Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 179
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 195
Pace 65.8 254
Improvement -1.7 251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 217 C+ C- D D B-
Defense C 161 C+ C+ D B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 204 B 64% 54 +2.0 108
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 316 A 49% 9 -1.4 259
Three Pointers 48% 39 D- 30% 326 +0.9 147
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 72 C+ +0.8 137
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 118
Second Chance C- 29.5% 207 D+ 0.96 280 C- 0.28 243
Turnovers D 19.2% 315
Freethrows D+ 0.28 256 D 68% 318 D 0.19 294
Total Offense C- -1.6 217

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 60% 31 D 13.2% 304
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 7% 363 D- 8.6% 339
Three Pointers C+ 85% 164 C+ 0.7% 146
Total B- 60% 87 D+ 6.5% 283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 B 53% 70 -2.2 103
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 115 D+ 41% 281 +1.1 273
Three Pointers 40% 210 C+ 33% 149 -0.8 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 120 C+ -1.4 117
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 120
Second Chance C 30.7% 198 C+ 0.98 107 C+ 0.30 154
Turnovers D 14.5% 316
Freethrows B+ 0.25 28 C 73% 202 B+ 0.18 35
Total Defense C +0.4 161

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 154 C 10.9% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 52 D+ 2.9% 297
Three Pointers C+ 82% 116 B+ 2.0% 34
Total B- 52% 107 C 5.5% 181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 231 17.2 170
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 203 0.18 224
Improvement -2.0 #284 +0.3 #170

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 16% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 99% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 95%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round14% 16% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 89 High Point L 71 - 97 23% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -20 D- -7 C+ D F F -12 F C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 146 Troy L 61 - 64 54% -7  0% 0 - 2 D+ -5 F -14 D+ D F A +9 B A A-
 Fri, Nov 14 90 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 16% -10  3% 0 - 3 D+ -7 D- -8 D+ D+ D- C -0 C B+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 203 Queens W 90 - 79 67% +11  95% 1 - 3 B- +5 A+ +17 A+ F+ A+ F -10 B F F
 Thu, Nov 27 129 Richmond W 73 - 72 38% +6  96% 2 - 3 C+ +3 C- -1 B+ B+ F B +4 C B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 99 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 27% -4  12% 2 - 4 C- -2 D+ -3 B+ F D- C+ +1 B D D+
 Wed, Dec 3 204 @Elon W 97 - 88 44% -1  49% 3 - 4 B +9 A+ +16 A- D- A D- -7 B- C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 167 Harvard W 79 - 69 58% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +7 B- +5 A+ B+ F B- +2 B- B F
 Thu, Dec 18 319 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 71% +2  74% 5 - 4 C +0 D- -6 C D+ F B+ +6 C+ C B-
 Sun, Dec 21 257 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 76% +6  85% 6 - 4 C -0 C +0 C B- B- C -1 B- B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 175 Mercer W 74 - 72 61% +3  82% 7 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 D+ -2 B D- B- C+ +0 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 253 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 75% -3  21% 7 - 5 1 - 1 D -11 D- -6 C- D- B- D+ -5 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 7 282 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 60% +5  64% 8 - 5 2 - 1 B- +7 C +1 C B D B+ +6 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 358 VMI W 69 - 48 94% +10  83% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +2 F -13 F+ B+ F A+ +17 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 186 @Samford W 77 - 73 41% +2  56% 10 - 5 4 - 1 B- +5 C +1 C C- D+ B +5 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 230 Wofford L 70 - 74 71% +3  72% 10 - 6 4 - 2 D -11 D -5 F A+ F+ D- -7 D D D
 Wed, Jan 21 342 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 78% +6  68% 10 - 7 4 - 3 D- -11 D -5 D- F C+ D- -7 C+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 23 300 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 64% +5  89% 11 - 7 5 - 3 A +18 A+ +17 A+ D A+ B +4 C+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 186 Samford W 78 - 73 64% +4  75% 12 - 7 6 - 3 C +0 B +6 A A+ F D -5 B F F
 Sun, Feb 1 282 Chattanooga W 75 - 70 80% +12  95% 13 - 7 7 - 3 D+ -5 C- -1 B- C+ F D+ -3 B F B-
 Wed, Feb 4 131 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 75 OT 28% +5  82% 13 - 8 7 - 4 C +1 D -4 A+ D F B+ +5 C+ A+ D-
 Sun, Feb 8 300 UNC Greensboro L 64 - 67 82% -4  13% 13 - 9 7 - 5 D- -14 F -13 F D- F C -1 D- A D+
 Wed, Feb 11 175 @Mercer L 64 - 69 38% +2  67% 13 - 10 7 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 F D+ A B+ +6 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 358 @VMI W 90 - 72 85% +12  99% 14 - 10 8 - 6 B- +5 B- +5 A- C C C -0 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 18 131 East Tennessee St. L 69 - 78 50% -3  22% 14 - 11 8 - 7 D -10 D -5 F C A+ D -5 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 230 @Wofford L 74 - 75 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 342 The Citadel W 75 - 61 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 253 @Western Carolina W 76 - 75 53%
Totals 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1 C- -2 A C+ B- C +0 D- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B A D- C+ 38% 25% 48% B- C+ C- D+ C- D D+ D D C B D+ C+ C+ 38% 22% 40% C+ C+ C C+ C+ D B+ C B+
1.06 64% 49% 30% +1 +1 1.05 29% 1.0 .28 19% .28 68% .19 1.08 53% 41% 33% -1 0 0.99 31% 1.0 .30 15% .25 73% .20
Nov
3		 High Point D- A- A+ F+ C+ 40% 17% 44% C C+ A+ F D F B+ B- B+ F F D F+ F 43% 28% 30% A F A- F C+ F A+ A+ A+
0.97 68% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.08 44% 0.6 .26 30% .37 74% .27 1.33 81% 41% 39% +13 -1 1.26 26% 1.3 .34 8% .22 53% .12
Nov
7		 Troy F F F A D 41% 11% 48% A- D+ D+ F+ D F D D D- A B F A- B 35% 10% 55% C+ B A+ B A A- B+ B B+
0.89 42% 20% 41% -4 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16 0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17
Nov
14		 Northern Iowa D- A+ A+ F D- 39% 4% 57% A D+ D+ D- D+ D- D- F F C C- F B+ C- 45% 19% 36% C+ C C- A+ B+ D- D- F F
0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12 1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24
Nov
23		 Queens A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 41% 6% 53% B+ A+ B- F F+ A+ C+ F+ C- F B- F+ B- B- 27% 25% 48% A+ B B+ F F F C+ F C-
1.43 81% 67% 41% +16 +2 1.39 37% 0.6 .23 6% .36 67% .24 1.25 57% 46% 32% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.9 .45 6% .29 82% .24
Nov
27		 Richmond C- A+ B- D+ A- 26% 26% 49% C- B+ B B B+ F A+ F D B C B C B- 41% 12% 47% F C F A+ B+ A+ C F D
1.06 83% 42% 30% +5 -2 1.09 35% 1.3 .44 23% .40 43% .17 1.04 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 39% 0.5 .19 25% .33 88% .29
Nov
28		 Illinois St. D+ C- B+ B+ B 39% 14% 47% A B+ D- F F D- F F F C+ D- D+ B- C 20% 37% 43% A+ B C F D D+ D+ B C-
0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11 1.08 70% 42% 32% +2 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21
Dec
3		 Elon A+ A+ C- B 38% 0% 62% A+ A- C F D- A A+ A- A+ D- B+ A+ C- B 45% 2% 53% D- B- C D+ C- F F+ D- F
1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38 1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29
Dec
6		 Harvard B- A+ A+ F A+ 41% 11% 48% B- A+ D A+ B+ F A+ A A+ B- B D F+ C 35% 38% 27% A+ B- B B B F A- A+ A+
1.16 83% 100% 24% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.5 .39 23% .38 80% .31 1.01 53% 43% 40% +2 -3 1.02 23% 0.9 .20 13% .19 55% .10
Dec
18		 Manhattan D- C+ A C+ C- 42% 8% 50% A- C C+ F+ D+ F C+ F F B+ F C+ A C 28% 30% 43% A- C+ F+ A C B- C+ A+ B
1.08 62% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.14 39% 0.9 .36 24% .27 36% .10 0.98 67% 38% 26% -3 -2 0.93 33% 0.9 .29 17% .28 69% .19
Dec
21		 Charleston Southern C D+ D C+ C 38% 21% 41% C+ C F A+ B- B- B A- A- C D D+ A+ B 43% 8% 49% D B- A- D B- F A+ A+ A+
1.13 52% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.8 .35 11% .39 77% .30 1.02 63% 40% 26% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.0 .23 12% .14 56% .08
Dec
31		 Mercer D+ C B- A B- 45% 14% 41% B B B- F D- B- A+ F B C+ A+ D+ B- A 32% 35% 33% A+ A C F D- F A+ D A+
1.10 57% 43% 43% +5 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23 1.07 39% 40% 32% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12
Jan
3		 Western Carolina D- A+ D D+ C 27% 25% 48% D- C- C- F D- B- D F F D+ A+ B F D+ 40% 33% 27% A C F D+ F C- C+ A B
1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13 1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17
Jan
7		 Chattanooga C D+ F A- C- 45% 8% 47% A- C C- A B D C B- C B+ A+ A F C 27% 18% 55% C C D- A+ B- B- A+ C A+
1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26 0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11
Jan
10		 VMI F C- A- D F 24% 15% 61% C- F+ A C- B+ F A F C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% B- A+ D- C D+ A+ B- B- B-
1.05 60% 50% 32% 0 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22 0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18
Jan
14		 Samford C B- A+ F C 27% 24% 49% C C A F C- D+ D+ F+ D B C- A+ A+ B 46% 15% 38% F+ B- A- F C+ C- C- F D-
1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18 1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29
Jan
17		 Wofford D F A+ F F+ 23% 26% 51% F F B+ A A+ F+ C- C+ C D- D- F B D- 44% 16% 40% C- D C+ F D D A D- A-
1.10 45% 58% 25% -5 -2 0.89 37% 1.4 .51 19% .29 80% .23 1.16 64% 50% 30% +2 +1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 13% .23 77% .18
Jan
21		 The Citadel D A C+ F F+ 44% 9% 47% B- D- C- F F C+ C- A+ B- D- F A+ A+ B- 37% 10% 53% F+ C+ D F F F+ F F F
1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22 1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38
Jan
23		 UNC Greensboro A+ A F A+ A+ 36% 15% 49% B- A+ F A+ D A+ F+ A+ C B F A+ A+ B- 40% 13% 47% F C+ B+ D- C+ D+ B D+ B-
1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19 1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24
Jan
29		 Samford B A+ A+ F A 37% 23% 40% B- A B- A+ A+ F A+ C A+ D A- F A+ C+ 18% 38% 44% A+ B F C F F C A+ B+
1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30 1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20
Feb
1		 Chattanooga C- D+ A+ C+ C+ 50% 11% 39% A- B- D- A+ C+ F B B B+ D+ A D- B B 25% 22% 53% B B F D+ F B- D+ C C-
1.14 55% 60% 35% +2 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30 1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Tennessee St. D A+ A+ D+ A 45% 9% 47% B+ A+ D D D F F F F B+ B- A F C+ 44% 25% 31% B C+ B+ A+ A+ D- D+ B C
0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12 1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25
Feb
8		 UNC Greensboro F F+ A F F 59% 9% 33% A+ F D+ F D- F B+ B+ A- C A+ F+ F D- 44% 19% 38% F+ D- B A+ A D+ C+ C+ C+
1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25 1.06 33% 44% 56% +3 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
11		 Mercer F+ F F D F 35% 9% 56% B F F+ B+ D+ A D+ F F+ B+ A+ D- B+ A+ 53% 14% 33% F A+ C- A B+ F C- F F+
0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14 1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30
Feb
14		 VMI B- A+ A+ C+ A- 26% 8% 66% B- A- F A+ C C B- B- B C A+ F D D+ 28% 4% 69% D- D+ B A+ A F D+ F F+
1.27 85% 100% 36% +14 +1 1.32 30% 1.3 .40 17% .34 75% .25 1.01 33% 50% 35% -5 +1 0.94 21% 0.6 .12 10% .31 85% .27
Feb
18		 East Tennessee St. D B+ A+ F F 30% 12% 58% C F B- D C A+ A+ C A+ D A+ D F F+ 41% 18% 41% C F+ D+ A+ A+ C C- B- C
1.01 67% 50% 17% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 13% .47 75% .35 1.14 43% 44% 52% +6 +1 1.16 30% 0.5 .16 16% .33 74% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 10.9 10.9 2nd
3rd 2.9 11.7 14.6 3rd
4th 0.7 21.8 2.1 24.6 4th
5th 0.1 15.4 21.1 36.6 5th
6th 1.1 9.2 0.2 10.5 6th
7th 1.5 1.2 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.8 26.5 46.1 24.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 24.6% 16.4% 16.4% 14.2 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.1 0.0 20.5
10-8 46.1% 14.6% 14.6% 15.0 0.0 1.3 4.2 1.2 39.4
9-9 26.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.3 0.2 1.7 1.3 23.3
8-10 2.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 14.8 85.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 11.8 59.9 27.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.6%
Lose Out 0.6%