Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #275
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 #278
Pace 72.3 #88
Improvement +0.0 #183

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #338 D- C+ D C B-
Defense #149 C D B- C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #14 0.95 #359 -0.1 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.63 #340 -1.4 #254
Three Pointers 33% #334 0.95 #266 -5.3 #333
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #348 -6.8 #347
Freethrows 0.31 #147 72% #205 0.23 #159
Second Chance 32.0% #142 1.12 #82 0.36 #97
Turnovers 19.1% #330
Total Offense -6.9 #338

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #79 1.16 #186 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.66 #42 +2.5 #19
Three Pointers 42% #170 1.02 #180 -0.2 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #186 -0.2 #186
Freethrows 0.33 #279 72% #162 0.24 #267
Second Chance 32.7% #279 1.18 #328 0.39 #326
Turnovers 18.0% #79
Total Defense +0.5 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #102 1.7% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.3% #359 -1.3% #160
Possession Length 17.7 #202 16.3 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #198 0.21 #310
Improvement -2.0 #288 +2.0 #71

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.8% 37.2% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 86.1% 92.8% 73.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 96.9% 83.1%
Conference Champion 24.7% 33.2% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four24.6% 25.7% 22.6%
First Round20.8% 23.8% 15.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 02 - 4
Quad 414 - 916 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 56 Missouri L 67 - 88 11% -14  0 - 1 -14 -6 C- D- C -8 D F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 294 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 65% -1  0 - 2 -13 -0 B+ A F -13 D- F A
 Thu, Nov 13 350 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 80% +5  1 - 2 -7 -4 D A+ F -3 D A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 325 @Stetson L 60 - 64 53% -10  1 - 3 -11 -15 F F C+ +4 B C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 345 Niagara W 80 - 70 70% -4  2 - 3 -2 -4 F C F +2 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  2 - 4 -10 -4 F C A- -6 D- B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 295 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 42% -5  2 - 5 -8 +2 F A- A+ -10 F D- C
 Tue, Dec 9 289 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 53% +8  3 - 5 -3 -2 B+ F F -1 A F B
 Sat, Dec 13 237 Hampton W 61 - 57 42% +3  4 - 5 -0 -10 D F D+ +10 A+ B D+
 Tue, Dec 16 200 @Drexel W 74 - 66 25% +7  5 - 5 +9 +8 B- A- F +1 C- C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 115 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 12% +4  6 - 5 +7 -1 D B+ F +8 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 30 58 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 5% -5  6 - 6 -8 -2 C B- F -7 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 360 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 71% -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -13 -21 F C- F+ +8 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 331 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 55% +2  6 - 8 0 - 2 -20 -20 F D+ F +1 C- C+ B
 Mon, Jan 12 356 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 84% +14  7 - 8 1 - 2 +9 +16 C A+ A+ -4 C- F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 342 @NC Central W 83 - 69 59% +5  8 - 8 2 - 2 +5 +7 D A+ D -2 F B B
 Sat, Jan 24 355 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 84% +3  8 - 9 2 - 3 -18 -15 F A+ F -3 A F B
 Sat, Jan 31 296 Norfolk St. W 73 - 69 65%
 Mon, Feb 2 364 @Coppin St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 360 South Carolina St. W 79 - 67 86%
 Mon, Feb 9 73 Yale L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 62 75%
 Mon, Feb 16 356 @Delaware St. W 70 - 65 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 342 NC Central W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 @Morgan St. W 78 - 73 67%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 81 - 65 94%
 Thu, Mar 5 296 @Norfolk St. L 70 - 72 44%
Totals 15 - 12 9 - 5 -6 -7 D- C+ D +0 C D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.2 12.8 6.5 24.7 1st
2nd 0.1 3.7 15.5 7.2 0.7 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 11.1 6.7 0.4 19.6 3rd
4th 0.5 6.0 7.5 0.5 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.3 0.8 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.7 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.8 13.4 23.4 27.8 20.4 7.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 90.7% 6.5    4.9 1.6 0.0
10-4 62.8% 12.8    5.0 6.2 1.5 0.1
9-5 18.6% 5.2    0.3 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1
8-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 10.3 9.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 7.2% 54.0% 54.0% 15.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 3.3
10-4 20.4% 44.8% 44.8% 15.9 0.1 0.7 8.3 11.2
9-5 27.8% 35.4% 35.4% 16.0 0.2 9.6 18.0
8-6 23.4% 27.4% 27.4% 16.0 0.1 6.3 17.0
7-7 13.4% 23.4% 23.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1 10.3
6-8 5.8% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 1.1 4.7
5-9 1.7% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.3 1.4
4-10 0.4% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 33.8% 33.8% 0.0% 15.9 66.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 14.6 6.9 31.4 58.5 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%