Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 #219
Pace 70.4 #156
Improvement +3.5 #20

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #304 D C+ C D- B-
Defense #197 C C- D+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #27 0.93 #358 -0.9 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.70 #231 -0.6 #211
Three Pointers 34% #317 1.03 #154 -3.2 #284
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #298 -4.7 #298
Freethrows 18.6 #110 72% #187 13.4 #129
Second Chance 30.4% #188 1.04 #183 0.31 #178
Turnovers 19.2% #309
Total Offense -5.1 #304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.21 #238 -4.2 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #297 0.61 #29 +2.6 #28
Three Pointers 40% #223 0.99 #171 +1.1 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.5 #202
Freethrows 19.4 #288 69% #69 13.4 #246
Second Chance 33.1% #279 1.08 #228 0.36 #265
Turnovers 17.5% #138
Total Defense -0.9 #197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #100 1.9% #320
Shot Type Make Effect -10.4% #325 -0.9% #162
Possession Length 17.8 #239 16.4 #58
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #184 0.23 #323
Improvement +0.5 #145 +3.0 #21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.1% 39.3% 30.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 94.1% 96.6% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.4% 92.2%
Conference Champion 47.8% 54.2% 30.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four24.6% 24.7% 24.2%
First Round24.1% 26.5% 17.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 31 - 12 - 4
Quad 416 - 718 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 63 Missouri L 67-88 14%     -13.5   0 - 1 -15.2 -7.2 -7.4
  Sun, Nov 9 249 Grambling St. L 70-73 57%     -1.1   0 - 2 -10.9 +0.3 -11.4
  Thu, Nov 13 342 Alcorn St. W 72-64 80%     5.3   1 - 2 -6.9 -3.7 -2.8
  Wed, Nov 19 350 @Stetson L 60-64 64%     -9.7   1 - 3 -13.8 -16.0 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 22 352 Niagara W 80-70 76%     -4.0   2 - 3 -3.3 -4.0 -0.1
  Sun, Nov 23 7 @Duke L 56-93 1%     -28.8   2 - 4 -13.0 -5.7 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 29 291 @Mount St. Mary's L 75-79 42%     -5.1   2 - 5 -8.0 +1.6 -9.6
  Tue, Dec 9 308 N.C. A&T W 73-69 60%     7.6   3 - 5 -4.7 -1.9 -2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 242 Hampton W 61-57 45%     2.7   4 - 5 -0.7 -11.1 +10.6
  Tue, Dec 16 269 @Drexel W 74-66 39%     7.1   5 - 5 +4.9 +3.8 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 20 121 @UNC Wilmington W 67-66 14%     4.0   6 - 5 +6.9 -1.1 +7.9
  Tue, Dec 30 57 @Northwestern L 60-80 5%     -5.4   6 - 6 -7.7 -1.7 -7.9
  Sat, Jan 3 359 @South Carolina St. W 76-70 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 344 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-65 62%    
  Mon, Jan 12 346 Delaware St. W 72-63 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 349 @NC Central W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 360 Morgan St. W 81-69 88%    
  Mon, Jan 26 364 @Coppin St. W 78-66 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 261 Norfolk St. W 70-67 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 359 South Carolina St. W 79-67 87%    
  Mon, Feb 9 86 Yale L 71-81 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 344 Maryland Eastern Shore W 71-62 80%    
  Mon, Feb 16 346 @Delaware St. W 69-66 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 349 NC Central W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 360 @Morgan St. W 78-72 72%    
  Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 81-63 95%    
  Thu, Mar 5 261 @Norfolk St. L 67-70 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.7 13.7 14.9 9.1 2.4 47.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 8.3 11.8 6.7 1.3 29.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 2.5 0.4 5.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.7 9.2 14.8 19.8 20.5 16.2 9.1 2.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
13-1 100.0% 9.1    8.8 0.4
12-2 91.8% 14.9    12.1 2.8
11-3 66.9% 13.7    7.8 5.5 0.4
10-4 33.8% 6.7    2.1 3.5 1.1 0.0
9-5 6.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 47.8% 47.8 33.2 12.4 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.4% 62.6% 62.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.9
13-1 9.1% 58.8% 58.8% 15.6 0.2 1.7 3.5 3.8
12-2 16.2% 50.4% 50.4% 15.9 0.0 0.8 7.4 8.1
11-3 20.5% 41.1% 41.1% 16.0 0.3 8.1 12.1
10-4 19.8% 33.8% 33.8% 16.0 0.1 6.6 13.1
9-5 14.8% 27.0% 27.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0 10.8
8-6 9.2% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 1.8 7.3
7-7 4.7% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.7 4.0
6-8 2.1% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.3 1.8
5-9 0.9% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.1 0.8
4-10 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 37.1% 37.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.7 32.7 62.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.8 4.7 25.6 51.2 18.6