Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#142
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#111
Pace70.3#158
Improvement-0.7#230

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#159
First Shot+0.5#166
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#191
Layup/Dunks+2.8#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#121
Freethrows-3.4#336
Improvement-0.9#246

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#134
First Shot-0.3#173
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#89
Layups/Dunks-2.2#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement+0.2#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 16.6% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 98.1% 98.9% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 82.9% 75.7%
Conference Champion 17.1% 18.0% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.8% 4.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.9% 16.6% 12.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 340 @New Haven W 71-53 82%     1 - 0 +9.6 +1.7 +9.1
  Mon, Nov 10 7 @Connecticut L 62-89 3%     1 - 1 -2.6 +5.4 -9.3
  Thu, Nov 13 304 Umass Lowell W 86-72 87%     2 - 1 +3.0 +7.4 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 18 288 Boston University W 54-49 85%     3 - 1 -4.7 -18.2 +14.4
  Fri, Nov 21 315 @Lehigh W 82-67 76%     4 - 1 +9.0 +8.8 +0.6
  Sun, Nov 23 298 Longwood W 95-70 86%     5 - 1 +14.5 +13.6 +0.0
  Wed, Nov 26 277 @Fairfield W 106-77 67%     6 - 1 +25.7 +29.3 -4.1
  Wed, Dec 3 110 Hofstra W 72-70 52%     7 - 1 +2.7 +4.2 -1.4
  Sat, Dec 6 310 Albany W 93-65 88%     8 - 1 +16.4 +14.8 +1.9
  Tue, Dec 9 246 @Stony Brook L 73-77 OT 62%     8 - 2 -5.9 -8.3 +2.8
  Sun, Dec 21 65 @California L 56-74 17%     8 - 3 -6.7 -8.7 +1.2
  Sun, Dec 28 350 @North Florida W 87-76 84%    
  Mon, Jan 5 159 @Cornell L 83-85 43%    
  Sat, Jan 10 192 Harvard W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 226 @Brown W 69-67 58%    
  Mon, Jan 19 76 @Yale L 73-82 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 247 @Dartmouth W 78-75 62%    
  Fri, Jan 30 240 Penn W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 248 Princeton W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 159 Cornell W 86-82 64%    
  Fri, Feb 13 240 @Penn W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 248 @Princeton W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 247 Dartmouth W 81-72 80%    
  Fri, Feb 27 226 Brown W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 76 Yale L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 192 @Harvard W 71-70 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.5 5.8 4.7 1.9 0.3 17.1 1st
2nd 0.3 4.4 10.9 10.2 4.5 0.8 31.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.2 9.8 5.6 1.1 0.0 20.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 7.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 2.1 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.4 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.3 9.2 13.8 17.5 17.7 14.8 10.3 5.4 1.9 0.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.1
12-2 85.6% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.0
11-3 56.1% 5.8    3.0 2.5 0.2
10-4 23.9% 3.5    1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0
9-5 5.1% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 9.7 6.0 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.3% 43.0% 43.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-1 1.9% 40.8% 40.8% 12.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2
12-2 5.4% 33.9% 33.9% 12.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 3.6
11-3 10.3% 28.1% 28.1% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.7 0.0 7.4
10-4 14.8% 23.3% 23.3% 13.4 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.4
9-5 17.7% 19.2% 19.2% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 14.3
8-6 17.5% 15.0% 15.0% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 14.9
7-7 13.8% 5.6% 5.6% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.1
6-8 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
5-9 5.3% 5.3
4-10 2.4% 2.4
3-11 0.9% 0.9
2-12 0.3% 0.3
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.7 5.7 1.4 0.0 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 2.9 62.9 34.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%