Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #158
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 #146
Pace 66.1 #268
Improvement +1.0 #123

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #158 B D D+ D+ B
Defense #184 B A C- F B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #180 1.35 #26 +3.6 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #328 0.94 #17 -2.2 #288
Three Pointers 49% #38 0.95 #254 +2.6 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #72 +4.0 #78
Freethrows 15.8 #268 68% #303 10.7 #287
Second Chance 29.9% #213 0.92 #313 0.28 #273
Turnovers 18.2% #272
Total Offense +0.3 #158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.11 #125 +2.9 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #44 0.77 #214 -2.4 #333
Three Pointers 39% #239 0.91 #61 +3.1 #73
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #70 +3.6 #71
Freethrows 12.4 #14 72% #167 8.9 #349
Second Chance 30.5% #162 1.12 #276 0.34 #234
Turnovers 13.3% #339
Total Defense -0.4 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #62 -1.9% #41
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #88 -5.2% #95
Possession Length 17.1 #161 17.7 #257
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #95 0.19 #251
Improvement +0.9 #120 +0.1 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 23.5% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 95.2% 97.8% 91.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 96.1% 85.0%
Conference Champion 22.2% 28.5% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round20.7% 23.4% 16.6%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 91 High Point L 71-97 28%     -16.8   0 - 1 -20.0 -5.4 -13.5
  Fri, Nov 7 128 Troy L 61-64 53%     -7.0   0 - 2 -4.0 -10.4 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 14 90 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 19%     -10.1   0 - 3 -6.8 -4.0 -4.2
  Sun, Nov 23 225 Queens W 90-79 74%     11.0   1 - 3 +4.3 +18.0 -12.4
  Thu, Nov 27 118 Richmond W 73-72 39%     6.2   2 - 3 +3.9 +1.3 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 28 74 Illinois St. L 65-72 22%     -3.6   2 - 4 +0.9 -0.5 +1.0
  Wed, Dec 3 167 @Elon W 97-88 40%     -0.8   3 - 4 +11.4 +18.5 -7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 192 Harvard W 79-69 69%     7.2   4 - 4 +4.9 +5.9 -0.7
  Thu, Dec 18 306 @Manhattan W 75-68 69%     2.3   5 - 4 +1.7 -2.6 +4.4
  Sun, Dec 21 226 Charleston Southern W 84-76 74%     5.7   6 - 4 +1.3 +3.1 -2.3
  Wed, Dec 31 174 Mercer W 74-72 65%     3.5   7 - 4 1 - 0 -2.0 +1.7 -3.7
  Sat, Jan 3 284 Western Carolina L 77-80 OT 82%     -2.8   7 - 5 1 - 1 -13.0 -1.5 -11.4
  Wed, Jan 7 265 @Chattanooga W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 334 VMI W 81-67 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 227 @Samford W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 221 Wofford W 76-70 72%    
  Wed, Jan 21 358 @The Citadel W 77-66 85%    
  Sat, Jan 24 280 @UNC Greensboro W 75-71 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 227 Samford W 77-70 73%    
  Sun, Feb 1 265 Chattanooga W 77-68 79%    
  Wed, Feb 4 129 @East Tennessee St. L 69-74 32%    
  Sun, Feb 8 280 UNC Greensboro W 78-68 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 174 @Mercer L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 334 @VMI W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 129 East Tennessee St. W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 221 @Wofford W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Feb 25 358 The Citadel W 80-63 94%    
  Sat, Feb 28 284 @Western Carolina W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.9 7.1 5.7 2.6 0.5 22.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 8.0 9.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 7.9 6.9 2.1 0.2 19.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 6.0 5.2 0.9 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.8 8.0 12.5 16.3 17.2 16.4 11.7 6.5 2.6 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 99.6% 2.6    2.4 0.2
15-3 86.7% 5.7    4.5 1.2 0.0
14-4 60.7% 7.1    4.1 2.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 29.9% 4.9    1.5 2.2 1.0 0.1
12-6 7.9% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 13.1 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 50.5% 50.5% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 2.6% 43.0% 43.0% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-3 6.5% 38.4% 38.4% 13.4 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 4.0
14-4 11.7% 31.4% 31.4% 13.8 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.1
13-5 16.4% 27.1% 27.1% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.0 0.0 11.9
12-6 17.2% 21.1% 21.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.1 13.6
11-7 16.3% 15.2% 15.2% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 13.8
10-8 12.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 11.0
9-9 8.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 7.2
8-10 4.8% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 4.5
7-11 2.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
6-12 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.7 4.3 8.8 5.8 1.2 79.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.1 12.8 66.0 19.1 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%