Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#164
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#231
Pace64.8#285
Improvement-0.5#229

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#176
First Shot+1.2#145
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#243
Layup/Dunks-2.3#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#18
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement+2.0#35

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#171
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#312
Layups/Dunks+1.6#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-2.5#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 24.3% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 76.8% 90.5% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 93.7% 88.7%
Conference Champion 23.4% 30.7% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four3.5% 1.9% 3.8%
First Round18.3% 23.6% 17.0%
Second Round1.3% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 413 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 54   @ Wichita St. L 57-60 15%     0 - 1 +8.5 +0.7 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2021 341   Alabama A&M W 70-47 93%     1 - 1 +6.8 -3.8 +12.1
  Nov 16, 2021 262   @ Troy L 65-69 3OT 60%     1 - 2 -6.3 -21.7 +16.3
  Nov 22, 2021 182   Valparaiso L 70-78 54%     1 - 3 -8.8 -2.4 -6.4
  Nov 24, 2021 161   Drexel W 72-64 49%     2 - 3 +8.5 +3.1 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2021 289   @ Elon W 93-81 66%     3 - 3 +8.0 +15.2 -7.3
  Dec 04, 2021 122   South Alabama L 64-74 51%     3 - 4 -10.0 -6.9 -3.3
  Dec 08, 2021 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-66 20%    
  Dec 15, 2021 215   Florida International W 68-63 69%    
  Dec 18, 2021 10   @ Alabama L 64-84 3%    
  Dec 21, 2021 288   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 04, 2022 195   Bellarmine W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 08, 2022 311   @ North Alabama W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 11, 2022 239   Lipscomb W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 163   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 18, 2022 338   @ Central Arkansas W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 22, 2022 213   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 27, 2022 283   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 134   @ Liberty L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 03, 2022 308   North Florida W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 251   Jacksonville W 66-58 76%    
  Feb 09, 2022 275   @ Stetson W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 12, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 81-65 92%    
  Feb 16, 2022 239   @ Lipscomb W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 195   @ Bellarmine L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 23, 2022 163   Eastern Kentucky W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 311   North Alabama W 74-62 85%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.6 7.5 6.3 3.0 0.7 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.9 8.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.5 7.2 2.6 0.2 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.1 2.2 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.0 2.2 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.3 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.4 8.3 12.0 15.4 16.5 15.3 11.4 7.0 3.0 0.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 99.1% 3.0    2.8 0.2
14-2 90.5% 6.3    5.0 1.3 0.1
13-3 66.4% 7.5    4.1 2.9 0.6 0.0
12-4 30.3% 4.6    1.2 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
11-5 6.9% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 13.9 6.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 52.7% 52.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.0% 43.1% 43.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7
14-2 7.0% 37.5% 37.5% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 4.4
13-3 11.4% 30.2% 30.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 7.9
12-4 15.3% 25.2% 25.2% 15.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.5 11.4
11-5 16.5% 19.5% 19.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 13.3
10-6 15.4% 14.1% 14.1% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 13.2
9-7 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 15.9 0.2 1.2 10.6
8-8 8.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 7.6
7-9 5.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.0
6-10 2.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.7
5-11 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-12 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 7.1 8.2 80.4 0.0%