Furman
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#119
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#24
Pace67.2#230
Improvement-0.2#194

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#158
First Shot+0.5#164
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#177
Layup/Dunks-4.7#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#18
Freethrows-1.6#270
Improvement-0.1#193

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#108
First Shot+5.4#39
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#350
Layups/Dunks-5.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.9#1
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement-0.1#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 25.3% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 98.2% 99.3% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 93.6% 88.7%
Conference Champion 31.0% 34.5% 26.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round22.6% 25.2% 19.0%
Second Round3.2% 3.8% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 413 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 132   @ Belmont W 76-74 43%     1 - 0 +6.5 +3.4 +3.1
  Nov 11, 2024 212   Jacksonville W 78-69 78%     2 - 0 +3.6 -0.1 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 220   Tulane W 75-67 80%     3 - 0 +1.8 +3.1 -0.8
  Nov 23, 2024 276   @ Charleston Southern W 67-46 72%     4 - 0 +17.7 -2.8 +21.9
  Nov 26, 2024 123   Seattle W 61-56 51%     5 - 0 +7.3 -2.6 +10.5
  Nov 30, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 51-86 5%     5 - 1 -13.7 -8.2 -7.6
  Dec 04, 2024 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 76-73 54%     6 - 1 +4.7 +8.4 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2024 108   Princeton W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 14, 2024 303   South Carolina St. W 77-64 89%    
  Dec 21, 2024 241   @ Harvard W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 01, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 08, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 11, 2025 142   Wofford W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 135   East Tennessee St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 200   Chattanooga W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 22, 2025 346   @ VMI W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 232   @ Mercer W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 29, 2025 121   Samford W 82-79 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 05, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 200   @ Chattanooga W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 232   Mercer W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 121   @ Samford L 79-82 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 346   VMI W 80-62 94%    
  Feb 26, 2025 325   The Citadel W 74-59 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 70-71 45%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.2 8.2 8.7 5.6 2.7 0.6 31.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.5 8.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.2 6.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.1 1.7 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.9 1.3 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.9 9.9 12.9 14.7 14.9 13.3 9.9 5.7 2.7 0.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.6 0.0
16-2 97.8% 5.6    5.2 0.4
15-3 87.7% 8.7    6.7 1.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 61.8% 8.2    4.3 3.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 28.2% 4.2    1.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.6% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.0% 31.0 20.7 8.0 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 66.8% 60.6% 6.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15.8%
17-1 2.7% 52.3% 51.6% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 1.4%
16-2 5.7% 43.5% 43.4% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 0.2%
15-3 9.9% 37.9% 37.9% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.9 0.0 6.2 0.0%
14-4 13.3% 31.0% 31.0% 12.5 0.1 2.3 1.6 0.2 9.2
13-5 14.9% 24.8% 24.8% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 11.2
12-6 14.7% 19.3% 19.3% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 11.8
11-7 12.9% 13.5% 13.5% 13.3 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 11.1
10-8 9.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 8.7
9-9 6.9% 8.5% 8.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.4
8-10 4.1% 6.4% 6.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
7-11 2.3% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 22.5% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 10.0 7.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 77.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 10.4 10.4 10.4 8.3 13.5 9.4 27.1 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 28.6% 10.8 7.1 21.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 21.4% 10.8 7.1 10.7 3.6