Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#226
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#205
Pace73.8#46
Improvement+1.1#54

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#228
First Shot+0.0#185
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#299
Layup/Dunks+5.3#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#309
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#240
Freethrows-1.8#308
Improvement+1.3#25

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#223
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#333
Layups/Dunks+0.5#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#299
Freethrows+1.0#108
Improvement-0.2#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 5.8% 16.8% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 18.2% 40.2% 13.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 47 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 350   Houston Christian W 77-66 87%     1 - 0 -4.3 -9.6 +4.7
  Nov 15, 2022 37   @ North Carolina St. L 74-107 6%     1 - 1 -18.8 -4.2 -9.6
  Nov 19, 2022 195   Bryant L 85-91 54%     1 - 2 -10.1 -7.4 -1.6
  Nov 23, 2022 313   Stony Brook W 83-50 77%     2 - 2 +22.1 +2.5 +18.9
  Nov 27, 2022 161   Eastern Washington W 90-79 48%     3 - 2 +8.6 +4.6 +2.7
  Nov 30, 2022 302   Eastern Michigan L 68-80 76%     3 - 3 -22.5 -13.5 -8.8
  Dec 04, 2022 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-74 29%     3 - 4 -6.2 -6.8 +0.5
  Dec 13, 2022 269   @ Howard L 59-71 49%     3 - 5 -14.8 -18.8 +4.7
  Dec 17, 2022 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 53-79 8%     3 - 6 0 - 1 -13.4 -17.7 +6.1
  Dec 21, 2022 344   Incarnate Word W 79-74 86%     4 - 6 -9.6 -3.3 -6.4
  Dec 31, 2022 80   @ North Texas L 57-72 13%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -5.7 +2.0 -10.5
  Jan 05, 2023 110   Charlotte W 62-60 35%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +2.8 -3.1 +6.2
  Jan 07, 2023 71   UAB W 90-87 OT 22%     6 - 7 2 - 2 +8.1 +3.2 +4.3
  Jan 11, 2023 52   Florida Atlantic L 73-77 OT 17%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +3.1 +0.4 +2.8
  Jan 14, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky L 59-70 28%     6 - 9 2 - 4 -8.0 -10.2 +1.8
  Jan 16, 2023 80   North Texas L 57-64 25%     6 - 10 2 - 5 -3.1 -1.8 -2.5
  Jan 19, 2023 175   @ UTEP L 61-81 29%     6 - 11 2 - 6 -17.4 -1.1 -17.6
  Jan 21, 2023 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-72 59%     7 - 11 3 - 6 -0.4 +3.5 -3.7
  Jan 26, 2023 163   Western Kentucky W 78-69 48%     8 - 11 4 - 6 +6.6 +5.8 +1.1
  Jan 28, 2023 121   Middle Tennessee W 82-74 39%     9 - 11 5 - 6 +7.9 +7.7 +0.0
  Feb 02, 2023 110   @ Charlotte L 62-71 18%    
  Feb 04, 2023 71   @ UAB L 70-84 9%    
  Feb 09, 2023 137   Louisiana Tech L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 170   Rice L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 18, 2023 121   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-75 21%    
  Feb 23, 2023 175   UTEP L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 25, 2023 312   Texas San Antonio W 78-70 78%    
  Mar 02, 2023 137   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-77 24%    
  Mar 04, 2023 170   @ Rice L 75-81 29%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.3 3.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 5.6 0.8 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 1.2 9.2 2.5 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.4 8.1 7.8 0.3 16.6 7th
8th 0.2 4.9 12.8 1.6 0.0 19.5 8th
9th 0.3 3.7 12.1 4.9 0.1 21.1 9th
10th 1.2 5.3 3.8 0.2 10.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 1.5 9.2 21.2 27.2 22.6 12.4 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 4.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
10-10 12.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.3
9-11 22.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 22.4
8-12 27.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.1
7-13 21.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.2
6-14 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5% 0.4% 16.0 0.4