Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.3 200
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 226
Pace 63.4 320
Improvement +3.7 55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 240 C- C- C- B- B+
Defense C 166 C C+ C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 8 D- 51% 328 +2.0 106
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 245 D 33% 320 -3.1 326
Three Pointers 38% 235 B- 36% 104 -0.3 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 23 D+ -2.7 279
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 214
Second Chance C- 29.2% 219 C- 0.99 233 C- 0.29 229
Turnovers C- 17.5% 232
Freethrows B 0.35 42 D- 68% 321 B- 0.24 117
Total Offense C- -2.5 240

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 340 C 10.8% 163
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 125 C- 5.8% 239
Three Pointers C- 82% 233 C 0.9% 196
Total D 50% 306 C- 6.3% 256

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 C+ 56% 142 -0.7 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 317 C 38% 191 -1.7 53
Three Pointers 46% 49 C 34% 157 +2.1 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 269 C+ -0.8 145
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 167
Second Chance B- 28.4% 99 C- 1.06 234 C+ 0.30 147
Turnovers C 16.5% 196
Freethrows C- 0.33 249 F 77% 357 D 0.25 303
Total Defense C +0.2 166

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 153 C 11.3% 164
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 237 D+ 3.4% 267
Three Pointers C 84% 183 D 0.2% 327
Total C- 58% 226 C- 5.0% 226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 304 17.4 203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 196 0.18 221
Improvement +2.4 #80 +1.2 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 235 198 162
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 8% 21% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 68% 94% 62%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 21.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 75 - 10
Quad 48 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 238 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 68% +7  80% 1 - 0 C -0 C +1 C- A- C+ C -1 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 19 188 South Alabama L 65 - 71 60% +6  81% 1 - 1 D -11 F+ -9 C- D- C- C- -3 C- C D
 Mon, Nov 24 140 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 27% -7  13% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -13 F F+ F A- +7 B- A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 132 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 35% -10  13% 1 - 3 D- -11 F -27 F D- F A+ +14 C+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 340 North Alabama L 66 - 73 88% +2  61% 1 - 4 F -22 F -14 F B- C+ F+ -9 C+ D F+
 Sat, Dec 13 283 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 57% -5  5% 1 - 5 D -8 C+ +2 F+ B+ A+ F -11 D D F
 Wed, Dec 17 278 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 76% -5  3% 1 - 6 D- -13 F -18 F F C B +5 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 131 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 25% +1  46% 2 - 6 B +11 A+ +19 A+ C+ C D- -7 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 168 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 55% +12  89% 3 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 C+ +4 A+ F F B +4 A- B B-
 Fri, Jan 2 263 @Delaware W 67 - 64 51% +4  86% 4 - 6 2 - 0 C +0 C +1 C C+ F C -0 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 100 @Liberty L 69 - 78 16% -4  23% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C -1 C +1 D- C+ A- D+ -3 A+ F+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 185 Florida International W 71 - 64 59% +1  56% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C- -0 A- A- F B- +3 C+ A C+
 Sat, Jan 10 165 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 31% -5  2% 5 - 8 3 - 2 C- -3 C+ +3 A C- C- D- -7 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 114 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 41% -7  1% 5 - 9 3 - 3 F+ -15 D- -6 D D+ B F -11 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 218 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 65% +10  98% 6 - 9 4 - 3 C- -2 C+ +2 C+ C- C- C- -3 B- F D+
 Fri, Jan 23 171 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 55% +9  95% 7 - 9 5 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 A F C A- +7 A C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 185 @Florida International W 78 - 74 36% -4  17% 8 - 9 6 - 3 B- +5 D -6 C+ F C A +11 C+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 202 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 39% -7  6% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 D- -7 F A F C -0 D+ D- C
 Thu, Feb 5 168 @Western Kentucky W 71 - 66 32% +1  52% 9 - 10 7 - 4 B- +7 D+ -3 F A- F A +11 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 58 54% +11  92% 10 - 10 8 - 4 A- +16 C+ +3 B C C+ A+ +14 A+ C- C
 Wed, Feb 11 246 UTEP L 64 - 69 69% -0  46% 10 - 11 8 - 5 D- -13 D+ -3 A- D+ F+ F -11 F B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 157 New Mexico St. L 70 - 79 53% -5  12% 10 - 12 8 - 6 D- -12 D+ -4 F C A+ F+ -9 B- F D
 Wed, Feb 18 218 @Louisiana Tech L 71 - 77 42% -11  0% 10 - 13 8 - 7 D+ -6 C- -1 B F C+ D -5 F B B+
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 77 21%
 Thu, Feb 26 263 Delaware W 69 - 63 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 100 Liberty L 68 - 72 34%
 Thu, Mar 5 157 @New Mexico St. L 67 - 72 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 246 @UTEP L 65 - 66 47%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -2 C- -3 C- D+ B+ C +0 B- D- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- D B- D+ 47% 32% 38% B+ C- C- C- C- C- B D- B- C C+ C C C+ 38% 16% 46% D+ C B- C- C+ C C- F D
1.05 51% 33% 36% -3 +1 0.99 29% 1.0 .29 18% .35 68% .24 1.08 56% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.01 28% 1.1 .30 17% .33 77% .27
Nov
14		 Coastal Carolina C D- F B D- 47% 14% 39% A+ C- D+ A+ A- C+ A C- A- C B+ F+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ D- F F F+ C- F F
1.11 48% 14% 37% -7 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27 1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26
Nov
19		 South Alabama F+ F D B- D+ 33% 5% 62% B C- D D D- C- F F F C- B F A- C 57% 19% 23% D C- B+ F C D F B- D-
0.98 44% 33% 35% -3 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02 1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25
Nov
24		 Arkansas St. F F A+ F F 38% 16% 46% B F B- F F+ F A+ F+ A+ A- B A+ C- B 39% 8% 53% D- B- A+ C A+ B- F D- F
0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33 1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40
Nov
26		 North Dakota St. F F F F F 29% 29% 43% F+ F C F D- F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ F C 23% 34% 43% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ C
0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28 0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19
Dec
1		 North Alabama F F F D+ F 46% 8% 46% B F D+ A+ B- C+ A- F F+ F+ A- D B B 52% 10% 38% F C+ C- D D F+ C F D
1.00 41% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16 1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Georgia St. C+ F F B F 54% 10% 37% A F+ C- A+ B+ A+ B- F D- F A+ F D+ D- 21% 26% 53% C D C- F+ D F F F+ F
1.11 43% 20% 37% -8 +3 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 6% .32 50% .16 1.17 33% 45% 35% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.2 .34 11% .54 84% .46
Dec
17		 Eastern Kentucky F F B+ F F 48% 14% 38% B+ F D+ F F C A+ B- A+ B A+ B D+ A 31% 13% 56% F B+ F C+ D- A+ B F C-
0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36 0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19
Dec
20		 East Tennessee St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A- A+ A+ F C+ C A+ F A+ D- B F F F 39% 21% 39% B- F A- D+ B B- F D+ F
1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36 1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45
Dec
29		 Western Kentucky C+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 3% 51% A+ A+ F F F F A+ C- A+ B A A- A A 31% 13% 56% C- A- F A+ B B- D- A C-
1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52 0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24
Jan
2		 Delaware C D+ F C- D 51% 3% 46% A+ C D A+ C+ F A+ F A+ C D F C- D+ 28% 10% 62% D D C+ A+ A F A+ F A+
1.11 55% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.03 26% 1.3 .33 18% .53 69% .37 1.06 64% 60% 35% +5 +1 1.14 19% 0.3 .06 13% .12 83% .10
Jan
4		 Liberty C D- F D F 51% 10% 39% A D- B- C- C+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% D+ A+ F B F+ D F F F
1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31 1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39
Jan
7		 Florida International C- C- A A+ B+ 44% 10% 46% B A- B- A- A- F A+ B- A+ B- C- F+ A+ C 46% 23% 31% C+ C+ A+ F+ A C+ D- F F
1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31 0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30
Jan
10		 Kennesaw St. C+ C- A+ A+ A- 55% 4% 40% A+ A C+ D C- C- B F D+ D- C+ A C- C 48% 9% 43% D- C- C+ F F D- F D F
1.13 54% 50% 47% +6 +3 1.21 31% 0.9 .28 17% .45 63% .28 1.21 55% 25% 35% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 14% .54 74% .40
Jan
14		 Sam Houston St. D- F A+ F+ D- 47% 13% 40% A- D C- D- D+ B B F+ C F F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% F F B+ F D+ B A+ C A+
1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23 1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10
Jan
17		 Louisiana Tech C+ D+ F A C 45% 9% 45% A- C+ D+ C+ C- C- B+ B+ A C- B+ F+ A C+ 40% 31% 29% B+ B- F D+ F D+ C+ F F
1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30 1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25
Jan
23		 Middle Tennessee B+ D- F A+ A 60% 9% 32% A+ A C F F C B+ A A A- A+ F B+ A+ 40% 17% 43% D- A C+ C C+ D- C- A+ B-
1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31 0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15
Jan
28		 Florida International D A- F F C- 62% 8% 30% A+ C+ F C- F C A+ D A+ A C D+ A- B- 50% 10% 40% F C+ A+ C+ A A+ D- D D-
0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34 0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26
Jan
31		 Missouri St. D- B B F D- 24% 50% 26% F F A+ D A F A+ B A+ C F C+ C+ D- 21% 32% 47% A- D+ D D- D- C D+ A B-
0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42 1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21
Feb
5		 Western Kentucky D+ F A F F 56% 26% 18% B+ F A- B A- F A+ C+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ A- 26% 22% 52% A- A- B+ A+ A+ C- F F F
0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65 0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34
Feb
7		 Kennesaw St. C+ C- C+ A B 41% 11% 48% B- B C C C C+ C+ D C A+ A B- A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% C+ A+ B+ F C- C C+ C+ C+
1.16 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 15% .43 71% .30 0.88 44% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.71 30% 1.2 .36 17% .34 68% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 UTEP D+ C+ D- A+ A- 37% 22% 41% C A- D+ C- D+ F+ F+ F F F C- F+ F F 24% 17% 59% F+ F C+ A+ B+ B- F D- F
1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17 1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 New Mexico St. D+ F F D- F 43% 16% 41% B+ F F+ A+ C A+ F+ F F F+ C A+ B- B+ 42% 9% 49% F B- B+ F F D F F F
1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21 1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45
Feb
18		 Louisiana Tech C- F D A+ B+ 36% 19% 45% C- B F F+ F C+ B+ F C+ D F A F+ F 50% 15% 35% F F A D+ B B+ F+ B+ D+
1.01 41% 33% 48% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 17% .38 64% .24 1.10 83% 29% 38% +13 +2 1.30 26% 0.9 .22 21% .34 58% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.6 1.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.8 15.8 5.1 0.2 28.0 3rd
4th 1.0 15.4 6.4 0.2 23.0 4th
5th 6.5 10.7 0.8 0.0 18.0 5th
6th 0.1 11.0 2.3 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 1.2 5.9 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 2.8 0.8 3.6 8th
9th 1.9 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.4 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.3 25.3 35.4 23.9 7.9 1.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.2% 8.8% 8.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.3
11-9 23.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.4 0.0 0.9 0.5 22.5
10-10 35.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.2 1.1 34.1
9-11 25.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 24.9
8-12 6.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.4 96.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.4 3.1 56.3 40.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 3.6%