Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#236
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#319
Pace63.1#333
Improvement+0.3#162

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#275
First Shot-5.1#320
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#91
Layup/Dunks-0.7#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+1.4#80

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot-2.8#272
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#36
Layups/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
Freethrows-4.3#356
Improvement-1.1#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 7.4% 12.8% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 34.6% 14.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 22.4% 12.5% 29.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 34 - 95 - 13
Quad 45 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 230 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 61%     1 - 0 -0.2 +4.3 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 19 190 South Alabama L 65-71 52%     1 - 1 -10.9 -5.7 -5.6
  Mon, Nov 24 136 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 19%     1 - 2 -6.3 -11.6 +5.9
  Wed, Nov 26 155 North Dakota St. L 43-56 32%     1 - 3 -12.6 -24.2 +9.9
  Mon, Dec 1 244 North Alabama L 66-73 63%     1 - 4 -14.8 -6.2 -9.1
  Sat, Dec 13 330 @Georgia St. L 73-77 60%     1 - 5 -11.1 +3.3 -14.6
  Wed, Dec 17 259 Eastern Kentucky L 59-62 65%     1 - 6 -11.4 -12.8 +1.0
  Sat, Dec 20 141 @East Tennessee St. W 81-75 20%     2 - 6 +10.3 +19.7 -8.6
  Mon, Dec 29 145 Western Kentucky L 71-74 41%    
  Fri, Jan 2 284 @Delaware L 65-66 46%    
  Sun, Jan 4 102 @Liberty L 61-73 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 182 Florida International W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 152 @Kennesaw St. L 70-78 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 122 Sam Houston St. L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 187 Louisiana Tech W 62-61 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 158 Middle Tennessee L 67-69 44%    
  Wed, Jan 28 182 @Florida International L 69-75 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 254 @Missouri St. L 63-65 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 145 @Western Kentucky L 68-77 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 152 Kennesaw St. L 73-75 44%    
  Wed, Feb 11 202 UTEP W 65-64 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 127 New Mexico St. L 64-68 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 187 @Louisiana Tech L 59-65 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 122 @Sam Houston St. L 68-78 19%    
  Thu, Feb 26 284 Delaware W 68-63 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 102 Liberty L 64-70 29%    
  Thu, Mar 5 127 @New Mexico St. L 61-71 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 202 @UTEP L 62-67 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.7 4.7 1.2 0.1 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 5.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 15.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.9 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 14.4 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.2 8.1 11.0 12.7 13.6 12.3 10.9 8.2 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 87.5% 0.0    0.0
16-4 77.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 55.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 24.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 27.0% 27.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 12.8% 12.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.3% 8.4% 8.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.3% 7.5% 7.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-8 4.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.7
11-9 5.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.7
10-10 8.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.1 8.0
9-11 10.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
8-12 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-13 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
6-14 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-15 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-16 8.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.1
3-17 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%