Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 238
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 268
Pace 71.5 103
Improvement +4.0 38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 318 D- B F+ B- B-
Defense C+ 128 C+ D B D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 11 F 47% 360 -0.2 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 211 D+ 35% 282 -1.1 240
Three Pointers 33% 326 C 33% 201 -4.2 317
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 71 F+ -6.1 348
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 332
Second Chance B- 34.1% 79 B- 1.09 86 B 0.37 67
Turnovers F+ 21.0% 352
Freethrows B- 0.34 90 C+ 74% 142 B- 0.25 88
Total Offense D -5.7 318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 58 C 57% 155 -2.5 264
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 338 A- 32% 11 +3.1 4
Three Pointers 42% 161 B- 32% 105 +0.7 152
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 348 B- -2.3 89
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 132
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 289 D+ 1.09 278 D 0.36 305
Turnovers B 19.3% 56
Freethrows D+ 0.34 292 C+ 71% 128 D+ 0.24 276
Total Defense C+ +1.4 128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 162 16.4 33
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 134 0.21 316
Improvement +1.1 #126 +3.0 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52% 53% 45%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 99% 99% 94%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 99%
Conference Champion 63% 68% 35%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four27% 26% 33%
First Round39% 41% 28%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 85.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 02 - 4
Quad 416 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 Missouri L 67 - 88 12% -14  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -8 C- D- C- D+ -4 D F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 285 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 71% -1  29% 0 - 2 D- -13 C- -1 A A+ F F -12 F F A
 Thu, Nov 13 351 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 86% +5  82% 1 - 2 D -8 F+ -9 D+ A+ F C+ +1 D+ A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 331 @Stetson L 60 - 64 64% -10  0% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -19 F F C B+ +7 B C+ A
 Sat, Nov 22 339 Niagara W 80 - 70 76% -4  21% 2 - 3 C- -2 D- -6 F+ B- F B- +4 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  0% 2 - 4 D -10 D- -6 F C+ B+ D+ -4 F+ B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 287 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 50% -5  0% 2 - 5 D -8 C- -1 F A A D -7 F D- D+
 Tue, Dec 9 286 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 61% +8  99% 3 - 5 C- -3 D+ -4 B+ F F C+ +1 A F B
 Sat, Dec 13 244 Hampton W 61 - 57 51% +3  77% 4 - 5 C -1 F -12 F+ F D A +12 A+ B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 228 @Drexel W 74 - 66 37% +7  95% 5 - 5 B- +7 B- +4 C+ A F B- +4 C- C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 112 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 16% +4  65% 6 - 5 B- +7 D+ -3 D+ B+ F A +10 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 30 64 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 8% -5  11% 6 - 6 D -9 D -5 C- B- F D -6 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 358 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 78% -7  1% 6 - 7 0 - 1 D- -13 F -22 F C- D A- +9 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 347 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 69% +2  62% 6 - 8 0 - 2 F -21 F -23 F C- F B- +2 D+ C+ B-
 Mon, Jan 12 359 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 90% +14  86% 7 - 8 1 - 2 B- +8 A +13 C+ A+ A C- -3 C- D- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 338 @NC Central W 83 - 69 67% +5  71% 8 - 8 2 - 2 B- +5 B- +4 D- A+ C- C+ +1 F+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 353 Morgan St. L 77 - 78 87% +3  76% 8 - 9 2 - 3 F -18 F -18 F A+ F C +0 A F B
 Sat, Jan 31 307 Norfolk St. W 88 - 60 76% +15  98% 9 - 9 3 - 3 A- +16 B+ +9 B A+ F B+ +7 B+ A- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 364 @Coppin St. W 72 - 53 87% +8  90% 10 - 9 4 - 3 C+ +2 C- -1 F+ A- F B +6 A- D D+
 Sat, Feb 7 358 South Carolina St. W 85 - 57 90% +15  98% 11 - 9 5 - 3 B +10 D+ -4 C+ C- F A +11 A- A- C+
 Mon, Feb 9 80 Yale L 81 - 87 OT 21% -2  28% 11 - 10 C- -2 C +1 C A- C C- -2 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 347 Maryland Eastern Shore W 71 - 60 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 359 @Delaware St. W 70 - 62 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 338 NC Central W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 73%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 81 - 63 96%
 Thu, Mar 5 307 @Norfolk St. W 71 - 70 56%
Totals 16 - 11 10 - 4 -4 F -6 D F+ B- C+ +1 C C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F D+ C F+ 47% 19% 33% B- D- B- B- B F+ B- C+ B- C+ C A- B- B- 43% 15% 42% D- C+ D+ D+ D B D+ C+ D+
1.00 47% 35% 33% -6 +1 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 21% .34 74% .25 1.07 57% 32% 32% -2 +1 0.99 33% 1.1 .36 19% .34 71% .24
Nov
3		 Missouri F+ F F A D 34% 15% 51% B+ C- D+ F+ D- C- C- D- D+ D+ B A+ F C- 57% 6% 37% F D F D F A- C- A+ A
0.93 33% 25% 41% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.7 .17 18% .27 69% .19 1.23 57% 0% 50% +6 +3 1.20 47% 1.3 .59 22% .38 48% .18
Nov
9		 Grambling St. C- D- A+ A+ A 50% 18% 33% C+ A A A- A+ F C+ A B F C+ A+ F F+ 48% 10% 43% F F F F F A D- B+ D+
1.08 50% 57% 54% +9 +1 1.23 43% 1.2 .52 29% .35 81% .28 1.13 55% 0% 44% +2 +2 1.10 37% 1.4 .52 26% .40 68% .27
Nov
13		 Alcorn St. F+ A D+ F C- 46% 27% 27% F+ D+ B- A+ A+ F B D- C+ C+ D B B C- 45% 19% 36% F+ D+ B A+ A+ D- C+ F D+
1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26 0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18
Nov
19		 Stetson F F F F F 40% 20% 40% C F C- F F C C B- C B+ A A- C+ B+ 37% 17% 46% D B A+ F C+ A F F+ F
0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21 0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40
Nov
22		 Niagara D- F A+ C- F 45% 12% 43% A- F+ C- B+ B- F A+ F A+ B- A- F A+ B- 60% 15% 26% F+ C F F F A+ F C+ F
1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50 0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37
Nov
23		 Duke D- F D- D+ F 39% 20% 41% B F D+ A+ C+ B+ A+ C+ A+ D+ F F B+ F+ 52% 2% 46% D- F+ A- D B- C- C- A B-
0.79 26% 30% 30% -16 0 0.69 19% 1.0 .19 17% .36 71% .26 1.32 85% 100% 30% +13 +3 1.34 33% 1.3 .44 16% .37 64% .23
Nov
29		 Mount St. Mary's C- F+ C- F F 33% 28% 40% D F C- A+ A A C D+ C- D D A+ F F 51% 14% 35% D F C F D- D+ C+ F D+
1.06 47% 38% 22% -11 -1 0.78 28% 1.5 .43 8% .32 71% .23 1.12 64% 14% 47% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.3 .36 21% .29 81% .23
Dec
9		 N.C. A&T D+ D- A+ A+ B- 64% 9% 27% A+ B+ A- F F F A+ C- A+ C+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 40% 32% 28% C A F F+ F B A C+ A
1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35 1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21
Dec
13		 Hampton F D+ F F F 66% 7% 27% A+ F+ D- F F D A+ D A+ A B A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F A+ C A B+ C- F B- F
0.90 59% 0% 17% -9 +4 0.91 23% 0.1 .03 19% .60 64% .38 0.84 50% 14% 6% -24 +1 0.55 33% 0.7 .24 18% .77 70% .54
Dec
16		 Drexel B- F+ F A+ C 60% 17% 24% A C+ B+ A- A F A+ A+ A+ B- F A- C D+ 18% 16% 66% B C- A+ F C+ B- F B F+
1.11 48% 29% 50% -2 +2 1.02 38% 1.2 .46 24% .49 92% .45 0.99 75% 29% 34% +2 -1 1.05 21% 1.1 .24 21% .36 63% .23
Dec
20		 UNC Wilmington D+ D F A+ C- 33% 39% 27% F+ D+ A- C B+ F D+ A+ C A C A- A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% C+ A+ D- F+ F A- C- C C-
1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19 0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26
Dec
30		 Northwestern D F C+ B- C 30% 28% 43% D C- B- B- B- F D+ F D- D F A+ F F 41% 25% 34% C+ F F+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F
0.94 43% 38% 35% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.0 .34 22% .26 62% .16 1.26 83% 27% 40% +11 0 1.23 36% 0.5 .19 8% .58 65% .38
Jan
3		 South Carolina St. F F F+ F F 50% 7% 43% B F F A+ C- D A+ F A A- C- D+ A C 30% 41% 30% B- C D F F A+ F F+ F
0.82 41% 33% 16% -21 +3 0.66 26% 1.8 .45 19% .58 64% .37 0.83 55% 40% 27% -3 -3 0.89 33% 1.3 .44 30% .41 70% .29
Jan
10		 Maryland Eastern Shore F F F C F 54% 16% 30% B+ F D+ C+ C- F F F F B- B- A+ F+ C 46% 13% 41% F D+ A+ F C+ B- F F F
0.77 44% 0% 33% -14 +2 0.78 28% 1.2 .33 30% .21 64% .14 0.93 52% 17% 37% -4 +1 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 24% .39 82% .32
Jan
12		 Delaware St. A A+ F F C+ 60% 18% 22% B C+ A+ C- A+ A A+ A A+ C- A+ B D C- 27% 32% 41% C C- D D- D- B+ F F F
1.31 81% 13% 20% +5 +2 1.16 48% 1.1 .52 14% .49 78% .38 0.91 36% 31% 35% -7 -2 0.83 29% 0.9 .26 23% .43 76% .33
Jan
17		 NC Central B- C+ A F F 48% 12% 40% B+ D- A- A A+ C- D- C+ D C+ B F D+ D- 41% 12% 47% F+ F+ C- A B- B B A+ A
1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20 1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16
Jan
24		 Morgan St. F F F+ F F 51% 24% 25% D F A+ C A+ F A+ A A+ C A+ B+ C- A+ 48% 22% 30% F A F F F B F D- F
0.95 32% 31% 14% -22 +1 0.58 53% 1.2 .66 21% .63 80% .50 0.96 28% 31% 33% -17 +1 0.70 40% 1.4 .58 21% .45 79% .36
Jan
31		 Norfolk St. B+ D+ F A+ B- 50% 9% 41% B+ B A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ A A+ D A 51% 16% 33% F B+ A- A A- C+ D- F+ F+
1.26 59% 25% 44% +6 +2 1.18 59% 1.3 .77 27% .57 86% .49 0.86 40% 13% 38% -12 +1 0.82 24% 0.8 .18 20% .39 73% .29
Feb
2		 Coppin St. C- D C+ D+ F 38% 12% 50% B- F+ A C A- F A- C A- B C+ C+ A+ A 41% 26% 33% D+ A- F A D D+ D A C
1.17 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 47% 1.1 .53 23% .44 76% .33 0.86 53% 33% 13% -14 0 0.74 44% 0.8 .33 21% .37 61% .23
Feb
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F+ A+ A+ C 66% 7% 27% A C+ D B- C- F A+ B+ A+ A B A+ A A+ 37% 21% 42% F A- B- A+ A- C+ C- A+ B
1.13 52% 100% 42% +3 +4 1.16 34% 1.3 .45 21% .61 78% .47 0.76 47% 18% 27% -12 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 23% .33 53% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Yale C F A+ A+ C- 47% 16% 37% B+ C C- A+ A- C B- D+ C+ C- C- A- A A+ 49% 13% 38% D- A- F C- F A+ F B- F
1.12 29% 75% 47% 0 +1 1.04 28% 1.5 .42 15% .31 68% .21 1.21 59% 33% 29% -3 +2 1.00 49% 1.2 .60 21% .60 74% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 7.4 31.4 23.9 62.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 14.0 6.6 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.7 4.5 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.2 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 0.3 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 2.2 9.7 26.0 38.1 23.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 23.9    21.2 2.6
10-4 82.4% 31.4    14.7 13.9 2.7 0.0
9-5 28.4% 7.4    0.4 2.0 3.4 1.5 0.1
8-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 62.7% 62.7 36.3 18.6 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 23.9% 62.6% 62.6% 15.3 0.0 1.2 7.5 6.2 8.9
10-4 38.1% 54.7% 54.7% 15.9 0.0 1.5 19.3 17.2
9-5 26.0% 44.7% 44.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.3 14.4
8-6 9.7% 39.1% 39.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7 5.9
7-7 2.2% 30.2% 30.2% 16.0 0.7 1.5
6-8 0.2% 34.2% 34.2% 16.0 0.1 0.1
5-9 0.0% 0.0
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 51.9% 51.9% 0.0% 15.8 48.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.9% 100.0% 15.3 0.2 7.7 50.3 41.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.0%