Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#130
Pace67.9#228
Improvement+3.5#23

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#139
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#290
Layup/Dunks+2.1#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#92
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+2.2#44

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#163
First Shot+1.1#132
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#274
Layups/Dunks-0.8#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#122
Freethrows+3.8#9
Improvement+1.3#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.2% 28.7% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 96.8% 98.5% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 97.3% 89.1%
Conference Champion 37.4% 45.4% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round26.1% 28.7% 20.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 415 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 101 High Point L 71-97 33%     0 - 1 -20.7 -5.8 -13.9
  Fri, Nov 7 139 Troy L 61-64 59%     0 - 2 -4.5 -10.7 +6.1
  Fri, Nov 14 93 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 22%     0 - 3 -7.0 -4.7 -3.8
  Sun, Nov 23 211 Queens W 90-79 75%     1 - 3 +4.7 +18.8 -12.8
  Thu, Nov 27 104 Richmond W 73-72 36%     2 - 3 +5.5 +3.8 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 82 Illinois St. L 65-72 28%     2 - 4 -0.1 -2.3 +1.9
  Wed, Dec 3 166 @Elon W 97-88 44%     3 - 4 +11.5 +19.1 -7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 192 Harvard W 79-69 72%     4 - 4 +4.9 +6.0 -0.9
  Thu, Dec 18 313 @Manhattan W 75-68 74%     5 - 4 +1.2 -3.2 +4.4
  Sun, Dec 21 239 Charleston Southern W 84-76 79%     6 - 4 +0.4 +3.1 -3.2
  Wed, Dec 31 174 Mercer W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 299 Western Carolina W 81-70 86%    
  Wed, Jan 7 235 @Chattanooga W 74-72 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 332 VMI W 82-68 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 227 @Samford W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 220 Wofford W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Jan 21 355 @The Citadel W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 294 @UNC Greensboro W 76-71 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 227 Samford W 78-70 77%    
  Sun, Feb 1 235 Chattanooga W 77-69 77%    
  Wed, Feb 4 141 @East Tennessee St. L 72-75 38%    
  Sun, Feb 8 294 UNC Greensboro W 79-68 84%    
  Wed, Feb 11 174 @Mercer L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 332 @VMI W 79-71 77%    
  Wed, Feb 18 141 East Tennessee St. W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 220 @Wofford W 74-72 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 355 The Citadel W 80-62 94%    
  Sat, Feb 28 299 @Western Carolina W 78-73 69%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.0 9.7 10.4 7.1 3.2 0.7 37.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.4 8.8 5.8 1.6 0.2 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.2 6.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 8.2 11.4 14.8 16.2 15.8 12.0 7.3 3.2 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2 0.0
16-2 97.8% 7.1    6.6 0.5
15-3 86.6% 10.4    7.9 2.4 0.1
14-4 61.4% 9.7    5.2 3.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 30.8% 5.0    1.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.2% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.4% 37.4 25.3 9.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 54.9% 54.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.2% 50.1% 50.1% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6
16-2 7.3% 42.7% 42.7% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 4.2
15-3 12.0% 38.4% 38.4% 13.5 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.4
14-4 15.8% 33.5% 33.5% 13.9 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.9 0.0 10.5
13-5 16.2% 27.1% 27.1% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.0 11.8
12-6 14.8% 21.3% 21.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 11.6
11-7 11.4% 15.6% 15.6% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 9.6
10-8 8.2% 12.4% 12.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 7.2
9-9 5.1% 11.2% 11.2% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.5
8-10 3.0% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.8
7-11 1.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3
6-12 0.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.2 10.6 5.7 1.0 73.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 1.7 0.9 39.3 50.4 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%