Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #162
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #167
Pace 65.8 #257
Improvement +0.1 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 B- C- D- D B-
Defense #157 C+ C D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.31 #38 +2.6 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #312 0.99 #9 -1.2 #248
Three Pointers 48% #41 0.92 #307 +1.2 #136
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #91 +2.6 #98
Freethrows 0.28 #278 67% #333 0.19 #316
Second Chance 29.9% #206 0.95 #284 0.29 #240
Turnovers 19.9% #334
Total Offense -0.5 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #243 1.14 #143 +1.6 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #75 0.81 #273 -1.7 #306
Three Pointers 40% #235 0.94 #71 +2.3 #93
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #110 +2.2 #104
Freethrows 0.24 #24 72% #170 0.17 #29
Second Chance 30.9% #195 1.06 #227 0.33 #217
Turnovers 14.8% #305
Total Defense +0.2 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #73 -1.1% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #107 -2.8% #124
Possession Length 17.6 #216 17.3 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #154 0.19 #245
Improvement -0.2 #194 +0.4 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 20.8% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 97.8%
Conference Champion 11.0% 12.3% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round20.1% 20.8% 15.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 35 - 35 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 97 High Point L 71 - 97 29% -17  0 - 1 -20 -5 C+ D- F -14 F C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 136 Troy L 61 - 64 55% -7  0 - 2 -5 -12 D+ D F +7 B A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 110 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 25% -10  0 - 3 -9 -6 D+ D+ D- -5 C- B F+
 Sun, Nov 23 211 Queens W 90 - 79 70% +11  1 - 3 +5 +19 A+ F+ A+ -13 B- F F
 Thu, Nov 27 137 Richmond W 73 - 72 43% +6  2 - 3 +2 +1 B B+ F +2 C B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 89 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 27% -4  2 - 4 -1 +0 B+ F+ D -1 B- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 202 @Elon W 97 - 88 47% -1  3 - 4 +9 +19 A- D- A+ -10 B C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 163 Harvard W 79 - 69 62% +7  4 - 4 +7 +6 A+ B F +0 B- B F
 Thu, Dec 18 328 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 75% +2  5 - 4 -0 -4 C D F +4 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 252 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 77% +6  6 - 4 -0 +4 C+ B- B- -4 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 31 152 Mercer W 74 - 72 60% +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -1 +0 B- D- B- -1 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 278 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 81% -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -13 -5 C- D- C+ -8 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 7 269 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 60% +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +8 +5 C B- D+ +3 C C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 359 VMI W 69 - 48 94% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +3 -10 D- B F +14 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 226 @Samford W 77 - 73 51% +2  10 - 5 4 - 1 +3 +1 C D+ C +2 C+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 17 199 Wofford L 70 - 74 69% +3  10 - 6 4 - 2 -9 -1 F+ A+ D- -9 D D D
 Wed, Jan 21 345 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 79% +6  10 - 7 4 - 3 -11 -2 D F C -9 C+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 311 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 71% +5  11 - 7 5 - 3 +17 +20 A+ D+ A+ -0 C B- D+
 Thu, Jan 29 226 Samford W 78 - 73 73% +4  12 - 7 6 - 3 -2 +6 A- A+ F -8 B- F F
 Sun, Feb 1 269 Chattanooga W 75 - 70 80% +12  13 - 7 7 - 3 -4 +3 B- C+ D- -6 B F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 132 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 75 OT 31% +5  13 - 8 7 - 4 +1 -2 A D+ F +3 C+ A+ D-
 Sun, Feb 8 311 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 68 87%
 Wed, Feb 11 152 @Mercer L 75 - 79 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 359 @VMI W 78 - 67 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 132 East Tennessee St. W 71 - 70 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 199 @Wofford L 74 - 75 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 345 The Citadel W 76 - 61 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 @Western Carolina W 78 - 75 63%
Totals 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0 -1 B- C- D- +0 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.2 3.9 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 12.7 11.8 0.9 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 11.1 15.0 1.2 28.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 10.8 14.1 3.0 29.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 3.8 13.3 27.0 31.5 19.2 4.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 82.2% 3.9    2.2 1.7 0.1
13-5 32.4% 6.2    0.8 3.1 1.9 0.4
12-6 2.7% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 3.0 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.8% 33.5% 33.5% 13.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 3.2
13-5 19.2% 26.8% 26.8% 14.1 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.2 0.0 14.1
12-6 31.5% 20.1% 20.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 3.0 2.8 0.2 25.2
11-7 27.0% 17.8% 17.8% 14.8 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.6 22.2
10-8 13.3% 12.8% 12.8% 15.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 11.6
9-9 3.8% 12.8% 12.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.4
8-10 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 14.4 79.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 13.2 11.9 56.3 30.0 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%