Furman
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#83
Pace68.8#191
Improvement-2.3#313

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#72
First Shot+2.8#98
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#92
Layup/Dunks-0.1#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#32
Freethrows-1.9#281
Improvement-0.9#257

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot-2.9#271
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#45
Layups/Dunks-0.5#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows+1.1#126
Improvement-1.4#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 23.7% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 2.4% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.4 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 91.5% 96.3% 86.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 91.4% 85.4%
Conference Champion 25.5% 29.9% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round20.1% 23.0% 17.1%
Second Round3.8% 4.8% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 50.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 59 - 10
Quad 412 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 37   @ Louisville W 80-72 OT 16%     1 - 0 +22.4 +7.2 +14.3
  Nov 15, 2021 57   @ Belmont L 89-95 OT 24%     1 - 1 +5.1 +6.9 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2021 253   Radford W 81-64 86%     2 - 1 +9.3 +8.1 +1.4
  Nov 21, 2021 108   Navy L 66-77 60%     2 - 2 -9.9 -2.8 -7.2
  Nov 27, 2021 335   @ South Carolina Upstate W 87-77 89%     3 - 2 +0.3 +12.4 -11.6
  Nov 30, 2021 263   @ High Point W 74-70 2OT 73%     4 - 2 +1.5 -7.2 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2021 185   College of Charleston W 91-88 OT 77%     5 - 2 -0.9 +1.4 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2021 157   @ Winthrop W 80-79 51%    
  Dec 10, 2021 170   Appalachian St. W 71-64 74%    
  Dec 14, 2021 24   @ North Carolina L 73-86 12%    
  Dec 17, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 66-75 21%    
  Dec 21, 2021 276   Presbyterian W 73-60 89%    
  Dec 29, 2021 243   Samford W 85-74 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 227   @ VMI W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 05, 2022 174   @ UNC Greensboro W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 08, 2022 177   Mercer W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 12, 2022 131   East Tennessee St. W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 15, 2022 88   @ Chattanooga L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 19, 2022 296   Western Carolina W 84-70 90%    
  Jan 22, 2022 124   @ Wofford L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 26, 2022 227   VMI W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 29, 2022 177   @ Mercer W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 02, 2022 238   The Citadel W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 174   UNC Greensboro W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 07, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-70 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 88   Chattanooga W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 16, 2022 296   @ Western Carolina W 81-73 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 124   Wofford W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 23, 2022 243   @ Samford W 82-77 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 78-73 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.7 7.1 4.5 1.7 0.4 25.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 6.3 7.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.2 6.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.2 4.5 1.3 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 5.6 8.4 10.9 13.6 14.9 14.0 11.6 8.4 4.7 1.7 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 97.2% 4.5    4.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.0% 7.1    5.3 1.7 0.1
14-4 57.8% 6.7    3.7 2.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 27.7% 3.9    1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.6% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.5% 25.5 16.5 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 76.8% 50.5% 26.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 53.2%
17-1 1.7% 59.1% 43.5% 15.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 27.5%
16-2 4.7% 50.0% 41.1% 8.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 15.1%
15-3 8.4% 39.1% 35.3% 3.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.1 6.0%
14-4 11.6% 31.2% 30.3% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.2 0.2 8.0 1.3%
13-5 14.0% 22.9% 22.8% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.8 0.2%
12-6 14.9% 18.7% 18.6% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 12.2 0.0%
11-7 13.6% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.7
10-8 10.9% 10.0% 10.0% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.8
9-9 8.4% 7.5% 7.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.8
8-10 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.3
7-11 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.6% 19.3% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.4 7.0 6.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 79.4 1.5%