188 @Siena W 72 - 69 30% +0  46% 2 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 B D+ C+ C+ +1 B- D- D+
 Thu, Nov 20 148 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 23% +0  43% 2 - 4 C+ +2 F+ -9 D- D C+ A+ +11 B A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 324 Albany W 69 - 67 73% -2  29% 3 - 4 D -8 D -6 B- F C+ C- -2 F A- D+
 Sun, Nov 30 151 Fordham W 72 - 62 33% +9  93% 4 - 4 B +10 B +6 A F+ C+ B+ +5 B B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 135 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 21% +3  62% 4 - 5 C- -3 C+ +2 D A- A+ D -5 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 4 @Florida L 60 - 90 1% -17  4% 4 - 6 C- -4 C+ +3 A+ D+ D- F+ -9 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 160 Harvard L 69 - 78 46% -2  30% 4 - 7 D- -12 D- -6 C- D C- D -6 F A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 322 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 62% +1  61% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C +1 B- +4 B+ F B D+ -3 C- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 340 @Army W 76 - 69 69% +3  70% 6 - 7 2 - 0 C- -2 B +7 C+ D B+ D- -8 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 260 American W 64 - 62 67% -5  9% 7 - 7 3 - 0 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C- B- C- -3 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 302 Lehigh L 77 - 78 75% -2  26% 7 - 8 3 - 1 D- -12 C+ +2 B- D C+ F -15 F+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 310 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 56% +3  83% 8 - 8 4 - 1 C +0 B- +5 C- D+ B D+ -4 C- B F
 Sat, Jan 17 326 Bucknell W 95 - 76 81% +14  97% 9 - 8 5 - 1 B- +5 A +13 A+ A A- D- -7 C- C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 260 @American L 66 - 70 44% -1  44% 9 - 9 5 - 2 D+ -7 D- -7 D F C- C+ +1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 258 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 66% -3  10% 10 - 9 6 - 2 D+ -7 D- -7 C B- F C -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 323 Holy Cross W 79 - 74 81% -0  38% 11 - 9 7 - 2 D -8 C +1 D+ B- A F+ -9 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Lehigh L 76 - 77 OT 54% -1  30% 11 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ A F+ D+ -3 F D+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 340 Army W 69 - 55 85% +8  57% 12 - 10 8 - 3 C -1 F+ -8 C- D+ F A +9 B+ B+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 326 @Bucknell W 78 - 59 63% +14  99% 13 - 10 9 - 3 B+ +11 D+ -3 D D- A- A+ +14 A+ C+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 323 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 63% +5  77% 14 - 10 10 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 F B- B- C +0 A- D- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Navy L 80 - 84 OT 47% -5  7% 14 - 11 10 - 4 D+ -7 C+ +3 A- C+ C+ F -11 F A F
 Mon, Feb 16 258 @Boston University L 58 - 85 43% -14  0% 14 - 12 10 - 5 F -29 F -10 F C+ B- F -25 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 21 310 Loyola Maryland W 79 - 71 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 322 Lafayette W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 163 @Navy L 67 - 74 26%
Totals 16 - 13 12 - 6 -4 C- -1 A B- D+ D+ -3 B- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B B- B- 37% 44% 37% D+ C+ D+ C- D+ C+ D C D D+ C- B- C- C- 40% 20% 40% C C- C C C D+ C- C C-
1.07 56% 43% 36% +2 -1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 16% .26 72% .19 1.13 60% 35% 35% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 15% .32 72% .19
Nov
3		 Michigan St. B A+ A A A+ 24% 24% 52% C- A+ F A+ D+ D+ F D- F B D- A+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% B+ A+ D- C+ D+ D F A+ F
1.00 69% 46% 39% +9 -1 1.17 10% 1.0 .10 19% .11 67% .07 1.16 69% 20% 25% -7 -2 0.85 46% 1.1 .49 14% .62 65% .41
Nov
7		 Northeastern F D A+ F F 41% 24% 35% D F D F F C+ D- A C- B- D- A+ A+ A- 51% 12% 37% F+ B C A+ A+ F F D F
0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23 1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Drexel A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 28% D A+ F A+ D+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 39% 4% 57% F F F A- C- F+ C A+ B
1.30 65% 64% 58% +21 -1 1.42 17% 1.7 .28 19% .48 89% .42 1.19 52% 50% 45% +8 +2 1.22 38% 0.7 .28 16% .26 53% .14
Nov
14		 Illinois C+ A+ B- F+ B+ 19% 49% 32% F B- D- B D+ A+ C- A+ B- B- C+ A+ A A+ 25% 15% 60% B+ A+ D B- C- D F F F
0.97 73% 39% 28% +1 -5 0.93 17% 1.0 .17 7% .15 89% .13 1.26 62% 25% 28% -6 0 0.89 45% 1.2 .52 10% .40 88% .35
Nov
17		 Siena C+ C+ A+ D- B- 55% 23% 21% B B F A D+ C+ B- A- B+ C+ B- F+ A C+ 36% 32% 32% B- B- F+ C- D- D+ D- F F
1.12 62% 55% 30% +5 +1 1.13 22% 1.2 .26 16% .31 76% .24 1.07 56% 50% 25% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 16% .33 83% .28
Nov
20		 Cornell F+ B D F D- 43% 27% 30% D D- D- C+ D C+ F B+ F A+ D+ A+ C B 40% 11% 49% C+ B A+ A+ A+ B- F F+ F
1.02 66% 35% 27% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.2 .29 14% .17 77% .13 1.04 64% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.10 20% 0.3 .05 20% .41 80% .33
Nov
28		 Albany D B- C- A- B 31% 21% 48% D B- F+ F F C+ F F F C- C+ D- F F 43% 21% 36% C F B+ A- A- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 36% 40% +5 -1 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .16 33% .05 1.04 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 19% .06 33% .02
Nov
30		 Fordham B B+ A+ B A+ 29% 22% 49% C+ A A- F F+ C+ D- A+ C- B+ C+ A- A B 45% 24% 31% C- B A- D+ B- C+ A F B+
1.12 64% 55% 38% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.5 .18 16% .20 82% .17 0.96 57% 33% 25% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .13 86% .11
Dec
10		 St. Bonaventure C+ B- B- F D 37% 30% 33% D- D A- B- A- A+ C+ F F D F C+ A+ C- 38% 33% 29% B+ C F A- C C F D F
1.10 62% 41% 26% -1 -1 0.96 37% 1.1 .41 9% .30 53% .16 1.22 75% 41% 27% +4 -2 1.08 43% 0.8 .35 17% .42 79% .33
Dec
21		 Florida C+ F C- A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% C- A+ D+ F+ D+ D- F F F F+ D- F B- D+ 48% 10% 42% C D+ F D+ F D+ F B+ F
0.93 29% 35% 65% +5 -2 1.08 17% 0.5 .09 20% .15 38% .06 1.39 70% 60% 30% +5 +2 1.17 56% 1.1 .61 14% .48 67% .32
Dec
28		 Harvard D- B+ F D- C- 48% 20% 31% C C- F A+ D C- F A F+ D C+ A F F 38% 20% 42% C+ F A+ F A- F+ A+ D+ A+
1.00 65% 18% 29% -3 +1 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 17% .18 80% .14 1.13 57% 27% 57% +12 0 1.25 13% 1.3 .17 15% .10 83% .09
Dec
31		 Lafayette B- B+ A+ B- B+ 40% 23% 37% C+ B+ F F F B A+ C- A+ D+ C+ F A C- 45% 16% 39% C- C- A F F C F C F
1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37 1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 Army B D C+ A+ B- 33% 20% 47% C- C+ C+ F D B+ D- A+ C D- B+ A- D- D+ 40% 9% 51% D+ D+ F+ F F F F A+ D
1.24 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 33% 0.9 .30 11% .30 88% .26 1.13 47% 25% 38% -3 +2 1.00 35% 1.2 .41 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
7		 American D+ C- F+ B- D 50% 24% 26% C D B+ F C- B- A F C+ C- B B F F 57% 6% 36% F F B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ A+
1.08 57% 30% 36% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 17% .47 61% .28 1.04 52% 33% 53% +6 +3 1.21 21% 0.5 .10 19% .12 50% .06
Jan
10		 Lehigh C+ F A+ A+ B- 45% 27% 29% C- B- C+ F D C+ B+ B- A- F B+ A+ F D- 45% 20% 35% F+ F+ F A+ D+ F F D- F
1.18 45% 62% 43% +4 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .27 15% .38 76% .29 1.20 50% 20% 59% +6 0 1.14 37% 0.6 .24 11% .45 77% .34
Jan
14		 Loyola Maryland B- B+ C- B C+ 29% 36% 35% F C- F A+ D+ B B+ A A D+ D- C C+ D 29% 19% 53% A- C- B- A- B F F B+ D-
1.19 69% 40% 37% +5 -3 1.07 21% 1.6 .33 12% .35 82% .28 1.11 65% 36% 32% 0 0 1.02 25% 0.8 .20 8% .35 65% .23
Jan
17		 Bucknell A A+ A A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C A+ A A- B D- C+ D- F A- A+ C 41% 8% 51% F+ C- A+ F C+ F F F F
1.33 76% 50% 44% +16 0 1.33 34% 1.4 .48 14% .36 68% .24 1.06 67% 25% 23% -6 +2 0.94 16% 1.6 .26 15% .40 92% .36
Jan
21		 American D- B- B- D C- 30% 36% 34% F D D- F F C- B F+ C C+ C- A+ C- C+ 45% 16% 39% C- C+ F F F A+ D+ F F+
0.98 64% 41% 31% +2 -3 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 19% .42 65% .28 1.04 60% 14% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .48 28% .29 86% .25
Jan
24		 Boston University D- F C+ A+ C+ 41% 30% 30% D C B+ D+ B- F F F F C F+ F A+ D+ 46% 15% 40% D- D A A+ A+ C- F D+ F
1.10 45% 44% 56% +6 -1 1.13 36% 1.0 .36 19% .20 58% .12 1.09 68% 86% 26% +7 +1 1.19 18% 0.6 .11 18% .45 74% .33
Jan
28		 Holy Cross C F A A C 38% 32% 30% F D+ C- A- B- A F+ B- D- F+ F F C F 35% 27% 38% C- F A+ F B F A+ A+ A+
1.19 48% 50% 41% +3 -2 1.05 28% 1.3 .36 9% .20 75% .15 1.12 68% 60% 33% +9 -1 1.18 7% 2.0 .14 11% .17 50% .08
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lehigh D+ C A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C A+ A F+ B- A+ A- D+ B+ D+ F F 38% 15% 48% F F B F D+ A+ B- D- C+
1.07 57% 67% 8% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.4 .48 20% .35 85% .30 1.08 50% 43% 52% +11 +1 1.25 18% 1.4 .25 25% .24 77% .19
Feb
4		 Army F+ B+ C+ C- C 35% 33% 33% F C- A F D+ F B- C B- A B A- B B 22% 18% 60% A B+ B A- B+ B F B F+
1.07 69% 40% 33% +4 -2 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 22% .38 74% .28 0.86 50% 25% 30% -8 -1 0.84 25% 0.8 .19 20% .35 67% .23
Feb
7		 Bucknell D+ C- A F+ D 36% 26% 38% D+ D F+ D+ D- A- C+ F C- A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% B+ A+ A- F C+ D F B- F
1.06 58% 50% 30% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.0 .26 14% .33 67% .22 0.80 53% 36% 13% -17 -1 0.67 19% 1.3 .24 18% .45 74% .33
Feb
11		 Holy Cross D+ F+ C- F F 39% 28% 33% D- F F+ A+ B- B- C+ A+ B C D- B- A+ A- 22% 33% 45% A- A- F A+ D- C+ F F F
1.08 52% 40% 28% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.7 .36 12% .28 82% .23 1.02 64% 38% 23% -6 -3 0.84 39% 0.7 .26 18% .48 85% .41
Feb
14		 Navy C+ F D A+ A- 37% 20% 43% B A- D- A+ C+ C+ A+ F A+ F D- D+ F F 38% 23% 38% C F A- A A F F B+ F
1.12 47% 33% 50% +6 0 1.13 24% 1.4 .32 17% .44 65% .29 1.17 65% 42% 40% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.9 .21 14% .47 69% .32
Feb
16		 Boston University F F D- A- F 34% 30% 36% F+ F C B- C+ B- F A+ D F B+ A+ F F+ 33% 14% 53% C D- F F F F A+ A A+
1.01 19% 36% 41% -10 -1 0.79 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 90% .18 1.48 50% 14% 54% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.8 .71 12% .16 63% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 1.9 24.4 54.9 15.8 97.0 2nd
3rd 1.9 0.6 2.4 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.1 25.0 54.9 16.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.3
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 16.1% 25.5% 25.5% 14.9 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.4 12.0
12-6 54.9% 19.6% 19.6% 15.7 0.2 3.3 7.3 44.1
11-7 25.0% 15.9% 15.9% 15.8 0.0 0.6 3.3 21.0
10-8 4.1% 15.0% 15.0% 15.9 0.1 0.6 3.5
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 15.5 80.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 14.9 0.5 22.2 66.6 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6%
Lose Out 1.8%