Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#257
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#287
Pace63.7#298
Improvement+0.2#164

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#245
First Shot-2.8#271
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#133
Layup/Dunks-5.6#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#35
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement-0.1#221

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#260
First Shot-3.3#285
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#145
Layups/Dunks+4.1#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#353
Freethrows-0.3#211
Improvement+0.3#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 2.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.1% 11.1% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 3.6% 14.4%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 52 - 11
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 264   @ Illinois-Chicago L 60-67 41%     0 - 1 -9.8 -17.9 +8.8
  Nov 18, 2022 2   @ Alabama L 62-104 1%     0 - 2 -20.2 +1.3 -21.9
  Nov 22, 2022 334   Elon W 78-53 78%     1 - 2 +11.9 +4.3 +9.3
  Nov 25, 2022 54   @ New Mexico L 61-79 6%     1 - 3 -5.7 -7.4 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2022 268   Northern Colorado L 82-86 OT 52%     1 - 4 -9.6 -0.8 -8.6
  Nov 27, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 81-71 47%     2 - 4 +5.8 +6.2 -0.2
  Dec 03, 2022 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 63-61 32%     3 - 4 +1.8 +0.3 +1.7
  Dec 08, 2022 51   @ Utah L 58-99 6%     3 - 5 -28.4 -4.7 -25.0
  Dec 17, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-62 77%     4 - 5 -2.9 -6.3 +3.8
  Dec 21, 2022 182   @ South Alabama L 66-71 24%     4 - 6 -2.8 +4.0 -7.5
  Dec 30, 2022 291   North Alabama L 62-66 67%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -13.6 -13.2 -0.7
  Jan 02, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 46-62 27%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -14.7 -12.9 -6.2
  Jan 05, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 41-75 8%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -23.1 -22.9 -2.2
  Jan 07, 2023 253   Bellarmine L 62-75 59%     4 - 10 0 - 4 -20.5 -6.1 -16.4
  Jan 12, 2023 282   North Florida W 72-63 66%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -0.3 -3.1 +3.6
  Jan 14, 2023 197   Jacksonville L 62-68 46%     5 - 11 1 - 5 -10.1 +2.0 -13.5
  Jan 19, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 51-55 23%     5 - 12 1 - 6 -1.2 -15.8 +14.1
  Jan 21, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 81-87 27%     5 - 13 1 - 7 -4.7 +4.9 -9.7
  Jan 26, 2023 194   Lipscomb W 72-67 46%     6 - 13 2 - 7 +1.0 +4.0 -2.5
  Jan 28, 2023 315   Austin Peay W 70-53 71%     7 - 13 3 - 7 +6.1 +0.6 +7.3
  Feb 02, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 04, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine L 62-65 37%    
  Feb 09, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 65-74 20%    
  Feb 16, 2023 221   Queens W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 70   Liberty L 58-69 17%    
  Feb 22, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 24, 2023 291   @ North Alabama L 71-72 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 1.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 0.6 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 5.5 3.4 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.2 4.7 9.1 0.9 14.9 10th
11th 0.4 5.8 14.1 4.2 0.1 24.6 11th
12th 0.1 4.0 13.0 7.2 0.5 24.8 12th
13th 1.1 6.0 4.3 0.4 11.8 13th
14th 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 14th
Total 2.8 12.0 23.5 26.8 20.2 10.5 3.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 3.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
8-10 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.3
7-11 20.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 20.1
6-12 26.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 26.6
5-13 23.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.4
4-14 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
3-15 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 4.0% 15.0 4.0
Lose Out 2.8% 0.3% 16.0 0.3